Determing if McNabb Sucks Somewhat Scientifically

[DarthMonk]

I don't have forever but I charted the 24 pass plays called in the 1st half against the Bears. At the bottom is a brief summary. You decide.

McNabb entered the game 3rd in the NFC in passing yards.

1 Protection breaking down over right guard. While getting hit by 2 guys DM makes strong accurate throw on hook to Armstrong for 20 yards.

2 On 3rd and 3 McNabb misses Moss on outside. Looked like Moss was held/interfered with.

3 Under duress DM throws low on dump off to Torain.

4 With good pro DM throws perfect strike and sure TD to Armstrong who drops it.

5 With Peppers in face DM throws perfect pass to ey for 1st down but he drops it.

6 With good pro DM hits Sleepy Davis up middle for 18 yards. A little low but a decent pass over the backers and under the safeties.

7 Under jail-break pressure DM hits ey in stride leaking out of backfield for 5 yards.

8 With good pro DM hits Sellers on an out in stride for a 15 yard gain.

9 Under jail-break pressure batted-ball becomes pick-6.

10 On waggle play DM pulls it down and runs for 8 yards.

11 With LG getting shoved back into his face DM throws it a little behind Moss who makes the catch for a gain of 13.

12 Under heavy pressure from Peppers DM misses Seller low in left flat.

13 Under pressure from Peppers hits ey in stride for 9 yards.

14 On waggle play throws strike to ey for 5 yards and a 1st down.

15 With good pro DM throws 24-yard perfect strike to Moss for TD.

16 With good pro DM throws 20-yard strike over backers in front of safety to Armstrong.

17 Under blitz pressure DM makes good hot-read throw to Moss who falls down (tripped) and misses catch.

18 Under pressure DM throws behind Sellers in right flat though it hits him in the hands.

19 With good pro DM hits ey in stride on short out.

20 Under pressure DM airs it out over everyone’s head.

21 Attempted screen to ey is batted down as DM is hammered to turf.

22 Out to Galloway is batted at line under heavy jail-break pressure.

23 DM professionally grounds ball then ducks under head-hunter under jail-break duress.

24 Under heavy pressure up middle DM hits ey in stride on 9-yard out.

I counted 24 pass plays called. He ran on one. On the 23 attempts I counted:

Good pro 8 times where DM was 6 for 8 with 2 drops – one drop costing a TD and the other a 1st down.

Strong pressure 10 times where DM was 4 for 10 with a drop, a throw-away, a batted ball, and Moss falling down (tripped).

5 jail breaks where DM 1 for 5 with 2 batted balls, and a professional grounding.

McNabb was 11-23 for 145 yards with a dropped TD, 2 other drops, a falling-down Moss on a good throw, a batted-ball pick-6, and 2 other jail-break batted balls. He was either under heavy pressure or an out-and-out jail break on 15 of the 23 attempts.

Does this QB suck?

DarthMonk

[Wahoo McDaniels]

DarthMonk asks "Does this QB suck?"

Short answer: Yes. Long Answer: Hell Yes.

Anybody who goes to these lengths to dispute the facts is considered an apologist. I will give you a case in point: Play #9 of your pitch count which you call a "jail break"... in reality, the play worked exactly as it was supposed to, except for Donny's execution. Anybody who knows anything about football knows the reason you run a screen is to exploit a defense's overagressiveness. You let them overrun a play and you dump it in behind them. Problem is McNabb is incapable of doing anything with touch and this play was a prime example. He makes this throw and the Skins score a 70 yd TD, no question about it. Instead he duffs a pass and its 6 pts the other way.

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

[1niksder]

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

He didn't make excuses he provided data and wanted a opinion...

Yours doesn't count because it's bias...

McNabb would be in the bottom 5 in passing yards if there were only 12 teams in the league, but it's 32 and he's top 10. Number seven in fact, with non-rookies like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel below him. There were some non-losers like Matt Schaub, Tom Brady and Brett Favre also lower than him.

