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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

Cappster wrote:And its good you mention Reaganomics. here is a decent read:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... 03544.html

Sure, if going straight to the hard left for a "decent read" isn't enough, the tone of the article shows their agenda clearly. And that's a "decent read?" CBS News hates Reagan? No duh.

But as for Reagan, they don't mention two things:

1) Reagan was promised three for one spending cuts to tax increases by Tip O'Neill. Top lied, no surprise. But the left keep mentioning he raised taxes without mentioning that the Democrats reneged. It's one of the points being used today as Obama's tried a similar tact promising unsubstantiated tax cuts. Reagan still shouldn't have raised taxes, but at least tell the story honestly.

2) Revenues doubled under Reagan. Knowing that fact while reading the CBS propaganda network report sorta changes things a lot.
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

UK Skins Fan wrote:And we've only just finished paying you guys for the war.

About that, we have a few more IOUs we found from you guys in the sofa. We'll send those over shortly for payment...
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

Irn-Bru wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:I do see the conflict that voting for a politician, any politician, is putting someone who wants power in office. Which means you're voting for someone who works against you. I'm not not clear how not voting solves that.

I'm not saying that staying home on election day solves the problem. (I think it's a pretty good first step, though, among others.)


In fact it seems that you're really in the end casting a vote for the politician who wants the most power and is willing to buy votes with lies and other people's money to get it.

I disagree. A little less than half of qualified voters stay home on election day. If what you are saying were true, then they are all "casting a vote for the politician who wants the most power and is willing, etc." in (for example) a presidential election. I don't think that's true at all. In the first place, if the statistics hold up then there'd be a near 50-50 split among them even if they did vote; but suddenly if they don't make that vote they are all in effect voting for one guy?

And how can you establish any correlation between voting for a guy and avoiding the politician who is lying or willing to do evil things to win votes? Before the 2000 election, what would you have thought of someone who said that Al Gore was likely to be a smaller government candidate than GWB? Well, there's a good chance they would have been right, though there was little if any way to know it at the time.

And if it's that difficult to figure out the effects of a vote for someone, I don't see how you can talk about what a non-vote means with any predictive power whatsoever.

No, I think it's just that 40% (or so) are simply not participating in the game, whatever their reasons. Best not to blame the victims. My 2 cents


What I am saying is that if people who don't want anything much from government don't vote, the ones who do are the ones who will be voting and for the politians who promise them the most, and you can bet they won't be paying for it out of their pocket.

What I'm asking is where you think not voting will lead us exactly. We don't vote, then what do you think will happen that you consider a desirable outcome?
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Post by Irn-Bru »

What I am saying is that if people who don't want anything much from government don't vote, the ones who do are the ones who will be voting and for the politians who promise them the most, and you can bet they won't be paying for it out of their pocket.

That's not really how it works, though. As I point out above, your assessment presumes that (a) there's a big government candidate and a bigger government candidate, (b) that we can know which is which ahead of time, and (c) that votes for one over the other matter. I reject all three of those ideas.


What I'm asking is where you think not voting will lead us exactly. We don't vote, then what do you think will happen that you consider a desirable outcome?

For one, it reclaims the dignity and moral high ground that's lost when you assent to the status quo and try to play the game of picking the lesser of two evils. That alone makes it worth doing, IMHO. But aside from the intrinsic worth, I'd say that giving up on the idea that democracy is an effective means for improving society is part of the foundation of doing things that will in fact make the world a better place.
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

Irn-Bru wrote:
What I am saying is that if people who don't want anything much from government don't vote, the ones who do are the ones who will be voting and for the politians who promise them the most, and you can bet they won't be paying for it out of their pocket.

That's not really how it works, though. As I point out above, your assessment presumes that (a) there's a big government candidate and a bigger government candidate, (b) that we can know which is which ahead of time, and (c) that votes for one over the other matter. I reject all three of those ideas.


