No Luck... so... Now What?

[SkinsJock]

I have stated my preference - ad infinitum

I can understand the fans wanting a great QB like Andrew Luck looks like being - it is going to cost a franchise a lot to get him

[1niksder]

The hopes and dreams of Redskin fans (even if they are too stubborn or dense headed to realize it) hinges on whether or not Bruce Allen has a little George Allen in his bones, and embraces the idea that "The Future Is Now" and understands that for the Redskins to drag themselves out of a 20 year drought of success, an Elite Quarterback is THE BEST FORMULA given all the evidence we have for how valuable guys like Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady have been to their respective franchises.

What is Andrew Luck really worth ? (assuming he lives up to his potential). He's worth whatever it takes to get him ..... WHATEVER IT TAKES .... 4 #1's ? ABSOLUTELY he's worth every penny of 4 1st round picks without a moment's hesitation.

Your list of elite quarterbacks on has one guy that was taken #1 overall and he was traded the same day, none of the others got picked in the top 20. Two weren't even picked in the 1st round.

If you look at the last 10 QBs taken with the number one overall pick you have two that are no longer in the NFL, one that took a break to spend some time in prison, one that held out this off season demanding a trade. Eil Manning and his backup and 4 four guys that have never played in a post season game.

It's a crap shoot....

That was the point. I never suggested that the QBs I listed were elite. ... just successful to one degree or another, with the truly elite QBs very rare. But I'm covering a lot more territory than just the last 10 picks. I covered the last 20 years, and ALSO noted how many of the Redskin's 17 1st round picks were total busts ... which kinda takes the wind out of the sails of those who think picks shouldn't be traded, as if some other choice besides a QB is somehow a lock for being a star player.

Also, the link I posted showed that among those that are very successful to elite are taken early in the draft, and those who become franchise QB taken later in the draft are almost non-existent.

Top tier QBs coming from the high 1st round picks are about 50/50 success rate .... outside of that, about 95% FAIL rate.

So ... which odds would you take, with YOUR MONEY? 50% or 5% ? That was the point. That 95% fail rate is almost a guaranteed failure, taking the approach many have suggested that we trade down, not up, and pick a QB in the 2nd round ... or trade for someone like Flynn, who fits the same category.

But I don't know a thing. We all know how wrong I was when I told all of you 6 years ago that Jason Campbell would never amount to more than a backup QB at best.

Campbell was the starter when he went down and his team paid a kings ransom to get his replacement... just saying

You didn't say they were elite? Then why did you use them as examples of elite QBs?

You posted 20 years of picks, to point out what has happened under guys that aren't here anymore has a reason to trade up to the top spot in the draft to get a QB. I posted the last ten QBs to get drafted in the top spot. I'm not sure what your point was? But I was just pointing out only one of them has one a Super Bowl, half of them aren't with the team that selected them and more than 50% of them have never led their team to the playoff.

You further lost me with your list of elite QBs... Manning is the #1 pick on your list and the worst of the four IMO. I'd put Big Ben ahead of him but that still would change the fact Eli was the only top ten pick in the group, Brees was a first rounder and Brady didn't get selected the day. Your list of elite QBs (including Ben) had 20% picked with the first overall pick. The other 80% were selected in spots that are lower than where the Skins are currently selecting and would fall into that 5% category you asked if I would take.

The 10 QB selected covered a 13 year span in fairness going back another 7 years would bring that number up to twelve and they both sport Super Bowl Championship bling, but that's only 25% of the group that's won the big one after being selected number one overall

You also overlooked a future HOF LT that the Redskins selected in the 1st round during that 20 year span of players that you listed... Jake will never forgive you if he see that list

[SkinsJock]

Ryan Leaf's deal was truly surprising but Andrew Luck seems to possess a desire to 'succeed' that Leaf did not

I may be wrong but I think that Leaf thought that he did not need to do anything after he was selected
I think that both Luck and Griffin know that they are going to have to really work hard to make it in the NFL


it is very important for a college QB that he get drafted by a franchise that knows how to help him become an NFL QB

[RayNAustin]

You further lost me with your list of elite QBs... Manning is the #1 pick on your list and the worst of the four IMO. I'd put Big Ben ahead of him but that still would change the fact Eli was the only top ten pick in the group, Brees was a first rounder and Brady didn't get selected the day. Your list of elite QBs (including Ben) had 20% picked with the first overall pick. The other 80% were selected in spots that are lower than where the Skins are currently selecting and would fall into that 5% category you asked if I would take.

