http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... x-grossman
This is an excellent article from ESPN insider, all about Rex Grossman. Basically it talks about how there is a good trend of quarterbacks who progressed after 30. Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Rich Gannon and others have all done better as they got older.
Excellent work, and very optimistic about Grossman. Accuscore predicts:
Rex Grossman 303 CMP, 515 ATT, 58.8% CMP, 3750 YDS, 23 TD, 10 INT. 8 FMB
Rex Grossman Projections
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Skinsfan55
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Rex Grossman Projections
"Guess [Ryan Kerrigan] really does have a good motor. And is relentless. And never quits on a play. And just keeps coming. And probably eats Wheaties and drinks Apple Pie smoothies and shaves with Valvoline." -Dan Steinberg DC Sports Bog
I couldn't read the full article as I don't pay the Insider fee, but I found it interesting that all three of the quarterbacks you mentioned played for the Redskins. Where there other examples of over 30 qb mentioned in the article? Did you just list those three because they were former skins?
The Trent Green story is an interesting one for the Skins. You guys probably recall that he was developed as a QB by Norv Turner, and had a break-out season the year that Jack Kent Cooke died. The Skins were interested in resigning him, but with the uncertainty over the sale of the franchise, they couldn't get a deal done. Green signed with St. Louis, where he got injured and replaced by Kurt Warner, yada, yada, went to KC and was a top flight quarterback for several years.
I think it was a turning point for the franchise. They had finally found a franchise quarterback but couldn't keep him because JKC's will meant the team had to be sold. Had they kept Green, they could have had the QB position set for another 8 to 10 years. Instead the Skins have been searching for their franchise QB ever since. No need to trade 3 picks for Brad Johnson, no Jeff George, no Tony Banks, no Patrick Ramsey, no trade for Brunell... Those high picks could have been used to draft lineman and receivers (discounting the Vinny factor, of course).
But heck, at least we have Rex...
The Trent Green story is an interesting one for the Skins. You guys probably recall that he was developed as a QB by Norv Turner, and had a break-out season the year that Jack Kent Cooke died. The Skins were interested in resigning him, but with the uncertainty over the sale of the franchise, they couldn't get a deal done. Green signed with St. Louis, where he got injured and replaced by Kurt Warner, yada, yada, went to KC and was a top flight quarterback for several years.
I think it was a turning point for the franchise. They had finally found a franchise quarterback but couldn't keep him because JKC's will meant the team had to be sold. Had they kept Green, they could have had the QB position set for another 8 to 10 years. Instead the Skins have been searching for their franchise QB ever since. No need to trade 3 picks for Brad Johnson, no Jeff George, no Tony Banks, no Patrick Ramsey, no trade for Brunell... Those high picks could have been used to draft lineman and receivers (discounting the Vinny factor, of course).
But heck, at least we have Rex...
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Skinsfan55
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I just mentioned those guys because they seemed like the most recent players but I didn't conciously make the former Skins connection. Funny.
Also mentioned were Warren Moon, Roger Staubach, Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, Phil Simms and Kenny "The Snake" Stabler.
Also mentioned were Warren Moon, Roger Staubach, Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, Phil Simms and Kenny "The Snake" Stabler.
"Guess [Ryan Kerrigan] really does have a good motor. And is relentless. And never quits on a play. And just keeps coming. And probably eats Wheaties and drinks Apple Pie smoothies and shaves with Valvoline." -Dan Steinberg DC Sports Bog
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Can Redskins trust Rex Grossman?
The 2006 Bears went to a Super Bowl with Grossman; the Skins should give him a shot
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6
By Chris Sprow
ESPN Insider
Archive
Larry French/Getty Images
Rex Grossman played well in the Washington Redskins' opener against the New York Giants.
You don't know this, but there has never been a quarterback like Rex Grossman. Not in the NFL at least. Entering his ninth year, he's the only quarterback in NFL history to play this long and have the only season in which he started every game result in a trip to the Super Bowl. Think about that: The one time Grossman started all 16 games, he went to the Super Bowl.
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »
It wasn't Rex's doing alone, of course -- the 2006 Chicago Bears were brilliant on defense and special teams. But every regular-season game the Bears won -- all 13 of them -- was accompanied by the question of whether Grossman was an impediment that had to be overcome. Bears fans overlook it, but Grossman had among the best statistical seasons in team history, but the swings were a killer. He threw 20 interceptions, and 80 percent of them happened in five games. Good Rex, bad Rex.
Week 17 was to be a quick playoff tune-up, but Grossman went 2-for-12 with three interceptions, creating a legitimate QB controversy heading into the playoffs. It was like a final Indy 500 testing session where the driver arrived staggering drunk. Six weeks later, the Bears lost the Super Bowl, and in five seasons since, Grossman has started only 12 games for three teams.
