PulpExposure wrote:Red_One43 wrote:Interesting facts about Torain vs. Helu:
Ryan Torain and rookie Roy Helu. Torain is the starter in name only, with Helu getting the majority of the snaps since Hightower went down. Fans are clamoring for even more of Helu, pointing to his higher yards per carry (4.9 vs. Torain’s 3.4.) Looking at yards per carry alone can be misleading. Torain is actually getting more yards after contact (2.8 vs. 2.4) and it’s important to take into consideration that Helu may have the element of surprise in his favor. When Helu’s lined up in the backfield, Washington only runs the ball 20% of the time. When Torain takes the field that number jumps dramatically to 50%.
These facts don't change my opinon about Helu needing more playing time, but at the same time, this facts support my opinion that Torain's troubles this year are not his own. Clearly he saved our behinds in the Ram game when Hightower and Helu couldn't get it going.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/20 ... s-week-12/
The problem with Torain is exactly that one Rams game. He averaged 7.1 a carry that game...but in EVERY OTHER GAME THIS YEAR, he's not been above 2.2 yards per carry. He had 19 carries for 135 yards against the Rams, but 36 carries for 57 yards (1.58 yards per carry) aggregate in the other 6 games he's played in. Blocking is bad, and he's not getting a lot of carries, but the exact same situations apply to Helu as well, and he's been more productive (solely running the ball, I'm talking about).
So I wouldn't use aggregate stats for Torain, as you have that 1 Rams game tremendously skewing his statistics. That's called an extreme outlier...
Using stats to aggregate for Torain? I think that we can agree that stats don't tell all, but they do tell you something. Yards after contact stats indicate that Torain is the stronger runner - we all know that and the YAC stat supports that. It also
may indicate that Torain is getting hit in the backfield more often. The only way to change the
may to an
is or isn't is to analysize each carry by both backs. I don't have access to video of each back's carry.
The stat when Torain is in the game 50 percent of the plays are runs vs 20% for Helu
may indicate that the defenders are stacking the line and not backing up on their heels when they see a potential hand off. They don't have to worry too much about play action passing. Torain is the action. Again, without video to analyze the backers on each of Torain's and Helu's carries, I can only say probably which I think the author of the article is saying.
The 50% stat proves that the exact situations don't apply to Helu - 50% runs vs 20% runs don't count as exact situation.
As I said, the stats don't change my mind that Helu should get more touches, because behind the same line, he is finding holes that Torain is not finding. The stat that says that we will pass more often in the game with Helu is a plus for him, but last year Torain was no slouch in the passing game either - check out his receiving stats from last year.
If you want to apply your "exact" same situation test, then explain why Helu couldn't run against the Rams and Torain could. It is not a "problem"for Torain that he gained 135 yards against the Rams and hasn't come clsoe to that since. Shanny said that he rides the "hot" back and in the Rams game it was Torain. In the subsequent games it has been Helu (or should I way "warm" back). What that spells is running back by committee and since Helu is getting the most touches, Helu seems to have the edge on who should be playing more. The stats don't lie here.
But here's a question that none of us know the answer. Let me set it up first. Against San Fran, Helu started. Helu has 8 carries for 40 yards in the first 8 minutes of the game. Not a bad start, eh? Here's the question -Why did Torain start the Miami and Dallas games? Here's an add on question, why did Helu get more touches than Torain even though he didn't start (we have a good guess why Helu is getting more touches)?
My answer to the 1st question is, the first 15 plays are scripted. Grossman says that the run is supposed to set up what the Skins do. Torain spells run for the Skins 50% of the time. Torain is not necessarily starting because he is the better back. He is starting because he fits what the Skins are trying to do with him - either as a decoy or to actually pound the ball and then change up with Helu.
Why isn't this working? I have heard criticism from players who understand zone blocking say that our players haven't gotten together as a unit - it is almost every play that one man didn't get his responsibility done. One play it is this guy the next it is that guy. Also coming from Kyle, he said that the backs (plural) are missing cuts. These issues point to inexperience and lack of playing time together.
One final note - Torain is the same back that he was last year - what's the different this year? Last year, the O line got better as the season progressed, this year it is riddled with injuries and has regressed. Why the knock on Torain?
Helu is the better all around back than Torian. There is no need to knock Torain who is a good back in his own right.
