Simple Playoff Path for the Burgundy and Gold

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 12:23 pm

JPM36 wrote:A revised edition would look something like this:

1. Redskins win BOTH their 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night

3. Giants lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ Cin, vs. Dal

4. Saints lose EITHER of their 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

5. Panthers lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

If we get ALL THAT, our reward is the 6th seed in the NFC

Man, Detroit missing that extra point really killed us. Other than that, this weekend went exceptionally well for us.

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 12:29 pm

General Failure wrote:What a dilema. Root for Neckbeard and the Second String All-Stars to humiliate Martz, or hope they phone it in and ruin your chance at the playoffs.

What is a fan to do ...

You better hope that we don't meet again in the playoffs. Philly would be going home for the 4th straight year.

hkHog · Post by **hkHog** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:11 pm

genuswine hoglover wrote:
JPM36 wrote:A revised edition would look something like this:

1. Redskins win BOTH their 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night

3. Giants lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ Cin, vs. Dal

4. Saints lose EITHER of their 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

5. Panthers lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

If we get ALL THAT, our reward is the 6th seed in the NFC.

I may be wrong but it is even slightly more complicated than above. I think the following must also occur: Either the Saints or the Panthers MUST lose next week or we are out. Otherwise, they play each other the following week and both can't lose.

Yeah, good call. So this does not change the above picture but it does show that there are basically three ways to be eliminated next week. We're out if we lose, the Rams win, or the Saints AND Panthers both win.

Also, I would say 2 and 4 are pretty certain based on the fact that these two teams are playing the two best in our division. Philly doesn't have TO but they still have McNabb, Westbrook, etc... and I don't think Andy Reid wants to let his team start losing! As for 3, the Giants just suck but they played pretty well against Pittsburg. Still, it's highly unlikely that they can win two in a row.

I'm only really worried about points 1 and 5. Hopefully, TB can stop the Panthers offense with all their injuries. Carolina still hasn't beaten a winning team but neither of their opponents have winning records. Then we just have to keep playing tough and win out.

General Failure · Post by **General Failure** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:15 pm

JSPB22 wrote:You better hope that we don't meet again in the playoffs. Philly would be going home for the 4th straight year.

Gotta win that first round game before you get to the Eagles if you get in at all.

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:17 pm

genuswine hoglover wrote:
JPM36 wrote:A revised edition would look something like this:

1. Redskins win BOTH their 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night

3. Giants lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ Cin, vs. Dal

4. Saints lose EITHER of their 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

5. Panthers lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

If we get ALL THAT, our reward is the 6th seed in the NFC

I may be wrong but it is even slightly more complicated than above. I think the following must also occur: Either the Saints or the Panthers MUST lose next week or we are out. Otherwise, they play each other the following week and both can't lose.

Thanks for pointing that out, but 4 and 5 cover that already, just not in as plain language as you did.

Also, number 2 should be ammended to read:
Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night or Seattle loses their remaining 2 games (vs. ARI, vs. ATL)

JPM36 · Post by **JPM36** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 2:09 pm

Good call about Seattle. I never even thought about that. This playoff picture is even more confusing than I orginally thought. Let's just take it one week at a time.

To survive this week we need:

1. To beat Dallas

2. Either New Orleans or Carolina to lose

3. Either Seattle or St. Louis to lose

And I believe this was previously mentioned in the thread but is also worth pointing out again.

If the following happens, the Redskins-Vikings game will be a "win and their in" situation for the Burgundy and Gold:

1. Redskins win @ Dallas

2. Saints lose vs. Atlanta

3. Panthers lose @ Bucs

4. Giants lose @ Bengals

5. Rams lose vs. Panthers

Again this has been said before but it just amazes me so much I have to reiterate it. Imagine going to the stadium on January 2nd for the Minny game knowing that if we win we make the PLAYOFFS.....I don't know about you guys but when I was leaving after the Eagles game I thought any playoff hopes were over for sure.

Hail to the Redskins

JPM36 · Post by **JPM36** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 2:10 pm

above post should say "Rams lose vs. Eagles" obviously.... gonna be hard to root for those guys....

chicosbailbond · Post by **chicosbailbond** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 2:13 pm

I saw this posted somewhere else.... it mapped it out pretty well... I don't think there are many holes in this but here you go:

The Redskins are currently 5-9, 5-5 in the conference, and 1-4 in the division. The following would have to happen for them to make the playoffs:

1.They win their last two games: @Dallas and vs Minnesota. This would put them at 7-9, 7-5 in the conference, and 2-4 in their division. They've been playing pretty well in the past 3 games, and I think their offense has finally caught on a little. I don't think its that big of a stretch for them to win these two games at all, especially if Minnesota has nothing to play for in the final week.

