Is it as easy as 12%

DarthMonk · Post by **DarthMonk** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 2:21 pm

Maryland coach Ralph Fridge has a formula (major mistakes divided by total plays) that has a high correlation to victory. If the result is under 12% you win. Else you lose. Major mistakes include penalties, turnovers, and drops. I don't have the drops but in our 9 games these are the results:

Minnesota: 7/53 = 13% = loss

Dallas: 11/59 = 18% = loss

Houston: 8/68 = 11% = win

Jags: 6/70 = 5% = win

Giants: 5/45 = 11% = loss

Titans: 8/56 = 14% = loss

Colts: 10/63 = 15% = loss

Dallas: 6/56 = 10% = win

Eags: 9/63 = 14% = loss

The only time we were under 12% and LOST was against the Giants. Maybe we had a few drops and/or a missed chip shot. Is it really this simple? Seems so. How about we stop committing silly penalties (infractions) and hold onto the ball? I bet we'd win a lot!

DarthMonk

JansenFan · Post by **JansenFan** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 2:52 pm

I saw the thread and thought this was talking about the winning percentage of my picks in Hognostications. :oops:

Freidgen is no dummy. He's been around the game a long time, and it's no surprise that he's figure something like this out.

Irn-Bru · Post by **Irn-Bru** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 2:56 pm

Are the total plays just from offense? (They seem low for a full game). If so, are defensive / special teams penalties counted in with offensive penalties, turnovers, and drops?

I like the idea but I'm not really clear on the terms.

JansenFan · Post by **JansenFan** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 3:00 pm

It is my belief that this only takes into account offense.

Irn-Bru · Post by **Irn-Bru** » Fri Nov 17, 2006 3:03 pm

JansenFan wrote:It is my belief that this only takes into account offense.

If that's true then the numbers would have to be revised (i.e. Monk listed 11 penalties for the Dallas game, but that was both offense and defense). Of course, drops haven't been counted either so those numbers could be close.

It seems strange, though, that isolating the offense like that would give you a key statistic for determining why you won or lost. . .

DarthMonk · Post by **DarthMonk** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:52 am

"The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.

Through the years, Friedgen said the formula's accuracy is around 95 percent. In the past two years at Maryland, its accuracy has been closer to 90 percent.

"I would say it's a direct correlation," Terrapins wide receivers coach Bryan Bossard said.

This season, the formula has helped the Terrapins thrive despite what Friedgen called "limitations."

"If you don't beat yourselves, you give the opportunity to the other team to beat themselves," Friedgen said."

It looks like all stats are for offense except, perhaps, penalties.

DarthMonk

EA7649 · Post by **EA7649** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 8:57 pm

very interesting and smart, wonder if formula for defense and combine them.

ComebackSkins · Post by **ComebackSkins** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:43 pm

I remember him on 980 talking about this, but he said it only applied to the defense because the numbers did not work out very well on offense (for his team), or something to that effect.