Grossman has played one game this season and was very good. In a 28-14 win over the New York Giants on Sunday he went 21-for-34 with two touchdowns. But because it's Grossman, we don't have a sense if the good play will continue, or how firm his tenure on the job really is -- that's because even when Grossman has been successful, we're trained not to trust it.
But Mike Shanahan should take a cue from Lovie Smith and stick with Rex for now, even with John Beck looming.
Why, you ask? Let's look at the evidence.
The post-30 leap
There's no evidence that a quarterback can't greatly enhance his career beyond his age-30 season. There are 67 quarterbacks who've thrown for more yards past that point than they did before it, and at the top of the list, there aren't just some good names, there are instances of dramatic improvement. Trent Green couldn't get on the field, or stay consistently healthy up to age 30, but after, in a better situation, he threw for another 22,971 yards and, like many of the guys you see in the chart, dramatically improved his accuracy. Grossman can't be confused with Green, or the limited but steady Brad Johnson, or even the late-blooming, accurate Rich Gannon (Johnson at 34 and Gannon at 37 met in the Super Bowl). But none of the guys listed here, at age 30, would be confused with how we perceive them now.
The top 10 QBs in difference between yards thrown before 30 and after their age-30 seasons.
Before 30
After 30
QB Yards Comp % Yds Comp %
Warren Moon 9,536 54.4 39,789 59.4
Trent Green 5,504 56.4 22,971 61.6
Roger Staubach 2,943 56.1 19,757 57.1
Steve Young 8,412 58.0 24,712 66.6
Brad Johnson 6,463 62.1 22,591 61.5
George Blanda 5,917 45.2 21,003 48.5
Rich Gannon 7,218 56.4 21,512 61.7
Vinny Testaverde 16,617 52.6 29,605 58.7
Phil Simms 10,269 51.8 23,193 57.2
Ken Stabler 7,606 58.7 20,332 60.3
Accuracy can jump
To this point in his career, Grossman is a 54.4 percent passer, with 7,386 yards. However, while we know that as the game has evolved and more is expected from passers, it's not a rule that players can jump. But part of that is because the opportunities are -- rightfully -- rare for quarterbacks who haven't shown great results by this stage.
Last year, in a new system that he claims suits him far better, Michael Vick made a dramatic leap in accuracy. But historically, quarterbacks who've made that dramatic leap, often later in their careers, sustain it.
If we project Grossman's season based off his good start, and given what we know of his past, per AccuScore, we get this decent line:
Player CMP ATT COMP % PASSYD PASSTD INT FUML
Rex Grossman 303 515 58.8% 3750 23 10 8
There's zero guarantee that Grossman can become far steadier than what he's been but, based on history, there's also no reason it can't happen.
Similar context
The reason Chicago couldn't buy into the idea Grossman was driving a Super Bowl team is because the defense so exceptional. Washington's defense can't yet compare with the 2006 Bears, but it has the chance to be a really good unit. The front seven has been solidified on the interior with additions like Barry Cofield, and Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo could form a devastating pass-rushing combo on the edges of the 3-4.
But the offense has similarities too. That Chicago team featured a run-first approach with Thomas Jones as the lead back, and an average-at-best corps of wide receivers, with an aging Muhsin Muhammad as the anchor; they also had a good tight end in Desmond Clark. These Redskins have the same approach, with an improving run game, an aging anchor for the wideouts in Santana Moss and two good tight ends.
Schedule gives a chance
After their Week 1 win against a battered Giants team, the Redskins have a chance to get off to a fast start. They're favored against Arizona, a team that got shredded by Cam Newton on Sunday and lacks any significant talent in the secondary beyond rookie Patrick Peterson (and Peterson is raw). If Grossman doesn't put up good numbers against the Cardinals, there's cause for concern.
From there, Grossman will stare down a Dallas secondary that was in tatters in Week 1. Then he'll face St. Louis, now without top corner Ron Bartell for the season. After a tough matchup with Philly (where Washington may be able to run the ball well), the Skins face Carolina and Buffalo. Both teams are improved, but nobody will mistake either for a title contender just yet. If Shanahan truly wants to see if Grossman can be more than a place-holder, he couldn't have dreamed up a better opening slate.
The odd thing about Grossman is that he never really had a true break-in period. Before the 2006 season, he was so frequently injured that he started a total of seven games in three years. His first real stretch as the starter became a pressure-packed run to a Super Bowl. After the pre-playoff fiasco, he told reporters he wasn't as focused going into the game. It was a naive statement, and not the last one from Rex. But it also became bigger than it needed to be and obscured the fact that in the context of Bears history, a long and depressing quarterback saga, Rex was actually pretty decent.
