Why we won't draft a QB in rounds 1 or 2

[markshark84]

After looking at the available QBs in the upcoming draft, it is becoming increasingly clear that:
(1) Luck will not be available at #6
(2) RGIII will not be available at #6, and
(3) There are no other 1st round QBs (Barkley & Jones are returning to school)

In addiition, I do not see MS/BA trading picks away to snag Luck or RGIII -- for the main reason being that it will most likely take at least 2 #1s and 2 #2s to get Luck and 2 #1s to get RGIII. These are prices a bit too expensive -- especially for a team that has so many glaring needs and desperately needs to fill those gaps via the draft. I think/hope MS/BA are well aware of this.

In terms of need, the skins must fill/strengthen these positions:
1. OG (both G positions)
2. OT (at least one, plus another for injuries -- OT one of the most frequently injured positions in the NFL)
3. CB
4. DB (for insurance)
5. LB (for insurance)
6. WR

In the second round, there will be Tannehill, Foles, and potentially Weeden. Outside of Tannehill, I don't see MS/BA picking up Foles or Weeden (mainly due to Weeden's age). I personally, don't think Tannehill is worth a second round pick if one of the top 3 OTs or OGs are still on the board with our second round pick -- I personally think MS/BA will agree with me on this issue and I think one of these top 3 will be available. Tannehill had monster games against bad teams/defenses (and yes, Baylor has a bad defense) which inflated his stats. He did not play well against quality opponents -- which is why I don't see him as a viable first or second round pick.

That said, this is a fairly deep OL draft. There may be some serious value in the second round (and potentially 3rd) to pick up a OT or OG. Because of this, I don't think it is crazy to see us taking OL in the first 2 rounds.

What makes our non-QB draft scenario even more realistic is the fact Flynn is a FA. Although Dan Snyder has historically enjoyed signing players well into their 30s and coming off a contract year, MS/BA have put an end to this practice. It is nice that Flynn is 26 years old. I tend to believe almost any QB can produce with top OLs and the best WRs in the game -- so in that respect Flynn is completely unproven. HOWEVER, he may be our best option moving forward in terms of value. And with Barkley and Jones returning, he is most likely the best option. Danny boy also doesn't mind overpaying players -- something necessary to get Flynn.

After Luck and RGIII, the QB quality meter falls drastically (except Weeden, but since he will be 29 entering next season, there is less value). In terms of skill positions, MS likes to find diamonds in the rough -- although he has drafted QBs in the first round -- I just don't see MS/BA drafting either of the second round selections mentioned above with the #6 or #38 pick.

While I may be totally off-base, I don't see this scenario as unrealistic. We'll see.

[Skeletor]

I think there are only two teams ahead of the Skins that will look to upgrade at QB next year, Indy and Cle. Assuming Indy goes with Luck, Cle will have to decide whether to take RG3, sign Flynn or stick with Colt McCoy.

Flynn might be the best option for them, given that Holmgren and Shurmer both come out of that West Coast offense background that Flynn is playing in now. And since Free Agency happens before the draft, Cleveland may be out of the running for RG3 early. (of course, they'll have to compete with other teams like miami to sign Flynn if they want him)

The bigger worry for the Skins, I think is that somebody trades up with STL or Minny to get RG3 and that may force their hand. I'm convinced that Shanny will identify the guy he wants, and go get him. I don't think anybody saw the Cutler pick coming when he was in Denver, and so trying to guess who he'll take is a lot of fun, but ultimately pretty tough to do...

[StorminMormon86]

I'm worried that Cleveland will land Flynn and RGIII. Then what!?

[aswas71788]

In reality, there are 5 teams ahead of the Reddkins that are either looking for a quarterback or are potential trade partners to other teams. Luck will go first and then every team on the clock after that will be entertaining offers until RGIII is gone. But who knows, between now and then, some young quarterback can have a bombshell of a game and his tock will rise faster than the sun in the morning.

