Mel Kiper's First Mock Draft

[brad7686]

MOCK DRAFT: Mel Kiper's Initial First-Round Projection | Jan. 25

This initial projection is based on what I've identified as key need areas for each team.

There are 17 underclassmen among my projections for the first 32 picks of the 2007 NFL draft, including two of the top three. LSU junior quarterback JaMarcus Russell gets the nod as the first overall pick, and North Carolina State defensive tackle Tank Tyler rounds out my first-round projections as the No. 32 overall selection to Indianapolis.



1. Oakland Raiders: *JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
2. Detroit Lions: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: *Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
4. Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
5. Arizona Cardinals: *Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
6. Washington Redskins: *Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
7. Minnesota Vikings: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
8. Houston Texans: *Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
9. Miami Dolphins: *Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio St.
10. Atlanta Falcons: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
11. San Francisco 49ers: *Reggie Nelson, DB, Florida
12. Buffalo Bills: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
13. St. Louis Rams: *Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
14. Carolina Panthers: Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: *Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
16. Green Bay Packers: *Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: *Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
19. Tennessee Titans: *Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
20. New York Giants: *Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St.
21. Denver Broncos: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
22. Dallas Cowboys: *Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
24. New England Patriots (from Seattle): *Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
25. New York Jets: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
26. Philadelphia Eagles: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
27. New Orleans Saints: Daymeion Hughes, CB, California
28. New England Patriots: *Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue
30. San Diego Chargers: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi
31. Chicago Bears: *Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (Fla)
32. Indianapolis Colts: Tank Tyler, DT, NC St.


Pretty reasonable. I was thinkin Detroit would take Thomas too. If this holds somewhat true we will have a choice between Branch and a D-End, which will be useful if the skins make a splash in FA.

[EA7649]

I'm glad that there are 3 top 7 D-linemen that we can pick from.

[UK Skins Fan]

I wouldn't be surprised if Millen picks up a long snapper in the first round.

[Irn-Bru]

The more I look at it, the more I hope that we go with a defensive end and leave a DT to free agency or later in the draft.

[UK Skins Fan]

The more I look at it, the more I hope that we go with a defensive end and leave a DT to free agency or later in the draft.

I suspect that we could get better value for a free agent tackle than we could for an end. Any decent pass rushing end is going to be expensive in free agency - even before we've beaten ourselves senseless in a bidding war with ourselves.

[KazooSkinsFan]

I wouldn't be surprised if Millen picks up a long snapper in the first round.

I lived in the DC area from 13 on, but I"m orignially from Michigan (Kalamazoo) and this is why I became a Redskin fan when I moved to the DC area. Technically that was before Millen, but they've always been so in my memory.

Actually I think he should pick Calvin Johnson. It's been awhile since they drafted a receiver with a high pick.

[KazooSkinsFan]

The more I look at it, the more I hope that we go with a defensive end and leave a DT to free agency or later in the draft.

If Jamal Anderson is availble I'd agree we take him, but I disagree on if he's not. Alan Branch is a force in the middle. If our priority is stopping the run then he is a great choice. Putting him with Griffen would give GW a lot more flexibilty with the pass protection.

[air_hog]

The more I look at it, the more I hope that we go with a defensive end and leave a DT to free agency or later in the draft.

Exactly. Plus, look at Golston who was a late round pick. I mean, this is really generalizing it but if you can find any big fat, hard working, strong college kid and get him in the 5th or 6th round, there is a decent chance he could develop into a key player.

EX: Golston and big Joe.

[UK Skins Fan]

If there's a defensive lineman worthy of the pick when we're on the clock, then I say pick'em, regardless of whether they're an end or a tackle. But if not, don't overreach - trade down if we can.

[Chris Luva Luva]

I dont really pay attention to the draft.

How is the top 10 shaping up? Are there a lot of big names involved?

I want to see us trade down 2-3 spots, get about 3 picks out of the deal and still be able to get what we want.

[KazooSkinsFan]

The more I look at it, the more I hope that we go with a defensive end and leave a DT to free agency or later in the draft.

Exactly. Plus, look at Golston who was a late round pick. I mean, this is really generalizing it but if you can find any big fat, hard working, strong college kid and get him in the 5th or 6th round, there is a decent chance he could develop into a key player.

EX: Golston and big Joe.

I'm not knocking Golston, he's done a stand up job and I'd love to see him continue to be part of the rotation. But that's a completely different thing from Branch. Branch is a mountain and will draw double teams all the time. Our other lineman are going to benefit from that. Again I'm with Jamaal if he's available and I'm not saying we HAVE to get Branch, but I think passing on him because of Golston's not enough of a reason.

[Irn-Bru]

I dont really pay attention to the draft.

How is the top 10 shaping up? Are there a lot of big names involved?

I want to see us trade down 2-3 spots, get about 3 picks out of the deal and still be able to get what we want.

Well, we all want that. I just wish we could get it.

[Chris Luva Luva]

LOL, Im serious. Come on guys, I rarely show optimism anymore, get it while U can.