That says a lot about the battered psyche of Bears fans, but it also might be a good omen for the Redskins. After years of mediocrity, they could use it.
Chris Sprow is a senior editor for ESPN The Magazine and Insider. He reports and edits on many sports and works year-round with Mel Kiper on NFL draft coverage. He also oversees ESPN's Rumor Central and has been a regular guest on ESPN networks in that role. You can find his ESPN archives here and on Twitter here.
The 2006 Bears went to a Super Bowl with Grossman; the Skins should give him a shot
EmailPrintComments
6
By Chris Sprow
ESPN Insider
Archive
Larry French/Getty Images
Rex Grossman played well in the Washington Redskins' opener against the New York Giants.
You don't know this, but there has never been a quarterback like Rex Grossman. Not in the NFL at least. Entering his ninth year, he's the only quarterback in NFL history to play this long and have the only season in which he started every game result in a trip to the Super Bowl. Think about that: The one time Grossman started all 16 games, he went to the Super Bowl.
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »
It wasn't Rex's doing alone, of course -- the 2006 Chicago Bears were brilliant on defense and special teams. But every regular-season game the Bears won -- all 13 of them -- was accompanied by the question of whether Grossman was an impediment that had to be overcome. Bears fans overlook it, but Grossman had among the best statistical seasons in team history, but the swings were a killer. He threw 20 interceptions, and 80 percent of them happened in five games. Good Rex, bad Rex.
Week 17 was to be a quick playoff tune-up, but Grossman went 2-for-12 with three interceptions, creating a legitimate QB controversy heading into the playoffs. It was like a final Indy 500 testing session where the driver arrived staggering drunk. Six weeks later, the Bears lost the Super Bowl, and in five seasons since, Grossman has started only 12 games for three teams.
Grossman has played one game this season and was very good. In a 28-14 win over the New York Giants on Sunday he went 21-for-34 with two touchdowns. But because it's Grossman, we don't have a sense if the good play will continue, or how firm his tenure on the job really is -- that's because even when Grossman has been successful, we're trained not to trust it.
But Mike Shanahan should take a cue from Lovie Smith and stick with Rex for now, even with John Beck looming.
Why, you ask? Let's look at the evidence.
The post-30 leap
There's no evidence that a quarterback can't greatly enhance his career beyond his age-30 season. There are 67 quarterbacks who've thrown for more yards past that point than they did before it, and at the top of the list, there aren't just some good names, there are instances of dramatic improvement. Trent Green couldn't get on the field, or stay consistently healthy up to age 30, but after, in a better situation, he threw for another 22,971 yards and, like many of the guys you see in the chart, dramatically improved his accuracy. Grossman can't be confused with Green, or the limited but steady Brad Johnson, or even the late-blooming, accurate Rich Gannon (Johnson at 34 and Gannon at 37 met in the Super Bowl). But none of the guys listed here, at age 30, would be confused with how we perceive them now.
The top 10 QBs in difference between yards thrown before 30 and after their age-30 seasons.
Before 30
After 30
QB Yards Comp % Yds Comp %
Warren Moon 9,536 54.4 39,789 59.4
Trent Green 5,504 56.4 22,971 61.6
Roger Staubach 2,943 56.1 19,757 57.1
Steve Young 8,412 58.0 24,712 66.6
Brad Johnson 6,463 62.1 22,591 61.5
George Blanda 5,917 45.2 21,003 48.5
Rich Gannon 7,218 56.4 21,512 61.7
Vinny Testaverde 16,617 52.6 29,605 58.7
Phil Simms 10,269 51.8 23,193 57.2
Ken Stabler 7,606 58.7 20,332 60.3
Accuracy can jump
To this point in his career, Grossman is a 54.4 percent passer, with 7,386 yards. However, while we know that as the game has evolved and more is expected from passers, it's not a rule that players can jump. But part of that is because the opportunities are -- rightfully -- rare for quarterbacks who haven't shown great results by this stage.
Last year, in a new system that he claims suits him far better, Michael Vick made a dramatic leap in accuracy. But historically, quarterbacks who've made that dramatic leap, often later in their careers, sustain it.
If we project Grossman's season based off his good start, and given what we know of his past, per AccuScore, we get this decent line:
Player CMP ATT COMP % PASSYD PASSTD INT FUML
Rex Grossman 303 515 58.8% 3750 23 10 8
There's zero guarantee that Grossman can become far steadier than what he's been but, based on history, there's also no reason it can't happen.
Similar context
The reason Chicago couldn't buy into the idea Grossman was driving a Super Bowl team is because the defense so exceptional. Washington's defense can't yet compare with the 2006 Bears, but it has the chance to be a really good unit. The front seven has been solidified on the interior with additions like Barry Cofield, and Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo could form a devastating pass-rushing combo on the edges of the 3-4.