If the Redskns go after Flynn, he will be expensive because there will be other teams bidding for his services also. In that case, Snyders willingness to spend should be a plus. With Flynn, there is the same potential for a bust as there is with a draft choice. Look at Kolb in Arizona. He hasn't done anything to justify what Arizona paid, even when he was healthy.

[skinsfan#33]

I'm worried that Cleveland will land Flynn and RGIII. Then what!?

I'm sorry but why in the fraks sale would Cleveland sign Flynn and then draft RG3! They have McCoy as a back up if Flynn bombs.

[1niksder]

I'm worried that Cleveland will land Flynn and RGIII. Then what!?

I'm sorry but why in the fraks sale would Cleveland sign Flynn and then draft RG3! They have McCoy as a back up if Flynn bombs.

That's why Washington should get both of them... the other options have already bombed

[The Hogster]

If fans are locking in on RG3 and Luck, then you're setting yourself for dissapointment. It's going to cost a King's ransom to move up. Given our recent draft record, I think the Shanahan's are looking closely at the second tier of QBs (Tyler Wilson, Tannenhill, Foles, Weeden). Remember, this is the SAME staff that passed on Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Colin Kapernick, & Ryan Mallet and actually went into this year with John Beck & Rex Grossman. I think they'll have no problem looking for their guy among those available in the 2nd round, ESPECIALLY if they pick up another 2nd round pick by moving down.

Remember people. These kids are all men. They put their pants on the same way. Just because Luck & RG3 are "sure things" doesn't mean that Tyler Wilson, Tannenhill, Nick Foles etc will not become very good QBs.

Drew Brees was an early 2. Knocked down for his lack of height. Dalton is in the Playoffs. 2nd rounder. Hell T.J. Yates is in the Playoffs too.

We need to get better players on the TEAM. Maybe that means getting off of the Luck & Griffin bandwagon.

[Red_One43]

I think there are only two teams ahead of the Skins that will look to upgrade at QB next year, Indy and Cle. Assuming Indy goes with Luck, Cle will have to decide whether to take RG3, sign Flynn or stick with Colt McCoy.

Flynn might be the best option for them, given that Holmgren and Shurmer both come out of that West Coast offense background that Flynn is playing in now. And since Free Agency happens before the draft, Cleveland may be out of the running for RG3 early. (of course, they'll have to compete with other teams like miami to sign Flynn if they want him)

The bigger worry for the Skins, I think is that somebody trades up with STL or Minny to get RG3 and that may force their hand. I'm convinced that Shanny will identify the guy he wants, and go get him. I don't think anybody saw the Cutler pick coming when he was in Denver, and so trying to guess who he'll take is a lot of fun, but ultimately pretty tough to do...

+1

[riggofan]

If fans are locking in on RG3 and Luck, then you're setting yourself for dissapointment. It's going to cost a King's ransom to move up.

Well said, I have to agree. I think Shanahan has accepted - probably a year too late - that we're more than just one player away from turning this team around. Even if that player is a potential franchise QB. Maybe free agency will change our position some, but I'm not expecting them to trade away multiple draft picks.

Also I have to say there is no way the freaking Browns beat us on Matt Flynn if we want him. Give Snyder a little credit there.

I was kind of laughing this morning listening to Mike & Mike talk about the Indy/Peyton Manning situation. They mentioned the Skins as a possible landing spot numerous times if the Colts cut ties. Nothing but speculation right now obviously, but not that hard to imagine that scenario playing out here.

Good post btw -

[gibbsfan]

If fans are locking in on RG3 and Luck, then you're setting yourself for dissapointment. It's going to cost a King's ransom to move up. Given our recent draft record, I think the Shanahan's are looking closely at the second tier of QBs (Tyler Wilson, Tannenhill, Foles, Weeden). Remember, this is the SAME staff that passed on Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Colin Kapernick, & Ryan Mallet and actually went into this year with John Beck & Rex Grossman. I think they'll have no problem looking for their guy among those available in the 2nd round, ESPECIALLY if they pick up another 2nd round pick by moving down.

