Redskins Playoff Possibilties

[Steve Spurrier III]

I know it's a long shot, but it's fun to think about. I believe I have done this correctly, but if I haven't, someone please correct me.

Currently, the Redskins are tied for thirteenth in the conference, and need to leapfrog their way to sixth. To have any chance of making the playoffs, the Redskins obviously need to win out the rest of their season, so let's assume that happens and the Redskins finish 8-8.

Thanks to the NFL tiebreakers (which can be found at: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers ), the Redskins will finish ahead of Arizona, New Orleans and Dallas, so we can throw them out right now. Atlanta and Philadelphia already have at least nine wins, so they are out of reach.

That leaves Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, St. Louis, New York, Chicago, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Carolina standing between the Skins and a playoff berth. The divisions complicates this a bit, but in order for the Redskins to make the playoffs, these six of these seven things need to happen:

1. Bears lose at least one more game
2. Lions lose at least one more game
3. Buccaneers lose at least one more game
4. Giants lose two more games
5. Panthers lose twice, or Panthers lose to Buccaneers, or Redskins have better strength of victory than Panthers
6. Rams lose to Eagles, another team, and Redskins have better strength of victory than Rams OR Seahawks lose to both Cowboys and Vikings, and another team
7. Vikings lose at least three games OR Packers lose final four games

Some of these appear probable, and none of them are out of the realm of possibility. But combining them all together the chances of the Skins making the playoffs are clearly very low. But there is still a chance, and that is enough for me.

Like I said, this probably isn't perfect, but I'm confident it's pretty close. If (when) the Redskins win next Sunday, I'll update our status on this...

[PHILADELPHIAEAGLES]

Irrational thinking will not get you past the EAGLES

[die cowboys die]

that's right, our defense will get us past the eagles. we are the only team on earth that can totally shut down McNappy.

[PHILADELPHIAEAGLES]

did you forget what happen a couple weeks ago? coming off a "big win" from the Midgets at that, your 3rd at that...isnt reason enough to think you have any chance next week. We beat you and teams way better than you already this year.

[THE RAM]

Eagles fan, just want to tell you something "THE RAM IS BACK", and just to let you know you won't win the superbowl and that's enough for me, why you won't win because about 50 million people saw how the eagles can't match with the strong teams with the AFC, you lost by 21 or something like that hahahahah, and in three months from know we'll still have 3 superbowls against 0 of yours.
Too good for me and to bad for you.

[PHILADELPHIAEAGLES]

We beat you by 22 hahahahahahah quit livin in the past.

[HEROHAMO]

Hey spurrier I thought you where In South Carolina?

[SkinsLaVar]

awww.. the Figglies. Good solid team. Superbowls?? nah. Will they ever win a superbowl?? Nah. AHAHAAH bitz.

[hkHog]

Hey, and even if you win the Super Bowl, which you won't, that means you still have two to go to match the 'Skins. Face it, you're still the big losers of the division, everyone else has multiple Super Bowl victories. Too bad the Cardinals left the division, huh?

Just rubbing it in while you're in hostile territory. Good luck! HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHA

[hkHog]

I know it's a long shot, but it's fun to think about. I believe I have done this correctly, but if I haven't, someone please correct me.

Currently, the Redskins are tied for thirteenth in the conference, and need to leapfrog their way to sixth. To have any chance of making the playoffs, the Redskins obviously need to win out the rest of their season, so let's assume that happens and the Redskins finish 8-8.

Thanks to the NFL tiebreakers (which can be found at: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers ), the Redskins will finish ahead of Arizona, New Orleans and Dallas, so we can throw them out right now. Atlanta and Philadelphia already have at least nine wins, so they are out of reach.

That leaves Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, St. Louis, New York, Chicago, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Carolina standing between the Skins and a playoff berth. The divisions complicates this a bit, but in order for the Redskins to make the playoffs, these six of these seven things need to happen:

1. Bears lose at least one more game
2. Lions lose at least one more game
3. Buccaneers lose at least one more game
4. Giants lose two more games
5. Panthers lose twice, or Panthers lose to Buccaneers, or Redskins have better strength of victory than Panthers
6. Rams lose to Eagles, another team, and Redskins have better strength of victory than Rams OR Seahawks lose to both Cowboys and Vikings, and another team
7. Vikings lose at least three games OR Packers lose final four games

Some of these appear probable, and none of them are out of the realm of possibility. But combining them all together the chances of the Skins making the playoffs are clearly very low. But there is still a chance, and that is enough for me.

Like I said, this probably isn't perfect, but I'm confident it's pretty close. If (when) the Redskins win next Sunday, I'll update our status on this...

BTW, I was checking out your scenarios and I think you're exactly right on in your assessment. Most importantly, I guess we must win four more games but I feel like 1-3 on your list are virtual locks. Four is pretty likely as well. Then again, I guess all these are as likely as that we lose a game too.

