538.com and the Presidential Race

[DarthMonk]

Here is the latest from 538.com on the presidential election.

Their Polls-plus forecast - What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8 - currently gives Clinton an 81.6% chance of winning the election.

The states currently blue that Trump must flip in order from easiest-to-flip to hardest-to-flip along with Clinton's current chance of winning each are:

Ohio 54.8%
North Carolina 59.8%
Florida 65.4%
Nevada 68.4%
Colorado 82%

The current most frequent electoral outcome is Clinton 357, Trump 179.

The race is far from over but this is how 538 sees it right now.

They nailed the last election in every state thereby nailing the electoral count exactly.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... cast/#plus

[DarthMonk]

Update:

Here is the latest from 538.com on the presidential election.

Their Polls-plus forecast - What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8 - currently gives Clinton an 84.7 % (up from 81.6% a week ago) chance of winning the election.

The states currently blue that Trump must flip in order from easiest-to-flip to hardest-to-flip along with Clinton's current chance of winning each are:

Ohio 58.4% (up from 54.8% a week ago)
North Carolina 63.7% (up from 59.8% a week ago)
Florida 71.2% (up from 65.4% a week ago)
Nevada 72% (up from 68.4% a week ago)
Colorado 87.6% (up from 82% a week ago)

The current most frequent electoral outcome is Clinton 347, Trump 191. This is "better" than last week for Trump as Arizona is a dead heat and is oscillating between them. It is better in that Trump gets more electors. It is worse in that it is a more likely loss for him than it was a week ago.

The race is far from over but this is how 538 sees it right now.

[SkinsJock]

Trump will not be the next President - NO WAY

The electoral college prefers the slimy liar - and they never lose

[Deadskins]

Trump will not be the next President - NO WAY

The electoral college prefers the slimy liar - and they never lose

You do realize the Electors aren't decided until the election, right?

[DarthMonk]

Trump will not be the next President - NO WAY

The electoral college prefers the slimy liar - and they never lose

As opposed to the squeaky clean truth teller.

[DarthMonk]

You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election
By David Wasserman

It’s the morning after the election, and while half the country is waking up breathing a sigh of relief, another large share is disappointed, angry or even panicked. But what demographic voting patterns propelled the winner to victory? How did those patterns play out in the Electoral College map? And what does it mean for the future of American politics?

We decided to take the Swing-O-Matic for a spin to sketch out a few scenarios, imagining how news stories on Nov. 9 will read. Which one will be closest to reality? We’ll find out in about two weeks. In the meantime, we invite you to share your thoughts or choose your own adventure to see how changes in turnout and party preference among different demographic groups may affect the outcome.

1. The Clinton landslide

In a staggering rejection of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, voters last night elected Hillary Clinton as the nation’s first female president, 53 percent to 41 percent — the widest margin in a presidential race since 1984. Clinton swept 30 states totaling 413 electoral votes. In an exclamation point, Clinton carried Arizona, Georgia and even Texas. Repudiating Trump, Utah gave its six electoral votes to conservative independent Evan McMullin.

Clinton’s landslide was fueled by record Democratic support among whites with a college degree, particularly women, as well as heightened turnout from Latino and Asian voters. Clinton won whites with a college degree by 10 percentage points, a huge turnaround from 2012, when Mitt Romney won them by 10 points. Black turnout and support remained steady from 2012, despite fears among Clinton backers that African-American enthusiasm would lag without President Obama on the ballot.

Turnout among Latinos surged from 47 percent to 57 percent, and Clinton won them by a massive 58 points, allowing Clinton to shock Trump in the Lone Star State. After plenty of hype, there was no uptick in turnout or support for Trump among whites without a college degree; he won them by about the same margin as Mitt Romney did. Moreover, support for third-party candidates was just 6 percent, lower than many pre-election polls had predicted.

Down ballot, Democrats swept all seven Senate races rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report, earning a 54 to 46 majority and even defeating Marco Rubio in Florida. They came within five seats of retaking the House, throwing Paul Ryan’s future as speaker into doubt. The magnitude of Clinton’s victory forced Republicans to re-evaluate their long-term national viability: Calling Trump a “cancer on conservatism,” GOP leaders vowed to purge Trump from the party — though it’s unclear they can.


