Redskins. . . Win NFC East?

emoses14 · Post by **emoses14** » Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:38 pm

Redskins are NFC East contenders
With RG3 and a strong rushing attack, Washington is a dangerous team

Originally Published: September 13, 2012
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
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Since 2002, when the NFL split into eight four-team divisions, the battle for the NFC East has been pretty much a three-horse race between the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles.

Each of those three clubs has won the division at least twice and they have finished outside of the top three in the NFC East a combined total of four times in that time frame.

One of the reasons for this trend is that the fourth team in the division, the Washington Redskins, hasn't held up its end of the competitive bargain. In the past 10 seasons, Washington has not only failed to win the division once, it has finished last on six occasions (including the past four seasons) and has only one second-place finish to its credit.

A losing trend of that caliber is hard to change quickly, yet after reviewing game tapes and metrics from multiple Week 1 contests, it's clear that the Redskins are on a path to make the NFC East a four-horse race as soon as this season.

It starts, of course, with Robert Griffin III. This week he became the first quarterback to ever win an offensive rookie of the week honor after his debut game and ranked fifth in ESPN's Total QBR metric.

He did all of this in part because of his elite skills, but also because Mike and Kyle Shanahan did a superb job of tailoring a game plan to RG3's strengths.

The Redskins started the contest with a steady diet of screen passes and read option runs that were successful enough to force the New Orleans Saints into having to go all-out to protect the line of scrimmage.

Once New Orleans took that step, Griffin started airing the ball out with the type of vertical success that was even greater than what he achieved at Baylor last year. He threw 11 vertical routes in his final 23 drop backs and racked up seven completions and a defensive pass-interference penalty that netted a total of 243 yards and a touchdown. That equates to an insanely high 22.1 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) against a Saints defense that posted a 9.3 VYPA allowed mark in 2011, which was tied for the second best total in the league in that metric.

That alone should strike fear into the hearts of the rest of the NFC East, but here's the even scarier part -- Griffin has plenty of room for improvement. His only near interception of the contest occurred in part because he didn't see a defender in the passing lane and Washington's only sack happened when Griffin tripped over Alfred Morris when Morris was trying to pick up a blitz. Both of those errors are correctable and ones Griffin won't make as often in the future.

Griffin didn't have to go about carrying this offense alone, either, as Washington's 153 rushing yards were the fourth most in the NFL in Week 1, and 111 of those yards were posted by someone other than Griffin.

As productive as this part of their attack was, the Redskins have even more room for improvement here than they do in the passing game. Washington's run blockers gave the Redskins ball carriers good blocking 43.9 percent of the time, which is a solid, but not great, figure in that metric. (Note: good blocking is very loosely defined as when the blockers do not allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt.)

In addition, Morris tallied a meager 5.4 yards on plays with good blocking (a metric known as GBYPA). If that number doesn't increase in the near future, Mike Shanahan has the option of leaning on Roy Helu (7.0 GBYPA in 2011) and Evan Royster (7.9 GBYPA in 2011).

Washington's defense also had more than a few highlights against an explosive Saints offense.

Jeff Fishbein/Icon SMIBrian Orakpo is a fearsome pass-rusher for the Redskins.

Brian Orakpo is probably the biggest name on this platoon and he had a good game (a near interception on a pass defensed, two passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage and two tackles), but the Redskins' most impactful player by far was linebacker Ryan Kerrigan.

Kerrigan forced a throwaway, had a pass defensed on a throw that he nearly intercepted, drew two holding penalties and notched a sack in addition to tallying two tackles while being on the field for all 75 of Washington's defensive snaps. If Orakpo and Kerrigan continue to play at this level, the Redskins will soon give the rest of the division a run for the money in the battle of best pass-rushers.

Washington's starting cornerbacks, DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson, also held up quite well against Drew Brees & Co. by allowing only two completions and 28 yards in eight targets.

Another group of factors boding well for the Redskins is the state of the rest of the teams in the NFC East.

