Deadline passes, Cousins will play on franchise tag in 2016

[Irn-Bru]

Cousins can prove he's a $20+ million QB this year.

http://www.redskins.com/news/article-1/ ... 8bbb7b14a0

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

Cousins can prove he's a $20+ million QB this year.

http://www.redskins.com/news/article-1/ ... 8bbb7b14a0

The only quarterbacks making the money he was asking for ($22MM a year) have played at least four years as a starter and have been to Super Bowls.

He's going to have to do a lot more than a first round playoff loss to prove he's a $20MM+ quarterback.

[riggofan]

He's going to have to do a lot more than a first round playoff loss to prove he's a $20MM+ quarterback.

Yeah? A lot more? What's he going to have to do exactly? If he puts up exactly the same numbers he did last year and loses in the first round of the playoffs, you think we're going to let him walk?

I think Kirk is smart to bet on himself this year. There's a lot of talent on that offense. I just don't think he has to be *that* good.

[riggofan]

Here's what Florio wrote in MMQB about it today. I would roll my eyes reading this (come on. Nobody is banking on their sixth round pick as the QB of the future). I've just been so impressed with McCloughan. If he thinks this is the best plan, I'm on board.

It’s not easy to reconcile the team’s willingness to give Cousins nearly $20 million guaranteed for one year but only $24 guaranteed on a multi-year deal. The answer resides in G.M. Scot McCloughan’s quiet confidence that he can find another quarterback with comparable skill for a lot less money.

Cousins wanted $44 million fully guaranteed at signing, roughly the sum of what he would have made under the tag this year ($19.95 million) and next year with a 20-percent raise ($23.94 million). Instead of paying Cousins that much money now, Washington can pay him the $19.95 million now and, if he plays well against this season, the $23.94 million next year. Then, come 2018, Washington will either sign him to a long-term deal based on his open-market value (whatever it may be), use the tag a third time (which is unlikely, given that he’d get a 44-percent raise to $34.47 million), or let him leave and replace him with someone who has been groomed to take over.

The team believes that, by 2017 or 2018, it will have found a quarterback on a slotted, low-money rookie four-year deal who can do what Cousins does, or close to it. That could be 2016 rookie sixth-rounder Nate Sudfeld, or it could be someone else. Regardless, Washington believes that someone younger, cheaper, and just as good if not better can be found, if Cousins still insists after 2016 or 2017 on breaking the bank.

The process definitely entails risk, both that they’re paying Cousins too much this year (e.g., the Ryan Fitzpatrick phenomenon) and that they won’t find someone as good or better. Regardless, with a $19.95 million bird in the hand, Cousins had no reason to accept the offer on a multi-year contract. Now, the challenge for Washington will be to go find its two in the bush, before Cousins flies away.

[SkinsJock]

The 'QB market' will be just as important a factor for this FO in evaluating what they have to pay Cousins - Cousins only has to show that he's a dependable QB this season to get a very good salary offer - he's not getting $22M unless he can show that's what he should get compared to what other comparable QBs are getting - this is a good move for both sides

Scott wants Cousins to show him something more - this is the NFL and while many QBs (and others) are getting a lot more than they're worth this FO has shown that they are all about putting together a good product on the field and not over paying for that to happen

Cousins gets to prove that he's a $22M+/- QB (like he and his camp think he's worth) or he gets $18M - $20M - it's a win win

we may have a much improved product on the field in 2016 - this FO is making sure that we continue getting better

[riggofan]

Scott wants Cousins to show him something more

Maybe. For all we know, maybe he doesn't think Cousins is a franchise QB period?

Either way, I trust McCloughan. I like that he's doing what he thinks is right - not what fans or the media are calling on him to do. (And hopefully not what Dan Snyder is telling him to do either either!)

You won't hear me bitching about any of his decisions once they're made.

[SkinsJock]

McCloughan wants Cousins to show him something ..