2.The NY Giants do not win BOTH of their final two games: @Cincy and vs Dallas. I don't think they'll win @Cincy next week, so this isn't that big of a deal.

3.Carolina loses at least one of their final two games: @TB and vs NO. If they lose at least one of these, then the Redskins will have a better conference record and will beat them out.

4.New Orleans loses at least one of their final two game: vs Atlanta and @ Carolina. The Redskins will have a better conference record.

Note: So as you can tell, either NO or Carolina will lose in their week 17 matchup, so basically points #3 and 4 can be shortened to this: The winner of their week 17 matchup will have to have lost in week 16. Personally, I think Carolina will win in week 17, so I'm really rooting for Tampa to beat Carolina in week 16.

5.St Louis to lose to Philly in week 16(this will mean that the best St Louis can finsih is 7-9 with a 6-6 mark in the conference) OR St Louis to lose in week 17 against the NY Jets and Washington to hold on to their strength of victory edge over St Louis OR Seattle to lose their final two games: vs Arizona and Atlanta.

By my quick calculations, thats all they need(feel free to correct me if I made an error somewhere). Now, lets take a look at the likelihood of all this:

#5 is pretty likely imo. Basically, unless St Louis wins two games in which they will be underdogs, it'll happen. And with the way they played today, I can't see that happening.

#2 is also pretty likely. I can't see the Giants behind Manning winning both of those games.

So that leaves us with #1 and #3/4(which can be combined). What are the odds that the Skins beat the Cowboys and Vikings? Probably not too great, but they're playing well, so I wouldn't call it impossible. What are the odds that the winner of the week 17 Carolina-NO matchup loses in week 16? I'd say about 40% or so- not too unlikely.

So there you have it- They can make the playoffs!!!!

But I know...I said 'super bowl.' Well, with Lavar Arrington finally back, their offense on track, and if they finish out on a roll like this...I think they can easily make it through a weak NFC. Thoughts?

And to think...if the refs hadn't robbed them with two terrible PI calls when they played Dallas and Philly, they might just have gotten in easily.

Redskins in the playoffs, baby!

genuswine hoglover · Post by **genuswine hoglover** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 2:32 pm

JPM36 wrote:when I was leaving after the Eagles game I thought any playoff hopes were over for sure.

Hail to the Redskins

Boy, that last minute interception is looming large now. If we get a touchdown and win that game, we would already have the playoff destiny in our own hands if we win out. We wouldn't need all this other help.

One point of clarification. Two posts here mention strength of victory. One implied that St. Louis had the tiebreaker over us. The other implied we had the tiebreaker over St. Louis. Anyone looked closely at this tiebreaker step? It may come down to that.

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 3:04 pm

JPM36 wrote:To survive this week we need:

1. To beat Dallas

2. Either New Orleans or Carolina to lose

3. Either Seattle or St. Louis to lose

I want both teams to lose in 2 and 3. If that happens: we win/we're in!

No. I spoke too soon. The G-spots need to lose too.

Redskin in Canada · Post by **Redskin in Canada** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 3:41 pm

chicosbailbond wrote:I saw this posted somewhere else....

To me the playoffs started two weeks ago. And we lost at home the first week. If we -ever- squeeze in at all, we will be the luckiest team in the NFL.

I just get so frustrated to know how much a difference a single game, even a single play, would have made in some of our loses.

In any event, I will be happy if the Skins give us two wins, particularly one -in- D next week.

SkinsLaVar · Post by **SkinsLaVar** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 3:45 pm

Ah man, when the Lions missed that extra point, it was crushing. I felt so bad for Joey Harrington. With 37 seconds he rallys all the way for the touchdown to tie the game, but they miss the extra point...wow.. If I felt bad about that, imagine how he feels.

Oh, and the Rams won't beat the Birds. I was actually hoping the Birds would win vs. Dallas. I don't know why. If we make it to the playoffs at 7-9, and those Iggs are in at like 13-1 and choke, haha man, all that hard work for nothing!