The 10 QB selected covered a 13 year span in fairness going back another 7 years would bring that number up to twelve and they both sport Super Bowl Championship bling, but that's only 25% of the group that's won the big one after being selected number one overall

You also overlooked a future HOF LT that the Redskins selected in the 1st round during that 20 year span of players that you listed... Jake will never forgive you if he see that list

Out of the last 11 #1 Overall Pick QBs, I count 7 good ones, 3 busts, and 1 (jury still deciding).

2011 - Cam Newton

2010 - Sam Bradford

2009 - Mathew Stafford

2007 - J. Russel (BUST)

2005 - Alex Smith (he looked like a bust, but maybe not now)

2004 - Eli Manning

2003 - Carson Palmer

2002 - David Car (BUST)

2001 - Michael Vick

1999 - Tim Couch (BUST)

1998 - Peyton Manning


These were all #1 overall QBs picked. Now you can argue that Bradford has proved nothing, but he's shown talent on a real bad team, and now he's been banged up. Cam Newton has shown to be ELITE early, and he should become one of the top players if he's handled properly. Alex Smith has looked like a real bust until this year, but now, his numbers are pretty darned good ... not elite, but in the top half of QBs in the league right now.

So that's a 60-70% success rate for the number 1 overall pick ... the numbers decline to about 55% for the top 10, and lower 1st round picks decline further. Outside of the 1st Round .... rounds 2 and beyond, good QBs are rarely found.

[The Hogster]

Regardless of the percentages, we need a QB. All we need to focus on is properly evaluating the talent available, not the success rate of others.

[SkinsJock]

actually we need 2 QBs

we have to find someone to play the position while the QB we draft gets ready - Grossman or Beck are not starting QBs

I think there should be a few QBs available that can do a better job than Grossman

[GoSkins]

actually we need 2 QBs

we have to find someone to play the position while the QB we draft gets ready - Grossman or Beck are not starting QBs

I think there should be a few QBs available that can do a better job than Grossman

And those names are?

[GoSkins]

Landry Jones might come back for senior year:

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entr ... 5/34061345

If in fact Landry stays the value for Luck and RGIII will be high, very high.

[skinsfan#33]

Campbell was the starter when he went down and his team paid a kings ransom to get his replacement... just saying

I wouldn't call a 2nd and 4th a King's ransom, but if you do, what do you call the 3rd, 1st, and 4th that was given up to get JC?

Or the two 2nds and a 6th that was given up for Rocky McIntosh. (unrelated, just chaps my a$$). Or the 3rd for the TJ "tip toe burgler" Duckett (and then barely play him.

[1niksder]

Campbell was the starter when he went down and his team paid a kings ransom to get his replacement... just saying

I wouldn't call a 2nd and 4th a King's ransom, but if you do, what do you call the 3rd, 1st, and 4th that was given up to get JC?

Or the two 2nds and a 6th that was given up for Rocky McIntosh. (unrelated, just chaps my a$$). Or the 3rd for the TJ "tip toe burgler" Duckett (and then barely play him.

The Raiders gave up a first round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick in 2013 that could become a first round pick, to get Campbell's 31 year old replacement not a second and fourth

As far as the examples you gave, you know good and well Vinny couldn't figure why he was getting such sweet deals all the time

[SkinsJock]

if we'd just kept Dumb & Dumber in charge here for another 2 seasons we wouldn't have to give up anything for Luck




as some of you know - I am the resident fence sitter

I might be softening my stance on giving up a bunch of picks for Andrew Luck


not quite there yet but ..... I am weakening

[CanesSkins26]

if we'd just kept Dumb & Dumber in charge here for another 2 seasons we wouldn't have to give up anything for Luck




as some of you know - I am the resident fence sitter

I might be softening my stance on giving up a bunch of picks for Andrew Luck


not quite there yet but ..... I am weakening

I can understand the desire not to give up draft picks. I'm generally very opposed to giving up picks. However, what makes sense to me in this instance is that we really don't have very many other options. We have nobody on our roster that's a long-term solution; I don't like the idea of having to trade for Leinart or bringing in another stopgap like Flynn; Jones looks like he's heading back to college; and our record next year should be better than this year so it would take even more to try and trade up for a qb.

The post-first round prospects are also less compelling this year than they were last year. Maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see a Dalton-like player out there. Tannehill doesn't have a lot of experience and is a project, Moore is smaller than most high school quarterbacks, Weeden is already 28-years old, etc.