Maybe. For all we know, maybe he doesn't think Cousins is a franchise QB period? Either way, I trust McCloughan. I like that he's doing what he thinks is right - not what fans or the media are calling on him to do. (And hopefully not what Dan Snyder is telling him to do either either!)

You won't hear me bitching about any of his decisions once they're made.

me too - he's not infallible but he's certainly taken full advantage of getting this job and he's made a big impact already ... there sure is a lot more accountability from top to bottom since McCloughan came in

this is another season in the NFL - coaches & players here now know that if you show you're worth it, this FO will reward you

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

He's going to have to do a lot more than a first round playoff loss to prove he's a $20MM+ quarterback.

Yeah? A lot more? What's he going to have to do exactly? If he puts up exactly the same numbers he did last year and loses in the first round of the playoffs, you think we're going to let him walk?

I think Kirk is smart to bet on himself this year. There's a lot of talent on that offense. I just don't think he has to be *that* good.

Eight of the top 11 quarterbacks by average salary have been to a Super Bowl. The ones who haven't are Andrew Luck, Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan.

On no planet is Kirk Cousins in their league. His greatest achievement is a 9-7 record in a weak division with a 1st round playoff loss. That's not even Andy Dalton territory.

I know a lot of people are whining about how much Cousins is going to cost later but he's only going to cost that if he earns it. Another 9-7 & 1st round playoff exit isn't going to earn it.

The odds are more that the Redskins finish missing the playoffs and with a top half 1st round draft pick that allows them to pay Cousins a realistic salary about $6MM a year less than what he asked for.

Both sides are gambling but Cousins has a lot more to lose. Another starting QB would be business as usual at Redskins Park.

Having said that, the Redskins front office, the fans, and obviously Cousins himself all want to see him prove he's worth every dollar for which he asked and more.

Everyone would love to say "Yes, we gave him $22MM a year but holy crap, we have a bona fide starter for the first time in fifteen years and one who will be around for a while."

Florio, FWIW, is writing clickbait. He should not be taken seriously, especially over the local writers who have been covering the team daily for decades.

[DarthMonk]

The more important contract extension is Scot's.

Kirk's physical tools are good enough that the only thing truly limiting his ceiling is the mental part of the game. It will be very interesting to see how well he executes the position this year.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

The more important contract extension is Scot's.

Kirk's physical tools are good enough that the only thing truly limiting his ceiling is the mental part of the game. It will be very interesting to see how well he executes the position this year.

Replacing Kirk Cousins is as easy as being bad enough to get a decent draft pick. Just because he's the best we've had since Mark Brunell doesn't mean he's actually any better than passable.

Kirk has more to lose than the team has to lose. New starting quarterbacks every year is a Redskins tradition. It wouldn't phase the front office to draft another one.

If Cousins wants $22MM a year he's going to have to get this team to the NFC Championship game this season at minimum.

NFL quarterbacks won't average $22MM a year salaries next season and the front office knows that.

[oj]

This year Cousins has to prove he is capable of winning the SB. I'm not saying he has to even get to the SB but he has to prove that he has the skills in leadership, decision making and ability. If there is any doubt in SM's mind then everybody is wasting their time. I don't think it is about the money, they want to win the SB and start a dynasty. They obviously feel Cousins has the potential or we would have seen his replacement in training. I think he has what it takes.

[riggofan]

This year Cousins has to prove he is capable of winning the SB. I'm not saying he has to even get to the SB but he has to prove that he has the skills in leadership, decision making and ability. If there is any doubt in SM's mind then everybody is wasting their time. I don't think it is about the money, they want to win the SB and start a dynasty. They obviously feel Cousins has the potential or we would have seen his replacement in training. I think he has what it takes.

I understand what you're saying. I think that's a good way to put it.