[fredp45]

I'd like to trade down 2 or 3 times and get 4 @ 2nd round picks...Here's why:

We can fill 4 holes
They make less money and hardly impact our cap
There's less pressure on a 2nd rounder than a 1st rounder
If you miss on a couple, you still have two starters.

Anyone like it?

[Skinsfan55]

I dont really pay attention to the draft.

How is the top 10 shaping up? Are there a lot of big names involved?

I want to see us trade down 2-3 spots, get about 3 picks out of the deal and still be able to get what we want.

Well, we all want that. I just wish we could get it.

Isn't that what happened when we got Champ Bailey? The Aint's were so desperate to get Ricky Williams, they traded the farm to move up like three spots, lol.

I suppose if Calvin Johnson slid down to number 6 there might be SOMEONE stupid enough to bend over for us... but I doubt it. We ought to hold our ground and get one of those stud DL's. It's pretty rare that your biggest need presents itself so easily in the draft.

[crazyhorse1]

The more I look at it, the more I hope that we go with a defensive end and leave a DT to free agency or later in the draft.

I agree. It's more desirable to replace Daniels at end than pick up Branch.
If we get the DE, we'll still have Golston and possibly Daniels at DT. I'm curious how much pressure Adams and Daniels can create if a fresh Daniels spelling Golston and Adams rush together from one side. I also think Cater and Griffin will be tough on QB's from the other.

Our money for FA's should be spent on an MLB and a CB.

[crazyhorse1]

I'd like to trade down 2 or 3 times and get 4 @ 2nd round picks...Here's why:

We can fill 4 holes
They make less money and hardly impact our cap
There's less pressure on a 2nd rounder than a 1st rounder
If you miss on a couple, you still have two starters.

Anyone like it?

No. We can get at least 2 FA's we know can play. The draft is still a crap shoot, especially after the first round. We'd be lucky if two 2nd rounders worked out and then we'd have 2nd rounders rather than one of the county's best players.

[PulpExposure]

[Branch is a mountain and will draw double teams all the time. Our other lineman are going to benefit from that.

Except in the pass rush, which we set a Redskins record in futility for.

Branch will bring nothing to the pass rush, and I think we're in more desperate need there than anywhere on our team.

[KazooSkinsFan]

[Branch is a mountain and will draw double teams all the time. Our other lineman are going to benefit from that.

Except in the pass rush, which we set a Redskins record in futility for.

Branch will bring nothing to the pass rush, and I think we're in more desperate need there than anywhere on our team.

I think you mean on passing downs not just in general pass rush. In normal pass rush he will help by drawing OL attention opening room for the DEs and blitzes. On running downs he will be a big clog in the middle.

On passing downs I agree, the other team's not going to double him because he's not going to get to the QB quickly. But OK, he has strengths and weaknesses. True. So do all the players, that's why the NFL is so specialized and why the rosters aren't comprised of 22 players.

We had issues on run and pass you may have noticed and Gibbs has said he starts with running and stopping the run. I agree with him. That doesn't mean we stop with that, we start with it.

But I do agree Jamal Anderson sounds very good and I would take him if he's available, but what I've heard is he won't.

[Houligan26]

[quote="PulpExposure"][quote="KazooSkinsFan"][Branch is a mountain and will draw double teams all the time. Our other lineman are going to benefit from that.[/quote]

Except in the pass rush, which we set a Redskins record in futility for.

Branch will bring nothing to the pass rush, and I think we're in more desperate need there than anywhere on our team.[/quote]

I am sorry but I am not sure how much you have seen Branch play. Take it from someone that never misses a Michigan game. The guy is an impact on every play and would help in the pass rush. He can collapse the pocket, he is incredible at batting balls (he is 6'6) and amazingly he closes pretty well for a guy who is over 320 lbs. He will make life easier for everybody surrounding him.

[PulpExposure]

I am sorry but I am not sure how much you have seen Branch play. Take it from someone that never misses a Michigan game. The guy is an impact on every play and would help in the pass rush. He can collapse the pocket, he is incredible at batting balls (he is 6'6) and amazingly he closes pretty well for a guy who is over 320 lbs. He will make life easier for everybody surrounding him.

Oh come on. It's one thing to dominate college lines and a whole other mess in the pros. I mean hell, Tony Mandarich dominated big time in college. But his strength wasn't good enough alone in the Pros. Branch won't have that massive strength/size advantage in the pros; for instance, he's smaller than many starting guards like the Eagles Shawn Andrews.

But he was bigger/stronger than every guard he faced in college. Different ball game completely.

I was basing my opinion on history. There are very few defensive tackles in the NFL who generate a passrush on their own. And most of those are the smaller, quick DTs, the guys who are 300 or under. Move tackles, like 285 pound Roderick Coleman, or the Vikings 304 pound Kevin Williams, are the ones who get to the QB. Bigger guys, like Pat Williams or last year's monster DT Ngata, are great run stuffers but are most often taken out in passing downs.

Massive DTs on the whole aren't great passrushers. They're just not quick enough.

