riggofan wrote:So here's another hypothetical, what would you do question for you:
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State Scout Inc's #8 player on the big board
Falls to #21.
You taking him?
Ummm... yes... unless someone really want's to dance... There are a few teams that may overpay. A money RB is the best protection your QB can have.
"That's a clown question, bro" - - - - - - - - - - Bryce Harper, DC Statesman "But Oz never did give nothing to the Tin Man That he didn't, didn't already have" - - - - - - - - - - Dewey Bunnell, America
Countertrey wrote:Ummm... yes... unless someone really want's to dance... There are a few teams that may overpay. A money RB is the best protection your QB can have.
I think you have to if SM truly believes in BPA wouldn't he be the BPA at 21?
That's what I was thinking too. It seems like at 21 you might be looking at a number of guys who are fairly even BPA. Sort of like where we were with Scherff and Leonard Williams where both players were solid and either one could have made sense for the team.
But if a guy like Zeke falls into your lap and is a guy who could truly be an elite impact player on the team, it shouldn't even be a question.
Just curious what other people thought. I could see in that scenario fans getting pissy about it because we have needs on defense or whatever.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
TOTALLY on board with taking Elliott ... somebody this good is going to be there - he makes it easy to trade down or we take him
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock wrote:TOTALLY on board with taking Elliott ... somebody this good is going to be there - he makes it easy to trade down or we take him
Aha! Finally found a player at #21 that you would prefer to take than trade?
The more I look at this draft and that spot, I think I've narrowed my wish list down to one thing. If we don't trade down I'm kind of hoping for one of these Alabama guys. I don't care which one. Reggie Ragland, Ryan Kelly, Jarron Reed, A'Shawn Robinson. Whichever one Scot thinks is best.
Beast conference. Beast team. I think you're pretty much guaranteed to get a quality starter from any of those four, and two or three of them could be on the board at our pick. Don't mess around or overthink it.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
The only time I saw Ohio State play last year was against Michigan State and Elliot couldn't get out his own backfield. Elliot wasn't used much in the second half. It was a cold, rainy day tailor made for a monster running back. If Elliot is such a special talent why didn't he produce when needed and why didn't Urban Meyer believe in Elliot enough to run him 30+ times because he knew Elliot would carry the Buckeyes to victory?
The game was tight until the very end when Ohio State lost on a late field goal yet Meyer gave up on Elliot? Elliot bitched about it afterwards to the national media and then announced he was going pro before the end of the season. I'm sure that isn't the whole story with Elliot but it's the part of his story that I know so I'm not impressed and I came away thinking Urban Meyer isn't a true believer in Elliot.
I'd rather see the Skins use their 1st round pick for another offensive lineman in 2016 if a high quality one is available. The 2015 line didn't open up enough holes I want to see them invest another high lineman year.
Last edited by OldSchool on Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I actually think Scott is smart enough to pick for need as well. I actually think Scott goes with both need and value. Whatever makes sense when it's our turn to pick. Like Tre mentioned teams are over valuing this year's qb and Oline prospects. With the top tier talent being mostly defensive prospects. That should give us a good shot at a starter at #21. Plenty of DL,LB,DB talent this year. I like Alabamas C I wouldn't mind us getting the young fella.
I know Scott has said BPA. However it's a perfect smokescreen or alibi on whoever you pick. Even if you pick for need. Much smarter to get leverage in case we need it. Unlike a team who obviously needs a Qb and then reaches on a pick. I think the Rams n Eagles are reaching.
OldSchool wrote:The only time I saw Ohio State play this year was against Michigan State and Elliot couldn't get out his own backfield in that and wasn't used much in the second half. It was a cold rainy day tailor made for running a monster back 30+ times. If Elliot is such a special talent why didn't he produce and Meyer ride him to a victory? Elliot bitched about it afterwards to the national media and then announced he was going pro before the end of the season. I'm sure that isn't the whole story with Elliot but it's the part of his story that I know so I'm not impressed.
I'd rather see the Skins use their 1st round pick for another offensive lineman in 2016 if a high quality one is available. The 2015 line didn't open up enough holes I want to see them invest another high lineman year.
OldSchool wrote:The only time I saw Ohio State play this year was against Michigan State and Elliot couldn't get out his own backfield in that and wasn't used much in the second half. It was a cold rainy day tailor made for running a monster back 30+ times. If Elliot is such a special talent why didn't he produce and Meyer ride him to a victory? Elliot bitched about it afterwards to the national media and then announced he was going pro before the end of the season. I'm sure that isn't the whole story with Elliot but it's the part of his story that I know so I'm not impressed.
I'd rather see the Skins use their 1st round pick for another offensive lineman in 2016 if a high quality one is available. The 2015 line didn't open up enough holes I want to see them invest another high lineman year.
This is what I think we need, top priority.
