2012 Quarterback Class

[mastdark81]

Ranking by pass attempts in a pro system [college + nfl]

Per Pro Football Reference Stats

Pass Attempts - (Years in Pro System)
1. Andrew Luck - 2,877 (6)
2. Russell Wilson - 2,741 (7)
3. Nick Foles - 2,297 (7)
4. Ryan Tannehill - 2,201 (5)
5. Kirk Cousins - 1,535 (7)
6. Robert Griffin - 1,063 (3)

Years with Current Offensive Coordinator
1. Andrew Luck - 3
2. Russell Wilson - 3
3. Nick Foles - 2
4. Ryan Tannehill - 1
5. Kirk Cousins - 1
6. Robert Griffin - 1

What do my fellow Redskins fans make of this. Any trends you see? Any thoughts?

For pass attempts it is kinda weird but in my opinion it is almost the true ranking of the success of the 2012 qb class how they all stand now. You probably can debate the bottom 3. No coincidence that Luck and Wilson notches above with their experience.

[emoses14]

With respect to the Pass attempts (Years in a Pro System), I think all this highlights is the experience amongst the class. Every single QB listed other than RGIII played in a pro style system for all or some of their college careers. Robert's first taste came the day he started his first NFL game.

Without making any judgment one way or the other, the realistic expectation we all pretty much have for his running an NFL offense as well as Luck or Wilson or Foles now, would be sometime toward the end of this year, right? Well, Luck had thrown 1640 pro attempts at the end of his rookie year. The skins averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game last year, so if that were to hold, Griffin would add about 550 attempts to his total bringing him at the end of his 4th year (roughly) to the same point Luck was at the end of his 4th year, except that was the end of his 1st year in the NFL.

In other words, even giving Griffin one more year to get it and be good in a pro system, we're technically still expecting him to be 2 years ahead of Luck.

Just sayin.

[Irn-Bru]

I don't think any of these trends are particularly meaningful. Small sample sizes and no real way to suss out correlation and causation.

[OldSchool]

Would Griffin have won the starting job if he had played at a school that ran a pro attack or would he have be turned into a receiver? I think they will would've turned him in a receiver or he would have transferred to an option program.

[mastdark81]

With respect to the Pass attempts (Years in a Pro System), I think all this highlights is the experience amongst the class. Every single QB listed other than RGIII played in a pro style system for all or some of their college careers. Robert's first taste came the day he started his first NFL game.

Without making any judgment one way or the other, the realistic expectation we all pretty much have for his running an NFL offense as well as Luck or Wilson or Foles now, would be sometime toward the end of this year, right? Well, Luck had thrown 1640 pro attempts at the end of his rookie year. The skins averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game last year, so if that were to hold, Griffin would add about 550 attempts to his total bringing him at the end of his 4th year (roughly) to the same point Luck was at the end of his 4th year, except that was the end of his 1st year in the NFL.

In other words, even giving Griffin one more year to get it and be good in a pro system, we're technically still expecting him to be 2 years ahead of Luck.

Just sayin.

Yeah I think we should know something about RG3 at the end of this year. Should be enough time for him, plus what you want is to see him show continual improvement. I think the ideal situation was for us to draft him behind a vet and let him sit a year or two. I think the problem is trading picks for a guy with little experience within a pro system (thats if you going to run one). I don't think it is fair to compare his drop back game to Luck though or the majority of those qb's because his lack of training in a prototype NFL offense. He is far behind, even with Tannehill, whom played WR 2 years in college.

What I thought was interesting also was Kirk Cousins. I honestly think he should have been given a 50/50 shake at the QB this year. It seems like he needs reps.

Our QBs whether you like Kirk or Robert are behind in development. Speaks to bad organizational philosophy on how to handle a QB. So thats is what ultimately I see out of these stats. RG3 sits out the final 4 games of 2012 and you probably have a entire different scenario today. No one stepped in to protect our investment. Tannehill overall in 3 years have not been much better than Robert or Kirk (has good defense), yet there is no controversy there, they support and embrace him and have allowed him to get MAX development with same HEAD COACH, 2 years of the same offensive coordinator, and a QB coach each of his first 3 years.

Same with Luck. In his second year they bring in his offensive coordinator from college he had the most success with. So you take a QB like Luck who was the safest QB in the 2012 class and you provide him with his best assets. It is like if we brought in Briles to be the offensive coordinator for Robert. Don't you think he would have more success compared to with our current young coordinator?