2. Modest Clinton majority

Hillary Clinton became the first woman to win the presidency last night, defeating Donald Trump by a comfortable margin — 50 percent to 42 percent — roughly in line with what polls predicted. Clinton swept all 26 states that President Obama had carried in 2012, plus Arizona, North Carolina and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, for a total of 359 electoral votes. In a stunning repudiation of Trump, Utah gave its six electoral votes to conservative independent Evan McMullin.

Clinton’s bare majority was primarily the product of an attitudinal sea change among whites with a college degree, who supported her by 8 percentage points after supporting Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012. Although Trump boosted turnout of whites without a college degree from 55 percent to 59 percent and black turnout declined slightly from 2012, Latino turnout jumped from 47 percent to 53 percent and Clinton won them by 48 points.

Down ballot, Democrats won a 52-to-48 majority in the Senate, sweeping all Senate races rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report except Florida and Missouri. Democrats also picked up 15 House seats, cutting Speaker Paul Ryan’s margin in half and leaving him with much less room for error. Although Ryan and GOP vice presidential nominee Mike Pence offered Clinton their congratulations, at press time Trump had still not offered a formal concession.


3. 2012 Map redux

After the most toxic and divisive presidential campaign in modern history, Hillary Clinton was elected the nation’s first female president last night, defeating Donald Trump 48 percent to 44 percent. However, in spite of Trump’s scandals and defiance of democratic norms, Clinton managed to win by only about the same 4 percentage point margin that President Obama won by four years ago. Clinton and Trump each won 25 states: Trump turned Iowa and Ohio red, but Clinton turned North Carolina blue, for a total of 322 electoral votes — 10 fewer than Obama picked up in 2012.

The results revealed a historic education gap: Clinton carried whites with a college degree with 52 percent, but Trump carried whites without a college degree with a massive 64 percent — allowing him to carry Iowa, Ohio and even Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, even in defeat. Turnout was down across the board from 2012, save for slight increases among noncollege whites and Latinos. Clinton carried African-American voters by 84 percentage points.

Down ballot, Democrats were on track to control 50 Senate seats to Republicans’ 49, technically enough for a majority because Vice President-elect Tim Kaine would break a tie in Democrats’ favor. Democrats picked up Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, while North Carolina’s race is headed for a recount. Democrats gained 13 House seats, for a total of 201 — the same number they held after the 2012 election.

Republicans immediately split over the outcome: While Trump and many close allies called for investigations into voter fraud, other GOP officials simply warned that Clinton’s lack of a clear majority amounted to a repudiation of both candidates and a mandate to oppose her legislative aims.


4. Narrow Clinton nail-biter

In a much narrower-than-expected victory, Hillary Clinton was elected the nation’s first female president last night, 47 percent to 45 percent. But Donald Trump’s refusal to concede after his surprisingly strong showing threatened to plunge the nation into chaos. Trump carried all 24 states that Mitt Romney won in 2012, plus Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Clinton won just 23 states and barely hung on, thanks to a narrow 278-to-260 edge in electoral votes.

It wasn’t until Philadelphia’s final precincts reported votes around 1 a.m. that Clinton edged ahead in Pennsylvania, its 20 electoral votes barely nudging her across the finish line. In both a defiant speech at Trump Tower and an irate 3 a.m. Twitter rant, Trump accused Democrats of busing Camden, New Jersey, residents to pose as dead Philadelphians. Congressional Republicans joined Trump in calling for an inquiry into voter fraud and late-reporting precincts.

Clinton carried African-Americans by 82 percentage points and Latinos by 46 points. She also carried college-educated whites, a group Romney had won, by 2 points. But turnout among those groups remained fairly stable compared to 2012. Meanwhile, turnout among whites without a college degree spiked from 55 percent to 59 percent — and in a warning shot to elites, Trump carried them by 32 percentage points, a big improvement over Romney’s 22-point margin.

Compounding the chaos, the Senate was still on a knife’s edge. Democrats held Nevada and picked up Illinois, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, guaranteeing them at least 49 seats. But in Pennsylvania, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey’s lead appeared narrow enough for a recount to settle Senate control. In the House, Democrats narrowed the GOP’s majority by 10 seats. Amid civil unrest, it was clear Clinton would have enormous work to do to heal a badly divided nation.


