Forbath Out?

[oj]

I wonder where Scott is on this. We aren't going to get a better FG kicker at this point in the season, we might get a longer kicker for kickoffs. Thats not much of a tradeoff. I'd say keep Kai and get a kickoff guy.
Or keep Kai and learn to tackle on Special Teams.

[SkinsJock]

Scot's job is to get the players that the coaches need to get the job done ...

[HEROHAMO]

I agree with most. This was stupid to release one of our proven guys.
If this was Gruden its even more proof how stupid this head coach is.

I have to think that both Scott and Gruden were in on this. Probably the one move I did not like that Scott made.

[cowboykillerzRGiii]

Maybe Kai was talkin craps about Grudens play calling g, and got the ax?! LOL

Sucks we let Hocker walk just to end up here a year later; when, by all accounts, he beat Kai in every department. THAT is on Gruden IMO

[riggofan]

Scot's job is to get the players that the coaches need to get the job done ...

I'm going with you on this one, SJ. Its hard to see this as a good move on face value. But I expect McCloughan has weighed the risks of Forbath's accuracy (which is good not great) against his kickoffs which were 31st in the league for touchbacks.

[markshark84]

Maybe Kai was talkin craps about Grudens play calling g, and got the ax?! LOL

Sucks we let Hocker walk just to end up here a year later; when, by all accounts, he beat Kai in every department. THAT is on Gruden IMO

Honest question --- who selected the team last year? Was it Gruden or a combination of Gruden, Allen, & Snyder?

I was always under the impression that GMs have an equal say in who makes the roster, but not on who plays. I could very well be wrong. Now last year we didn't have a GM, but we had those two idiots.... and I'm sure they stuck their nose in quite often last year.

[SkinsJock]

Scot's job is to get the players that the coaches need to get the job done ...

I'm going with you on this one, SJ. Its hard to see this as a good move on face value. But I expect McCloughan has weighed the risks of Forbath's accuracy (which is good not great) against his kickoffs which were 31st in the league for touchbacks.

+1 - while Forbath had a good FG %, he was not going to get many chances at a long field goal because of his leg strength

I don't like the move ... PLUS, I really thought that they were going to go with Hocker - not good

[PulpExposure]

Decent article by Tandler on this. Worth the read. Some excerpts:

But Forbath’s field goal accuracy came at a cost. Forbath has struggled with his kickoffs during his NFL career. Last year he was 31st in the league in both percentage of kicks that went for touchbacks and average net kickoff distance.

“We were looking for a little bit of a stronger leg, especially on kickoffs,” he said. “That’s the bottom line.”

But is Gruden potentially trading points for touchbacks? While we don’t know how new kicker Dustin Hopkins will do since he has no regular season NFL experience, if he can kick touchbacks consistently, the Redskins could be ahead of the game if he is even a below-average field goal kicker.

First of all, let’s dispose of the notion that Forbath is one of the most accurate field goal kickers in the game. Last year he was ninth in the NFL among kickers who had enough attempts (16) to qualify. He was good on 24 of 27 attempts, 88.9 percent. That’s fine, but not great (six kickers were over 90 percent) and, really, not very significant. Here’s why.

Let’s look at the Rams’ Greg Zuerlein, who ranked 26th with a field goals success percentage of 80.0. Is Forbath a better field goal kicker? Well, if Zuerlein had the same number of attempts as Forbath last year, he would have made 22, two fewer than Forbath. Depending on when those missed field goals happened, they could have been costly.

But if you look closer, you’ll see that Zuerlein attempted seven field goals of 50 yards or longer and made five of them. Forbath had zero attempts from 50 or longer. So two of Zurlein’s misses came on kicks that Forbath didn’t even attempt, presumably because they were out of his range. In the third quarter against the Dolphins, the Redskins were up 10-7 and had a fourth down at the Miami 36. With Forbath as their kicker, they punted and got a touchback. With a kicker with a stronger leg like Zuerlein they could have tried a 54-yard field goal and would have had about a 71 percent chance of taking a 13-7 lead that would have changed the complexion of the rest of the game.

Let’s look at the factor that Gruden cited, kickoffs. Last year Forbath had a net kickoff average (gross yards minus return yards and touchbacks X 20 yards) of 40.7 yards. Zuerlein’s average was 44.6. Rounding to the nearest yard line, an average Forbath kickoff ended with the other team taking possession at the 24 while Zuerlein’s ended up at the 20. Big deal? On one individual kick, maybe not. Over the course of a season it adds up.

