What's Behind a Point Spread?

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DarthMonk
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What's Behind a Point Spread?

Post by DarthMonk »

I've often heard it said (and seen it posted) that a Vegas spread has nothing to do with what Vegas thinks about the teams - that all the spread is really about is getting an equal amount of money on both teams. I myself have posted as much. I think it happened a few years back in a thread about Pats vs Steelers in the playoffs and whom Vegas would favor. I also saw that viewpoint recently in a Hog Wash thread.

I have learned differently.

In most games Vegas plays it safe and puts a spread out designed to equalize the betting. They then break even but make 10% on all bets placed - the so-called vig. The standard logic says Vegas does this in all games and never loses. If the initial line does not equalize the betting the line moves to balance the betting.

This is not, in fact, true.

Vegas does play it safe on most games. But every week Vegas picks a few games that they beleive the public will overbet the wrong way. Here is an example from week 3.

The Pats opened as a 9 point favorite over the Bills.

The Bills are historically bad, went 1-3 in the pre-season, blew out a weakened KC, and had eeked out a win over a Raider team nobody beleived in yet.

The Pats had just destroyed the Jags at home and Tampa on the road. They looked like an unstoppable juggernaught that might go undefeated.

Vegas knew the public would be all over the Pats and for some reason thought the Bills would play them tough.

How do I know?

When the public saw Pats by 9 the jizzed all over it. "Free money!" Now with all that money going on the Pats the line should have gotten bigger to discourage money on the Pats and to equalize the betting so Vegas could make their vig. The line shoulld have gone to 10.5 or more. Guess what happened.

THE LINE MOVED THE OTHER WAY! VEGAS WANTED EVEN MORE MONEY ON THE PATS!

Just before kickoff the line was at 7 and money was still pouring in on the Pats.

The Bills covered (actually won straight up) and Vegas made a mint.

Sometimes Vegas takes a bath on these plays but when they do the vig from the other games lets them break even.

In the same week:

Bengals opened -1.5, the public bet the 49ers, and the spread got bigger! Bemgals covered. Vegas wins.

Saints opened -5.5, the public bet them, and the spread got smaller! Saints covered. Vegas loses.

Browns open -1, the public bet the Dolphins, and the spread got bigger! Dolphins covered (won outright). Vegas wins.

Lions opened -4, the public bet the Lions, and the spread got smaller! Push. Vegas gets vig only.

Jets opened at -3.5, the public bet them, and the spread got smaller! Raiders cover. Vegas wins.

Small sample but "fading" the public on a spread moving the wrong way went 4-1-1. Not bad!

A decent way to make money long-term when betting the NFL is to look for spreads that move the wrong way and then bet against the public.

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Post by SkinsJock »

What you posted may in fact be correct

I had to do a 'show' in Vegas a couple of years ago and was in one of the 'betting rooms' - I was talking with a guy there that said he bet a lot of money on football and especially all the 'trick bets' that were available - I asked him about the teams - he said he never watched football and most NFL bettors, the bigger ones, could care less - the only thing that mattered was BETTING

I never gamble, will not even buy a lottery ticket - over a few drinks, this guy clearly painted a picture for me - the NFL line had little to nothing to do with these 'bettors' thinking about which team had the better chance to win - his words were "that's for the suckers, that don't have a clue about betting on NFL games ....."
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
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Re: What's Behind a Point Spread?

Post by DarthMonk »

DarthMonk wrote:-snip-Vegas does play it safe on most games. But every week Vegas picks a few games that they beleive the public will overbet the wrong way.

--snip-

A decent way to make money long-term when betting the NFL is to look for spreads that move the wrong way and then bet against the public.

DarthMonk


I've decided to start testing this. I found one game this week that fit's the mold - Colts @ Saints.

The Saints opened as 15.5 point favorites.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/u ... /odds.aspx

The public bet them heavily - the Colts suck, right?

To equalize the betting the Saints should be favored by even more. But the spread has moved the other way encouraging even more money on the Saints. They are now favored by only 14 and, quite naturally, the money is pouring in.

Vegas is gambling the vig on all the other games that the Colts will cover.

Stay tuned.

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Re: What's Behind a Point Spread?