Philadelphia struggled to beat Cleveland in Week 1 in part because Michael Vick reverted back to his old habits of making lots of risky throws. To get a visual on just how many errors Vick made last week, consider this -- his five bad decisions (defined as mental mistakes by a quarterback that led to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team) against the Browns were as many bad decisions as Aaron Rodgers made in the entire 2011 season.

Compounding that debacle is the fact Vick also didn't do a very good of protecting himself in the pocket (the Browns racked up 11 quarterback hits) or on scrambles, and thus is still evidently not buying into the idea that the Eagles need him to stay healthy. Without Vick under center, Philadelphia loses its grip on potential NFC East supremacy.

In recent years the Giants have shown an uncanny ability to absorb injuries but that power seemed to come up short against the Cowboys last week when backup cornerback Michael Coe was forced into the lineup.

Coe was so bad in coverage that he almost single-handedly made Dallas wide receiver Kevin Ogletree the most added player to fantasy football rosters this week. Prince Amukamara will take Coe's place in the starting lineup once he is healthy but Amukamara's college metrics indicate he may not be the type of strong coverage cornerback the Giants need to solve their coverage woes.

The Dallas victory over New York in Week 1 was a primary catalyst for its moving up four spots in ESPN.com's Power Rankings, but the Cowboys likely didn't move much higher because of the longstanding concerns that they tend to play well early in the year and falter under the heat of the playoff push. The Cowboys also have a lack of quality depth in certain areas to go along with a history of durability issues among their skill players, both of which raise questions as to if they can continue to perform at their Week 1 pace for the bulk of the 2012 season.

All of the above items aren't meant to say that the Redskins are the favorites to win the NFC East, as the Eagles were my pick for the division back in July and one game isn't enough to change that opinion.

Instead, what this first game out of the gates showed is that at long last the Burgundy and Gold are building a club that can go toe-to-toe with the rest of the NFC East.

In other words, the toughest division in the NFL just got a whole lot tougher.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... contenders

Irn-Bru · Post by **Irn-Bru** » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:18 pm

Yeah . . . that's what people were saying (perhaps myself included :oops:

) after a 2-0 start last year . . .

aswas71788 · Post by **aswas71788** » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:59 pm

I am as thrilled as everyone else is about the Redskins win over New Orleans and would love to see the same the rest of the year but come on, it is one game. A great game yes, but 1 or 16. Let's see where the Redskins are at the end of the season. Let's hope it is a division title but don't get your feelings hurt if it is not. Let's talk about a division title if the Redskins are 6 - 2 or 7 - 1, or even 5 - 3 at the halfway point. Enjoy last Sunday....but it is not this Sunday!

riggofan · Post by **riggofan** » Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:39 pm

Freaking jinx.

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Thu Sep 13, 2012 11:35 pm

I'm getting tired of everyone trying to temper expectations. If we had had anywhere near this kind of QB play last year, we would have won the division easily. The only thing that stands in our way this year is injuries. If we can stay healthy (and that's a huge if, I know), the sky's the limit for this team.

cowboykillerzRGiii · Post by **cowboykillerzRGiii** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 12:52 am

Deadskins wrote:I'm getting tired of everyone trying to temper expectations. If we had had anywhere near this kind of QB play last year, we would have won the division easily. The only thing that stands in our way this year is injuries. If we can stay healthy (and that's a huge if, I know), the sky's the limit for this team.

Preach it brother!

tribeofjudah · Post by **tribeofjudah** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:00 am

cowboykillerzRED wrote:
Deadskins wrote:I'm getting tired of everyone trying to temper expectations. If we had had anywhere near this kind of QB play last year, we would have won the division easily. The only thing that stands in our way this year is injuries. If we can stay healthy (and that's a huge if, I know), the sky's the limit for this team.

Preach it brother!

Yup...the sky's the limit, NOT the sky is falling...!!!

I'm ever the Optimist....!!!

rskin72 · Post by **rskin72** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:33 am

While I want to throw down tne doubt and jump onboard the playoff express at week 2.....reality of our past couple of decades (by and large) of futility arise to temper my expectations.