Mcnabb is ranked 27th in 1st down % but that would be bottom 6. In every major category he is above bottom 5.

That not Somewhat Scientific that's facts according to these folks

DarthMonk asks "Does this QB suck? I'd have say he does but only about 30% of the time

[cleg]

I just come back to this question. Would the Washington Redskins be 4-3 without McNabb on this team?

We saw the Eagles do this for years, play like crap then pull out a win. I wish he did not throw the ball in the dirt so much because if he was accurate on his short passes he would be Tom Brady good.

[Countertrey]

The opinion of a hater is just that... the opinion of a hater. Pass the salt...

[orangenorth]

Donovan is like a decent golfer who has a streaky putter. He'll manage his game well enough to shoot a pretty good score, but when the putts start dropping he goes low.

I warned of Donovan pre-season of not always painting the prettiest picture, but also realized that the W's would be there. Once comfortable in this system, the putter ought to start heating up. He's due for a couple of lights-out games.

[chiefhog44]

His ability to get rid of the ball and avoid contact alone makes him a good player. Add in that he's getting win's, and it makes him even better.

Add in the fact that he will groom our next QB, and I am a strong supporter

[PulpExposure]

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

He didn't make excuses he provided data and wanted a opinion...

Yours doesn't count because it's bias...

Wahoo's hatred of DMac has entered RayNAustin v. Campbell territory. Congrats, Wahoo, you've entered the one trick pony zone.

[RayNAustin]

McNabb is a top 10 QB in the NFL ... and has demonstrated that for a decade ... several Pro Bowls, 5 NFC Championship appearances in 11 years, 1 Super Bowl appearance.

This year with the Redskins, he's been inconsistent, streaky, inaccurate on some easy throws while learning a new offensive system and new teammates ... along with an inconsistent line .. sometimes good, sometimes not so good, and until recently, not even a HINT of a running game. Some of that is on McNabb, and some of it is on his support players, and some of it has to fall to the OC. Everyone has to learn about each other ... and McNabb's supporting cast also are learning a new system ... including an online with an entirely new blocking scheme.

Here is one measure that I believe is an important indicator of how well a QB is doing his job .... TD passes between the 50 and opponent's 20 yard line. Right now, after 7 games .. McNabb has 5 TDs in that area of the field. Contrast that with our previous QB who racked up a grand total of ONE as the full time starter combined for 2007, 2008, 2009 .... ONE TD PASS in three years between the 50 and 20. In 2006, Campbell threw 3, and the next 3 years he threw 1 ... followed by 1 this year with the Raiders. So that makes 5 total for his CAREER thus far ... while McNabb has 5 in just 7 games (should be at least 7 as I recall 2 dropped TDs by Armstrong himself, and there might be one or two more that I'm not remembering) ... all while learning a new offense and new teammates, and virtually no running game to rely on.

Now this isn't a hate Campbell post ... everybody knows what I think about him. This is a comparison in order to illustrate the important key differences here ... and TD passes are big time important ... especially considering that McNabb overall hasn't played up to his potential thus far, and has had some pretty mediocre outings.

The one thing you get with McNabb is the mental edge ... he's very intelligent when it comes to strategy and handling defenses ... the mistakes he's been making have been largely physical mistakes, most likely due to having to think too much rather than just play, with some of it due to breakdowns in protection, and some of it due to players not being where they are supposed to be or where McNabb thinks they are going.

As time moves forward, and McNabb and his support cast become more comfortable with the new offense, I expect we'll see much better production ... and there are signs of that already, as the run blocking seems to have improved over the past couple of games.

I usually don't like to talk what ifs ... but 2 of the 3 losses were by 3 points each against two high scoring offenses, Texans and Colts, which could have gone the other way with a little more defense ... making the Redskins 6-1 ... the best record in the NFL ... all while not seeing the best McNabb has to offer.

I find it amusing when I recall how so many insisted that it takes two or three years for a QB to learn a new offense when Campbell was the QB, while throwing McNabb under the bus before mid season of year 1.

