Robert Griffin III and the Sunk Cost Fallacy

[Mirttinur]

I mean, they're right, we shouldn't play RG3 just because he was the number 2 pick, but people need to seriously stop overreacting to Cousins. Cousins could become a great quarterback, but he is really hit or miss. He's been really bad for us at times, lets not just remember the good times, as good as they have been. RG3 has also been hit or miss, but just hasn't been hit very recently. I'd still like to give RG3 a chance to continue to develop and become the superstar he looked every bit like his rookie year.

[Deadskins]

First Round Draft Picks since 1991

Bobby Wilson DT
Desmond Howard WR
Tom Carter DB
Heath Shuler QB
Michael Westbrook WR
Andre Johnson OT
Kenard Lang DE
Champ Bailey CB
LaVar Arrington LB
Chris Samuels T
Rod Gardner WR
Patrick Ramsey QB
Sean Taylor S
Carlos Rogers CB
Jason Campbell QB
LaRon Landry S
Brian Orakpo DE
Trent Williams T
Ryan Kerrigan DE
Robert Griffin QB

Best Pick was Sean Taylor

Other good picks were Ryan Kerrigan, Trent Williams, Chris Samuels, Champ Bailey

Jury is out on RG

It's pretty sad that the best first round pick the skins have made in 25 years was Sean Taylor ... and he was shot in his home and killed by bungling burglers looking to steal a tv set. We finally hit on a first rounder and he's stolen from us by hoodlums. Talk about snake bitten.

I'd say Carlos Rogers, Brian Orakpo, Laron Landry, and even LaVar Arrington were all good picks as well.

[Countertrey]

So your stance on the second most widely read newspaper in the country is that they have no business writing opinion pieces? That's both lame and pathetic.

Nope... just that a newspaper that is driving itself into bankruptcy because of it's failed business practices has no business writing opinion pieces about the business practices of more successful businesses... I really didn't think it was too nuanced...

[StorminMormon86]

I mean, they're right, we shouldn't play RG3 just because he was the number 2 pick, but people need to seriously stop overreacting to Cousins. Cousins could become a great quarterback, but he is really hit or miss. He's been really bad for us at times, lets not just remember the good times, as good as they have been. RG3 has also been hit or miss, but just hasn't been hit very recently. I'd still like to give RG3 a chance to continue to develop and become the superstar he looked every bit like his rookie year.

I agree to an extent, but why shouldn't Kirk get a chance to develop as well?

[riggofan]

So your stance on the second most widely read newspaper in the country is that they have no business writing opinion pieces? That's both lame and pathetic.

Nope... just that a newspaper that is driving itself into bankruptcy because of it's failed business practices has no business writing opinion pieces about the business practices of more successful businesses... I really didn't think it was too nuanced...

Hmmm. I must have misread the by-line on the article. Thought it was written by an economic journalist. Didn't realize it had been penned by Arthur Sulzberger himself.

Attention fans! You are no longer allowed to comment on anything Jay Gruden does unless you have personally coached and won more football games than he has. Because that makes complete sense.

[aswas71788]

The article is interesting, that is all. It is speculation only. If RGIII is out 4 weeks and Cousins leads the Redskins to 4 wins, then I think there is some question about who should be the starting quarterback. If the Redskins loose al four games, no question but that RGIII starts. Personally, I don't care who the quarterback is or any other position as long as the Redskins win.

[riggofan]

I'm curious if people actually read the article. Its not about whether Cousins or RGIII should start. Its about the idea that the draft picks given up for RGIII should not have any bearing on the decision:

There are plenty of indications that rather than treat Griffin like another promising but unfinished player, both fans and, at times, the team’s coaches seem to view him through the prism of what was paid to get him.

That may help explain why he started in Week 1 of the 2013 season, when it wasn’t clear that he had recovered from his playoff injury. If Wise’s reporting is right, it shows why the coaches never wavered from plans to start Griffin this year even as Cousins performed better in preseason games.

Thought this chunk was interesting too:

For Griffin, it holds his performance to an impossible standard. If he doesn’t return this season, his record over his first three years as a pro football player will be something like: one excellent year, one mediocre year and one year lost to injury. That doesn’t make him a bust by any reasonable standard; he has already shown himself to be a much better quarterback than true busts like Ryan Leaf, drafted by the San Diego Chargers, and JaMarcus Russell, drafted by the Oakland Raiders.