According to some numbers crunchers who are much smarter than I am, a team that starts a drive that starts on the 24 has a 17.6 percent chance of scoring a touchdown and a 10.9 percent chance of making a field goal. For a team starting on the 20, the TD chances are 16.4 percent and 10.1 for a field goal. The average NFL team kicked off 81 times last year. So on average, following kickoffs the team that kicks to the 24 will allow 14 touchdowns and nine field goals while the team that kicks to the 20 will allow 13 TDs and eight field goals.

You don’t have to be a genius numbers cruncher to figure out that the defense giving up 10 fewer points with a kicker like Zuerlein slightly more than compensates for the six points lose being less “accurate” in field goals than Forbath. If you add in the chance that Zuerlein gives the team to score on an attempt from over 50 yards out the advantage goes to the less “accurate” kicker with the stronger leg.

Looking at it right now, we don’t know if Hopkins will miss a makeable field goal in a clutch situation. But in the big picture, if he can hit on 80 percent of his field goals, give the Redskins a chance to score when they get inside the opponent’s 40, and have opponents starting drives at the 20 more often than not, the move could end up being a net plus for Gruden and the Redskins.

[DEHog]

Decent article by Tandler on this. Worth the read. Some excerpts:

But Forbath’s field goal accuracy came at a cost. Forbath has struggled with his kickoffs during his NFL career. Last year he was 31st in the league in both percentage of kicks that went for touchbacks and average net kickoff distance.

“We were looking for a little bit of a stronger leg, especially on kickoffs,” he said. “That’s the bottom line.”

But is Gruden potentially trading points for touchbacks? While we don’t know how new kicker Dustin Hopkins will do since he has no regular season NFL experience, if he can kick touchbacks consistently, the Redskins could be ahead of the game if he is even a below-average field goal kicker.

First of all, let’s dispose of the notion that Forbath is one of the most accurate field goal kickers in the game. Last year he was ninth in the NFL among kickers who had enough attempts (16) to qualify. He was good on 24 of 27 attempts, 88.9 percent. That’s fine, but not great (six kickers were over 90 percent) and, really, not very significant. Here’s why.

Let’s look at the Rams’ Greg Zuerlein, who ranked 26th with a field goals success percentage of 80.0. Is Forbath a better field goal kicker? Well, if Zuerlein had the same number of attempts as Forbath last year, he would have made 22, two fewer than Forbath. Depending on when those missed field goals happened, they could have been costly.

But if you look closer, you’ll see that Zuerlein attempted seven field goals of 50 yards or longer and made five of them. Forbath had zero attempts from 50 or longer. So two of Zurlein’s misses came on kicks that Forbath didn’t even attempt, presumably because they were out of his range. In the third quarter against the Dolphins, the Redskins were up 10-7 and had a fourth down at the Miami 36. With Forbath as their kicker, they punted and got a touchback. With a kicker with a stronger leg like Zuerlein they could have tried a 54-yard field goal and would have had about a 71 percent chance of taking a 13-7 lead that would have changed the complexion of the rest of the game.

Let’s look at the factor that Gruden cited, kickoffs. Last year Forbath had a net kickoff average (gross yards minus return yards and touchbacks X 20 yards) of 40.7 yards. Zuerlein’s average was 44.6. Rounding to the nearest yard line, an average Forbath kickoff ended with the other team taking possession at the 24 while Zuerlein’s ended up at the 20. Big deal? On one individual kick, maybe not. Over the course of a season it adds up.

According to some numbers crunchers who are much smarter than I am, a team that starts a drive that starts on the 24 has a 17.6 percent chance of scoring a touchdown and a 10.9 percent chance of making a field goal. For a team starting on the 20, the TD chances are 16.4 percent and 10.1 for a field goal. The average NFL team kicked off 81 times last year. So on average, following kickoffs the team that kicks to the 24 will allow 14 touchdowns and nine field goals while the team that kicks to the 20 will allow 13 TDs and eight field goals.

You don’t have to be a genius numbers cruncher to figure out that the defense giving up 10 fewer points with a kicker like Zuerlein slightly more than compensates for the six points lose being less “accurate” in field goals than Forbath. If you add in the chance that Zuerlein gives the team to score on an attempt from over 50 yards out the advantage goes to the less “accurate” kicker with the stronger leg.

