Robert Griffin III and the Sunk Cost Fallacy

[SKINS#1]

I Just read the following about the Redskins, interesting read. Posted for your comments.

Washington paid dearly to draft the quarterback in 2012, but that should have nothing to do with the team’s decisions about his future.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/16/upsho ... ipad-share

[Countertrey]

NY Times... dying readership and nearly bankrupt due to their intellectual dishonesty and political cherrypicking...

Not much worth reading on that page. This is an organization that has no business lecturing others about the fallacy of sunk costs.

[Irn-Bru]

I Just read the following about the Redskins, interesting read. Posted for your comments.

Washington paid dearly to draft the quarterback in 2012, but that should have nothing to do with the team’s decisions about his future.

I haven't encountered any serious argument that actually posits RGIII should start because we spent all those draft picks on him. Mostly it's what people say when they are preparing to knock down said argument.

[HogHeaven1983]

We gave up a #2 and #4 draft pick for Donovan McNabb ... and cut him

We gave up a #2 and #6 draft pick for Jason Taylor ... and cut him

We gave up a #3 draft pick for TJ Duckett ... and cut him

We had 3 receivers that we picked in second round of the 2008 draft ... and cut them all

And of course we have wasted high draft picks like the third pick in the 1st round for Heath Schuler
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Michael Westbrook
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Desmond Howard

The Redskins are used to empty draft picks ... no biggie.

[hanburgerheel]

We gave up a #2 and #4 draft pick for Donovan McNabb ... and cut him

We gave up a #2 and #6 draft pick for Jason Taylor ... and cut him

We gave up a #3 draft pick for TJ Duckett ... and cut him

We had 3 receivers that we picked in second round of the 2008 draft ... and cut them all

And of course we have wasted high draft picks like the third pick in the 1st round for Heath Schuler
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Michael Westbrook
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Desmond Howard

The Redskins are used to throwing away draft picks ... and have done their best to do that for the past 20 years.

no biggie

Wow, that is pretty startling to see them all together like that! I don't follow these stats closely for all teams. I wonder if the other NFL teams have similar draft pick records.

[FanofallthatisGibbs]

Yes, other teams have plenty of busts as well. Think about it - there are some 100 or so "star" players. These have been accumulated by the league over a 10-yr rolling period or so. That means on average only about 10 players drafted any given year really rise to stardom. No team has nailed it year in year out.

You could compare Philly's strategy, which tends to draft a lot of lesser talent for a greater "whole" - but they also tend to cut a ton of their draftees over time, and they must with that many draft picks. We aim big, miss big. They cast a wide net and don't keep all their catch. New coaches/coordinators also screw up team chemistry. The Skins are playing this year with a lot of talent for a ZBS team, so protecting the QB is a challenge with our current O-line. Will Coach Gruden adjust? So far, I think he's doing an admirable job but it's still early.

[Deadskins]

We gave up a #2 and #4 draft pick for Donovan McNabb ... and cut him

We gave up a #2 and #6 draft pick for Jason Taylor ... and cut him

We gave up a #3 draft pick for TJ Duckett ... and cut him

We had 3 receivers that we picked in second round of the 2008 draft ... and cut them all

And of course we have wasted high draft picks like the third pick in the 1st round for Heath Schuler
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Michael Westbrook
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Desmond Howard

The Redskins are used to empty draft picks ... no biggie.

Technically, we traded McNabb, but your point stands.

[SkinsJock]

at this time there are many that are thinking we gave up too much - I'm not one of them

[riggofan]

NY Times... dying readership and nearly bankrupt due to their intellectual dishonesty and political cherrypicking...

Not much worth reading on that page. This is an organization that has no business lecturing others about the fallacy of sunk costs.

No offense, man, but what a lame *** comment.

That actually was a pretty interesting article. Had nothing to do with politics and certainly nothing intellectually dishonest about it. It wasn't even unfavorable to the Redskins. Could care less about your opinion of the NYT.

[StorminMormon86]

Hindsight being 20/20, people are now coming out of the woodwork saying they thought we gave up too much for Griffin back in 2012. Didn't hear that much from that many people back then though, wonder why?