And I agree with the other poster that McNabb is past due for a breakout game, and as the run game continues to improve, and the new system becomes more 2nd nature for everyone ... I think we're going to have a solid 2nd half of the season.

This week's game could be the critical turning point in determining the direction of the season .... the Skins need a complete effort on both sides of the ball (something we haven't seen so far) ... a solid win in Detroit puts the team at 5-3 going into the buy week.

At the beginning of the year, I said then that if the Redskins could avoid a slow start, and reach mid-season above 500, they'd be in great shape to make a run at the playoffs, with a chance to finish with double digit wins and possibly winning the division, dependent upon what we do against the NYG.

The Cowboys are TOAST ... and the QB carrousel in Philly I think is hurting, not helping them. So I think this division is up for grabs, and if the Redskins can tweak the defense up a notch, and get the offense running on all cylinders, we only need to handle the Giants.

It all starts with a win in Detroit. If we lose to the Lions .. that's an indicator that the team has not yet reached the turning point.

I think the Skins are going to turn the corner and win 27-14.

[The Hogster]

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

He didn't make excuses he provided data and wanted a opinion...

Yours doesn't count because it's bias...

Wahoo's hatred of DMac has entered RayNAustin v. Campbell territory. Congrats, Wahoo, you've entered the one trick pony zone.

IHe's on the verge of being ignored by me. I can see the bulging veins of anger through his comments.

Whatever Wahoo. Who else do you hate? Lets hear it.

[Irn-Bru]

Nice breakdown, DarthMonk. Unfortunately McNabb will need to handle the pressure better, but that's one area where physically he's not at 100% (and I can't tell whether that's simply a matter of age or that he's playing hurt).

The dropped TD pass hurt him the most, I think. If Armstrong had hung on to that, the debate about McNabb this week wouldn't have been nearly as intense.

[brad7686]

McNabb is a top 10 QB in the NFL ... and has demonstrated that for a decade ... several Pro Bowls, 5 NFC Championship appearances in 11 years, 1 Super Bowl appearance.

This year with the Redskins, he's been inconsistent, streaky, inaccurate on some easy throws while learning a new offensive system and new teammates ... along with an inconsistent line .. sometimes good, sometimes not so good, and until recently, not even a HINT of a running game. Some of that is on McNabb, and some of it is on his support players, and some of it has to fall to the OC. Everyone has to learn about each other ... and McNabb's supporting cast also are learning a new system ... including an online with an entirely new blocking scheme.

Here is one measure that I believe is an important indicator of how well a QB is doing his job .... TD passes between the 50 and opponent's 20 yard line. Right now, after 7 games .. McNabb has 5 TDs in that area of the field. Contrast that with our previous QB who racked up a grand total of ONE as the full time starter combined for 2007, 2008, 2009 .... ONE TD PASS in three years between the 50 and 20. In 2006, Campbell threw 3, and the next 3 years he threw 1 ... followed by 1 this year with the Raiders. So that makes 5 total for his CAREER thus far ... while McNabb has 5 in just 7 games (should be at least 7 as I recall 2 dropped TDs by Armstrong himself, and there might be one or two more that I'm not remembering) ... all while learning a new offense and new teammates, and virtually no running game to rely on.

Now this isn't a hate Campbell post ... everybody knows what I think about him. This is a comparison in order to illustrate the important key differences here ... and TD passes are big time important ... especially considering that McNabb overall hasn't played up to his potential thus far, and has had some pretty mediocre outings.

The one thing you get with McNabb is the mental edge ... he's very intelligent when it comes to strategy and handling defenses ... the mistakes he's been making have been largely physical mistakes, most likely due to having to think too much rather than just play, with some of it due to breakdowns in protection, and some of it due to players not being where they are supposed to be or where McNabb thinks they are going.

As time moves forward, and McNabb and his support cast become more comfortable with the new offense, I expect we'll see much better production ... and there are signs of that already, as the run blocking seems to have improved over the past couple of games.