Post by Deadskins »

DarthMonk wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:-snip-Vegas does play it safe on most games. But every week Vegas picks a few games that they beleive the public will overbet the wrong way.

--snip-

A decent way to make money long-term when betting the NFL is to look for spreads that move the wrong way and then bet against the public.

DarthMonk


I've decided to start testing this. I found one game this week that fit's the mold - Colts @ Saints.

The Saints opened as 15.5 point favorites.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/u ... /odds.aspx

The public bet them heavily - the Colts suck, right?

To equalize the betting the Saints should be favored by even more. But the spread has moved the other way encouraging even more money on the Saints. They are now favored by only 14 and, quite naturally, the money is pouring in.

Vegas is gambling the vig on all the other games that the Colts will cover.

Stay tuned.

DarthMonk

Where do you get that info?
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Re: What's Behind a Point Spread?

Post by DarthMonk »

Deadskins wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:-snip-Vegas does play it safe on most games. But every week Vegas picks a few games that they beleive the public will overbet the wrong way.

--snip-

A decent way to make money long-term when betting the NFL is to look for spreads that move the wrong way and then bet against the public.

DarthMonk


I've decided to start testing this. I found one game this week that fits the mold - Colts @ Saints.

The Saints opened as 15.5 point favorites.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/u ... /odds.aspx

The public bet them heavily - the Colts suck, right?

To equalize the betting the Saints should be favored by even more. But the spread has moved the other way encouraging even more money on the Saints. They are now favored by only 14 and, quite naturally, the money is pouring in.

Vegas is gambling the vig on all the other games that the Colts will cover.

Stay tuned.

DarthMonk

Where do you get that info?


The movement in the spread or where the money is going?

DarthMonk
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Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
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Re: What's Behind a Point Spread?

Post by DarthMonk »

BTW - other games where Vegas is "exposed" are Jacksonville, Minnesota, Arizona, and St Louis. The favorites have been bet heavily and the lines haven't moved. Vegas like these dogs to cover.

DarthMonk

DarthMonk wrote:
Deadskins wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:-snip-Vegas does play it safe on most games. But every week Vegas picks a few games that they beleive the public will overbet the wrong way.

--snip-

A decent way to make money long-term when betting the NFL is to look for spreads that move the wrong way and then bet against the public.

DarthMonk


I've decided to start testing this. I found one game this week that fits the mold - Colts @ Saints.

The Saints opened as 15.5 point favorites.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/u ... /odds.aspx

The public bet them heavily - the Colts suck, right?

To equalize the betting the Saints should be favored by even more. But the spread has moved the other way encouraging even more money on the Saints. They are now favored by only 14 and, quite naturally, the money is pouring in.

Vegas is gambling the vig on all the other games that the Colts will cover.

Stay tuned.

DarthMonk

Where do you get that info?


The movement in the spread or where the money is going?

DarthMonk
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Scalp 'em, Swamp 'em,
We will take 'em big score!
Read 'em, Weep 'em Touchdown,
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The POINT SPREAD

Post by SkinsJock »

g'day DM - Just to add to your 'information' - more money (MUCH MORE) is wagered (or taken in) by people that do NOT 'watch' the games or know very much about the players or coaches, IF ANYTHING :lol:

It is generally agreed that the point spread is not a very good indication of the result expected

IT IS A BETTING LINE is all it is
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
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Post by DesertSkin »

This is interesting, but simply not true. First and foremost, the sports book is a business, which if handled correctly guarentees a 10% profit. If they, in fact, did what you are claiming, they'd be gambling and risk going out of business. Vegas makes money because of a smart, disciplined business model, not because they gamble. To turn down a 10% profit margin would be dumb.

The spread in the cases you mentioned probably moved because the professional gamblers identified the "error" in the spread and bet heavy in the opposite of the publics perception.

The below link even mentions that often Vegas routes for the public, not the other way around.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/spor ... admade.htm
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Re: What's Behind a Point Spread?

Post by Deadskins »

DarthMonk wrote:
Deadskins wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:-snip-Vegas does play it safe on most games. But every week Vegas picks a few games that they beleive the public will overbet the wrong way.

--snip-

A decent way to make money long-term when betting the NFL is to look for spreads that move the wrong way and then bet against the public.