Just a couple things:

First, if we go 8-8 that means beating Dallas. If Dallas is 8-8 do we get the tiebraker?

Second, if we go 8-8, then we have to beat the Vikes so we can help ourselves out a bit. Your analysis is correct here, just wanted to throw that in there.

Very nice job compiling the list, I just hope the team can validate your efforts.

[myu]

Believe it or not, if we tie ANY of the teams fighting for a wildcard berth by going 8-8, we win EVERY TIEBREAKER with the exception of the Packers and the Rams, who we have to depend on to lose to at least one NFC team.

If they lose to two NFC teams (three out of their four remaining games are against NFC teams), we beat them. If they only lose one game to a NFC team and one game to the Jets, then it's all math from there.

[Justice Hog]

I'll just make two points:

1. I like the optimism; however, there is no way I'm going to start considering scenerios for the Redskins making the playoffs. That ended when we lost the Bengals game.

2. To all of you Philthy fans, if you think that your team is going to come into D.C. next week a B-slap the Skins, you are surely mistaken. Yes, we beat a weak Giants team....but the best thing to happen to the Skins yesterday was that their offensive players gained confidence.

I'm not saying the Skins will beat the Eagles; however, it should be a close, hard-fought game.

[DESkins]

13-6 going into the 4th quarter does not qualify as the "huge" victory that the iggles fans are calling it... what ended up beating the Redskins a few weeks ago was the officiating, which stunk. I was at that game, and even the iggles fans around me couldn't believe some of the calls that went against the Redskins.

[BringThePain!]

I did the whole scenario thing last night too... but then I told myself there's no need to get excited until we see what happens next week... If we can pull out a win against Philly... then I think we got a shot... The rest of the teams fighting for a spot have some semi-tough schedules to help us out... but if we can't win out... it don't mean squat...

our playoffs start now...

[hogred]

I agree we must beat the Eagles before we start to think about making the playoffs.

If the Eagles are smart they will not go into the game this week thinking it will be the same as the last one.. Things have changed!!

[redskins56]

We beat you by 22 hahahahahahah quit livin in the past.

You beat us by 22, but it was a one-point game with two minutes to go in the third quarter. A controversial pass interference call on the road turned the game around, and while that isn't an excuse, becase we lost fair and square, it was a factor.

To talk trash about beating the second worst team in the conference, after being out played by them for three quarters is pretty freaking stupid. Your MVP caught two passes, and your second most valuable threat was held in check all day.

If I were you I would be doing a lot of talking right now too, because come the playoffs, your mood will change

[SkinsFan4Life]

As long as we have not been mathematically eliminated, I will continue to hope for a playoff spot.

It seems to me that we need to catch and surpass the St. Louis Rams, who are now 6-6. They have CAR, ARI, PHI, and NYJ left on their schedule.

The players and coaches need to focus on one game at a time ... but fans like us can pray and hope for a miracle finish as much as our hearts content.

[Steve Spurrier III]

I hate to do this to everyone, but the Redskins are probably going to be in better shape if the Cowboys beat the Seahawks tonight...

[hkHog]

13-6 going into the 4th quarter does not qualify as the "huge" victory that the iggles fans are calling it... what ended up beating the Redskins a few weeks ago was the officiating, which stunk. I was at that game, and even the iggles fans around me couldn't believe some of the calls that went against the Redskins.

I really think that it was the unsuccessful challenge that turned the whole game around. You could see that that killed our D. They should've been punting and instead score a TD a couple plays later. Earlier in the game I thought that we should have challenged the mark when McNabb got picked up by his head and was bodyslammed to the ground by Sean Taylor, that should have forced a FG, but given the decision on the replay, I guess it wouldn't have helped. They probably would've gotten a better mark.

[cvillehog]

13-6 going into the 4th quarter does not qualify as the "huge" victory that the iggles fans are calling it... what ended up beating the Redskins a few weeks ago was the officiating, which stunk. I was at that game, and even the iggles fans around me couldn't believe some of the calls that went against the Redskins.

I really think that it was the unsuccessful challenge that turned the whole game around. You could see that that killed our D. They should've been punting and instead score a TD a couple plays later. Earlier in the game I thought that we should have challenged the mark when McNabb got picked up by his head and was bodyslammed to the ground by Sean Taylor, that should have forced a FG, but given the decision on the replay, I guess it wouldn't have helped. They probably would've gotten a better mark.

I disagree. I think it was the 3-and-out after the S.Taylor INT that turned the game around.

[Chris Luva Luva]

LOL, I feel like having some fun. Im happy with this season and my team so I'll drive the Superbowl Bandwagon, who'll ride shotgun with me?!

[Steve Spurrier III]

All right! I thought the Cowboys were going to screw us for sure, but we can cross Seattle losing to Dallas off the long list of things the Redskins need to happen...