But the offense has similarities too. That Chicago team featured a run-first approach with Thomas Jones as the lead back, and an average-at-best corps of wide receivers, with an aging Muhsin Muhammad as the anchor; they also had a good tight end in Desmond Clark. These Redskins have the same approach, with an improving run game, an aging anchor for the wideouts in Santana Moss and two good tight ends.
Schedule gives a chance
After their Week 1 win against a battered Giants team, the Redskins have a chance to get off to a fast start. They're favored against Arizona, a team that got shredded by Cam Newton on Sunday and lacks any significant talent in the secondary beyond rookie Patrick Peterson (and Peterson is raw). If Grossman doesn't put up good numbers against the Cardinals, there's cause for concern.
From there, Grossman will stare down a Dallas secondary that was in tatters in Week 1. Then he'll face St. Louis, now without top corner Ron Bartell for the season. After a tough matchup with Philly (where Washington may be able to run the ball well), the Skins face Carolina and Buffalo. Both teams are improved, but nobody will mistake either for a title contender just yet. If Shanahan truly wants to see if Grossman can be more than a place-holder, he couldn't have dreamed up a better opening slate.
The odd thing about Grossman is that he never really had a true break-in period. Before the 2006 season, he was so frequently injured that he started a total of seven games in three years. His first real stretch as the starter became a pressure-packed run to a Super Bowl. After the pre-playoff fiasco, he told reporters he wasn't as focused going into the game. It was a naive statement, and not the last one from Rex. But it also became bigger than it needed to be and obscured the fact that in the context of Bears history, a long and depressing quarterback saga, Rex was actually pretty decent.
That says a lot about the battered psyche of Bears fans, but it also might be a good omen for the Redskins. After years of mediocrity, they could use it.
Chris Sprow is a senior editor for ESPN The Magazine and Insider. He reports and edits on many sports and works year-round with Mel Kiper on NFL draft coverage. He also oversees ESPN's Rumor Central and has been a regular guest on ESPN networks in that role. You can find his ESPN archives here and on Twitter here.
"SUCK FOR LUCK"
Thanks for the link Sf55
Rex Grossman is a known quantity for Mike & Kyle - his experience helped him get the starting nod over John Beck
Neither QB has shown that are going to become really good QBs in the near term - together they provide enough for this franchise and the developing offense that we have right now
I'm encouraged about both the offensive line and the passing game - Hightower will hopefully hold onto the ball better than he did with the Cardinals - Torrain & Helu are both going to help
we are improving offensively
Rex Grossman is a known quantity for Mike & Kyle - his experience helped him get the starting nod over John Beck
Neither QB has shown that are going to become really good QBs in the near term - together they provide enough for this franchise and the developing offense that we have right now
I'm encouraged about both the offensive line and the passing game - Hightower will hopefully hold onto the ball better than he did with the Cardinals - Torrain & Helu are both going to help
we are improving offensively
Until recently, Snyder & Allen have made a lot of really bad decisions - nobody with any sense believes this franchise will get better under their guidance
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
Snyder's W/L record = 45% (80-96) - Snyder/Allen = 41% (59-84-1)
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langleyparkjoe
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riggofan
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Good article. Who knows what will happen with Grossman. We may have just witnessed the best game he will have all season.
I'll say one thing though: it would be nice to be the team getting a QB hitting his stride for a change instead of the team trading away picks for a washed up QB well past his prime.
I'll say one thing though: it would be nice to be the team getting a QB hitting his stride for a change instead of the team trading away picks for a washed up QB well past his prime.
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langleyparkjoe
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Who would do such a thing!?!?
Skinsfan55 wrote:I just mentioned those guys because they seemed like the most recent players but I didn't conciously make the former Skins connection. Funny.
Also mentioned were Warren Moon, Roger Staubach, Steve Young, Vinny Testaverde, Phil Simms and Kenny "The Snake" Stabler.
I think a couple of guys on this expanded list were pretty good from the beginning, but were kept from playing. Roger spent about five years in the Navy...that was the commitment. Most of the NFL laughed at Tom Landry and Tex Schramm for drafting him...no service academy player, and there were lots of all-americans before about '64, but none of them served out their duty time and made it in the NFL. I think Staubach was a 6th round pick...almost a freebie. Smart guys, unfortunately.
Young was a star in the second league (USFL? wow...so long ago) and backed up Joe Montana. Hard to displace Montana.
Now the others...well...
Simms was genuinely mediocre, but he played on terrible teams in the early days. Testverde was one of the worst big name U Miami QBs ever. I was amazed that he lasted...something like Trent Dilfer.
Stabler? I can't remember, but wasn't he always at least pretty decent?