I absolutely believe that we are a team who is flying low on the radar, and may surprise a few more teams this season. But, I am going to wait a bit prior to crowning us as nfce champs, and attending rgiii's induction in canton. I want to see how we do vs our next several opponents.

I mean, the same pundits that gave us no shot vs no., are now professing all the love for our coaching staff and players, especially. RGIII. We lose to the lambs and we are a division 2 team again.

I certainly hope my pessimism is proven wrong.....

HEROHAMO · Post by **HEROHAMO** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:37 am

Forget the NFC east how bout the NFC Crown?

UK Skins Fan · Post by **UK Skins Fan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:56 am

As soon as I see the word "metric" in an article about American Football, my eyes start to hurt.

I predicted 7-9 as our record this year, and whilst I'm as excited as anybody about the week one performance, I'm not ready to revise that prediction until a quarter of the season has gone. We can all see the POTENTIAL that is there, but potential doesn't win consistently enough to win division titles.

To be fair though, the article only suggests that the Redskins COULD be a contender, which is not exactly a wild extrapolation from the week one performance.

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:05 am

rskin72 wrote:reality of our past couple of decades (by and large) of futility arise to temper my expectations.

But we never had a QB during that time. That's the difference.

UK Skins Fan · Post by **UK Skins Fan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:12 am

Deadskins wrote:
rskin72 wrote:reality of our past couple of decades (by and large) of futility arise to temper my expectations.

But we never had a QB during that time. That's the difference.

This is absolutely correct. And while I hope and believe that RGIII is the QB that we've all been waiting more than 25 years for, the last two decades do leave behind a reticence to get too excited about our prospects.

In other words, I'm firmly and unequivocably on both sides of the fence. :oops:

cleg · Post by **cleg** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:20 am

Here's a metric that I believe in...RGIII makes the difference. Last year the Skins win the division with a competent QB. Everything feels different. The hip, hip hooray 6-2 start under Zorn felt flukey at the time and last years 3-1 start was all couched by statements about how long Good Rex can stay around. RGIII is a difference maker and that makes the difference on a team that was probably not as bad as we/others thought last year.

KazooSkinsFan · Post by **KazooSkinsFan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:30 am

Irn-Bru wrote:Yeah . . . that's what people were saying (perhaps myself included ) after a 2-0 start last year . . .

No one overreacts like some Skins fans both directions, do they? Win a game and we're going to the Superbowl and every member of our team is a HOF candidate. Lose the next game and everyone and everything about our team sucks. We've seen this story before.

cleg · Post by **cleg** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:51 am

KazooSkinsFan wrote:
Irn-Bru wrote:Yeah . . . that's what people were saying (perhaps myself included ) after a 2-0 start last year . . .

No one overreacts like some Skins fans both directions, do they? Win a game and we're going to the Superbowl and every member of our team is a HOF candidate. Lose the next game and everyone and everything about our team sucks. We've seen this story before.

That's true. But its true because we are fans. We don't have to be objective like a sports writer - live in the moment. Its what I have been doing all these dark years since 1991.

PAPDOG67 · Post by **PAPDOG67** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:13 am

While I love the optimism and excitement on this board I think everyone just needs to take a deep breath and let the season evolve. Heck, the leaves haven't even changed colors and we're throwing out all sorts of predictions. Let us at least get to Halloween before we get a read on this team and the rest of the NFC East. Let us see how this team performs this week in Stl. If they control the entire game and win easily I will know this is a different team. I know we're on the road, but the Rams are pathetic. As horrendous as the Rams have been in the last 5 seasons (15-65) somehow they are 2-2 against us, with our only 2 wins bein a 9-7 snooze fest and a 17-10 victory. Let that sink in a little bit. So we've basically been .500 against a team whos average season in the last 5 is 3-13. Who do I want to see step up this week? The defense baby. There is no reason we give up any more than 10-13 pionts to this pathetic team, who will have Wayne Hunter starting at LT. I'm expecting big days out of Rak and Kerrigan, if not putting Bradford in the ER. Keep the game plan simple on offense again to start and things will open up. 27-10 with us never trailing or in doubt of pulling out the contest would be nice.