Obviously I agree to a large extent. W being the perfect example. A guy who ran on his business background claiming to be a Texas Conservative who advanced socialism in ways that would have given Gore a wet dream. If I re-cast my vote for 2000, it'd be for Al Gore instead of Harry Browne. Not because what Al Gore would wanted would have been better then what Bush wanted, but because he'd have never gotten it. Also, Bush wouldn't have destroyed the Republican Party and we wouldn't have Obamacare. And Obamacare is a whole level of government evil above what either party has done since Social Security and Medicare. Programs that make every American dependent on government.

BTW, speaking of the point on Browne, I'm confused why you keep going to two candidates when you know from years of our discussions I haven't voted for either. Obama has me on the verge of voting for a Republican , though if they nominate someone like Romney or Palin I'm going to go third party again.

And speaking of third party, that seems to be the giant blind spot in your theory, your argument clearly supports that if you want more then two, vote for a third, any third. As long as there are two and only two parties, they will go the strategy of tear each other down, but don't do anything different. Third plus players in the process prevent a party from winning on just the rubble of the other party.

Irn-Bru wrote:
What I'm asking is where you think not voting will lead us exactly. We don't vote, then what do you think will happen that you consider a desirable outcome?

For one, it reclaims the dignity and moral high ground that's lost when you assent to the status quo and try to play the game of picking the lesser of two evils. That alone makes it worth doing, IMHO. But aside from the intrinsic worth, I'd say that giving up on the idea that democracy is an effective means for improving society is part of the foundation of doing things that will in fact make the world a better place.


Maybe I'm not asking the question right. How would you have the process work? If not Democracy, then what? I despise Democracy, but I don't have a better answer. I think our #1 problem is the two party system, so I'm voting to change that by voting third party. Though again Obamacare is a whole different level of evil, I am close to voting to end that. Though I don't see anything that would keep me voting for Republicans after that.
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Post by Cappster »

KazooSkinsFan wrote:
Cappster wrote:And its good you mention Reaganomics. here is a decent read:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... 03544.html

Sure, if going straight to the hard left for a "decent read" isn't enough, the tone of the article shows their agenda clearly. And that's a "decent read?" CBS News hates Reagan? No duh.

But as for Reagan, they don't mention two things:

1) Reagan was promised three for one spending cuts to tax increases by Tip O'Neill. Top lied, no surprise. But the left keep mentioning he raised taxes without mentioning that the Democrats reneged. It's one of the points being used today as Obama's tried a similar tact promising unsubstantiated tax cuts. Reagan still shouldn't have raised taxes, but at least tell the story honestly.

2) Revenues doubled under Reagan. Knowing that fact while reading the CBS propaganda network report sorta changes things a lot.


Reagan still left the US in more debt than when he entered office. I just don't get this magical aura that surrounds him like he was some great deity that ran the country flawlessly.
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Post by Cappster »

KazooSkinsFan wrote:
Why should I defend Bush? You somehow thought I supported his policies? Based on what? I said raising taxes in a bad economy is moronic and all history and the field of economics shows that. Bush was a mixed bag, he raised taxes as well (e.g., Social Security) and greatly added to tax complexity, which has huge hidden costs of compliance as well as disincentives to efficiency. He also spent like a drunken sailor. More then one thing was going on in the economy so your strategy of saying he cut taxes so that's the only factor you're considering in jobs in his administration is way too simplistic.

As for Obama, sure, he actually thinks that private jets aren't legitimate corporate writeoffs for international companies. So, why isn't he flying commercial? He's a servent of the people, isn't he? Why do the people who create our economy not qualify for even a writeoff and he actually charges the people directly for his flying. Hypocrisy, your name is Obama.


Everything is too complex and that is why everything needs to be simplified. I support a flat tax rate for everyone without the ability to hide money here or there.

As for Obama, its kind of hard to fly commercial being the POTUS. Your logic here is more of an "I don't like Obama" statement then having any real true meaning behind it.
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Post by DarthMonk »

KazooSkinsFan wrote:Revenues doubled under Reagan.


This is interesting. Revenue numbers are in billions of dollars.