[Irn-Bru]

A lot of the tumult in estimating Cousins' worth came because Osweiler got a huge deal despite being unproven. But it's possible that he flops next year so badly that GMs suddenly get more conservative when deciding how much to pay a QB. The market for QBs is hotter now than it ever has been in terms of dollars, but that could change next year if the perception is that overpaying for a mediocre player will hurt your team. It'll be interesting to follow the Texan's progress and see how that plays out.

Remember when backup quarterbacks playing behind superstars could fetch a price of a 1st or 2nd round draft pick or a blockbuster contract? Matt Flynn and Matt Cassel were hot commodities coming off the bench to start for other teams. But after they turned out to be busts, teams are a lot more reluctant to trade for an unknown backup. (We even saw this when people were hyping Kirk behind Griffin yet no teams bit on offering to trade for him.)

My point is, the market changes over time as it turns out teams have either overlooked or overpaid for players. Osweiler's handsome contract might very well have been a mistake by the Texans, and if it turns out it was that will actually give the Redskins leverage in their negotiations with Cousins next year.

[Irn-Bru]

This year Cousins has to prove he is capable of winning the SB. I'm not saying he has to even get to the SB but he has to prove that he has the skills in leadership, decision making and ability. If there is any doubt in SM's mind then everybody is wasting their time. I don't think it is about the money, they want to win the SB and start a dynasty. They obviously feel Cousins has the potential or we would have seen his replacement in training. I think he has what it takes.

I think you're right, and I agree. I think Cousins has the 'it' factor.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

A lot of the tumult in estimating Cousins' worth came because Osweiler got a huge deal despite being unproven. But it's possible that he flops next year so badly that GMs suddenly get more conservative when deciding how much to pay a QB. The market for QBs is hotter now than it ever has been in terms of dollars, but that could change next year if the perception is that overpaying for a mediocre player will hurt your team. It'll be interesting to follow the Texan's progress and see how that plays out.

Remember when backup quarterbacks playing behind superstars could fetch a price of a 1st or 2nd round draft pick or a blockbuster contract? Matt Flynn and Matt Cassel were hot commodities coming off the bench to start for other teams. But after they turned out to be busts, teams are a lot more reluctant to trade for an unknown backup. (We even saw this when people were hyping Kirk behind Griffin yet no teams bit on offering to trade for him.)

My point is, the market changes over time as it turns out teams have either overlooked or overpaid for players. Osweiler's handsome contract might very well have been a mistake by the Texans, and if it turns out it was that will actually give the Redskins leverage in their negotiations with Cousins next year.

Osweiler's contract is 15th in total dollars, 15th in average salary per year, 9th in guaranteed money, and 30th in % of guaranteed money.

If Cousins would have signed a contract like that the Redskins would have offered one.

[riggofan]

Osweiler's contract is 15th in total dollars, 15th in average salary per year, 9th in guaranteed money, and 30th in % of guaranteed money.

If Cousins would have signed a contract like that the Redskins would have offered one.

That Houston/Osweiler deal really screwed up the market.

The team offered Cousins $16m/yr and $24m in guarantees at the combine which would have ranked 21 among QBs.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

That Houston/Osweiler deal really screwed up the market.

The team offered Cousins $16m/yr and $24m in guarantees at the combine which would have ranked 21 among QBs.

It did but Cousins would have rejected $18MM a year, which is what Osweiler got for proving absolutely nothing. Cousins has proven marginally more than absolutely nothing and wanted an extra $4 million a year for it. That would have put him in the elite payscale company of three QBs who have won Super Bowls and one who simply got overpaid but who has started ten seasons and made five Pro Bowls. Andrew Luck's contract doesn't count because he was a #1 overall draft pick who has started from day one and is 15 games over .500 even with last season's 2-5 and injured reserve finish. Three 11-5 seasons and three playoff wins in six appearances is so far beyond anything Cousins has done it's not even a discussion.