[riggofan]

Hindsight being 20/20, people are now coming out of the woodwork saying they thought we gave up too much for Griffin back in 2012. Didn't hear that much from that many people back then though, wonder why?

Because it was a risk worth taking. We haven't had a franchise QB since... Theisman maybe? I can't fault the team for rolling the dice and taking a shot on a dynamic player like RGIII. What was the alternative? Draft a RT that year and spend another season with Grossman under center?

In hindsight, we probably did give up too much for RGIII. I've always believed though that we drafted TWO QBs that year. If either one of those guys becomes a long term solution for us at QB, I don't care how many picks we gave up that year to find him. It was worth it.

[SkinsJock]

History will show that the trade was a good one - hopefully, also a good deal for the Rams

[riggofan]

History will show that the trade was a good one - hopefully, also a good deal for the Rams

Why do we care if it was a good deal for the Rams???

[Countertrey]

NY Times... dying readership and nearly bankrupt due to their intellectual dishonesty and political cherrypicking...

Not much worth reading on that page. This is an organization that has no business lecturing others about the fallacy of sunk costs.

No offense, man, but what a lame *** comment.

That actually was a pretty interesting article. Had nothing to do with politics and certainly nothing intellectually dishonest about it. It wasn't even unfavorable to the Redskins. Could care less about your opinion of the NYT.

Well... I AM offended. And, had you ACTUALLY read what was said, you'd have comprehended that the first sentence pertained to the veracity of the organization running the article, NOT directly to the article. It was an expression of my OPINION regarding WHY the NY Times has no business commenting on ANYONE else's business practices. Lame, my butt. You don't have any obligation to "care" about my opinion... But, when you link an "opinion piece", you may just get it. Deal with it.

[FLWSkin]

We gave up a #2 and #4 draft pick for Donovan McNabb ... and cut him

We gave up a #2 and #6 draft pick for Jason Taylor ... and cut him

We gave up a #3 draft pick for TJ Duckett ... and cut him

We had 3 receivers that we picked in second round of the 2008 draft ... and cut them all

And of course we have wasted high draft picks like the third pick in the 1st round for Heath Schuler
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Michael Westbrook
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Desmond Howard

The Redskins are used to empty draft picks ... no biggie.

And that is true for EVERY OTHER TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.

[markshark84]

We gave up a #2 and #4 draft pick for Donovan McNabb ... and cut him

We gave up a #2 and #6 draft pick for Jason Taylor ... and cut him

We gave up a #3 draft pick for TJ Duckett ... and cut him

We had 3 receivers that we picked in second round of the 2008 draft ... and cut them all

And of course we have wasted high draft picks like the third pick in the 1st round for Heath Schuler
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Michael Westbrook
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Desmond Howard

The Redskins are used to throwing away draft picks ... and have done their best to do that for the past 20 years.

no biggie

Wow, that is pretty startling to see them all together like that! I don't follow these stats closely for all teams. I wonder if the other NFL teams have similar draft pick records.

If you want to get really startled, create a list of free agent busts

[PAPDOG67]

I believe the percentage of 1st rounders that are totally out of football after four years is 50%. The NFL draft is the ultimate crapshoot.

[riggofan]

Well... I AM offended. And, had you ACTUALLY read what was said, you'd have comprehended that the first sentence pertained to the veracity of the organization running the article, NOT directly to the article. It was an expression of my OPINION regarding WHY the NY Times has no business commenting on ANYONE else's business practices. Lame, my butt. You don't have any obligation to "care" about my opinion... But, when you link an "opinion piece", you may just get it. Deal with it.

Boo hoo. You didn't offer an opinion on the article. You just whined about the NYT. I really admire your critical thinking.

So your stance on the second most widely read newspaper in the country is that they have no business writing opinion pieces? That's both lame and pathetic.

[DarthMonk]

I believe the percentage of 1st rounders that are totally out of football after four years is 50%. The NFL draft is the ultimate crapshoot.

The Steelers have kicked our butt in the draft for years.

For example, in the last 10 years, working backward from last year, their 1st rounder has played this many games:

16, 21, 50, 48, 82, 72, 112, 105, 139, and 145.