He looks like a bust only compared with what the team paid to get him, trading away the chance for four top players to get one quarterback. By one analysis at the time, to justify that trade, Griffin would have needed to perform at the level of Tom Brady, who has three Super Bowl rings with the New England Patriots.

Its food for thought. Weirdly, I didn't see anything in the article advising the Washington Redskins on how to run their business.

[StorminMormon86]

People don't want to read it because they think it's another knock on Griffin, when it's really not. It's kind of spot on.

[riggofan]

People don't want to read it because they think it's another knock on Griffin.

Weirdly that hasn't stopped people from commenting on it.

[aswas71788]

Yes I read the article. It really doesn't matter about the picks, they are gone. Now what matters is the Redskins winning.

[riggofan]

Yes I read the article. It really doesn't matter about the picks, they are gone. Now what matters is the Redskins winning.

Exactly!

[SkinsJock]

People don't want to read it because they think it's another knock on Griffin.

not me - I don't read stuff from NYT anymore - they've not been the same paper as they were 10 years ago ... disappointing

there's also a lot of other more reliable sources - why waste the time

[Countertrey]

Any college freshman who ever took (and actually paid attention to) Microeconomics 101 gets the concept.


... and?

[welch]

We gave up a #2 and #4 draft pick for Donovan McNabb ... and cut him

We gave up a #2 and #6 draft pick for Jason Taylor ... and cut him

We gave up a #3 draft pick for TJ Duckett ... and cut him

We had 3 receivers that we picked in second round of the 2008 draft ... and cut them all

And of course we have wasted high draft picks like the third pick in the 1st round for Heath Schuler
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Michael Westbrook
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Desmond Howard

The Redskins are used to empty draft picks ... no biggie.

And those are just recent picks. Here is an all-time list of just the first-round picks. A few of us remember some of the bad picks ("The Goog") and some with pain (Don Bosseler) and some are almost recent (Rod Gardner and Patrick Ramsey).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wa ... raft_picks

For a list of everybody...all years, all rounds...see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington ... ft_history

I don't think the Redskins are much worse than any other team, although their choices in the '50s were miserable: (1) George Preston Marshall refused to draft black players, and (2) it looks, at quick glance, like Marshall drafted running backs and receivers but did not pay much attention to OL and DL. Marshall was a football promoter but didn't know much about the game. Therefore, Redskin drafts before about 1963 don't really count.

[HogHeaven1983]

I mean, they're right, we shouldn't play RG3 just because he was the number 2 pick, but people need to seriously stop overreacting to Cousins. Cousins could become a great quarterback, but he is really hit or miss. He's been really bad for us at times, lets not just remember the good times, as good as they have been. RG3 has also been hit or miss, but just hasn't been hit very recently. I'd still like to give RG3 a chance to continue to develop and become the superstar he looked every bit like his rookie year.

One thing to remember

(Someone correct me if I got this wrong)

Cousins has STARTED 4 games total for the Redskins since the 2012 draft.

RG3 by comparison started 15 regular season games in 2012 and 1 playoff game in jan 2013, 13 games in the 2013 season, and 1 game in the 2014 season ... a total of 30 games.

Cousins had:
1 start against Cleveland in 2012
3 starts when the team had all but given up at the end of last year
0 starts yet this year
He has mopped in 3 games
1 mop up against the Ravens in 2012 which he won
1 mop up against Seattle in the playoffs in 2012 (didnt do much)
1 game where he replaced RG3 in the 1st quarter in 2014 (where he excelled with a QB rating over 110)


So in terms of playing experience in regular season games Cousins has about 5 games under his belt (6x fewer than RG3's 30 games).
Remember RG3 didnt really get going until after 8 games in 2012.
And Russell Wilson didnt really catch his stride until the second half of his first season starting (after about 8 games).

I think Cousins has a lot of upside and his best days are ahead of him.
I know I might be pushing it, but I would not be shocked if Cousins became a "poor mans" Tom Brady in a year or two.

[SkinsJock]

.. One thing to remember

(Someone correct me if I got this wrong)

Cousins has STARTED 4 games total for the Redskins since the 2012 draft.
RG3 by comparison started 16 games in 2012, 13 games in 2013, and 1 game in 2014 ... a total of 30 games.