Anyway, lets say we end up 7-9, do we really have a chance? I mean come on , 7-9, :lol:

. Well whatever, if we have a chance than I'm pretty excited. Go Redskins

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:18 pm

Believe it LaVar. If this happens this weekend:
1. The Rams lose to Philly
2. The Giants lose to Cincy
3. The Saints lose to Atlanta
4. The Panthers lose to Tampa Bay
we will control our own destiny. All four of those contests could easily go our way. Of course, all of this is moot, if the 'Skins don't win out.

genuswine hoglover · Post by **genuswine hoglover** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:26 pm

BringThePain! wrote:two things on this:

1) we also need the Giants to lose to Cin or Dal, for we can't beat them in a tie due to they have a better division record.

2) St. Louis needs to lose to Philly... if they beat Philly... we're out no matter if they lose to NYJ or not, because they would beat us in Strength of victory in a tie... but losing to Philly would give us a better Conf Record...

I did not some further research on #2. Currently, SL strength of victory is .333 vs Wash .314. If they beat Philly, lose to the Jets, and we win out it is still possible for us to make the playoffs. There are all kinds of possible scenarios, because it would depend on how well each of the 7 teams SL and Wash beat finish their year. By my calculations, the best case and worst case scenarios for each team's strength of victory still overlap. (hey, I had some time on my hands today.)

BringThePain! · Post by **BringThePain!** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:34 pm

how are you determining strength of victory? I was assuming that it is how many points you beat a team by...

genuswine hoglover · Post by **genuswine hoglover** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:01 pm

BringThePain! wrote:how are you determining strength of victory? I was assuming that it is how many points you beat a team by...

http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference

Basically strength of victory is sum of the wins each beaten opponent has had divided by the total games played by each opponent beat. For example, we beat Tampa chicago, Det, NYG, SF = (5+5+5+5+2)/(14+14+14+14+14)=.314

gundo · Post by **gundo** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 6:12 pm

I think everyone is making this more complicated than it is.

There are 10 other teams that could finish 7-9.

Of those 11, the Skins have head-to-head tie breakers with the Bucs, Lions and Bears (all 5-9). So, those teams are out of the equation, because the best they can finish is 7-9.

Of the remaining 8, there are 2 division foes -- Cowboys (5-9) and Giants (5-9) (this is important, b/c under the tie-breaking rules for wild card teams, division tie-breakers are applied first). Obviously, the Cowboys are out, because the Skins need to beat them on Sunday to stay alive. The Giants, however, MUST LOSE 1 of their 2 games because otherwise they will finish 7-9 with a better division record than the Skins.

After that, there are 5 remaining teams: Seahawks (7-7), Panthers (6-8), Saints (6-8), Rams (6-8), Cardinals (5-9). The Cards, Saints and Panthers are out of the equation because the Skins would have a better conference record. This leaves the Seahawks and Rams. If the Rams lose to Philly, Skins would hold the conference record tie-breaker. If the Rams beat Philly, but lose to the Jets, the Rams would hold the common opponents tie-breaker. But....if the Rams and Seahawks both finish 7-9 -- even if the Rams beat Philly and lose to the Jets -- the Rams would get the division based on head-to-head, and the Skins would get the final wild-card based on better conference record than the Seahawks.

So....

IF, Skins win out (big if, b/c the last time the Skins won at Dallas was when Heath Shuler was the QB)....they make it in if:

BOTH the Giants (@Cincy; Dallas), Panthers (@TB; Saints) and Saints (Atl; @Car) lose 1 of 2 remaining games
AND
EITHER the Rams lose against Philly this week OR the Seahawks (Ariz; Atl) lose both of their remaining games.

The kicker is that the Saints and Panthers face each other in the final game. So, if both win this week, the Skins are done; and if only one loses this week, then that team must win in the final week.

So....for the scoreboard watchers out there, we want Philly to beat StL; TB to beat Carolina; Atlanta to beat NO; Cincy to beat NY; Ariz to beat Seattle. Got it?

Why did I just waste 20 minutes on this when there is zero chance that the Skins actually make it?

welch · Post by **welch** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:48 pm

I think everyone is making this more complicated than it is.

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:54 pm

gundo wrote:I think everyone is making this more complicated than it is.

There are 10 other teams that could finish 7-9.

Of those 11, the Skins have head-to-head tie breakers with the Bucs, Lions and Bears (all 5-9). So, those teams are out of the equation, because the best they can finish is 7-9.

