The Bills, Seahawks and Redskins are among teams that should raise eyebrows in 2009.
By John Clayton
ESPN.com
Each year around this time, I break out my schedule database and try to project surprise teams.
Surprise teams are the ones you least expect to be playoff contenders but, when you think about it, you realize they have a chance. The formula is simple: Give a team better quarterback play and an easy schedule, and it usually has a chance to improve its record.
In 2006, I looked at the Ravens and figured the addition of Steve McNair at quarterback to an offense that scored only 16.6 points a game in 2005 could make Baltimore a surprise. The Ravens went from 6-10 to 13-3, improving their scoring to 22.1 points a game.
Over the past few seasons, I hit on the 2007 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2008 Carolina Panthers as surprise teams.
A year of reflection has helped with some refinements. You learn from mistakes and grow from thoughts you pick up during the year. One thing I learned last season is that some division must suffer for other teams to benefit from what is projected to be an easy schedule.
I learned this from looking at the 2008 Oakland Raiders. The only team with a 2007 winning record they faced before December was the San Diego Chargers. The Raiders entered the year with a .438 schedule. At the very least, I thought the Raiders would go into their final four games with a 6-6 record. Instead, they finished 5-11, waking me up to the notion that the Raiders and other teams in the AFC West were going to help teams in the AFC East and the NFC South to be surprise teams.
Here are the main areas I study when coming up with surprise teams.
# If a schedule is .020 easier than the previous year, it gives a team a chance to add a win. If the schedule is .020 harder, it usually translates to a loss. The Panthers were coming off a 7-9 season in 2007 after playing a tough .523 schedule. Their projected strength of schedule for the 2008 season was .465, .058 easier. That pointed to a 2.9-game improvement, or about three more victories. In 2008, the Panthers exceeded even that projection: They were five games better than in 2007, finishing at 12-4.
# Offense means everything in projecting surprise teams. Usually a one-point increase in scoring can add a win for a team. That's one of the reasons you look for a team to be a surprise if it has a good quarterback who's coming back from a season in which he missed a bunch of games because of injuries. If a team hits on the right quarterback in free agency or the draft, that also works in projecting surprise teams. The Falcons hit on Matt Ryan last season. Their offense improved from 16.2 to 24.2 ppg. Their record went from 4-12 to 11-5, a seven-game improvement.
# A new category in my database involves a team's out-of-division schedule. A year ago, I had the idea that most of the teams in the AFC East would improve because they played the AFC West and the NFC East. I thought most of the AFC East teams could end up 7-3 or better in non-division games. Only the New York Jets ruined that prediction with road losses in San Francisco and Oakland.
In 2009, the circuits to look at this season with decent chances to sport multiple teams with at least 7-3 records in non-division games are the NFC North and the AFC North. It's hard to project the Detroit Lions to have that type of success, but there is a chance that five or six of the teams in those two divisions combined could go 7-3 or better in non-division games.
Here are my surprise teams in 2009:
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6. Washington Redskins: Thanks in part to two games -- non-common dates against the Lions and St. Louis Rams -- the Redskins' non-division schedule is .406, second-easiest in the league. You also have to figure the offense should improve. It scored only 16.6 ppg last season. Jason Campbell is better than that. Everyone is going to be talking up the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles, but don't forget the Redskins.
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