Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is almost here, and ESPN has released their Commanders 2025 rankings and projections. Commanders fans know the drill — it’s time to cautiously manage hope while secretly believing this could be the year.
What better way to fuel eternal optimism than with a breakdown of ESPN’s predictions and projections? When the season kicks off Thursday — where will the Burgundy and Gold stack up in the power rankings. Do Washington finally have an offense that can put up points? Can the defense stop someone when it matters? What’s the schedule like? Are there Super Bowl LX possibilities?
Commanders Football Power Index
According to ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) is a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”
The Commanders were ranked eighth. Their overall FPI was 2.4. The FPI is arrived at by measuring team’s strength on a net points scale. In other words, the expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field.
Breaking it down further, the offense was a 2.7 and ranked sixth overall. The defense didn’t fare anywhere near as well and was ranked 16th at -0.2. Special Teams ranked even lower at 22nd (-0.1).
Team-By-Team Rankings
The Commanders were given the 11th overall ranking. According to ESPN:
Second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels appears to be the real deal and can carry this team far, especially with more veterans on offense, such as left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The defense remains a major red flag, but defensive mastermind Dan Quinn could again coach it into a competent unit.
Other Top Rankings
Highest Scoring – the Buffalo Bills were ranked first overall in highest scoring with a predicted point total of 481.
“The Bills haven’t led the NFL in scoring since 1990, but they’ve been close during the Josh Allen era, ranking no lower than sixth each of the past five seasons (top-three four times).”
Lowest Scoring – the Cleveland Browns were ranked last in scoring with a predicted point total of 299.
“The Browns were last in scoring in 2024 and haven’t finished better than 10th since 2007. They should be a strong bet to finish at or near the bottom in 2025, especially with so much uncertainty at quarterback.”
Fewest Points Allowed – the Houston Texans with 355.
“Though the Texans ranked in the middle of the pack in points allowed last season, their defense finished top five in sacks (49) and forced turnovers (29). They were also first in pass rush win rate (48.7%).”
Most Points Allowed – the Dallas Cowboys with 439.
“The Cowboys allowed the second-most points last season, and that was with Micah Parsons for 13 games. Parsons was traded to Green Bay on Thursday for defensive tackle Kenny Clark and two first-round picks. Linebacker Eric Kendricks, nickel corner Jourdan Lewis and edge rusher Chauncey Golston are also gone.”
The Bottom Line
ESPN’s projections paint a picture of cautious optimism for the 2025 Commanders. Ranking 11th overall with Jayden Daniels leading what could be a top-six offense is exactly the kind of hope embraced carefully in Washington. The addition of veterans like Tunsil and Samuel suggests the front office is serious about surrounding the young quarterback with talent. Since 2022, Tunsil has allowed a 3.1% pressure rate, which ranks third best among offensive tackles.
Unfortunately that 16th-ranked defense and Dan Quinn’s challenge to turn it into something “competent” will likely determine whether Washington fans are watching meaningful January football or planning our offseason again. Will not finding a bona fide edge solution cost them? Can Von Miller fill that void?
The gap between the Commanders offensive potential and defensive reality may very well end up being the story of this season.
It’s almost time to find out if 2025 is different.
What do you think the Commanders ranking should be to start the season?
Hail.