Cousins has mopped in 3 games - So in terms of playing experience in regular season games Cousins has about 5 games under his belt
Remember RG3 didnt really get going until after 8 games in 2012.

I think Cousins has a lot of upside and his best days are ahead of him.
I know I might be pushing it, but I would not be shocked if Cousins became a "poor mans" Tom Brady in a year or two.

WRONG & you ARE 'pushing it'

You 'conveniently' forget the FIRST game against the Saints?

nobody takes anyone seriously that puts Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins in the same sentence ... that really makes you look bad

LOOK - Cousins is very familiar with Gruden's style, we all get that - what some of us hope is that Griffin get's that as well BECAUSE he's got a lot more going for him talent wise

Griffin has talent Cousins has experience - Griffin has upside Cousins has some but ....

don't worry - you'll soon see the difference

[SkinsJock]

IF Cousins is still here in 2 years it will be as Griffin's back up - I think he'll be somewhere else

[Deadskins]

RG3 by comparison started 15 regular season games in 2012 and 1 playoff game in jan 2013, 13 games in the 2013 season, and 1 game in the 2014 season ... a total of 30 games.

Actually, 2 games in 2014, for a total of 31.

[RayNAustin]

The point of the matter is valid, and inescapable. When you give up as much as the Redskins did to get RG3, you don't just give up on him, else he truly does become a bust. The FO isn't going to accept failure easily, giventhe price it paid.

On the other hand, a new head coach who played no role in that selection is only concerned with which player gives him the best chance to win, because that is what he will be judged on ... winning.

If the rumors are true about Cousins outperforming RG3 in camp, this latest injury takes Gruden off the hot seat. No matter how much better Cousins may have been performing, or how slow RG3 was developing and executing the new offense, there is no way Gruden could have possibly started Cousins over RG3. Can you imagine the headlines? It would have been pure chaos, and political suicide.

The injury mandated the switch to Cousins, and now the fate of RG3 is more in the hands of Kirk than Robert, because if Cousins plays well, and the Skins are winning, it will be hard to justify putting RG3 back in. Gruden will have much greater power to decide who starts than he did at the start.

Now, I'm not insinuating that Gruden is happy about the injury, but he will certainly benefit from it by getting a real good look at Cousins that he would not have had the opportunity to. And if Cousins falls short, then it's back to RG3 without political consequence, and Gruden will know what he has in both of his QBs.

[OldSchool]

The point of the matter is valid, and inescapable. When you give up as much as the Redskins did to get RG3, you don't just give up on him, else he truly does become a bust. The FO isn't going to accept failure easily, giventhe price it paid.

On the other hand, a new head coach who played no role in that selection is only concerned with which player gives him the best chance to win, because that is what he will be judged on ... winning.

If the rumors are true about Cousins outperforming RG3 in camp, this latest injury takes Gruden off the hot seat. No matter how much better Cousins may have been performing, or how slow RG3 was developing and executing the new offense, there is no way Gruden could have possibly started Cousins over RG3. Can you imagine the headlines? It would have been pure chaos, and political suicide.

The injury mandated the switch to Cousins, and now the fate of RG3 is more in the hands of Kirk than Robert, because if Cousins plays well, and the Skins are winning, it will be hard to justify putting RG3 back in. Gruden will have much greater power to decide who starts than he did at the start.

Now, I'm not insinuating that Gruden is happy about the injury, but he will certainly benefit from it by getting a real good look at Cousins that he would not have had the opportunity to. And if Cousins falls short, then it's back to RG3 without political consequence, and Gruden will know what he has in both of his QBs.

Spot on, Gruden knows Griffin can't pick a defense apart like Cousins did today in Philly, Griffin doesn't think quick enough to run Gruden's offense, that's why Gruden let Griffin bring the zone read nonsense back against Jacksonville. Gruden was afraid of Griffin blowing another opportunity to beat a weak team like Griffin's 6 point Houston fiasco.

After two games Cousins is averaging 37.5 points per game compared to Griffin's 6. Gruden wants Griffin back about as much as he wants a case of jock itch.

[masterkwon]

The Redskins are used to throwing away draft picks ... and have done their best to do that for the past 20 years.

The Snyder Era.

Bravo Tiny...Bravo

[FLWSkin]

As has every other team in the league for the most part.