Looking at it right now, we don’t know if Hopkins will miss a makeable field goal in a clutch situation. But in the big picture, if he can hit on 80 percent of his field goals, give the Redskins a chance to score when they get inside the opponent’s 40, and have opponents starting drives at the 20 more often than not, the move could end up being a net plus for Gruden and the Redskins.

YEa Iread this...interesting. I know it was a punt reuturn but I think that it had a little to do with it as well.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

I think everyone knows kickoffs have been an issue, however, so is a kicker who can't even attempt field goals of fifty plus yards due to lack of leg strength. It's probably a little easier to connect on 88% of your attempts if they're all from 45 yards or shorter. If you get to the opposing 35 and come away with no points, here at Slappy's, that's a big problem. Bonus points to anyone who gets that reference.

I think Tandler is stealing my material.

[StorminMormon86]

Reading some "insiders" tweets and it seems like it came down to a couple of things:

-Gruden was never sold on Forbath when he got here.
-McCloughan obviously took into account the lack of special teams talent, and realized that he needed a stronger leg for kickoffs.
-McCloughan was not very high on Forbath.
-Hopkins has a stronger leg, but similar accuracy to Forbath. So, essentially, they signed Hopkins for the kick offs.

[SkinsJock]

Reading some "insiders" tweets and it seems like it came down to a couple of things:

1-Gruden was never sold on Forbath when he got here.
2-McCloughan obviously took into account the lack of special teams talent, and realized that he needed a stronger leg for kickoffs.
3-McCloughan was not very high on Forbath.
4-Hopkins has a stronger leg, but similar accuracy to Forbath. So, essentially, they signed Hopkins for the kick offs.

OK you're killing me

1 - what does this have to do with anything?
2 - why now? - why not before the season?
3 - why not address this before the season began?
4 -

I love this stuff

[StorminMormon86]

1 - what does this have to do with anything?
2 - why now? - why not before the season?
3 - why not address this before the season began?
4 -

-He is the head coach...?
-"Here's an important point to note in releasing Kai Forbath: the loss of coverage players such as Niles Paul and Adam Hayward made his lack of distance on knockoffs a much bigger issue. The Redskins need someone to take pressure off the kick coverage unit."
-See above. Injuries have depleted the special teams. Need a bigger leg to kick into the endzone on kick offs.
-Ok.

[riggofan]

-He is the head coach...?

Lol. Seems like a reasonable response to the question.

This is kind of a lengthy read, but if you get into the details you can see the logic:

First of all, let’s dispose of the notion that Forbath is one of the most accurate field goal kickers in the game. Last year he was ninth in the NFL among kickers who had enough attempts (16) to qualify. He was good on 24 of 27 attempts, 88.9 percent. That’s fine, but not great (six kickers were over 90 percent) and, really, not very significant. Here’s why.

Let’s look at the Rams’ Greg Zuerlein, who ranked 26th with a field goals success percentage of 80.0. Is Forbath a better field goal kicker? Well, if Zuerlein had the same number of attempts as Forbath last year, he would have made 22, two fewer than Forbath. Depending on when those missed field goals happened, they could have been costly.

But if you look closer, you’ll see that Zuerlein attempted seven field goals of 50 yards or longer and made five of them. Forbath had zero attempts from 50 or longer. So two of Zurlein’s misses came on kicks that Forbath didn’t even attempt, presumably because they were out of his range. In the third quarter against the Dolphins, the Redskins were up 10-7 and had a fourth down at the Miami 36. With Forbath as their kicker, they punted and got a touchback. With a kicker with a stronger leg like Zuerlein they could have tried a 54-yard field goal and would have had about a 71 percent chance of taking a 13-7 lead that would have changed the complexion of the rest of the game.

Let’s look at the factor that Gruden cited, kickoffs. Last year Forbath had a net kickoff average (gross yards minus return yards and touchbacks X 20 yards) of 40.7 yards. Zuerlein’s average was 44.6. Rounding to the nearest yard line, an average Forbath kickoff ended with the other team taking possession at the 24 while Zuerlein’s ended up at the 20. Big deal? On one individual kick, maybe not. Over the course of a season it adds up.