Given all of the above, and unless Jones comes out (if we are sitting around 5 or 6 I would take him in a heartbeat), I think that our best option is to go all in for either Luck or RGIII.

[SkinsJock]

if we'd just kept Dumb & Dumber in charge here for another 2 seasons we wouldn't have to give up anything for Luck
as some of you know - I am the resident fence sitter
I might be softening my stance on giving up a bunch of picks for Andrew Luck
not quite there yet but ..... I am weakening

I can understand the desire not to give up draft picks. I'm generally very opposed to giving up picks. However, what makes sense to me in this instance is that we really don't have very many other options. We have nobody on our roster that's a long-term solution; I don't like the idea of having to trade for Leinart or bringing in another stopgap like Flynn; Jones looks like he's heading back to college; and our record next year should be better than this year so it would take even more to try and trade up for a qb.

The post-first round prospects are also less compelling this year than they were last year. Maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see a Dalton-like player out there. Tannehill doesn't have a lot of experience and is a project, Moore is smaller than most high school quarterbacks, Weeden is already 28-years old, etc.

Given all of the above, and unless Jones comes out (if we are sitting around 5 or 6 I would take him in a heartbeat), I think that our best option is to go all in for either Luck or RGIII.

to add to you point Canes - there is no doubt that this FO put themselves in this situation by:
1 making a bad miscalculation with McNabb
2 thinking that Beck would be able to help at QB
3 not drafting a QB

now ... I'm glad they didn't just draft any QB but ....

the QB situation is critical - these guys have got to get it right

there are a lot of good players here and we have improved our depth but ....

we must draft a QB and we must add offensive linemen

[Manchester_Redskin]

Must say I'm constantly amazed that people on this board actually seemed to believe what Shanahan said at the begining of the season about Beck being his man etc etc etc

I'd be the first to admit that my knowledge of the game is limited. Its not my 'national sport' and I rely entirely on what I have managed to see on tv/read on the net over the years. But even I knew at the begining of this season that we were not going to get very far with the pile of garbage we had at QB, so you think that Shanahan didnt know the same? if he didnt then he's no right to be a head coach. Obviously he wasnt going to come out and admit it so he said the complete opposite. My guess is that he didnt like the look of last years QB draft so took the opportunity to amass picks and fill some holes, with the expectation that this years draft would be better. Even if just Luck, RG and Jones declare its still an upgrade on last year.

I also cant see us getting Luck or RG without having to trade up a bit, even if we end up with the 4 or 5 pick . There are enough teams out there who need a new QB and its actually easier to decide to trade up when you are picking at 14 then it is if picking at 4, imagine if we sit tight at say pick 4 (if we can pick that high) and someone claim-jumps us by trading up to three. I'd support the FO trading up to the number 2 spot, the cost wont be as high and it means we get a projected-franchise QB. Least it reduces the risk of using our top-5 first pick on another 'pothead'

[DarthMonk]

Seems like there is a very real chance the Rams lose and the Colts win. Then the Rams pick first. Then they move Bradford and pick Luck. We give them our #1 and #2 for Bradford.

If the Rams pick first:

1) Will they move Bradford to pick Luck?

2) If so, will we trade for Bradford?

3) Will our #1 and #2 be enough to obtain Bradford?

4) Would you, a fan, like to move forward with Bradford (Cherokee) assuming the Rams pick first, we are at, say, #7, and he costs a #1 and a #2?

DarthMonk

[Irn-Bru]

Seems like there is a very real chance the Rams lose and the Colts win. Then the Rams pick first. Then they move Bradford and pick Luck. We give them our #1 and #2 for Bradford.

If the Rams pick first:

1) Will they move Bradford to pick Luck?

2) If so, will we trade for Bradford?

3) Will our #1 and #2 be enough to obtain Bradford?

4) Would you, a fan, like to move forward with Bradford (Cherokee) assuming the Rams pick first, we are at, say, #7, and he costs a #1 and a #2?

DarthMonk

If we felt like RGIII wasn't going to make it to us, or we couldn't obtain him for a similar price, then I'd say go for it. The 1 and 2 seems like a low price. I suspect they might be able to command a 1 this year and next, and maybe some other picks in the mix.

[SkinsJock]

No matter who's picking first - the cost for any franchise for that pick is most likely going to end up as 2 x #1 picks and 2 x #2 picks

the cost to get Griffin will not be as steep but it could be at least a 1st and 2nd PLUS

[StorminMormon86]

I definitely do not want to give up critical draft picks for anyone. A QB is not going to magically turn this team around overnight. Granted, if RGIII is available come our pick I'd love to have him on the team. I just don't see it happening. There are teams with worse records (Jags, Rams, Browns, Colts) some of whom need QBs desperately.