Don't know if its top priority, but you'll hear no complaints from me if we take Ryan Kelly, C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
I'm totally on board with taking the best player available at 21 - HOWEVER - I do think that a number of really good to future great players will be there and this will make trading down easier which is the best thing for this franchise
we could have 20 picks in the 5th round and I would love it - I'm all in with this FO
btw - wasn't Norman a 5th round pick? and ... didn't Brady go in the 6th ...
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock wrote:I'm totally on board with taking the best player available at 21 - HOWEVER - I do think that a number of really good to future great players will be there and this will make trading down easier which is the best thing for this franchise
we could have 20 picks in the 5th round and I would love it - I'm all in with this FO
btw - wasn't Norman a 5th round pick? and ... didn't Brady go in the 6th ...
Pointing to the ultra rare exceptions does not make your case at all. You're far more likely to get an impact player in the first round than in the third round. End of story. We can trade down in the later rounds to add picks. We need elite talent.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
the only case I'm 'making' is that the more picks we have the better and it really does not matter if none of them are in the first round or the top 50 for that matter - there are many, many elite NFL players that are taken outside of the top 50
I'm fine with using the pick but I'd prefer getting 12 or more picks outside of the top 50
by adding a lot of good players we have a better chance of finding more than 1 elite player
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock wrote:the only case I'm 'making' is that the more picks we have the better and it really does not matter if none of them are in the first round or the top 50 for that matter - there are many, many elite NFL players that are taken outside of the top 50
I'm fine with using the pick but I'd prefer getting 12 or more picks outside of the top 50
by adding a lot of good players we have a better chance of finding more than 1 elite player
Fine, but I just completely disagree with this. The first round pick is way more valuable than you're allowing for. You don't trade away an impact, day one starter to pick up three later round guys who might develop at some point. You can replace a fourth round *maybe* guy with a free agent off the street. You can't easily replace a first round guy that way. We see what is just cost us with Josh Norman.
Scot may trade down from that first round pick, but I'm willing to bet it won't be further than into the second round where he can still get a top 50 player.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
We may end up having a top 50 pick but we're going to add picks - the more we can get the better our chances of adding more good players
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock wrote:We may end up having a top 50 pick but we're going to add picks - the more we can get the better our chances of adding more good players
That's not the question at hand. That's a completely different statement from what you wrote before: "it really does not matter if none of them are in the first round or the top 50 for that matter"
That first round pick DOES matter.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
SkinsJock wrote:We may end up having a top 50 pick but we're going to add picks - the more we can get the better our chances of adding more good players
That's not the question at hand. That's a completely different statement from what you wrote before: "it really does not matter if none of them are in the first round or the top 50 for that matter" - That first round pick DOES matter.
maybe to you, not to me We shall see - if a really top value player falls to 21 & the 'offer' is good enough - we're trading that pick - I am totally fine with that
Richard Sherman was another of those "ultra rare exceptions" ... funny how often these great players are available below the top 50
this FO and our present talent evaluators need as many picks as we can get and the more value the better the deal for us
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
riggofan wrote:That's not the question at hand. That's a completely different statement from what you wrote before: "it really does not matter if none of them are in the first round or the top 50 for that matter"
That first round pick DOES matter.
Agreed...the difference is as plain as Gurly (a first rounder) vs. Matt Jones (a third rounder) Yes you can find players in later rounds but your batting avg. is muct better, the higher the pick!
"Sean Taylor is hands down the best athlete I've ever coached it's not even close" Gregg Williams 2005 Mini-Camp
SkinsJock wrote:We shall see - if a really top value player falls to 21 & the 'offer' is good enough - we're trading that pick - I am totally fine with that
If a team makes a great trade offer, then yes of course you take it. But a great trade offer isn't about just getting MORE picks. Getting four fifth and sixth round picks doesn't replace a first round pick. I don't care how good Richard Sherman is.
If the Titans offer two second round picks for our #21 pick, then yes that is a different story.
SkinsJock wrote:Richard Sherman was another of those "ultra rare exceptions" ... funny how often these great players are available below the top 50
Sorry but he is a rare exception whether you put it in quotes or not. These numbers aren't that hard too find. Here's the % of success rate in the NFL based on round drafted:
Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
You don't have to be an elite NFL GM to see why the 1st round pick is so important.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
DEHog wrote:Agreed...the difference is as plain as Gurly (a first rounder) vs. Matt Jones (a third rounder) Yes you can find players in later rounds but your batting avg. is muct better, the higher the pick!
Exactly, man. I don't know why this is so hard to understand. And Gurley is an impact player. He's a one man, make a difference on the field guy.
I'm glad that Scot has the ability to find Kyshoen Jarrett's in the draft. But four Kyshoens don't equal one Todd Gurley.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
I did a mock this morning to show how a team can keep its early picks, and still add players late. This is one of those boards where Zeke falls to 21. Not something I think is likely, but whatever. That's a guy that I would take at 21.