I usually don't like to talk what ifs ... but 2 of the 3 losses were by 3 points each against two high scoring offenses, Texans and Colts, which could have gone the other way with a little more defense ... making the Redskins 6-1 ... the best record in the NFL ... all while not seeing the best McNabb has to offer.

I find it amusing when I recall how so many insisted that it takes two or three years for a QB to learn a new offense when Campbell was the QB, while throwing McNabb under the bus before mid season of year 1.

And I agree with the other poster that McNabb is past due for a breakout game, and as the run game continues to improve, and the new system becomes more 2nd nature for everyone ... I think we're going to have a solid 2nd half of the season.

This week's game could be the critical turning point in determining the direction of the season .... the Skins need a complete effort on both sides of the ball (something we haven't seen so far) ... a solid win in Detroit puts the team at 5-3 going into the buy week.

At the beginning of the year, I said then that if the Redskins could avoid a slow start, and reach mid-season above 500, they'd be in great shape to make a run at the playoffs, with a chance to finish with double digit wins and possibly winning the division, dependent upon what we do against the NYG.

The Cowboys are TOAST ... and the QB carrousel in Philly I think is hurting, not helping them. So I think this division is up for grabs, and if the Redskins can tweak the defense up a notch, and get the offense running on all cylinders, we only need to handle the Giants.

It all starts with a win in Detroit. If we lose to the Lions .. that's an indicator that the team has not yet reached the turning point.

I think the Skins are going to turn the corner and win 27-14.

I thought a great qb makes a bad line good? That's what everybody said last year. And that was a much worse O-line.

We still don't have a great line or great receivers overall, so we won't be great. Torain helps.

People can say Moss this and Moss that, and i mean he is good in space and has been helped by McNabb's presence, but as we all know he disappears in the red zone. And ey is often doubled down there. We need a tall receiver and more consistency on the interior, then we could be one of the better offenses.

[Kilmer72]

It was a nice break down Dmonk...I wish you broke down the second half though. See, I was not in favor in bringing in a guy that is old and cost us draft picks that we could use in our offensive line. That is my biggest beef with this trade. Also, our line although it still sucks, is way better than last year. Let us give a little credit to our OC too. He is a huge improvement over Zorn and his vanilla offense. (even with Mr Bingo)

I see McNabb being way better than JC and yes I was one of those guys that said JC needs a couple or few years in the same system. I guess he got his couple and I wasn't to sad to see him go. Funny how he had a nice game last week and I wonder if he will continue to...I wish him luck just not against us.

So, we give McNabb a couple or few years in the same system...I wonder if he will be able to still play at that point. He is old and does have a history of getting hurt. I am not hating on him but I can see why Wahoo is upset. So far, we can all agree, that he is not impressive right? He also has AA who I think is way better than Randle El. Maybe it is McNabb that is making AA look so good who knows?

I think our special teams has a little to do with our wins also.

To me it is more of the same on offense. We can run now a little and we can move down the field but we have trouble scoring more than 17 points.

I have more faith in our offense than I do McNabb. I think if all the pieces were here he would be much better. Right now he doesn't look all that great but things can change.

[The Hogster]

Where was all of this debate after the 459 yards passing versus the Texans?

[Wahoo McDaniels]

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

He didn't make excuses he provided data and wanted a opinion...

Yours doesn't count because it's bias...

Wahoo's hatred of DMac has entered RayNAustin v. Campbell territory. Congrats, Wahoo, you've entered the one trick pony zone.

IHe's on the verge of being ignored by me. I can see the bulging veins of anger through his comments.

Whatever Wahoo. Who else do you hate? Lets hear it.

Who else do I hate on the team? Let's see...only Donny.

And don't ignore me, I don't know what i'd do

I'm just sick of blind homers.