DarthMonk


I've decided to start testing this. I found one game this week that fits the mold - Colts @ Saints.

The Saints opened as 15.5 point favorites.

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/u ... /odds.aspx

The public bet them heavily - the Colts suck, right?

To equalize the betting the Saints should be favored by even more. But the spread has moved the other way encouraging even more money on the Saints. They are now favored by only 14 and, quite naturally, the money is pouring in.

Vegas is gambling the vig on all the other games that the Colts will cover.

Stay tuned.

DarthMonk

Where do you get that info?


The movement in the spread or where the money is going?

Where the money is going. How do you know that there is more money on the Saints than the Colts?
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Post by DarthMonk »

DesertSkin wrote:This is interesting, but simply not true. First and foremost, the sports book is a business, which if handled correctly guarentees a 10% profit. If they, in fact, did what you are claiming, they'd be gambling and risk going out of business. Vegas makes money because of a smart, disciplined business model, not because they gamble. To turn down a 10% profit margin would be dumb.

The spread in the cases you mentioned probably moved because the professional gamblers identified the "error" in the spread and bet heavy in the opposite of the publics perception.

The below link even mentions that often Vegas routes for the public, not the other way around.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/spor ... admade.htm


I repsectfully and vehemently disagree with you. The fact is several games saw one-sided betting with no movement in the line at all.

You actually don't seem to understand. The spreads either did not move or moved THE WRONG WAY. This is not the result of big bets. You seem to be confused.

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Post by DarthMonk »

DesertSkin wrote:This is interesting, but simply not true. First and foremost, the sports book is a business, which if handled correctly guarentees a 10% profit. If they, in fact, did what you are claiming, they'd be gambling and risk going out of business. Vegas makes money because of a smart, disciplined business model, not because they gamble. To turn down a 10% profit margin would be dumb.

The spread in the cases you mentioned probably moved because the professional gamblers identified the "error" in the spread and bet heavy in the opposite of the publics perception.

The below link even mentions that often Vegas routes for the public, not the other way around.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/spor ... admade.htm


I'm starting to see a little bit of what your saying. It hinges around the word "public." I'm simply referring to total dollars bet - sharp money or not.

Using "public" to mean ignorant non-sharps could lead Vegas to route for the public only if there was more money on the other side from sharps.

The fact is, betting is often not equalized.

Cases in point this week. Vegas took a bath this week. They lost big time on the Saints, the Pack, and the Cowboys. They simply did not make 10% on these games. The betting was not equal on both sides. It happens. Vegas is praying the Jags cover tonight.

Also, if you were guaranteed 10% 300 times a year but could take 100 chances at either making or losing 100% and you knew you would hit on those chances often enough over the long haul, then the smart move would be to take the chances. Over the long haul there is simply a higher EV.

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Post by Deadskins »

DarthMonk wrote:The betting was not equal on both sides.

How can you find this info? Unless you are a bookie, how would you find out which side of a bet has more money on it?
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Post by DarthMonk »

Deadskins wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:The betting was not equal on both sides.

How can you find this info? Unless you are a bookie, how would you find out which side of a bet has more money on it?


Public knowledge on the internet. Typical link:

http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html?sort=rot

For whoever wants to believe it (just look at the cold, hard data) Vegas is exposed on the following games (clearly, since over 70% of the money is going on one team but THE SPREAD IS NOT MOVING OR IS MOVING THE WRONG WAY!), that is, they think the following teams will cover (otherwise the unequal betting WOULD HAVE MOVED THE SPREAD IN A DIRECTION TO PROMOTE BET EQUALIZATION!):

Washington +4 --- 88% of money on 49ers and line HAS NOT MOVED!

Baltimore +3.5 --- 77% of money on Pitt and either LINE HAS NOT MOVED OR HAS MOVED TO PROMOTE MORE BETTING ON PITT!

Indianapolis +7.5 --- 86% of money on Falcons yet LINE HAS MOVED 2 TO 2.5 THE WRONG WAY PROMOTING EVEN MORE BETTING ON FALCONS!

San Diego +5.5 --- 80% of money on PACK with NO MOVEMENT IN LINE!

Kansas City -4.5 --- 80% of money on KC with NO MOVEMENT IN LINE!

CLEAR AS MUD.

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