Ike:

1952 100.25
1953 104.78
1954 108.25
1955 106.40
1956 119.65
1957 129.15
1958 130.40
1959 133.06
1960 153.10

8 years sees an increase in revenue of about 53%.


Kennedy/Johnson:

1960 153.10
1961 158.74
1962 161.30
1963 172.31
1964 184.07
1965 193.57
1966 215.33
1967 240.03
1968 253.37

8 years sees an increase in revenue of about 65%.


Nixon/Ford:

1968 253.37
1969 299.88
1970 321.05
1971 325.77
1972 365.78
1973 409.62
1974 459.31
1975 493.65
1976 547.15

8 years sees an increase in revenue of about 116%.


Carter:

1976 547.15
1977 630.73
1978 701.58
1979 793.07
1980 885.62

4 years sees an increase in revenue of about 62% which is 124% over 8 years.

1980 885.62
1981 1015.71
1982 1076.72
1983 1104.02
1984 1221.50
1985 1347.49
1986 1439.30
1987 1581.88
1988 1676.15


8 years sees an increase in revenue of about 89%.


Revenues always increase and roughly double every 8 years. By this metric Reagan was better than Ike & Kennedy/Johnson but worse than Nixon/Ford & Carter.

Also, as noted earlier, Reagan RAISED taxes repeatedly after the initial cut which had virtually no effect on the rate of revenue increase.

BTW, increases in revenue for Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama are:

Bush I: 25% in 4 years, historically weak

Clinton: 75% in 8 years, a bit below Reagan but got to budget surplus along the way

Bush II: 28% over 8 years, historically anemic, half as good as the otherwise worst of Ike, & with a 9% DROP in the final year as we headed into the worst recession since the great one

Obama: Drop continued and accelerated to 20% in first year but as policy took hold resumed rise of 37% over 2 years projecting to a whopping 147% over 8 years

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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

DarthMonk wrote:Revenues always increase and roughly double every 8 years. By this metric Reagan was better than Ike & Kennedy/Johnson but worse than Nixon/Ford & Carter.

You realize you just supported my point. The deficits are blamed on tax cuts, but you just supported that he's right in line in revenue growth despite the cuts. Thanks for the assist on that.
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Post by Irn-Bru »

KazooSkinsFan wrote:And speaking of third party, that seems to be the giant blind spot in your theory, your argument clearly supports that if you want more then two, vote for a third, any third.

Do you think there's any causality there? (I.e., that by voting for a 3rd party it makes a 3rd party more likely to succeed in the long run?) I don't. At best, IMHO, it's an effort that will bear negligible results. At worst—and what I think is far more likely—it's a fool's errand.

Look at it this way: about one or two million people currently vote for the third party candidate, either the environmentalist or the conservative libertarian. But some eighty million or so don't vote at all, and political apathy much more than third party voting is a thorn in the side of people who earnestly believe in government solving social problems.

It's a bit like George Carlin's line on the military. What if everyone just decided not to show up? What if they decided they weren't going to participate anymore? (And still better: what if we not only failed to show up but were doing other, more important things instead?) I find that idea much more powerful than the prospects of working through our present system to effect change. And I think in history far more positive change was effected through the withdrawl of consent than by working through the system.


Maybe I'm not asking the question right. How would you have the process work? If not Democracy, then what? I despise Democracy, but I don't have a better answer.

I'm a libertarian in the tradition of the Austrian school of economics.

But even if we take ideals off the table, I don't see democracy as a second best. I can think of two or three forms of government that seem more likely to foster economic growth, social stability, and the protection of individuals than democracy.
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

Irn-Bru wrote:
KazooSkinsFan wrote:And speaking of third party, that seems to be the giant blind spot in your theory, your argument clearly supports that if you want more then two, vote for a third, any third.

Do you think there's any causality there? (I.e., that by voting for a 3rd party it makes a 3rd party more likely to succeed in the long run?) I don't. At best, IMHO, it's an effort that will bear negligible results. At worst—and what I think is far more likely—it's a fool's errand.