Of the remaining 8, there are 2 division foes -- Cowboys (5-9) and Giants (5-9) (this is important, b/c under the tie-breaking rules for wild card teams, division tie-breakers are applied first). Obviously, the Cowboys are out, because the Skins need to beat them on Sunday to stay alive. The Giants, however, MUST LOSE 1 of their 2 games because otherwise they will finish 7-9 with a better division record than the Skins.

After that, there are 5 remaining teams: Seahawks (7-7), Panthers (6-8), Saints (6-8), Rams (6-8), Cardinals (5-9). The Cards, Saints and Panthers are out of the equation because the Skins would have a better conference record. This leaves the Seahawks and Rams. If the Rams lose to Philly, Skins would hold the conference record tie-breaker. If the Rams beat Philly, but lose to the Jets, the Rams would hold the common opponents tie-breaker. But....if the Rams and Seahawks both finish 7-9 -- even if the Rams beat Philly and lose to the Jets -- the Rams would get the division based on head-to-head, and the Skins would get the final wild-card based on better conference record than the Seahawks.

So....

IF, Skins win out (big if, b/c the last time the Skins won at Dallas was when Heath Shuler was the QB)....they make it in if:

BOTH the Giants (@Cincy; Dallas), Panthers (@TB; Saints) and Saints (Atl; @Car) lose 1 of 2 remaining games
AND
EITHER the Rams lose against Philly this week OR the Seahawks (Ariz; Atl) lose both of their remaining games.

The kicker is that the Saints and Panthers face each other in the final game. So, if both win this week, the Skins are done; and if only one loses this week, then that team must win in the final week.

So....for the scoreboard watchers out there, we want Philly to beat StL; TB to beat Carolina; Atlanta to beat NO; Cincy to beat NY; Ariz to beat Seattle. Got it?

Why did I just waste 20 minutes on this when there is zero chance that the Skins actually make it?

Wow! I thought I had said it simply enough ten posts ago:
http://www.the-hogs.net/forum/viewtopic. ... c&start=37

JPM36 · Post by **JPM36** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:49 am

I know this is a huge longshot but I just wanna say how awesome it feels to be talking about playoff possibilities a few days before Christmas, man it's been a while....

I think I sum up the feelings of everyone for this weekend when I say:

GO FALCONS

GO BUCS

GO CARDINALS

GO BENGALS

GO..... EAGLES??

AND MOST OF ALL.... GO REDSKINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I'll also be rooting for the Vikes on Friday against GB. IF the Vikes win that game they clinch the NFC North title and since they have no chance at a bye they would probably rest their key guys against us in 2 weeks which could be (fingers crossed) a very big game.... Just covering all the bases)

Hail to the Redskins

Raised2BeARedskin · Post by **Raised2BeARedskin** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 1:12 am

Yeah...I'm getting tired of reading people echo each other about this whole playoff chance. I'm confident that we can make it! All the teams that we needed to lose have lost, and continue to lose. You know its a bad year when you rely more on other teams losing then your team winning to make the playoffs! Go Skins!

BringThePain! · Post by **BringThePain!** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 1:15 am

Yeah...I'm getting tired of reading people echo each other about this whole playoff chance. I'm confident that we can make it! All the teams that we needed to lose have lost, and continue to lose. You know its a bad year when you rely more on other teams losing then your team winning to make the playoffs! Go Skins!

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 1:35 am

Playoffs? Yeah we got a shot if the right things happen...

That team in Texas Is Primary Focus

Raised2BeARedskin · Post by **Raised2BeARedskin** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:09 pm

Ha ha...very funny BringThePain

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:14 pm

JPM36 wrote:I know this is a huge longshot but I just wanna say how awesome it feels to be talking about playoff possibilities a few days before Christmas, man it's been a while....

I think I sum up the feelings of everyone for this weekend when I say:

GO FALCONS

GO BUCS

GO CARDINALS

GO BENGALS

GO..... EAGLES??

AND MOST OF ALL.... GO REDSKINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I'll also be rooting for the Vikes on Friday against GB. IF the Vikes win that game they clinch the NFC North title and since they have no chance at a bye they would probably rest their key guys against us in 2 weeks which could be (fingers crossed) a very big game.... Just covering all the bases)

Hail to the Redskins

If we do make the playoffs and the Vikings win the NFC North, we would face them in the Wildcard round of the playoffs (basically, we would face them two weeks in a row).