Would the team be 4-3 without him? Let's see...tell me which games McNabb won for us? So far, he's put up the following OFFENSIVE point totals in our wins: 6, 17, 16, and 10. And I don't know how it's possible to give McNabb credit for 6 of these points as they occurred on turnovers inside the opponents 30 and the offensive moved the ball less than 10 yds in these "drives". What part of that say's the guy is lighting up the scoreboard? And I didn't even subtract the 7 points that he gave the Bears from his offensive point production...but I probably should have.

I'll see "your facts" and raise you "my facts".

[cowboykillerzRGiii]

Where was all of this debate after the 459 yards passing versus the Texans?

Exactly! Lol we were all crying about icing the kicker that week

[DarthMonk]

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

He didn't make excuses he provided data and wanted a opinion...

Thank You!

DarthMonk

[1niksder]

I'll see "your facts" and raise you "my facts".

My facts were pulled from NFL.com while you pulled your facts out of your...

You give him credit for the points scored in the wins then state you don't no how he gets credit for some of them.

My facts shows McNabb being credited for 6 touchdowns or 36 points, your facts credits him with 49 points with 6 or seven of 13 of those under question

Let's just say your facts are opinionated which means they're not facts at all. But nice try

You need to get your facts straight.... try a laxitive.

I'm sick of the blind homers too but I'm also sick of the blind haters

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

He didn't make excuses he provided data and wanted a opinion...

Thank You!

Nice piece of work

[Kilmer72]

I don't know if this helps any but some say stats do not matter and others do. Here are some.

http://www.nfl.com/players/donovanmcnab ... =MCN017517

From NFL.com I am assuming that facts and stats are one and the same but we all know that people are getting emotional over nothing here to be realistic.

What matters is we are stuck with him rather you like him or not. (Unless he never signs of course.)

[skinsfan#33]

Hear is the most scientific way of knowing McNabb will have a HUGE game tomorrow.

The guy I am playing in fantasy football had Tony Romo and Matt Ryan. Romo gets his colar bone broken and Ryan is on a bye. So what does the guy I desperately need a win against do? He picks up McNabb and starts him.

I have never finished worse than 4th in FF and right now I'm dead last with 4 straight losses.

McNabb will have a MONSTER game tomorrow and I will lose my 5th straight! That is just how my luck runs!

[Kilmer72]

Where was all of this debate after the 459 yards passing versus the Texans?

Then I was thinking how much our defense sucked and so did many others here. He can get it done. Dnab isn't all that but he can rise to the occasion.

[KazooSkinsFan]

The guy sucks, quit giving him excuses. He's in the bottom 5 of every major category. Only rookies and losers are below him....he's terrible.

He didn't make excuses he provided data and wanted a opinion...

Yours doesn't count because it's bias...

Wahoo's hatred of DMac has entered RayNAustin v. Campbell territory. Congrats, Wahoo, you've entered the one trick pony zone.

That's so well put.

McNabb isn't Peyton Manning, but who is? I mean besides Peyton Manning. But here's a stat: 4-3 against a killer schedule...

[cowboykillerzRGiii]

I can't even imagine what yall were sayin about jc last year... Wow

[The Hogster]

1niksder wrote: I'm sick of the blind homers too but I'm also sick of the blind haters.

Perfectly said.

[Skinsfan55]

You know, I've always liked McNabb, and I expected a lot from him given what the Redskins gave up to get him. Also I was a big JC fan...

McNabb has run the same system since he came out of college so there's an adjustment period. We've seen quarterbacks struggle like this before. Kurt Warner had an adjustment period after he left the Rams, Jay Cutler was a Pro Bowl player struggling to adjust with the Bears, Brad Johnson struggled his first year in Tampa Bay before winning a Super Bowl there...

Quarterbacks who've been successful in a system make habits that are hard to break. It's tough to learn an entirely new system and to feel out brand new teammates.

As long as we keep winning and finish out the season with a decent record I guess I would consider McNabb's season a success. Get him more comfortable with the system, and some better players around him we could be dangerous in 2011. At least I feel like the Redskins are moving in the right direction. I haven't felt that way for a long time.