Most people hate both parties but don't think a third party is viable. It's a self fulfilling prophesy. I agree that the Republican and Democrats are usually tweedle dum and tweedle dee, which is why I stopped voting for them last having voted for HW in 1988. If people thought they were viable, then I think people would look at all the third parties more. Would that solve all our problems? No, but as long as there are two and only two parties, the dynamic is they do nothing different and they try to destroy the other. Since there are two, you destroy the other you're the only one standing.

I'm confused by your fools errand comment. You say it accomplishes nothing, more more likely it's a fools errand, what are you referring to that is worse then "negligible results?"

I'm a libertarian in the tradition of the Austrian school of economics.


I don't see how not voting removes the State. In fact, you are leaving the voting then to people who want to maximize the State, which is the point I keep making. To make a serious change in our broken process is going to take a new Constitutional Convention, not sitting at home letting people who want to control you and your wallet be the ones to control the government guns that force you to comply. I own three corporations and the Federal and State governments constantly itch slap me. They could care less if I succeed or provide a job. They think of a new fee they send me a bill. They screw up they put it on me to figure it out and fix it. You are leaving voting to people who want more of that.

Irn-Bru wrote:But even if we take ideals off the table, I don't see democracy as a second best. I can think of two or three forms of government that seem more likely to foster economic growth, social stability, and the protection of individuals than democracy.


My use of Democracy was the wrong word. I was referring to that somehow government has to be answerable to the people. But the only way it can work for the people is to pit it against itself. Government is inherently corrupt. That is why direct election of Senators was catastrophic for liberty. That is what unchecked the Federal Government. The Founders also screwed up when they didn't create any check and balance for the courts. They should have realized one day that would lead to them becoming the dictators that they are.
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Post by DarthMonk »

KazooSkinsFan wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:Revenues always increase and roughly double every 8 years. By this metric Reagan was better than Ike & Kennedy/Johnson but worse than Nixon/Ford & Carter.

You realize you just supported my point. The deficits are blamed on tax cuts, but you just supported that he's right in line in revenue growth despite the cuts. Thanks for the assist on that.


Not really. The rate of revenue increase (per 8 years) slowed considerably (116%. 124%, 89%) while deficits ballooned. Deficits contiinued to increase until the Clinton drops and ultimate surpluses only to balloon again, after another big tax cut btw. These are all simple FACTS.

This post is not a vote for a dem nor a repub. It's just about clear numbers. Your statement that revenues doubled under Reagan is close to true as 89% is pretty close to 100%. I don't think you ever implied cause and effect with the tax cut and revenues but for anyone who does the facts speak. Also, we need to acknowledge all the tax hikes following the one well publicized cut.

So supported your point ...

Well, if your point was the net tax cut by Reagan didn't slow the growth of revenue harshly then I gave you some support though 124 to 116 to 89 is a pretty signigficant drop in how fast revenue was growing. So clearly, revenue growth did slow. Naturally. He cut taxes! The deficit also ballooned. Naturally, he cut taxes and increased spending!

Cutting taxes has benefits. A jump in revenue (not that you said it was) is not one of the benefits. Neither is a smaller deficit.

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Post by The Hogster »

Republicans and Democrats are both full of it. The problem with Republicans is that they are more full of it. Republicans have successfully made "taxes" a bad word without explaining where the bulk of the tax revenue comes from. You have poor & middle class people (whose lives aren't effected whether Bush, Clinton, or Obama are in office) crying over taxes they don't even pay.

At least Democrats try to explain this crap to people. Republicans just repeat catch phrases to capture the attention of the slow thinkers. It works. Sadly, the Republican Party would dominate in size and electability if they actually did the s..t they yap about. Just think, how many of us would argue about a country in which you paid little income tax, no capital gains tax, and didn't have to look at a pay check that deducts the biggest chunk for Social Security etc. It's a sham.
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Post by Irn-Bru »

KazooSkinsFan wrote:Most people hate both parties but don't think a third party is viable. It's a self fulfilling prophesy.

And most people think the system is fundamentally broken but still vote. That's also a self fulfilling prophecy.