5. Trump shocks the world

In a stunning rebuke of elites, Donald Trump edged out Hillary Clinton for the presidency last night, jolting world markets and sending shock waves across a beleaguered political establishment. Trump captured 294 electoral votes, flipping Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to the GOP column. With millions of votes left to tabulate in California and New York, Clinton was on track to win a worthless popular vote plurality.

After one of the worst polling misses of all time, election “forecasters” and experts were left scratching their heads. Trump credited his “Silent Majority” for swarming polling places and himself for leading a blue-collar revolution. Indeed, turnout among whites without a college degree surged from 55 percent in 2012 to 64 percent in 2016, and Trump carried them by 35 percentage points. Validating the “shy Trump voter” theory, Trump defied expectations by nearly tying Clinton among whites with a college degree.

Democrats faulted third-party “spoilers” and a lack of enthusiasm among their base for Clinton’s loss. Latinos voted for Clinton by 47 percentage points, but their turnout barely increased over 2012. Meanwhile, African-American turnout fell to 56 percent from 63 percent four years ago. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Evan McMullin combined for 11 percent, severely eating into Clinton’s margin among millennials.

Down ballot, Republicans easily held the Senate, sweeping all seven races rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report for a 53-to-47 seat majority — just one seat down from their current tally after losing seats in Illinois and Wisconsin and gaining Nevada. Democrats gained a paltry five House seats, leaving Speaker Paul Ryan with a solid 242-to-193 majority and stirring talk among disappointed Democrats that it’s time for fresh leadership to replace Nancy Pelosi.

Several high-ranking Democrats, haunted by the prospect of reliving their 2000 nightmare and noting that Trump was on track to receive fewer than 45 percent of all votes cast, called for the abolition of the Electoral College. Meanwhile, in his victory speech, Trump immediately praised the integrity of the vote, congratulating state and local officials on their “tremendous” work to ensure a fraud-free election.

[SkinsJock]

the lying scumbag will most likely end up winning the election despite all the terrible things that she's done ...

it's not that big of a deal that the Democratic party wins control of the Senate. only politicians care about S.C. Justices - the Supreme Court Justices do a pretty good job for the most part and they are not as biased or politically biased and stupid as most politicians are

It would be a huge loss if the Republicans lost the House as well - that would serve them right for not doing something about Trump a lot sooner

[TexasCowboy]

According to their electoral #'s Clinton has 316.7 while Trump has 220.2 either way Hillary wins by a
hefty margin even if she doesn't take Ohio which it appears she won't.

[DarthMonk]

Update:

The race has tightened considerably.

Here is the latest from 538.com on the presidential election.

Their Polls-plus forecast - What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8 - currently gives Clinton a 65.6% (down from 84.7% 2 weeks ago) chance of winning the election.

Trump has flipped Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida back to red.

The states currently blue that Trump must flip in order from easiest-to-flip to hardest-to-flip along with Clinton's current chance of winning each are:

Nevada 50.9%
New Hampshire 63.8%

The current most frequent electoral outcome is Clinton 278, Trump 260.

If Nevada flips we are talking Clinton 272, Trump 266.

It could come down to New Hampshire.

[SkinsJock]

It's still a lot more likely that the lying scumbag wins ...

the only good thing to come out of all the recent stuff from the FBI is that it will hurt her chances of winning the house and senate

I do not want Trump to be President but I do want her to have a miserable time trying to get things done

hopefully she gets in and then gets indicted

[Deadskins]

It's still a lot more likely that the lying scumbag wins ...

the only good thing to come out of all the recent stuff from the FBI is that it will hurt her chances of winning the house and senate

I do not want Trump to be President but I do want her to have a miserable time trying to get things done

hopefully she gets in and then gets indicted

The only thing Trump has going for him is that he's not Hillary.

[DarthMonk]

The polling for NV, NC, and FL is oscillating around the 50% mark. Today NV, NC, and FL are light blue again.

If Clinton can win one of these she is much safer. Trump would likely need PA which is a long shot.

BTW - The most likely Senate outcome is 51-49 Dems. The House remains firmly in Republican control.