Remember people. These kids are all men. They put their pants on the same way. Just because Luck & RG3 are "sure things" doesn't mean that Tyler Wilson, Tannenhill, Nick Foles etc will not become very good QBs.

Drew Brees was an early 2. Knocked down for his lack of height. Dalton is in the Playoffs. 2nd rounder. Hell T.J. Yates is in the Playoffs too.

We need to get better players on the TEAM. Maybe that means getting off of the Luck & Griffin bandwagon.

i,m with you in regards to finding a qb that can run an offense and show leadership and take command and if we can land one the those top guys great.if the chance is there to trade down get multiple picks and grab a QB in later rounds then that would be great too.i,m looking toward justin blackmon then grabbing a QB later then i,m all for it then go after BPA in other positions with the multiple picks..wait and see. we have free agency too but i don.t want to make any big splashes there either just fill a few holes again wait and see.

i agree we need more players in other positions that will help the overall team but grossman well leaves alot to be disired too so we'll see what happens its a long offseason yet again.thats when it gets depressing

[skinsfan#33]

I'm worried that Cleveland will land Flynn and RGIII. Then what!?

I'm sorry but why in the fraks sale would Cleveland sign Flynn and then draft RG3! They have McCoy as a back up if Flynn bombs.

That's why Washington should get both of them... the other options have already bombed

That makes a little more sense, except Flynn will get stater money and you HAVE to play the#6 overall pick, I don't care what possition he is. So then you would have two QBs you have to start, but you can only start one.

[skinsfan#33]

If fans are locking in on RG3 and Luck, then you're setting yourself for dissapointment. It's going to cost a King's ransom to move up. Given our recent draft record, I think the Shanahan's are looking closely at the second tier of QBs (Tyler Wilson, Tannenhill, Foles, Weeden). Remember, this is the SAME staff that passed on Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Colin Kapernick, & Ryan Mallet and actually went into this year with John Beck & Rex Grossman. I think they'll have no problem looking for their guy among those available in the 2nd round, ESPECIALLY if they pick up another 2nd round pick by moving down.

Remember people. These kids are all men. They put their pants on the same way. Just because Luck & RG3 are "sure things" doesn't mean that Tyler Wilson, Tannenhill, Nick Foles etc will not become very good QBs.

Drew Brees was an early 2. Knocked down for his lack of height. Dalton is in the Playoffs. 2nd rounder. Hell T.J. Yates is in the Playoffs too.

We need to get better players on the TEAM. Maybe that means getting off of the Luck & Griffin bandwagon.

I still think there is a chance RG3 could fall to #6. I know a lot of people don't think that is possible, but there were plentyof people that said that we would have to move up in the draft last year to get Gabbert and he fell to #10. Heck there was serious talk of Aaron Rodgers going #1 overall to the 9ers, yet he dropped down to 24 (i think).

No one can tell for sure how the draft will play out, especially 4 months before it happens. Heck most mock drafts that are done a week or less before the draft still get several picks wrong in the top ten and usually they have one or two wrong in the top 5.

[1niksder]

I'm worried that Cleveland will land Flynn and RGIII. Then what!?

I'm sorry but why in the fraks sale would Cleveland sign Flynn and then draft RG3! They have McCoy as a back up if Flynn bombs.

That's why Washington should get both of them... the other options have already bombed

That makes a little more sense, except Flynn will get stater money and you HAVE to play the#6 overall pick, I don't care what possition he is. So then you would have two QBs you have to start, but you can only start one.

They can do something crazy, like start the one that wins the job.

But what's the odds the Redskins will that kind of Luck

[StorminMormon86]

That makes a little more sense, except Flynn will get stater money and you HAVE to play the#6 overall pick, I don't care what possition he is. So then you would have two QBs you have to start, but you can only start one.