I'm confused by your fools errand comment. You say it accomplishes nothing, more more likely it's a fools errand, what are you referring to that is worse then "negligible results?"

I'm referring to the formal result that we both want: fundamental change. I think third party voting will, at its best, result in some negligible shift that — in terms of how beneficial its effects are — is thin gruel.

At worst, it will keep lots of well-intentioned people involved in and consenting to a political system that has zero chance of serving their interests, destroying their liberty in the meantime.

Either way I think our political system is unsustainable; the difference is to what extent it can bring down others with it when it fails.


I don't see how not voting removes the State.

This is a slight misformulation of my argument. Ultimately, withdrawing consent is what removes the state, not nonvoting. Even a good conservative who reveres Jefferson can agree with that principle. However, what I've been arguing here is that nonvoting is a key/effective component of withdrawing consent.

In fact, you are leaving the voting then to people who want to maximize the State, which is the point I keep making.

Here's my problem with this line. It could work equally well against nonvoting Soviet citizens to convince them that voting was an effective means of improving their circumstances. (If I recall correctly, Soviet politicians actually enjoyed a lower reelection rate than today's US congressmen.)

I'd guess that you would object to this idea. "The Soviet system was a sham," you might say. So you'd view the resignation of nonvoting Soviet citizens as legitimate, because what change could they possibly hope to effect by voting? But as I've been pointing out all along, if one is convinced (as I am) that reform-from-within politics will not work in the United States today, then there's no more compelling reason to vote defensively for us than there was for a Soviet citizen. Sure, we're not living in Soviet Russia with all of its trappings, but that's not necessarily a reason to think our political regime is any less set in its own ways.

So IMO, you'll either need to show how voting for the lesser of two (or three or four) evils is an effective means for securing liberty, or you're guilty of begging the question on this point you keep bringing up. You can't keep saying "but you should at least try to protect yourself," because in my view voting has nothing to do with actually protecting myself.

Nonvoting isn't a direct means of protecting myself, but it is an indirect means of doing so, and that's better than nothing — and certainly better than contributing to the problem via voting.


To make a serious change in our broken process is going to take a new Constitutional Convention

As far as I know, no third party candidate endorses an idea like that. So even if I grant that actual change can be secured through a convention, if no candidate will fight for one, what is the point of voting again?

Perhaps you will say that voting for a third party candidate now sets the stage for a future in which it will be politically feasible to hold a convention and effect change. Well, this is where the third-party-voting plan starts to sound like a fool's errand to me. When was the last time that voting for someone who didn't espouse what was necessary to protect liberty led in the long term to more liberty?
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

Irn-Bru wrote:I think third party voting will, at its best, result in some negligible shift that — in terms of how beneficial its effects are — is thin gruel.

At worst, it will keep lots of well-intentioned people involved in and consenting to a political system that has zero chance of serving their interests, destroying their liberty in the meantime


The 2 million who vote third party send a far stronger and clearer message then the 80 million who don't vote. We are sending a clear message wee are not happy with how our system is running. We bother to vote, yet vote for candidates who won't win. The 80 million or whatever who don't vote send a clear message too, they can't be bothered.

That voting third party is consenting to our political system is nonsense, we're unhappy with the system. And that's the message heard. I don't hear any third party voter or report on third party voters saying what you're implying that gee, we voted and we're happy now, we consent to this nonsense. I hear unhappiness in third party voters , the two parties are the same and we're sick of it. Ralph Nader and I both say that, not many people could disagree on more issues then Ralph Nader and I do. But the message is the same.

And I don't hear anyone saying your contention about non-voters either that you're withholding consent. I hear you're too lazy to vote. I don't think you are Irn-Bru, I'm just saying that's the message that's being heard. Voting is work, screw it.
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Post by chiefhog44 »

What a great time to RE-post this. PLEASE watch this. It explains how our system works. The more people understand this, the faster we can revamp it. Listening to some of the explanations on how our debt works is like banging my head against a wall.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EewGMBOB4Gg
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Post by Irn-Bru »

And I don't hear anyone saying your contention about non-voters either that you're withholding consent. I hear you're too lazy to vote. I don't think you are Irn-Bru, I'm just saying that's the message that's being heard. Voting is work, screw it.