SouthLondonRedskin · Post by **SouthLondonRedskin** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:14 am

IF the othere three teams have regular seasons like they did last season then we have a chance of winning it, yes.

But I believe all three could improve upon last seasons records (we aint the only ones making improvements in the off season!) and that would make it too tough for us this time around.

Last season we won five, should have beaten the cowgirls twice, were close in another couple, and rubbish in another couple.

This year I can see us winning nine, being unlucky in a couple, missing out on a couple because of rookie-type mistakes, and competing in almost all the rest.

RGIII is the real deal, we know this, but he'll need at least a year in the NFL before he is in a position to take us to the promised land.

I can wait, it's nice to know its coming....

:wink:

gibbsfan · Post by **gibbsfan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:19 am

i,m thrilled as heck BUT....

IT,S ONE GAME..

UK Skins Fan · Post by **UK Skins Fan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:20 am

PAPDOG67 wrote:putting Bradford in the ER

A slightly unfortunate phrase, given reason events in New Orleans.

PAPDOG67 · Post by **PAPDOG67** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:20 am

Apologies about the double post, my computer is not cooperating this morning.

UK Skins Fan · Post by **UK Skins Fan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:22 am

PAPDOG67 wrote:Apologies about the double post, my computer is not cooperating this morning.

Use a hammer - works every time

PAPDOG67 · Post by **PAPDOG67** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:36 am

I will say this after watching last night's game and most of week 1's games....our O-line is not as bad as I thought it would be. Apparently a lot of teams have problems with their O-line. I actually think Trent is on his way to becoming the player we all thought he could be, which is a pro-bowler. Lets hope he doesn't celebrate by sparking one up.

KazooSkinsFan · Post by **KazooSkinsFan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:16 am

cleg wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:
Irn-Bru wrote:Yeah . . . that's what people were saying (perhaps myself included ) after a 2-0 start last year . . .

No one overreacts like some Skins fans both directions, do they? Win a game and we're going to the Superbowl and every member of our team is a HOF candidate. Lose the next game and everyone and everything about our team sucks. We've seen this story before.
That's true. But its true because we are fans. We don't have to be objective like a sports writer - live in the moment. Its what I have been doing all these dark years since 1991.

Fans stick with the team even when the evidence is against us. The hysterical morons are so because they are hysterical morons, not because they are fans. There is little intersection. Blasting the team and whining they just want to win and are going to attack the snot out of us until we do aren't traits displayed by "fans." That they can also be hysterically positive when everything is perfect, like beating a good team on the road with a rookie quarterback doesn't change that when he loses at home to a bad team and they'll just start ripping us from top to bottom.

UK Skins Fan · Post by **UK Skins Fan** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:28 am

UK Skins Fan wrote:
PAPDOG67 wrote:putting Bradford in the ER

A slightly unfortunate phrase, given reason events in New Orleans.

"Reason" events? I need a holiday........

SkinsJock · Post by **SkinsJock** » Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:32 am

SouthLondonRedskin wrote:IF the other 3 teams have regular seasons like they did last season then we have a chance of winning it, yes.
... all 3 could improve upon last seasons records (we aint the only ones making improvements in the off season!) ...

Last season we won 5 .....

This year I can see us winning nine, being unlucky in a couple, missing out on a couple because of rookie-type mistakes, and competing in almost all the rest.

RGIII is the real deal, ... but he'll need at least a year in the NFL before he is in a position to take us to the promised land.

I can wait, it's nice to know its coming....

count me in this camp as well ...

If we can get to 8 or 9 wins we've done well

I'm cautiously optimistic ... it's possible that RGIII might become great sooner than anyone can expect - ANYTHING is possible ...

I'm just going to enjoy watching this season and look forward to watching these guys become a really competitive NFL team again

it's been a long time ....