Osweiler's contract may be an outlier but it did little to affect the actual value of a quarterback whose greatest career achievement is a 9-7 record and a 1st round playoff loss. If Cousins goes 10-6 or better this season with a tougher schedule both inside and out of the division and repeats a division championship, that which no NFC East team has done in recent memory, I'll be leading the "Pay the man!" club but as of right now I'm fully on board with the "You ain't done jack any first round QB we draft couldn't do" mentality.

[riggofan]

That Houston/Osweiler deal really screwed up the market.

The team offered Cousins $16m/yr and $24m in guarantees at the combine which would have ranked 21 among QBs.

It did but Cousins would have rejected $18MM a year, which is what Osweiler got for proving absolutely nothing. Cousins has proven marginally more than absolutely nothing and wanted an extra $4 million a year for it.

You don't know that, and I disagree with how you're framing it.

Cousins - and the team for that matter - basically waited to see what the market was. Once Osweiler set the market at $18m, why should Cousins be expected to take less than that number?

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

That Houston/Osweiler deal really screwed up the market.

The team offered Cousins $16m/yr and $24m in guarantees at the combine which would have ranked 21 among QBs.

It did but Cousins would have rejected $18MM a year, which is what Osweiler got for proving absolutely nothing. Cousins has proven marginally more than absolutely nothing and wanted an extra $4 million a year for it.

You don't know that, and I disagree with how you're framing it.

Cousins - and the team for that matter - basically waited to see what the market was. Once Osweiler set the market at $18m, why should Cousins be expected to take less than that number?

We do know that. His agent was demanding $44MM guaranteed in the first two years of the contract. That's more than $18MM a year.

[DarthMonk]

The more important contract extension is Scot's.

Kirk's physical tools are good enough that the only thing truly limiting his ceiling is the mental part of the game. It will be very interesting to see how well he executes the position this year.

Replacing Kirk Cousins is as easy as being bad enough to get a decent draft pick.

Possibly. Almost definitely true with regard to physical tools.

Just because he's the best we've had since Mark Brunell doesn't mean he's actually any better than passable.

Certainly true.

Kirk has more to lose than the team has to lose. New starting quarterbacks every year is a Redskins tradition. It wouldn't phase the front office to draft another one.

Makes sense.

If Cousins wants $22MM a year he's going to have to get this team to the NFC Championship game this season at minimum.

NFL quarterbacks won't average $22MM a year salaries next season and the front office knows that.

Could be. On the other hand, if we win a wild card game at home and then go and lose at some place like Green Bay because we can't stop them ...

He will certainly have to play very well next year to get the money he wants.

3 things:

1 Extending Scot's contract is more important than extending Kirk's.

2 Kirk's physical tools are good enough that they will not be what limits him. The question is, can he show a Bart Starr-esque command of the offense? If he can, he will be due for a huge deal.

3 Seems like they were pretty far apart. $24 M guaranteed at $16 per was low ball. If he wanted more than $44 M guaranteed and $19 per he was asking for too much.

[DarthMonk]

Someone else's take:

written by Brandon Gdula on Jul 19th, 2016
Follow them at @gdula13

Kirk Cousins Isn't as Replaceable as Washington Thinks He Is

Washington thinks their could-be franchise passer is replaceable, but the metrics say he isn't. Washington thinks their could-be franchise passer is replaceable, but the metrics say he isn't.

NFL teams overpay for quarterbacks all the time. It's just the way the world works.

When you have someone who looks like he might be competent, you have to lock him up just in case he ends up being good. After all, few things can sour a fan base quite like trotting out journeyman after journeyman under center year after year.

So when Washington handed control over to Kirk Cousins, after numerous bouts of potential trade talks in the years prior, to start the 2015 season and he played well, it seemed as though Washington found their man.

But the team was reluctant to give him a long-term deal this offseason, deciding to use the franchise tag on him instead, in part because the team thinks they can find a younger quarterback in the next year or two who can perform at or close to Cousins' level at a cheaper price.

You know, kind of exactly like Cousins did this year by being the most cost-effective passer in the NFL by a landslide.