Why wouldn't you want Flynn and RGIII on our team next year? Most "experts" say Luck is the only NFL ready QB coming out of the draft, which means no matter what position RGIII is drafted, he's most likley going to ride the bench going into week 1. That's why you have Flynn, who already has NFL experience in the best offensive system in the league. If Flynn fails, you have RGIII to rely on. If Flynn succeeds, there is no more need for RGIII (trade fodder). I see it as nothing but a win/win.

[SkinsJock]

Having RGIII and Flynn as a part of the QBs available here sounds great

HOWEVER .... I don't see RGIII falling to #6 - we're NOT trading up - Snyder & Cerrato are NOT the FO here



we most likely trading down or adding to the OL

[StorminMormon86]

Having RGIII and Flynn as a part of the QBs available here sounds great

HOWEVER .... I don't see RGIII falling to #6 - we're NOT trading up - Snyder & Cerrato are NOT the FO here



we most likely trading down or adding to the OL

Are you Bruce Allen's nephew or something?

Seriously though, I agree with you. We're in all likelihood not getting RGIII, I just think someone who doesn't think Flynn and RGIII together would be logical is crazy. The way I see it, we're either going to wind up with Flynn or RGIII. The Vikings have stated their intention to stick with Ponder, the Rams are most likely staying with Bradford, so that leaves Cleveland and Indy as teams who need QBs. Indy will take Luck, and Cleveland will most likley take RGIII. However, if they take the bait (about the Redskins being "excited" over Flynn) and sign Flynn, they no longer have a need to draft a QB (since they already would have McCoy). Then we would get RGIII. I just hope they don't do something stupid like resign Grossman.

[KazooSkinsFan]

Whatever happens, we are going to get a new QB. While I was against reaching for a QB the last couple years, Shannahan can't afford to start his third season w/o a legit stater playing or at least in preperation.

[The Hogster]

Whatever happens, we are going to get a new QB. While I was against reaching for a QB the last couple years, Shannahan can't afford to start his third season w/o a legit stater playing or at least in preperation.

WOW. I agree with Kazoo twice in one week.

[absinthe1023]

That makes a little more sense, except Flynn will get stater money and you HAVE to play the#6 overall pick, I don't care what possition he is. So then you would have two QBs you have to start, but you can only start one.

Why wouldn't you want Flynn and RGIII on our team next year? Most "experts" say Luck is the only NFL ready QB coming out of the draft, which means no matter what position RGIII is drafted, he's most likley going to ride the bench going into week 1. That's why you have Flynn, who already has NFL experience in the best offensive system in the league. If Flynn fails, you have RGIII to rely on. If Flynn succeeds, there is no more need for RGIII (trade fodder). I see it as nothing but a win/win.

RGIII would cost multiple high draft picks and/or current productive players, and Flynn will command a premium as the best FA QB available. Their combined salary would be an immense amount to tie up at one position, not to mention the loss of picks/players to move up for RGIII.

The end result would be a team with limited cap flexibility for FAs at other positions and still no proven QB on the roster.

Obtaining both players would be a disastrous way to proceed here.

[Chris Luva Luva]

Their combined salary would be an immense amount to tie up at one position

Rookies don't make THAT much anymore. Plus the loss of future first round picks would offset that.

[riggofan]

RGIII would cost multiple high draft picks and/or current productive players, and Flynn will command a premium as the best FA QB available. Their combined salary would be an immense amount to tie up at one position, not to mention the loss of picks/players to move up for RGIII.

The end result would be a team with limited cap flexibility for FAs at other positions and still no proven QB on the roster.

Obtaining both players would be a disastrous way to proceed here.

This just isn't remotely true, especially with the new rookie wage scale. In 2010, the #6 pick got $58m with $29m guaranteed. In 2011, the #6 pick got $16.2 million guaranteed. That's a huge difference.

Look at the Titans last year if you need further proof. They signed Matt Hasslebeck for something like 3 years/$20m the same year they drafted Jake Locker at #8 and paid him $12m. I guarantee if you the Titans can make that work financially, Dan Snyder can do it better.

