The Hogster wrote:Irn-Bru wrote:Ray makes a good point. What you are saying might have been true in another era, but in today's game the more balanced team does not always win when it matters. Success is closely correlated with offensive performance, in the playoffs as well as in the regular season.
The NFL is an offense-oriented league, and that is increasingly true as time goes on. I'm not a fan of that fact, but there's no use pretending it's not reality.
It's a novice point that goes without saying, but has been exaggerated by fans recently. Rule changes have made it easier to pass in the NFL. Teams are more pass oriented than ever, resulting in higher yardage and point totals.
What's a novice point? You aren't being specific about what you are disputing. When Ray pointed out that the top competitors in the NFL have some of the worst defenses, you said "you have no point."
What is that supposed to mean? That it's obvious that you don't need a good defense to compete in the NFL? Then why are you disputing what Ray said?
But if you meant to contradict Ray, or to refute something more specific, you sure didn't make it easy for onlookers to figure out what that was.
I assume that you meant to contradict Ray, because of this argument below:
But, of the 4 teams remaining in the playoffs right now, only the New England Patriots finished in the Top 9 in terms of Scoring--Points Per Game.
2 of those 4 remaining teams finished the season in the Top 5 in Total Defense--in terms of Points Allowed Per Game.
Like I said, at the end of the day, yes, scoring points is at a premium in terms of making the playoffs. But, when it counts, the team that is more balanced generally still comes out on top.
I think this is a misunderstanding of Ray's argument, or at least the argument I'd make (which I believe is close to Ray's). My argument is this: the importance of a good defense to a successful team has declined in recent years, such that teams can have a great offense without needing a great defense to have winning seasons and win playoff games.
If you look at weighted statistics for 1993 NFL teams — the earliest year such statistics are available — versus 2011 NFL teams, this becomes apparent. Here are the playoff contenders in each season along with their offensive/defensive rankings, and the average ranking of the teams.
Starting with 1993:
Code: Select all
1993 OFF DEF
SF 1 19
DAL 2 17
DEN 3 12
KC 4 4
NYG 6 15
LA 10 18
BUF 13 8
MIN 14 3
HOU 15 2
PIT 16 1
GB 17 5
DET 22 16
Avg 10.25 10
And now 2011:
Code: Select all
2011OFF DEF
GB 1 24
NO 2 28
NE 3 30
PIT 6 7
NYG 7 20
HOU 9 8
DET 10 9
ATL 12 6
BAL 13 1
CIN 17 17
SF 18 3
DEN 23 19
Avg 10.08 14.33
In 1993, teams needed on average a better defense than offense to make the playoffs, while both averaged top-10. In 2011, by contrast, the importance of having a good defense sunk dramatically, such that the average defense of a playoff team was middle-of-the-pack compared to the league. Offense, in the meanwhile, remained essentially just as important.
Perhaps you will say that these stats don't matter, since you are more interested in whether a team wins "when it counts," like in the playoffs. I'd like to note here that even if you take this route, your original, crude dismissal of Ray's post has now been blown up. He
did have a point, because as he said:
I don't think anyone of sound mind would say that defense doesn't matter, and I certainly haven't suggested that myself.
On the other hand, the three best records this year ... Pats 13-3 were ranked 31st in defense, New Orleans 13-3 24th in defense, and the Packers 15-1 LAST in defense.
How does a team go 15-1 with the last placed defense? A whole lot of offense, that's how.
I think those facts speak for themselves in the great debate here, and I'm perfectly comfortable in saying that so long as the outcome of games is determined by points, I'll take the dominant offense approach.
Ray was simply saying that in today's NFL, a defense can be mediocre or even bad while the offense carries it. This is clearly reflected in statistical trends, both in the case of individual teams like the Packers or Patriots and in larger trends such as averages from entire years of play.
Now to the "when it counts" idea. Here is a list of conference champion game competitors since 2005, along with their season defensive rank (according to the same adjusted stats I used earlier). The teams in bold are the teams that won.
2011 NYG (20) SF (3) | NE (30) BAL (4)
2010 PIT (1) NYJ (5) | GB (2) CHI (6)
2009 NO (14) MIN (17) | IND (15) NYJ (1)
2008 PIT (1) BAL (2) | ARI (23) PHI (3)
2007 NE (12) SD (6) | NYG (14) GB (16)
2006 CHI (2) NO (22) | IND (25) NE (7)
2005 SEA (15) CAR (2) | PIT (3) DEN (9)
I picked conference championship games for a reason. Every team that played in these games had to have played well enough in the regular season to get to the playoffs
and have already won at least one playoff game. I want to draw your attention to two points that this list illuminates:
(1) As you can plainly see, there are plenty of teams with mediocre (or worse) defenses who made it this far into the postseason. They won "when it mattered," often against teams with better defenses in the first couple rounds of the playoffs (I've done quick searches on this subpoint but haven't lined up the stats here; you can research that part for yourself if you are skeptical).
(2) In every season listed above save one, a team with the inferior defense won its conference championship game and made it to the Super Bowl.
A mediocre defense is sufficient to win, provided the offensive power is there, both in the regular season and "when it counts."
Finally, you write:
Simply because offense is at an apex right now, doesn't mean the value of defense has declined. If anything, that has placed a higher premium on playing defense.
This argument isn't a good one because it proves too much. Suppose we had an NFL where the top 12 teams made the playoffs every year but there was no correlation between good defense and winning or making the playoffs. Since, by random chance, some teams with better offenses would still lose in the playoffs to a team that happened to have a better defense, this same response of yours would "work" just as well. So the argument itself is not specific enough to be of any value.