21: R1P21 RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT OHIO STATE
53: R2P22 DE CARL NASSIB PENN STATE
84: R3P21 WR TYLER BOYD PITTSBURGH
151: R5P12 S JAYRON KEARSE CLEMSON
158: R5P19 DT D.J. READER CLEMSON
191: R6P16 OLB TERRANCE SMITH FLORIDA STATE
232: R7P11 DT NILE LAWRENCE-STAMPLE FLORIDA STATE
242: R7P21 DE ROMEO OKWARA NOTRE DAME
243: R7P22 G JORDAN WALSH IOWA
249: R7P28 S TEVIN CARTER UTAH
250: R7P29 S DERRICK KINDRED TCU
Traded the FOURTH round pick to add an extra 5th and 6th. Then traded one of those 6th rounders for more picks in the 7th. Ended up with 11 picks total.
Forget about the players themselves, you can see those extra picks in the seventh round are just "guys". Might make the practice squad if they're lucky. Those first three rounds are players who Scot should be able to nail down no problem.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
I don't think you understand that I do understand ...
I'd love to get a future great player at 21 but I think that these guys will look to make a trade first
I see these guys continuing to build this team based on what these guys are sure will help this franchise in the long term
they want to have as many good players as they can, regardless of positional needs, at this time
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
SkinsJock wrote:I don't think you understand that I do understand ...
Dude you can't blame me for taking what you post literally.
SkinsJock wrote:I'd love to get a future great player at 21 but I think that these guys will look to make a trade first
I keep seeing the suggestion about possibly trading with the Browns or Titans who have those early second round picks. That would be my personal best case scenario. A trade down that left us with four picks in the first three rounds.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
it's amazing how different things are in such a relatively short amount of time - we are so lucky to have guys in charge here that have a plan and know what it takes to make it all work PLUS we have a very good group of talent evaluators in the building as well
with most franchises there is a certain amount of importance placed on where you were drafted - if you are on the Redskins roster, the undrafted or low round draft choice has been given a spot because he looks like he could help the franchise and if he makes the effort and shows up on film, it does not matter where he came from - that is why I have so much confidence in our lower round and undrafted players - they are no longer just here - these FO guys & talent evaluators are really, really good
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
riggofan wrote:I did a mock this morning to show how a team can keep its early picks, and still add players late. This is one of those boards where Zeke falls to 21. Not something I think is likely, but whatever. That's a guy that I would take at 21.
21: R1P21 RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT OHIO STATE
53: R2P22 DE CARL NASSIB PENN STATE
84: R3P21 WR TYLER BOYD PITTSBURGH
151: R5P12 S JAYRON KEARSE CLEMSON
158: R5P19 DT D.J. READER CLEMSON
191: R6P16 OLB TERRANCE SMITH FLORIDA STATE
232: R7P11 DT NILE LAWRENCE-STAMPLE FLORIDA STATE
242: R7P21 DE ROMEO OKWARA NOTRE DAME
243: R7P22 G JORDAN WALSH IOWA
249: R7P28 S TEVIN CARTER UTAH
250: R7P29 S DERRICK KINDRED TCU
Traded the FOURTH round pick to add an extra 5th and 6th. Then traded one of those 6th rounders for more picks in the 7th. Ended up with 11 picks total.
Forget about the players themselves, you can see those extra picks in the seventh round are just "guys". Might make the practice squad if they're lucky. Those first three rounds are players who Scot should be able to nail down no problem.
This is really good Riggo and it speaks to what SM likes to do, Keep his high picks then trade back for more picks in later rounds. More picks equals better chance at landing a steal in the later rounds. I think SM said something to the effect he likens it to a baseball player getting more swings.
"Sean Taylor is hands down the best athlete I've ever coached it's not even close" Gregg Williams 2005 Mini-Camp
DEHog wrote:This is really good Riggo and it speaks to what SM likes to do, Keep his high picks then trade back for more picks in later rounds. More picks equals better chance at landing a steal in the later rounds. I think SM said something to the effect he likens it to a baseball player getting more swings.
Makes perfect sense to me. Those first two picks should be low risk, nearly can't miss guys for someone like McCloughan. Picking up more late round guys improves his odds of finding the diamond in the rough.
SkinsJock wrote:it's amazing how different things are in such a relatively short amount of time - we are so lucky to have guys in charge here that have a plan and know what it takes to make it all work PLUS we have a very good group of talent evaluators in the building as well
I try hard not to get sucked into the Cult of the Infallible Scot (TM). But listening to his press conference at lunch today, its hard not to be impressed by him. He just speaks differently than most of the other GMs out there. He sounds more like I'd expect of a scout or a coach than an NFL exec. That interaction today between him and Chris Baker? I just don't know if you'd see that on many other teams right now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "You can't do epic **** with basic people." - DJax "We're on the rise, man, whether you're on the train or not." - Josh Norman