[fredp45]

Crazyhorse -- I was just kidding about trading our 1st rounder for 4 @ 2nd rounders... I know the Skins would never do that. A team that would do that and it's worked for them is NE. They stockpile picks and reload year after year -- and at the same time, not overpaying to keep their stars. It's actually a really good model that I have no hope the Skins will mimick! It's very possible that NE lets their super CB - Samuels walk and then pick 2 CBs in the 1st or 2nd round (with their 3 picks there) and no one will tell the difference. That front office is so impressive it amazes me. Lots of credit is given to their coach and QB, I give it to their GM and scouts... I never thought anyone would do a better job drafting than Pittsburgh, but NE has for the past 5-7 years.

Mandarich was good in college because he juiced and when he entered the NFL he couldn't do that.

A super big dominating DT may not get the stats (sacks) but if he's taking on two OL, it leaves someone else free on the line to make the play. Right now, poor Griffin gets doubled the whole game...Branch would take some pressure off Griff, which would allow him to show his sacking ability.

Our problems last year were mainly our front 4 (in prior posts I've blamed the front 7 but it begins up front). We couldn't stop the run and our lb's and db's were making far too many tackles down field on a guy in full stride. If we add Branch all of a sudden we have options on our line. Daniels and Branch on the left side with Griff and Carter on the right. Wynn, Evans, Golstein and Montgomery become a good 2nd team.

Next year we use our 2nd rounder a left DE that can start, eventually.

[brad7686]

I am sorry but I am not sure how much you have seen Branch play. Take it from someone that never misses a Michigan game. The guy is an impact on every play and would help in the pass rush. He can collapse the pocket, he is incredible at batting balls (he is 6'6) and amazingly he closes pretty well for a guy who is over 320 lbs. He will make life easier for everybody surrounding him.

Oh come on. It's one thing to dominate college lines and a whole other mess in the pros. I mean hell, Tony Mandarich dominated big time in college. But his strength wasn't good enough alone in the Pros. Branch won't have that massive strength/size advantage in the pros; for instance, he's smaller than many starting guards like the Eagles Shawn Andrews.

But he was bigger/stronger than every guard he faced in college. Different ball game completely.

I was basing my opinion on history. There are very few defensive tackles in the NFL who generate a passrush on their own. And most of those are the smaller, quick DTs, the guys who are 300 or under. Move tackles, like 285 pound Roderick Coleman, or the Vikings 304 pound Kevin Williams, are the ones who get to the QB. Bigger guys, like Pat Williams or last year's monster DT Ngata, are great run stuffers but are most often taken out in passing downs.

Massive DTs on the whole aren't great passrushers. They're just not quick enough.

I agree completely, Branch will not aid much in the pass rush until he develops better technique. He is quite athletic though and would require double coverage, which also hurts his pass rushing. You don't draft tackles to rush the passer though. He would give the LB's a better chance to rush. If we were to draft a tackle that can pass rush it would probly have had to be Glenn Dorsey, who didn't come out. Okoye also might be an impact pass rusher.

[Skinsfan55]

I agree completely, Branch will not aid much in the pass rush until he develops better technique. He is quite athletic though and would require double coverage, which also hurts his pass rushing. You don't draft tackles to rush the passer though. He would give the LB's a better chance to rush. If we were to draft a tackle that can pass rush it would probly have had to be Glenn Dorsey, who didn't come out. Okoye also might be an impact pass rusher.

You sort of answered your own concerns in this post.

Branch may or may not be an effective pass rusher, but if he requires double coverage he would be opening up the game big time for the ends and linebackers, maybe even the occasional safety blitz.

You brushed up against this conclusion before discarding it.

I don't care if Branch would be the one actually getting sacks or directly applying pressure (though I do think he would bat down his share of balls at the line) if he's indirectly making the pass rush better.

IMO, a tackle like Branch could make the pass rush a lot better than any one end, or linebacker because he'd open the door for ALL pass rushers.

(Of course, he could be a bust, but if he's as good as we think... this is pretty possible.)

[PulpExposure]

I agree completely, Branch will not aid much in the pass rush until he develops better technique. He is quite athletic though and would require double coverage, which also hurts his pass rushing. You don't draft tackles to rush the passer though. He would give the LB's a better chance to rush. If we were to draft a tackle that can pass rush it would probly have had to be Glenn Dorsey, who didn't come out. Okoye also might be an impact pass rusher.

You sort of answered your own concerns in this post.

Branch may or may not be an effective pass rusher, but if he requires double coverage he would be opening up the game big time for the ends and linebackers, maybe even the occasional safety blitz.

You brushed up against this conclusion before discarding it.

I don't care if Branch would be the one actually getting sacks or directly applying pressure (though I do think he would bat down his share of balls at the line) if he's indirectly making the pass rush better.

IMO, a tackle like Branch could make the pass rush a lot better than any one end, or linebacker because he'd open the door for ALL pass rushers.

(Of course, he could be a bust, but if he's as good as we think... this is pretty possible.)

Except, if he isn't a passrush threat, they won't double him on passing downs. So your argument is inapplicable here.