According to some numbers crunchers who are much smarter than I am, a team that starts a drive that starts on the 24 has a 17.6 percent chance of scoring a touchdown and a 10.9 percent chance of making a field goal. For a team starting on the 20, the TD chances are 16.4 percent and 10.1 for a field goal. The average NFL team kicked off 81 times last year. So on average, following kickoffs the team that kicks to the 24 will allow 14 touchdowns and nine field goals while the team that kicks to the 20 will allow 13 TDs and eight field goals.

You don’t have to be a genius numbers cruncher to figure out that the defense giving up 10 fewer points with a kicker like Zuerlein slightly more than compensates for the six points lose being less “accurate” in field goals than Forbath. If you add in the chance that Zuerlein gives the team to score on an attempt from over 50 yards out the advantage goes to the less “accurate” kicker with the stronger leg.

Looking at it right now, we don’t know if Hopkins will miss a makeable field goal in a clutch situation. But in the big picture, if he can hit on 80 percent of his field goals, give the Redskins a chance to score when they get inside the opponent’s 40, and have opponents starting drives at the 20 more often than not, the move could end up being a net plus for Gruden and the Redskins.

http://realredskins.com/2015/09/15/the- ... te-kicker/

[SkinsJock]

If Gruden did not like Forbath, why did he still have him here all last season & through TC - Forbath was the starter last week because Gruden thought he was the best guy for the job - Forbath has been good at certain things & bad at others - NOTHING changed except we lost the game

why did Gruden have him on the roster if he was not the best guy for the job?

[Irn-Bru]

Reading some "insiders" tweets and it seems like it came down to a couple of things:

-Gruden was never sold on Forbath when he got here.

I find this hard to believe. If it's true, then I want to know why we didn't keep the kicker that we drafted over Forbath last year.

[Irn-Bru]

Tandler's analysis seems basically right to me. I hadn't realized that we didn't even attempt a 50+ yard FG last year. Wow. We need someone back there who can at least give a 54-yard game-changer a try.

[SkinsJock]

because he is the head coach...?

Seems like a reasonable response to the question.

OK - I'll ask again - Gruden made the decision to have Forbath be the kicker last season and again this season - what changed?

[SkinsJock]

Reading some "insiders" tweets and it seems like it came down to a couple of things:
Gruden was never sold on Forbath when he got here.

I find this hard to believe. If it's true, then I want to know why we didn't keep the kicker that we drafted over Forbath last year.

OK - so do I - WHY?

[riggofan]

OK - I'll ask again - Gruden made the decision to have Forbath be the kicker last season and again this season - what changed?

Sounds like a reasonable question to me!

[riggofan]

Tandler's analysis seems basically right to me. I hadn't realized that we didn't even attempt a 50+ yard FG last year. Wow. We need someone back there who can at least give a 54-yard game-changer a try.

Yeah I didn't either. That's not good, especially combined with the kickoffs which we've all known were a problem for a long time. The only thing I can think regarding last year is that Hocker, a rookie, just plain didn't beat Forbath.

I'll admit that kicker is a sore point with me and this team. What year did we have that whole Eddie Murray fiasco? I was at this Skins v Giants game where that old guy just missed kick after kick. Having Forbath out there being reasonably competent is something I've appreciated. It won't be easy for me to see the team mess with that.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

Tandler's analysis seems basically right to me. I hadn't realized that we didn't even attempt a 50+ yard FG last year. Wow. We need someone back there who can at least give a 54-yard game-changer a try.

Yeah I didn't either. That's not good, especially combined with the kickoffs which we've all known were a problem for a long time. The only thing I can think regarding last year is that Hocker, a rookie, just plain didn't beat Forbath.

I'll admit that kicker is a sore point with me and this team. What year did we have that whole Eddie Murray fiasco? I was at this Skins v Giants game where that old guy just missed kick after kick. Having Forbath out there being reasonably competent is something I've appreciated. It won't be easy for me to see the team mess with that.

I miss Steve Cox. That sucker could connect from 60 easily, and did a few times. And he wasn't even the regular field goal kicker.

[DEHog]

because he is the head coach...?

Seems like a reasonable response to the question.

OK - I'll ask again - Gruden made the decision to have Forbath be the kicker last season and again this season - what changed?

Hayward aand Paul are out, add to that we had a punt returned for a TD...and you're staring down the barrel at Tavon Austin.

[SkinsJock]

this move should have been made before this week ...

[Deadskins]

:lol: this move should have been made before this week ...

Like a year before.