This was a pretty good ESPN insider piece which may be of interest. " The SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that best predict the pass-rushing success of edge rushers (4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers). SackSEER correctly predicted a number of busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, and Courtney Upshaw, and identified both Justin Houston (a third-rounder for Kansas City) and Jamie Collins (taken in the late second round by New England) as significant sleepers."
Their top projected edge rusher:
1. Vic Beasley, Clemson
Projection: 34.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 25 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Von Miller, Andre Carter
Beasley gives you almost everything you want in an edge-rusher prospect. He was consistently productive in college, recording 32 sacks and nine passes defensed over a four-year career. Where Beasley really shined was the combine, where he recorded a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, a 41-inch vertical jump, a 12-foot, 10-inch broad jump, and a 6.91-second 3-cone, all of which are well above average.
Their most likely to be "busts":
5. Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
Projection: 21.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 12 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Jermaine Cunningham, Shea McClellin
Fowler's forecast is boosted by his high projected draft position. Otherwise, SackSEER projects Fowler as an excellent candidate to join the ever-growing stable of disappointing Florida Gators edge rushers: Derrick Harvey, Jarvis Moss and Jermaine Cunningham.
There does not seem to be anything magical about Florida that causes their edge rushers to turn into busts -- Harvey, Moss and Cunningham each had poor SackSEER projections, and Fowler fits the same mold. Fowler recorded only 11.5 sacks during his entire three-year career -- that's only half a sack more than Beasley recorded in his senior year alone. Fowler had a nice 4.60-second 40-yard dash, but he performed poorly on the vertical jump, the broad jump, and the 3-cone -- three drills that are equally important but often overlooked.
6. Shane Ray, Missouri
Projection: 20.2 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 15 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Vernon Gholston, Ray Edwards
Of all the top edge-rusher prospects available in the 2015 NFL draft, Ray is the most likely to disappoint. He draws in our model the most dreaded comp of all: Vernon Gholston. Like Ray, Gholston rocketed to the top of draft boards on the strength of his strong junior year, but he also had an exceptionally poor passes defensed rate -- with only three passes defensed during a three-year career. Ray was even worse on this score, recording only one pass defensed in his college career.
Moreover, despite having the reputation as an athletic player, Ray was just a little better than average on his 40-yard dash at his pro day (he wasn't able to run at the combine because of an injury) and was inconsistent on his jumps. Most notably, he also recorded a 3-cone of 7.70 seconds, which would rank as the 12th-slowest in SackSEER's entire database.
It is not all bleak for Ray, as similar players such as Ray Edwards, Derrick Burgess, and Calvin Pace had some pass-rushing success, but Ray's profile suggests a player who lacks the upside worthy of a pick in the top half of the first round.
Top sleeper:
Davis Tull, Tennessee-Chattanooga
Projection: 11.7 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 110 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Connor Barwin
This year Tull is SackSEER's No. 1 sleeper. He had an amazing set of workouts, recording vertical and broad jumps of 42.5 inches and 11 feet, respectively, at the NFL combine, and running a 4.57-second 40-yard dash at his pro day. Tull faced an inferior level of competition in the FCS Southern Conference, but history teaches us that nearly all late-draft successes at the edge-rusher position come from smaller schools. He projects as the No. 9 pass-rusher in this class, according to our model. That's impressive, given he's viewed as more of a mid- or late-round pick.
That said, Tull is far from a guaranteed draft-day steal. His sack production was good, but it falls short of some of the real standout late-drafted edge-rushers -- such as Jared Allen and Robert Mathis -- and he had only one pass defended in a four-year career, which is a major red flag.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/inside ... -nfl-draft----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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