Simple Playoff Path for the Burgundy and Gold

JPM36 · Post by **JPM36** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:36 pm

Ok guys, here is what I have come up with:

The Washington Redskins make it to the playoffs as the NFC's 6th seed if:

1. Redskins win BOTH of their last 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Carolina loses EITHER of their last 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

3. St. Louis loses EITHER of their last 2 games: vs. Phi, vs. NYJ

4. New Orleans loses EITHER of their last 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

If the Redskins finish 7-9 and none of the other teams in the wildcard chase win 8 games, the Redskins should be able to beat everyone out in the tiebreakers. The Redskins would hold head to head tiebreakers over Chicago, Detroit, and Tampa Bay and since they went 0-4 vs. the AFC they would have a 7-5 NFC record. No 7-9 team could possibly have a better in conference record than 7-5, so the Redskins should hold a tiebreaker over everyone else in the NFC wildcard chase. I know it sounds crazy and confusing, but it's really not that far fetched that we could make the postseason if we win these last 2 games. I know I'm still holding out hope.

Hail to the Redskins.

BringThePain! · Post by **BringThePain!** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:44 pm

two things on this:

1) we also need the Giants to lose to Cin or Dal, for we can't beat them in a tie due to they have a better division record.

2) St. Louis needs to lose to Philly... if they beat Philly... we're out no matter if they lose to NYJ or not, because they would beat us in Strength of victory in a tie... but losing to Philly would give us a better Conf Record...

kkryan · Post by **kkryan** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:44 pm

If NY wins its final games it would go over Washington because their division record would be better. We have an outside chance but thats all.

SKINS4LIFE · Post by **SKINS4LIFE** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:47 pm

Im with u on this one.

JPM36 · Post by **JPM36** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:50 pm

Are you guys sure about the Giants? Why would division record be the tiebreaker in determining 6th place in the conference? I think it goes from head-to-head to conference record in determining the wild card. I'm not sure. Anyways I barely even looked at the Giants when coming up with this considering the way they are playing lately. I highly doubt they could go into Cincy and win. They'll lose to the Cowboys too. They are a joke.

We do need the Eagles to beat the Rams tho. That could be a problem....I didn't realize the Rams had also lost all their AFC games so far....man the NFC is weak this year....

Can't stop hoping tho...

SKINS4LIFE · Post by **SKINS4LIFE** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:53 pm

Im probably the most optimistic redskins fan EVER!!!! And Im

defenitly with you on this one. If this does happen, nobody

would has seen this coming. That is except the few of us

that have done the math. This is what I want for X-mas. And

maybe this will shut Terry Bradshaw up.

BringThePain! · Post by **BringThePain!** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 9:00 pm

JPM36 wrote:Are you guys sure about the Giants? Why would division record be the tiebreaker in determining 6th place in the conference? I think it goes from head-to-head to conference record in determining the wild card. I'm not sure. Anyways I barely even looked at the Giants when coming up with this considering the way they are playing lately. I highly doubt they could go into Cincy and win. They'll lose to the Cowboys too. They are a joke.

We do need the Eagles to beat the Rams tho. That could be a problem....I didn't realize the Rams had also lost all their AFC games so far....man the NFC is weak this year....

Can't stop hoping tho...

from: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/stor ... iebreakers

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 9:03 pm

JPM36 wrote:Are you guys sure about the Giants? Why would division record be the tiebreaker in determining 6th place in the conference? I think it goes from head-to-head to conference record in determining the wild card.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

JPM36 · Post by **JPM36** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 9:06 pm

A revised edition would look something like this:

1. Redskins win BOTH their 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night

3. Giants lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ Cin, vs. Dal

4. Saints lose EITHER of their 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

5. Panthers lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

If we get ALL THAT, our reward is the 6th seed in the NFC

BringThePain! · Post by **BringThePain!** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 9:06 pm

How come my posts keep echoing throughout this thread

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 9:10 pm

BringThePain! wrote:How come my posts keep echoing throughout this thread

because you type faster

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 9:12 pm

JPM36 wrote:A revised edition would look something like this:

1. Redskins win BOTH their 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night

3. Giants lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ Cin, vs. Dal

4. Saints lose EITHER of their 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

5. Panthers lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

If we get ALL THAT, our reward is the 6th seed in the NFC

Another echo

BTP wrote:2) St. Louis needs to lose to Philly... if they beat Philly... we're out no matter if they lose to NYJ or not, because they would beat us in Strength of victory in a tie... but losing to Philly would give us a better Conf Record...

Steve Spurrier III · Post by **Steve Spurrier III** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 11:35 pm

As if it wasn't scary enough that the Redskins at 5-9 were still alive for a playoff spot, consider this:

If the Redskins beat the Cowboys,
the Eagles beat the Rams,
the Buccaneers beat the Panthers
and the Falcons beat the Saints,

the Redskins will control their own playoff destiny!

Can you imagine, going into Week 17 with a 6-9 record, controlling our own playoff destiny? Wow...

General Failure · Post by **General Failure** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 12:35 am

What a dilema. Root for Neckbeard and the Second String All-Stars to humiliate Martz, or hope they phone it in and ruin your chance at the playoffs.

