MARVIN'S DEAL NOT QUITE SO MARVELOUS
While the mainstream media continues to parrot (to the delight of agent Tom Condon) the numbers that Marvin Harrison will receive from the Colts -- $66 million over six years! $23 million in guaranteed money!! -- a league source has given us the real skinny on Marvin's not-so-marvelous deal.
For starters, Harrison's deal contains a paltry (in comparison to the reports) signing bonus of $6 million.
So where's the other $17 million in guaranteed money? Um, there isn't any -- unless Harrison suffers a career-ending injury between now and the dates on which two obscenely large roster bonuses come due.
Specifically, the Colts owe Harrison a roster bonus of $7 million on the second day of the 2005 league year, and a whopping $10 million on the second day of the 2006 league year. The Colts have the right to guarantee both of these roster boni, which would spread the cap hit over the remainder of the deal.
As for salaries, Harrison will finish 2004 at the prorated rate of $4.559765 million, roughly a million less than his prior rate of $5.56 million salary under his prior contract. But since he's already been paid 13 of 17 weeks at the higher rate, the real reduction in his salary is only 4/17th of the gross difference, or $235,349.
In 2005, Harrison's total salary will be only (only?) $1 million.
In 2006, his base salary will be only (only?) $2 million.
In 2007, the base salary moves to $4 million. In 2008, it goes to $7.6 million. In 2009, it goes to $9 million. In 2010, $10 million. In 2011, $11.4 million.
So what does it all mean? In our view, it's a two-year (i.e., 2004 and 2005) deal that will earn Harrison a total of $14.75 million in new money.
The question then will become whether the Colts pick up a $10 million roster bonus in 2006 (unlikely), guarantee the bonus and spread it over the remaining life of the deal (more likely), renegotiate the contract (most likely), or part ways with Harrison (not very likely, but hardly out of the question).
The cap hit, if the Colts decide to part ways with Harrison after 2005, will be manageable. The signing bonus will trigger a $4 million hit. If the Colts decide to guarantee the 2005 roster bonus, the total cap hit resulting from a release after the 2005 season will climb to $10 million.
The bottom line is that the guaranteed money isn't $23 million -- it's more properly characterized as $14.75 million, counting his paragraph 5 salary in 2004 and 2005, since the 2005 salary will be vested on the first Sunday of the regular season and since the Colts definitely will not release Harrison before paying his $7 million roster bonus in March 2005.
Our guess is that, after 2005, the Colts will look at Harrison's total production, check the market, and decide whether to guarantee the $10 million (reducing his 2005 cap number considerable), offer him a new deal with a lower signing bonus and smaller annual salaries, or thank Harrison for a decade of loyal service, and move on.
The one sure thing is that there's no way this deal will still be in effect in 2008, at which time Harrison's salary will be $7.6 million -- and Harrison will be 36.
Thus, the total money that he'll earn, including the $10 million roster bonus due in 2006 and his $4.6 million salary in 2007, is more like $30.75 million over 3.25 years.
Not chump change, by any means. But hardly the windfall that's been portrayed to date.
http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htmThese guys take nothing at face value.
If there is no story to write about ... they'll make one up
Posted the day before the above artical...
COLTS GIVE MARVIN TOO MUCH MOOLAH?
Though we've yet to hear from any league insiders regarding the $67 million, seven-year contract handed by the Colts to receiver Marvin Harrison on Wednesday, we're willing to throw out our own take on this one.
The Colts got hosed. Again.
Don't get us wrong, here. Harrison is one of the best receivers in the game, and his stats from 1999 through 2002 are jaw dropping.
But it's hard to justify giving a 32-year-old receiver $23 million in guaranteed money. (Editor's note: The initial reports of a marquee player's guaranteed money typically are puffed by whoever leaks the info -- typically the player's agent -- to the media. Harrison's real number could be much less, but the true figures likely won't generate much media interest.) Between Harrison and quarterback Peyton Manning, the Colts have committed $57 million in bonuses and guarantees this year -- for two players.
Maybe we're missing something here, but there are 53 guys on the roster, and the Colts need to be able to put an adequate supporting cast around Manning and Harrison. With an average of $9.6 million per year in coin going directly to Harrison, it could be a challenge.
Perhaps the Colts are banking on a significant uptick in the salary cap in the coming years, fueled by new TV deals. Regardless, we think they should have allowed Harrison to hit the open market before bidding for his services in the dark. As stellar as he's been, we just can't justify paying that kind of money to a guy with nine years under his belt who goes a smallish 175.
Next up for the Colts is running back Edgerrin James, who might have an eye on his native Miami as free agency approaches. Using the franchise tag on James would cost the Colts approximately $8 million in cash and cap dollars in 2005.
Still, our guess is that owner Jim Irsay will find a way to keep James, if for no reason other than it preserves the team's star power as Irsay continues his quest to get someone else to pay for a new stadium. (We don't fault him for wanting free digs; it's worked for virtually every other NFL owner.)
And while Irsay will have Manning, Harrison, and James together for at least one more year, it'll be very interesting to see how the Colts manage to paste together the rest of the roster with so much cap money going to only three players.