Voting really isn't work at all. It's so easy to do that a lot of political commentators spend plenty of time hand wringing about how all the stupid people get to vote and it dilutes the results. So they propose things like a literacy test at the door, or a test to identify his/her representatives before voting for new ones, etc.

I really think that many (if not most) of the 80 million who don't vote just have better things to do with their day. Whether or not part of that consideration includes a rejection of the political system — as it does at least for me — in most cases I don't think you can legitimately label nonvoting as "lazy." Saying it's "lazy" suggests that the person thinks voting is worthwhile or that they otherwise have some obligation to do it, and can't be bothered to make the effort. But if a guy decides to work, enjoy his family, and call his dad instead of voting, that's not "lazy."

Regardless, though, we somehow got on to the issue of subjective perceptions of the respective messages voting/nonvoting send. Not only is that issue irrelevant to the argument at hand, but I'm not sure what we're supposed to accomplish by debating what our own perceptions of voting/nonvoting are.
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

Irn-Bru wrote:
And I don't hear anyone saying your contention about non-voters either that you're withholding consent. I hear you're too lazy to vote. I don't think you are Irn-Bru, I'm just saying that's the message that's being heard. Voting is work, screw it.

Voting really isn't work at all. It's so easy to do that a lot of political commentators spend plenty of time hand wringing about how all the stupid people get to vote and it dilutes the results. So they propose things like a literacy test at the door, or a test to identify his/her representatives before voting for new ones, etc.

I really think that many (if not most) of the 80 million who don't vote just have better things to do with their day. Whether or not part of that consideration includes a rejection of the political system — as it does at least for me — in most cases I don't think you can legitimately label nonvoting as "lazy." Saying it's "lazy" suggests that the person thinks voting is worthwhile or that they otherwise have some obligation to do it, and can't be bothered to make the effort. But if a guy decides to work, enjoy his family, and call his dad instead of voting, that's not "lazy."

Regardless, though, we somehow got on to the issue of subjective perceptions of the respective messages voting/nonvoting send. Not only is that issue irrelevant to the argument at hand, but I'm not sure what we're supposed to accomplish by debating what our own perceptions of voting/nonvoting are.


Well, one thing is that neither my strategy of voting third party nor your strategy of not voting is working. Debt, 14 trillion and counting...
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Post by Irn-Bru »

Well, one thing is that neither my strategy of voting third party nor your strategy of not voting is working. Debt, 14 trillion and counting...


Ah, but we are closer to a default, which is a good thing, and I'll go ahead and arbitrarily posit that nonvoting had more to do with that than third-party voting . . . ;)
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

Irn-Bru wrote:
Well, one thing is that neither my strategy of voting third party nor your strategy of not voting is working. Debt, 14 trillion and counting...


Ah, but we are closer to a default, which is a good thing, and I'll go ahead and arbitrarily posit that nonvoting had more to do with that than third-party voting . . . ;)


You made me laugh...
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Post by welch »

A default would have been bad, and the goof-ball prancing about boating that we ought to default, just to see what happens, leaves world investors to worry if the US is still the rock on which the world rests. Not good at all.

The "deal" itself was a blunder. You never cut spending during a depression, which is is. The country needs money in poeople's hands, or else companies will not invest, but equipment, and hire staff. I certainly cannot get my boss to add staff unless we have projects coming in. With businesses selling down their stocks, trimming, looking to "lean" out their staff, I don't see much coming up soon.

One bit of interest is that some small banks -- I'm in the computers / banking business -- find their corporate customers doing more and more overseas business. That's good, maybe. At least better than a business turning in every-shrinking circles to find a shrinking local market.
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

welch wrote:A default would have been bad, and the goof-ball prancing about boating that we ought to default, just to see what happens, leaves world investors to worry if the US is still the rock on which the world rests. Not good at all.