Anyway, I think we can both agree to this year being very critical for both QBs.

[mastdark81]

Would Griffin have won the starting job if he had played at a school that ran a pro attack or would he have be turned into a receiver? I think they will would've turned him in a receiver or he would have transferred to an option program.

Thats interesting but you could be right. I think he said himself something to the effect that they said he couldn't play QB back then. Maybe why he went to Baylor.

[mastdark81]

I don't think any of these trends are particularly meaningful. Small sample sizes and no real way to suss out correlation and causation.

I hear you but it isn't a small sample size. It is 4 years of college (if applicable) and 3 years of NFL worth of data. How would you rank the QBs? No coincidence that the guys that were prepped for the NFL are the most consistent to date. Those stats show that. Just intangibles that people overlook.

[Irn-Bru]

I don't think any of these trends are particularly meaningful. Small sample sizes and no real way to suss out correlation and causation.

I hear you but it isn't a small sample size. It is 4 years of college (if applicable) and 3 years of NFL worth of data. How would you rank the QBs? No coincidence that the guys that were prepped for the NFL are the most consistent to date. Those stats show that. Just intangibles that people overlook.

Yes but the large sample of numbers isn't the data that's being explored. We aren't looking for some trend among thousands of instances. Instead, all of those pass attempts are being squashed into a single figure, and what's being explored is how that one figure correlates with how good/bad we perceive these quarterbacks to be. The number of quarterbacks is a pretty limited sample size, and their wildly different situations in the pros calls into question whether there are any legitimate trends we are spotting.

If you took all of the rookie quarterbacks from the five drafts before 2012 and analyzed where they were at the same point in their careers alongside these guys, then we'd probably start seeing something significant — or know for sure that in fact this particular metric doesn't signify much.

[mastdark81]

I don't think any of these trends are particularly meaningful. Small sample sizes and no real way to suss out correlation and causation.

I hear you but it isn't a small sample size. It is 4 years of college (if applicable) and 3 years of NFL worth of data. How would you rank the QBs? No coincidence that the guys that were prepped for the NFL are the most consistent to date. Those stats show that. Just intangibles that people overlook.

Yes but the large sample of numbers isn't the data that's being explored. We aren't looking for some trend among thousands of instances. Instead, all of those pass attempts are being squashed into a single figure, and what's being explored is how that one figure correlates with how good/bad we perceive these quarterbacks to be. The number of quarterbacks is a pretty limited sample size, and their wildly different situations in the pros calls into question whether there are any legitimate trends we are spotting.

If you took all of the rookie quarterbacks from the five drafts before 2012 and analyzed where they were at the same point in their careers alongside these guys, then we'd probably start seeing something significant — or know for sure that in fact this particular metric doesn't signify much.

Oh I see what you mean. Yeah your right. I think my biggest point was just organizational development of these quarterbacks and how these other clubs had put more experienced guys in position. But yet we are the ONLY team that gave up picks for a guy that is least pro-ready. I just happen to see some data like you say that may or may not suggest a trend in the big picture.

Still interested to see how you rank the 2012 qb class. Where you put Foles for example

[Irn-Bru]

I hear you but it isn't a small sample size. It is 4 years of college (if applicable) and 3 years of NFL worth of data. How would you rank the QBs? No coincidence that the guys that were prepped for the NFL are the most consistent to date. Those stats show that. Just intangibles that people overlook.

Yes but the large sample of numbers isn't the data that's being explored. We aren't looking for some trend among thousands of instances. Instead, all of those pass attempts are being squashed into a single figure, and what's being explored is how that one figure correlates with how good/bad we perceive these quarterbacks to be. The number of quarterbacks is a pretty limited sample size, and their wildly different situations in the pros calls into question whether there are any legitimate trends we are spotting.

If you took all of the rookie quarterbacks from the five drafts before 2012 and analyzed where they were at the same point in their careers alongside these guys, then we'd probably start seeing something significant — or know for sure that in fact this particular metric doesn't signify much.

Oh I see what you mean. Yeah your right. I think my biggest point was just organizational development of these quarterbacks and how these other clubs had put more experienced guys in position. But yet we are the ONLY team that gave up picks for a guy that is least pro-ready. I just happen to see some data like you say that may or may not suggest a trend in the big picture.

Still interested to see how you rank the 2012 qb class. Where you put Foles for example

I think your rankings based on experience line up pretty well with skill. In terms of who the best QBs are based on their performance in the NFL so far, the changes I'd make would be to slide Tannehill above Foles and Griffin ahead of Cousins.

