RedskinsFreak wrote:Well, I thought I'd give it a shot and figure out JC's non-prevent numbers. For the purpose of these calculations, I defined "prevent time" as:
1) After the Giants ran that time-eating drive and kicked the FG to take a 23-10 lead
and
2) After the Lions scored their early-4Q TD to take a 19-7 lead.
In those two "prevent" time periods, JC went:
17-for-21, 176 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT = 133.3 rating
Which leaves this as his non-prevent performance:
52-for-81, 617 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT = 81.1 rating
Completely average. No other way to put it.
Yes .. and I would add that the QB rating system has some major flaws. Points don't hold enough weight, while yards and completion percentage hold too much weight, especially when short passing games will invariably produce artificially high numbers.
But the numbers posted do support the claim that there is a lot of statistical padding occurring against prevent defenses which makes Campbell's number look much better than they actually are.
But then again, all you really have to do is watch the games, and abandon the rose colored glasses and stop searching for excuses and scapegoats.
Campbell has the physical ability, no doubt. And he puts together some pretty good streaks here and there ... enough to keep hope alive that he'll become more consistent. Unfortunately, many simply misdiagnose his problems as unfamiliarity or lack of experience in the offense being run. That's really not the case, because if it was, the actually pattern in Campbell's play would be reversed.
Example ... in 2006, he threw for 10 TD's in 7 games. His 2-5 record doesn't reflect the quality of his play in those first 7 games. The defense sucked in 2006 (the only year we can honestly say the defense didn't hold up their end). So, going into 2007, there was legitimate optimism that Campbell ... as he became more familiar and experienced in the offense, would continue improving. But he did not. He digressed in the most important area ... productivity ... TDs ! Yes his comp % went up by 7%, and his yards per game went up by 20 or so yards, but his turnovers exploded, both fumbles and int's. He finished 12 1/2 games with 12 TDs and 19 T.O.'s, and lost his last 4 games before being injured. So to say he actually improved from 2006 to 2007 is simply statistical game playing and not reality. In no way shape or form did we see Campbell improve in 2007.
In 2008, Campbell digressed further. His comp % went up 2%, but yards per game went down, and his TDs per game went down (2007 12 TD's in 12.5 games to 13 TDs in 16 games).
So, the bottom line ... which is getting the ball in the end zone, Campbell steadily digressed from 2006-2008.
This year, so far, his numbers have improved across the board. But much of it has come from playing two pretty lousy teams, and racking up a lot of unproductive yards late in games. Could you say he's better this year than last? Maybe. But it's way too early to say that is a fact, and what we've seen so far is not nearly enough to say he's a legit starting QB that can produce at a high level. And, if he follows his own well established trend, as the competition increases over the course of the next few weeks, his numbers are very likely to decline below 2008 levels.
That's because his problems are not related to familiarity with "the system". His problems are much more fundamental .. he is slow recognizing coverages and running through progressions. Because of that, he holds the ball too long, and he is late getting balls to his receivers. His accuracy on deeper patterns has not improved even when not pressured (also not system related), and misses too many scoring opportunities.
His red zone play suffers because of the aforementioned difficulties because the field is shorter and play speeds up ... defenses have less ground to cover and late throws are more often defended successfully.
Given Campbell's experience level, he should have made much greater strides by now, but suffers from the same inabilities that one comes to expect from an inexperienced player.
The reason I think he actually digresses as the season progresses is that defenses game plan and continue to disguise their coverages .. so just as Jason becomes more comfortable, new looks are presented to him that he is unable to process quickly enough and successfully defeat. In other words, the opposition adjusts to Campbell much better than Campbell is capable of adjusting to them.
ey the sealer instead of putting in an extra lineman in on 4 and 1...and then run 