[Countertrey]

It's still a lot more likely that the lying scumbag wins ...

the only good thing to come out of all the recent stuff from the FBI is that it will hurt her chances of winning the house and senate

I do not want Trump to be President but I do want her to have a miserable time trying to get things done

hopefully she gets in and then gets indicted

... because you want the Joker to be President?

[SkinsJock]

It's still a lot more likely that the lying scumbag wins ...

the only good thing to come out of all the recent stuff from the FBI is that it will hurt her chances of winning the house and senate

I do not want Trump to be President but I do want her to have a miserable time trying to get things done

hopefully she gets in and then gets indicted

... because you want the Joker to be President?

no! but I do have a lot of faith in this country being able to handle just about anyone in the white house and I do want this lying POS to get what she deserves

[TexasCowboy]

hopefully she gets indicted

I doubt she will but in the event it happens? she is going
to sing like a Canary ratting out all her friends both in
the current/former members of congress and the senate
who are guilty of taking bribery money from special interests
then turned a blinds eye to their illegal activities

[Countertrey]

hopefully she gets indicted

I doubt she will but in the event it happens? she is going
to sing like a Canary ratting out all her friends both in
the current/former members of congress and the senate
who are guilty of taking bribery money from special interests
then turned a blinds eye to their illegal activities

... and?

[TexasCowboy]

and?

In case you haven't noticed tension over the state of government is at the breaking point!
and the fear, of over throwing government looms on the horizon, So? if Hillary starts to
name/names that could bring the kind of unwanted *sh$t* storm politicians were fearful of

[Countertrey]

and?

In case you haven't noticed tension over the state of government is at the breaking point!
and the fear, of over throwing government looms on the horizon, So? if Hillary starts to
name/names that could bring the kind of unwanted *sh$t* storm politicians were fearful of

Drain the swamp. I was opposed, but I am increasingly thinking a Convention of States is not a bad idea...

[TexasCowboy]

Drain the swamp. I was opposed, but I am increasingly thinking a Convention of States is not a bad idea...

OK let's go further down the rabbit hole



A New World Order? - organized by the elite that in the case of
civil unrest or outbreak of world war 3 via nuclear arsenal or
invasion establishes this to enter into effect immediately

9/11 was a failed attempt at this, depopulation of the masses
through wars has failed, including Vietnam and the Iraq wars
and now we have the 2016 election? That threatens the very
nerve ending that is dangling and aches to be severed off so
this event/phenomenon can take place

Until? FBI director James Comey dropped this bomb shell today

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbis-comey-says-new-clinton-emails-did-not-change-his-position-205329410.html

My point here and call it a conspiracy if you will..Is simply gutting Washington of career politicians
I agree with you on, (long overdue) is necessary. however had Hillary been indicted for charges
due to allegations against the Clinton foundation which are true. Puts her in the drivers seat to
cause the end of ALL government as we know it and put in something 100 x worse

[SkinsJock]

It's still a lot more likely that the lying scumbag wins ...
hopefully she gets in and then gets indicted

... because you want the Joker to be President?

now that you mention it ... it would be better if Trump got elected and then impeached - Pence is the better choice

[gushogs]

Hi there, on this subject I'm not allowed to express my opinion, since I'm from Panama and not a US citizen. Obviously we do care about politics in the US, since they are not only the top economy in the world, but have been involved with us since the birth of our nation.
I have tried to mix up the sources of the info I gather from the election and the candidates. I checked the entire GOP and Dem primaries, and from the other side of the fence, I can only say I'm sad for Americans to have choose between a egomaniac and a nontrustworthy person.
Polititicians in the entire world have become corrupt to the core and we the citizens are fed up.
Good luck tomorrow!
Augusto J.

[DarthMonk]

Final Prediction:

Clinton carries NV, FL, NC, and NH to win the Electoral College 323 - 215.

Latino vote tips the scales.

[SkinsJock]

my prediction for this election has not changed since Trump was nominated

there is no way that Trump can win an election with an increased hispanic vote count - no way

today's the day and the final result will be very obvious, very early - thank God

[Deadskins]

my prediction for this election has not changed since Trump was nominated

there is no way that Trump can win an election with an increased hispanic vote count - no way

today's the day and the final result will be very obvious, very early - thank God

oops

[SkinsJock]

Praise the Lord