If I could weight the rankings a little, Luck would be light years ahead of everyone. Wilson would have a lead over Tannehill, and the rest would linger a little ways behind. On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being all pro and 1 being barely good enough to make a roster, I'd have it:

Luck - 10
Wilson - 7
Tannehill - 6.5
Foles - 4
Griffin - 3
Cousins - 2.5

Something like that.

[Deadskins]

On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being all pro and 1 being barely good enough to make a roster, I'd have it:

Luck - 10
Wilson - 7
Tannehill - 6.5
Foles - 4
Griffin - 3
Cousins - 2.5

Something like that.

[mastdark81]

On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being all pro and 1 being barely good enough to make a roster, I'd have it:

Luck - 10
Wilson - 7
Tannehill - 6.5
Foles - 4
Griffin - 3
Cousins - 2.5

Something like that.

Luck is good but isn't all pro yet. He throws to many picks. I would give him an 8.5. So:

Luck - 8.5
Wilson - 8.0
Foles - 7.7
Tannehill - 7.5
Griffin - 7.5
Cousins 7.3

[Irn-Bru]

Gotcha. I was using a kind of specialty scale in my rankings that was somewhat particular to the class of rookies. On this scale, players like Brady and Peyton Manning would be off the charts. (I would defend the idea that Luck is good enough to be all pro, though.)

Griffin being at a 3 might sound like it's a disastrous situation, but all I really mean by that is that he's closer to being cut (~1) than he is to making a Pro Bowl (~7.5).

It's all kinda arbitrary, but my only point was to show that I see a pretty big gap between Luck and the rest and a substantial gap between Wilson/Tannehill and the others.

[SkinsJock]

Luck, Wilson and Tannehill have benefitted from the franchises/systems they went to and the coaching/preparation (Foles to a certain extent)

Griffin and Cousins have not

this might be interesting to look at in a couple of years

[OldSchool]

Luck, Wilson and Tannehill have benefitted from the franchises/systems they went to and the coaching/preparation (Foles to a certain extent)

Griffin and Cousins have not

this might be interesting to look at in a couple of years

I've seen Luck and Wilson play and play well. I've not seen Tannehill play so I have no opinion. Cousins flashes some aptitude when he plays but why does he throw so many picks? Is that caused by tunnel vision, deciding too quickly where to go, tipping his hand by staring at his receivers or a bunch of reasons. Whatever is his problem he's not starter material unless he can be coached into reducing his picks. If they could coach him to improve and cut down the interceptions he might become a serviceable starter. In my opinion Griffin has shown NO aptitude for running a conventional offense is still on the roster and the designated starter because the owner invested so much in him. I think he'd have been cut by now if he had been the 4th round pick in 2012. As always I hope I am proven wrong this season and Griffin is highly successful running Gruden's offense.

[SkinsJock]

we all have opinions on what and why as it pertains to Griffin - some of us think that Scott and Jay have a better idea than we do about whether he's worth investing some time & coaching as opposed to trying to coach up Cousins and McCoy

we'll soon see - even Dan Snyder can't save him if he does not show improvement in the coming 2 months

as far as the QBs from that year are concerned, it seems to me that Luck and Wilson are a cut above Foles and Tannehill and all of these QBs value to their franchises is more due to the coaching and assistance they have been given than their individual talent

I'm not sure that Griffin will ever be a good NFL QB but I do think that he was not helped much by his coaching and in making the transition from college to the NFL as he could have been if he'd gone to a different franchise than he did

hopefully he fully buys into the coaching/assistance he's going to get in the next 2 months & these guys can help him become a good NFL QB

[Irn-Bru]

In my opinion Griffin has shown NO aptitude for running a conventional offense is still on the roster and the designated starter because the owner invested so much in him. I think he'd have been cut by now if he had been the 4th round pick in 2012. As always I hope I am proven wrong this season and Griffin is highly successful running Gruden's offense.

So . . . did you simply not watch the Skins in 2012, or what? I know you'll try to hand-wave the whole year away by saying "read option," but in fact Griffin made a ton of conventional dropbacks and throws. He didn't need 8 seconds to find an open receiver, and he was accurate with a fantastic deep ball. He could extend plays with his legs. To say that he "has shown NO aptitude" for doing the things a conventional offense requires is to admit that you either didn't see 2012 or are unfairly dismissing it.

[SkinsJock]

THANKS FFA - ^^ that is a spot on assessment