[skinsfan#33]

There are teams with worse records (Jags, Rams, Browns, Colts) some of whom need QBs desperately.

There are several errors with this statement!

The most obvious is the fact that the Jags pick at #7 and the Skins pick ahead of them at #6.

The Rams have a franchise QB that they can’t afford to trade or bench because of the HUGE rookie contract he got and he had a MUCH worse WR corps than even the Skins and he has no TE either. I say that they are much more likely to pick Blackmon than RG3!

You could make the case that Cleveland’s WR corps is just as bad as the Rams and McCoy can’t be graded fairly w/o more talent at WR, plus they have the ammo to move up to #1 to take Luck if they want a Franchise QB and deem McCoy to not be one.

The Colts have a franchise QB already too. Some guy named Peyton. Now they have to decide about his neck, but they will have to make that decision prior to free agency because of a GINORMOUS (I know, not a real word, but it fits) bonus that is due a few days prior to the start of the new league year.

So there are no teams that have a “desperate” need of a QB, ahead of the Skins. Now the Colts could draft Luck, but they also could trade down (Cleveland would be the most likely team). Cleveland isn’t in “desperate” need of a QB, but could definitely be a player for Luck or RG3. That is just two teams with a need, not four, and none of them should be deemed "desperate".

[Redskin in Canada]

Price to move up in the Draft is TOO STEEP.

If one of the good guys lands on our 6th pick, fine. But this will not happen. I would much rather TRADE DOWN get younger, better and deeper in the roster and draft a good prospect QB in lower rounds and a decent QB in FA.

[skinsfan#33]

Price to move up in the Draft is TOO STEEP.

If one of the good guys lands on our 6th pick, fine. But this will not happen. I would much rather TRADE DOWN get younger, better and deeper in the roster and draft a good prospect QB in lower rounds and a decent QB in FA.

RiC,
I agree with that, but can you see any way Shanny keeps his job w/o getting a franchise QB? Now there are several ways to get there, but he MUST GET a FRANCHISE QB!!! If he doesn't he's done, finished, out of here!
I don't care if the team is has 8 or 9 wins next year, but if they are still floundering at QB, he's still done!

[Chris Luva Luva]

MUST GET a FRANCHISE QB!!! If he doesn't he's done, finished, out of here!

I disagree. What he MUST do is make the right decisions for this franchise.
If the guy that they want is not there, you DO NOT TAKE A QB. His job isn't in trouble, he's gonna be here for 5 years.

[Redskin in Canada]

Price to move up in the Draft is TOO STEEP.

If one of the good guys lands on our 6th pick, fine. But this will not happen. I would much rather TRADE DOWN get younger, better and deeper in the roster and draft a good prospect QB in lower rounds and a decent QB in FA.

RiC,
I agree with that, but can you see any way Shanny keeps his job w/o getting a franchise QB? Now there are several ways to get there, but he MUST GET a FRANCHISE QB!!! If he doesn't he's done, finished, out of here!
I don't care if the team is has 8 or 9 wins next year, but if they are still floundering at QB, he's still done!

I disagree.

He can win with a good but not great QB AS LONG AS he has a GREAT TEAM.

Anybody who feels that a great QB with a bad team can have a winning season and a run to the playoffs is very mistaken. Doubt me? See Carolina.

Desperate moves to climb in the Draft would be typoical of Danny Snyder. No problem for you. He will be arguing that fans want a fancy player who can return fans to FedEx, not a long term solution leading to a long-term younger, better and deeper roster.

I am not willing to sacrifice short-term gain for long-term and steady progress.

Besides, there are a number of instances where a great QB was picked below the 1st round. Do not panic. Everybody is waiting for the Redskins to give up the whole house in a desperate move for one of the two top QBs.

Keep the course. I would be delighted to pick somebody like Dalton who was picked in the 2nd round by Cinci. Look at them now.

[Kilmer72]

MUST GET a FRANCHISE QB!!! If he doesn't he's done, finished, out of here!

I disagree. What he MUST do is make the right decisions for this franchise.
If the guy that they want is not there, you DO NOT TAKE A QB. His job isn't in trouble, he's gonna be here for 5 years.

Well, if he keeps regressing in wins he might not make it to year 4.

[Chris Luva Luva]

Well, if he keeps regressing in wins he might not make it to year 4.

I doubt it.