I would also note that because the Titans signed Hasslebeck, Jake Locker the #8 pick DID NOT start this season - and probably would not have played at all if Hasslebeck stayed healthy. So this idea that "the #6 pick HAS to start" this year is just flat out not true.

[riggofan]

Having RGIII and Flynn as a part of the QBs available here sounds great

HOWEVER .... I don't see RGIII falling to #6 - we're NOT trading up - Snyder & Cerrato are NOT the FO here



we most likely trading down or adding to the OL

Are you Bruce Allen's nephew or something?

LMAO. That guy is constantly posting stuff like he just got back from lunch with Shanny. Somebody needs to tell him what "IMHO" means.

[absinthe1023]

Their combined salary would be an immense amount to tie up at one position

Rookies don't make THAT much anymore. Plus the loss of future first round picks would offset that.

The first half of your statement is correct, but Flynn will command a premium as some team will likely overpay him with a Kolb-like contract, so the overall cap hit at the QB position will be large and there STILL wouldn't be a franchise QB on the roster.

[1niksder]

RGIII would cost multiple high draft picks and/or current productive players, and Flynn will command a premium as the best FA QB available. Their combined salary would be an immense amount to tie up at one position, not to mention the loss of picks/players to move up for RGIII.

The end result would be a team with limited cap flexibility for FAs at other positions and still no proven QB on the roster.

Obtaining both players would be a disastrous way to proceed here.

This just isn't remotely true, especially with the new rookie wage scale. In 2010, the #6 pick got $58m with $29m guaranteed. In 2011, the #6 pick got $16.2 million guaranteed. That's a huge difference.

Look at the Titans last year if you need further proof. They signed Matt Hasslebeck for something like 3 years/$20m the same year they drafted Jake Locker at #8 and paid him $12m. I guarantee if you the Titans can make that work financially, Dan Snyder can do it better.

I would also note that because the Titans signed Hasslebeck, Jake Locker the #8 pick DID NOT start this season - and probably would not have played at all if Hasslebeck stayed healthy. So this idea that "the #6 pick HAS to start" this year is just flat out not true.

[absinthe1023]

RGIII would cost multiple high draft picks and/or current productive players, and Flynn will command a premium as the best FA QB available. Their combined salary would be an immense amount to tie up at one position, not to mention the loss of picks/players to move up for RGIII.

The end result would be a team with limited cap flexibility for FAs at other positions and still no proven QB on the roster.

Obtaining both players would be a disastrous way to proceed here.

This just isn't remotely true, especially with the new rookie wage scale. In 2010, the #6 pick got $58m with $29m guaranteed. In 2011, the #6 pick got $16.2 million guaranteed. That's a huge difference.

Look at the Titans last year if you need further proof. They signed Matt Hasslebeck for something like 3 years/$20m the same year they drafted Jake Locker at #8 and paid him $12m. I guarantee if you the Titans can make that work financially, Dan Snyder can do it better.

I would also note that because the Titans signed Hasslebeck, Jake Locker the #8 pick DID NOT start this season - and probably would not have played at all if Hasslebeck stayed healthy. So this idea that "the #6 pick HAS to start" this year is just flat out not true.

See my response to CLL above. I'm aware that rookies post-Bradford will not command huge salaries during their rookie contracts. That's why I didn't mention RGIII's rookie salary alone as a big stumbling block, but focused on the loss of high picks/current players that would be incurred in moving up to draft him. His salary is only significant in that it would be combined with Flynn's at a position where only one player can start.

Flynn will be given a bigger deal than Hasselbeck, and there's no real evidence that he'd be able to serve as a placeholder starter for a young QB in this offense. Hasselbeck, at least, was a proven veteran starter and the Titans knew that he could shoulder the load for at least a season, making him both a cheap and logical option. With Flynn, a team will be paying considerably more but with much less assurance that he can be a viable, longterm starter.