Good luck finding another Kirk Cousins, Washington.

Cousins' Career

Cousins has dropped back to pass (including sacks) 992 times in his four-year career. His 950 pass attempts have yielded 7,196 passing yards, 47 touchdowns (and a 4.9% touchdown rate) with 30 interceptions (3.2%), earning him an adjusted yards per attempt mark of 7.1 (and 7.7 if we look solely at 2014 and 2015).

Still, that 7.1 career mark makes him one of 17 quarterbacks to maintain an adjusted yards per attempt mark of at least 7.1 over at least 950 attempts since the merger. He's one of 16 to maintain those levels since 2000.

According to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which quantifies a player's impact relative to replacement level (so, pretty fitting here), Cousins has also been great.

Cousins' 992 drop backs have led to 128.28 points above expectation, and on a per-drop back basis, his Passing NEP of 0.13 ranks 11th-best among passers with at least 250 drop backs since 2000.

The top-12 is pretty good company.

Code: Select all

Career Since 2000   Drop Backs   Passing NEP   Passing NEP/P   Passing Success Rate
Peyton Manning   8,538   2203.87   0.26   53.57%
Aaron Rodgers   4,352   986.47   0.23   50.11%
Tom Brady   8,191   1622.41   0.20   50.71%
Drew Brees   8,414   1626.28   0.19   51.49%
Russell Wilson   1,899   366.57   0.19   47.92%
Philip Rivers   5,666   1066.28   0.19   50.18%
Tony Romo   4,584   857.61   0.19   51.61%
Matt Ryan   4,746   793.84   0.17   50.27%
Ben Roethlisberger   5,865   928.81   0.16   49.87%
Rich Gannon   2,046   316.01   0.15   50.68%
Kirk Cousins   992   128.28   0.13   47.98%
Kurt Warner   3,791   485.97   0.13   51.17%

While it's true that Cousins' Passing Success Rate (the percentage of his drop backs that have led to points above expectation) is second-lowest in this group (better than only Russell Wilson's 47.92%), he still stacks up well compared to his peer group at large.

Cousins' Success Rate ranks 19th among the 159 passers with at least 250 drop backs since 2000. This indicates that, while he's been a little more reliant on big plays to boost his NEP than some of the NFL's best passers (i.e. the top 12 in Passing NEP per drop back), he's been one of the best quarterbacks on a play-by-play basis in the last 15 years.

Further, in 2015, Cousins owned a Passing NEP per drop back of 0.24 over 569 drop backs (136.29 total). If you'll recall, that's actually more than his career mark of 128.28 because he was a below-zero passer in 2012, when he attempted 160 drop backs and earning a Passing NEP of -40.71.

You can look at that as a reason to question the authenticity of his recent success, but Cousins has just been good the past two seasons.

In 2014, he racked up 19.58 Passing NEP on 212 drop backs (0.09 per drop back). If we consider Cousins to be who he has been in 2014 and 2015 -- so 155.88 Passing NEP on 781 drop backs with a 50.45% Success Rate -- well, his marks stand up to some of the best passers in the game.

Conclusions

Yes, Cousins is thriving in a pass-happy league, one in which passing efficiency keeps climbing, so his metrics may not be quite as impressive as some of his older counterparts who endured through stingier secondaries.

But he still led Washington to the fourth-best schedule-adjusted passing offense in the NFL according to our metrics in 2015, and that shouldn't be overlooked.

The facts of the matter are that Cousins has posted some nearly unprecedented passing stats in his career and that there's a legitimate chance that he's significantly better than "replaceable."