What is a fan to do ...

Irn-Bru · Post by **Irn-Bru** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:19 am

Steve Spurrier III wrote:As if it wasn't scary enough that the Redskins at 5-9 were still alive for a playoff spot, consider this:

If the Redskins beat the Cowboys,
the Eagles beat the Rams,
the Buccaneers beat the Panthers
and the Falcons beat the Saints,

the Redskins will control their own playoff destiny!

Can you imagine, going into Week 17 with a 6-9 record, controlling our own playoff destiny? Wow...

Controlling our own playoff destiny against a Viking team that is known to drop the second half of the season. . .

bingram · Post by **bingram** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:25 am

OK, seriously, I'm only worried about Carolina. They have two winnable games. I'm sure Philly's PeeWee Team will put the Rams out. Especially after their showing today.

General Failure wrote:What a dilema. Root for Neckbeard and the Second String All-Stars to humiliate Martz, or hope they phone it in and ruin your chance at the playoffs.

What is a fan to do ...

Steve Spurrier III · Post by **Steve Spurrier III** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:37 am

General Failure wrote:What a dilema. Root for Neckbeard and the Second String All-Stars to humiliate Martz, or hope they phone it in and ruin your chance at the playoffs.

What is a fan to do ...

You know what's really frustrating? That Terrell Owens' ankle injury is just bad enough to force him out of the one game I want the Eagles to win...

General Failure · Post by **General Failure** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 2:34 am

At least now we can all stop hearing about the infamous tights Reid would have had to wear.

Redskins2k5 · Post by **Redskins2k5** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 3:18 am

well guys its time to predict:

RAMS WILL LOSE
SAINTS WILL LOSE
REDSKINS WILL KICK SOME DALLAS @$$
IF CAROLINA PLAYS AT TAMPA THEY WILL LOSE

END OF STORY- REDSKINS MAKE PLAYOFF BIRTH

7-9 making the playoffs sounds great to me.

Gibbs4Life · Post by **Gibbs4Life** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 3:56 am

Sounds Great. BUT CAN WE BEAT DALLAS IN DALLAS? I mean I have faith and its a heck of a lot better w/Gibbs than Spurrier but we have not found a way to beat that team. What do you all think? How do we match up w/this dallas team?

Ps-whats with all the satanic redskins stuff, I will pray for you people. Maybe you should talk to Gibbs.

Justice Hog · Post by **Justice Hog** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:51 am

I like the optimism...but I sincerely doubt the Skins are going to the post season. #1 reason? They don't deserve to based on their play this "year".

Now, you can all bet there is one team that simply doesn't want the Skins getting into the playoffs. It's the Eagles.

We match up well with them...and we can beat them.

If we can get in, how cool would it be to be this year's Carolina Panthers?!?!?!

Warmother · Post by **Warmother** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 9:26 am

General Failure wrote:What a dilema. Root for Neckbeard and the Second String All-Stars to humiliate Martz, or hope they phone it in and ruin your chance at the playoffs.

What is a fan to do ...

Come on GF you know you want us in the playoffs. I mean another week of gental chiding with eagle fans, :roll:

to be had.

cvillehog · Post by **cvillehog** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:56 am

Justice Hog wrote:If we can get in, how cool would it be to be this year's Carolina Panthers?!?!?!

Except that it looks like the Carolina Panthers may be this years Carolina Panthers...

SkinsFan4Life · Post by **SkinsFan4Life** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:57 am

JPM36 wrote:A revised edition would look something like this:

1. Redskins win BOTH their 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night

3. Giants lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ Cin, vs. Dal

4. Saints lose EITHER of their 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

5. Panthers lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

If we get ALL THAT, our reward is the 6th seed in the NFC

Here's a rough estimate of the likelihood that the above will happen. Assuming that the teams are equally matched (50/50; no tie) and the above events are independent, you get:

Pr{event 1} = 1/4
Pr{event 2} = 1/2
Pr{event 3} = 3/4
Pr{event 4} = 3/4
Pr{event 5} = 3/4

Pr{Skins make the playoffs} = 27/512 = 0.053

Roughly speaking, the Skins have a 1 in 19 chance of making the playoffs. If we win out, our chance is about 1 in 5.

This is just a rough estimate, but these numbers are much more encouraging than I thought.

genuswine hoglover · Post by **genuswine hoglover** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 11:43 am

JPM36 wrote:A revised edition would look something like this:

1. Redskins win BOTH their 2 games: @ Dal, vs. Min

2. Rams lose vs. Philly on Monday Night

3. Giants lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ Cin, vs. Dal

4. Saints lose EITHER of their 2 games: vs. Atl, @ Car

5. Panthers lose EITHER of their 2 games: @ TB, vs. NO

If we get ALL THAT, our reward is the 6th seed in the NFC

I may be wrong but it is even slightly more complicated than above. I think the following must also occur: Either the Saints or the Panthers MUST lose next week or we are out. Otherwise, they play each other the following week and both can't lose.

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Simple Playoff Path for the Burgundy and Gold

Simple Playoff Path for the Burgundy and Gold

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