The same numbers for the 2nd rounders are:

15, 27, 37, 59, 55, 20, 96, 76, 96, and 43.

I have a post I can't find from a year or two ago showing how good they really are. It's not much of a crapshoot for them. We've pretty much sucked at it for a while.

[HogHeaven1983]

First Round Draft Picks since 1991

Bobby Wilson DT
Desmond Howard WR
Tom Carter DB
Heath Shuler QB
Michael Westbrook WR
Andre Johnson OT
Kenard Lang DE
Champ Bailey CB
LaVar Arrington LB
Chris Samuels T
Rod Gardner WR
Patrick Ramsey QB
Sean Taylor S
Carlos Rogers CB
Jason Campbell QB
LaRon Landry S
Brian Orakpo DE
Trent Williams T
Ryan Kerrigan DE
Robert Griffin QB

Best Pick was Sean Taylor

Other good picks were Ryan Kerrigan, Trent Williams, Chris Samuels, Champ Bailey

Jury is out on RG

It's pretty sad that the best first round pick the skins have made in 25 years was Sean Taylor ... and he was shot in his home and killed by bungling burglers looking to steal a tv set. We finally hit on a first rounder and he's stolen from us by hoodlums. Talk about snake bitten.

[Hooligan]

On the bright side, our drafting has looked much better lately. Since Sean Taylor, our 1st round picks have been Carlos Rogers, J Campbell (ok, not him), LaRon Landry, Orakpo, Trent Williams, Ryan Kerrigan, and Griffin. Outside of J Cam, all were solid picks and great players.

[PulpExposure]

We gave up a #2 and #4 draft pick for Donovan McNabb ... and cut him

We gave up a #2 and #6 draft pick for Jason Taylor ... and cut him

We gave up a #3 draft pick for TJ Duckett ... and cut him

We had 3 receivers that we picked in second round of the 2008 draft ... and cut them all

And of course we have wasted high draft picks like the third pick in the 1st round for Heath Schuler
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Michael Westbrook
and the forth pick in the 1st round for Desmond Howard

The Redskins are used to empty draft picks ... no biggie.

If you're going to go back to Duckett, surprised you didn't also include the 3rd for Adam Archuleta, and the. 3rd for Brandon Lloyd.

Ouch.

[HogHeaven1983]

HA HA Brandon LLoyd ... thats funny

He looked really good in a sweater ... didnt he?

Didnt he actually play well for denver for 1 year after leaving??

[OldSchool]

Does any serious person question having spent 3 first round & 1 second round picks makes it harder to give up on project like Griffin? Of course it factors into decisions in Ashburn. Daniel Snyder has certainly been a believer in Griffin but he is also a guy who doesn't like to be thought stupid and the prospect of a bigger bust than Fat Albert has to be unthinkable and to be avoided at all costs. So I don't think would question the resolve of the Redskins to make a success out of that 2012 decision. To me it is throwing good money after bad but for the moment the next alternative is auditioning to take over the job. Hopefully Cousins will play well and render the point moot.

[SkinsJock]

... Washington paid dearly to draft the quarterback in 2012, but that should have nothing to do with the team’s decisions about his future.

I used to read the NYT but for a number of years now I have not - the reporting and editing has not been very good for many years - so I am stating that I did not read the article

I do agree with the premise that players should be selected based on how they fit with what the franchise needs at that position and I do hope that the FO and coaches we have now should put players on the field based on how well they play with the other players and not based on their particular skill set or what they cost to be here or to draft

I understand that some will worry about what we did or did not do as far as drafting or adding players - I could care less about anything that happened a while ago - all that matters is how we are managing and operating this franchise right now

things are different here this year and the success of this franchise going forward is all that concerns me - I think Snyder is out of the equation (except for being a very supportive owner) as far as the player acquisitions are concerned and from what we've seen so far I like how things are going

Griffin will get well and he will have to show that he's a better QB than Cousins when he gets back - I'm not concerned about that ...

IF Cousins can be a better fit for this team and for what Gruden wants, I'll be thrilled but I doubt that will happen