Why would we have ever defaulted? Interest payments are under $30 billion a month and tax revenue is $200 billion.


welch wrote:The "deal" itself was a blunder. You never cut spending during a depression, which is is

Actually you never raise taxes. Government spending destroys economic value, it doesn't create it. So government destroying less value is actually good. The problem with your argument is that the money doesn't appear from nowhere, it comes from the economy.

As for depression, I admit trying to keep multiple businesses going in this mess is certainly depressing me. I bought another design business in May which I merged with my design business. It was struggling. I paid a small amount upfront, $20K, mostly they get a share of their customer's revenue for the next 5 years. Basically it's cost out eliminating their rent, utilities, duplicate positions (i.e., layoffs), ... It's why corporations are making profit. No top line growth, bottom line cuts. But we can only do that so long, eventually the economy's going to have to start growing again. I also bought a restaurant last year at a bargain price. Both businesses are profitable, but for the amount of work I do I should be making a lot more.
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Post by welch »

No, you don't raise taxes, of course, but government spending does not take money away from private investment. The government borrows to spend, and until the government has to pay higher interest rates -- and they are now almost zero -- there is no threat to private investment.

Key point: if customers don;t have money to buy anything, then business can't invest and expand. It's suicide to invest when there is no demand...unless you, luckily, have a pile of hard cash sitting around and use it to buy us faltering businesses dirt cheap. Even then, you need someone to buy something.

The government is the investor of last resort.

It was crazy to try to balance the budget in 1937, even though FDR had campaigned on a balanced budget in '32. That was just antique thinking.

Same in 2011. By cutting government spending, we cut jobs, thereby cutting buying power and also convincing people that it's safer to keep their money in a sack than to buy something over time.

We need double the government spending in 2009 /2010, just as we needed much more than New Deal spending to climb out if the previous Depression. That was called WW2.

There are also faults structured into the American political economy...primarily the idea that the US can somehow be the imported of last resort for all manufacturing countries. We can't have an economy based entirely on provided services...like taking in each other's washing.
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Post by KazooSkinsFan »

welch wrote:No, you don't raise taxes, of course, but government spending does not take money away from private investment. The government borrows to spend, and until the government has to pay higher interest rates -- and they are now almost zero -- there is no threat to private investment.

Key point: if customers don;t have money to buy anything, then business can't invest and expand. It's suicide to invest when there is no demand...unless you, luckily, have a pile of hard cash sitting around and use it to buy us faltering businesses dirt cheap. Even then, you need someone to buy something.

The government is the investor of last resort.

It was crazy to try to balance the budget in 1937, even though FDR had campaigned on a balanced budget in '32. That was just antique thinking.

Same in 2011. By cutting government spending, we cut jobs, thereby cutting buying power and also convincing people that it's safer to keep their money in a sack than to buy something over time.

We need double the government spending in 2009 /2010, just as we needed much more than New Deal spending to climb out if the previous Depression. That was called WW2.

There are also faults structured into the American political economy...primarily the idea that the US can somehow be the imported of last resort for all manufacturing countries. We can't have an economy based entirely on provided services...like taking in each other's washing.


There are two big problems with your argument:

1) The money government spends doesn't appear out of thin air, it comes out of the economy. And the government doesn't produce anything. It's like claiming that eating pure sugar before a workout will give you more energy. Yeah, for a few minutes, then it's a drain on energy that has to be overcome.

2) Recessions are caused by consumers not spending and government spending doesn't change that.

Since government spends without creating value, all government spending does in recessions is increase deficits and the drain on the economy and inflict more damage that has to be overcome later. Which doesn't happen because politicians are cowards who just play kick the can.
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Post by welch »

Government spending is not cut from the economy, unless the government borrows so heavily that it crowds the private sector from being able to borrow.

That's not happening.

Agreed, recessions and depressions (I call this a depression) are caused when consumers cannot buy as much as the economy can produce. When the government spends, the money goes into the economy. People consume things.

In the '30s, people were too frightened of "the deficit" to accept enough spending to push the economy forward. When FDR re-armed, the US built big carriers and battleships and tanks and such, and all of it was politically acceptable. We were at war.
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