[SkinsJock]

NO - the facts of the matter are that the guys in charge here OBVIOUSLY do not think that Kirk has what it takes and rather than gamble on that they are willing to give him a chance to prove they are wrong - this is a win win for everyone - Kirk plays well and he gets a great deal - if not, we may even keep him around but we'll be looking for a good QB

Cousins has a great opportunity to solidify himself and these guys will pay for a QB they can build around but they OBVIOUSLY are not certain he is that guy - same goes for the Head Coach and everybody else here - no more "same old Redskins"

I LIKE THAT

let's not forget that McCloughan and this FO did not bring in this HC or this QB - it's time to put up or shut up

repeat as division champs and everybody's happy - if not, it's time to look elsewhere

I LOVE THAT

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

Or we could take the words of Scot McCloughan over those of others:

Appearing Sunday on SiriusXM Bleacher Report Radio with Ty Schalter and Jason Cole, McCloughan was asked about the large number of franchise players who have been unable to reach long-term deals with their teams.

“It’s a very good question, and like I said, it’s part of the business that I don’t like at all, just because you want to take care of your own no matter what,” McCloughan replied. “And there’s a reason why you do franchise them, because you respect their talent and their abilities. But the market’s the market, and some teams will do certain things that throw the market off, so then you’ve got to step back and say, ‘Okay, who do we have next year? [Are] there three to five to seven guys that we want to extend prior to the last year of their deal, or do we want to go after one and know we’re going to lose three or four next year?’

“So it’s a fine line, and like I said, it’s tough, but that’s why we do this,” McCloughan went on. “It’s the market. The NFL’s a phenomenal, phenomenal entity, and the money’s incredible. But the way I look at it is I want Kirk in a long-term deal, no doubt about it, but also I’m not gonna put our franchise in a situation where we’re gonna lose three or four younger guys that I think are gonna be good football players for one guy. I won’t do it. You know, that’s just how it is.

“And the quarterback position’s very, very important, but you know what, so is every other position,” McCloughan said. “We need football players. We need multiple football players, not one.”

That dynamic might not change in 12 months. The price for Cousins isn’t likely to go down next season, absent an on-field disaster, which would present its own complications. So would the team be happy paying Cousins huge dollars in 2017 if he fares well this season?

“The thing about it is, the cap goes up every year, and the market’s the market,” McCloughan said. “And especially the position Kirk plays, it’s pricey, but you pay for production. You get paid to win. I told Kirk, I told his agent, I tell all of our players: It’s not about the individual. It’s the sum of the parts. We have 53 guys on this roster. We’re gonna have 46 playing on Sundays. It’s not about the one individual. Now, like I said, if you produce, as the Washington Redskins, we’ve got no problem paying you — depending on what the market is. But you’ve got to also realize it’s a team sport; it’s not an individual sport.”

McCloughan said he feels “very positive” about Cousins’s leadership and confidence during this offseason, and that the team is “going to be fine” moving forward. He said Cousins is “a good, quality person” and “a good football player,” and that “the players respect him.” He said both sides would have liked to get a deal done, and that “hopefully he’s our quarterback for a long time going forward.” But when asked to repeat that point with some certainty, McCloughan instead highlighted the complexities.

“This is the part I don’t like about the business is the fact that it is a business,” he said. “Money’s money, you know, and you’re gonna have to pay, and certain positions get more than other positions. Again, when it’s all said and done, the thing that’s really cool about Kirk is he’s a leader, he’s a smart guy, he’s a passionate guy, he’s a competitive guy, and it’s very, very, very important to him to be successful. And when it’s all said and done, you get measured by wins and losses; you don’t get measured by financial value.

“When his career’s over, it’s gonna be, ‘Okay, did you win any division championships? Did you win any Super Bowls? What’s your win-loss record?’ ” McCloughan said. “No one’s gonna think 10 years from now, ‘Okay, well he made $50 million, he made $60 million.’ They’re gonna be like, ‘Okay, did he win or not win?’ And that’s the thing that’s so important from my standpoint as the general manager is putting the pieces around him to make sure he’s successful. And [if] we do that, then we’re fine going forward.”

[SkinsJock]

^^ - - we are so VERY fortunate to have McCloughan

[mastdark81]

^^ - - we are so VERY fortunate to have McCloughan

exactly!