Closer look at JC ---OFFICIAL STATS from opp 20yd -49yd lne

Champsturf · Post by **Champsturf** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:47 am

1niksder wrote:
Champsturf wrote:Funny mezz...I don't see francal over here. He must not have a counter to this. I too WAS a Campbell fan, but that was prior to this season starting, at the very least. He did NOTHING last year and has done nothing so far this year. Your stats (and I hate stats) are dead on. We're doomed until we can draft a QB and OL all next year.

His stats don't take into consideration:

1. The down and distance on those attempts.
2. The play that was called.
3. The number of passes actually caught (179)
4. The majority of the attempts (159) came while running the WCO (a system that was new to everyone involved) which is a short passing scheme (that based on yards AFTER the catch.

I love stats, I can make them say almost anything if I have enough of them or limted in available data.

Like I said, I hate stats, but I don't think any of the variables you mentioned really matter. I mean really, we're looking for a TD. down and distance? so what? There's a 30 yard window here and Campbell just doesn't get it done.
The play that was called? Audible out if you see something (which Campbell rarely sees correctly)
ok. 179 passes caught and still no TD'S?????
159 attempts in the WCO...so does your stat include what distance the pass traveled before any YAC?
I don't really care. This team need to score touchdowns. Period. Campbell isn't quite sure how to do that.

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:30 am

Champsturf wrote:Like I said, I hate stats, but I don't think any of the variables you mentioned really matter. I mean really, we're looking for a TD.

You're looking a touchdown as soon as they cross the 50?

Champsturf wrote:down and distance? so what? There's a 30 yard window here and Campbell just doesn't get it done.

On 3 and two at the 45 you don't take a shot, you throw a pass to move the chains, that's what.

Champsturf wrote:The play that was called? Audible out if you see something (which Campbell rarely sees correctly)

yeah and he'll have a seat on the bench beside Sonny

Champsturf wrote:ok. 179 passes caught and still no TD'S?????

Where on the field was the pass caught, what route was run, how many yards were needed to keep a drive going.

Champsturf wrote:159 attempts in the WCO...so does your stat include what distance the pass traveled before any YAC?

Not my stats just information that was not provided upfront, but you don't care about stats anyway.

Champsturf wrote:I don't really care. This team need to score touchdowns. Period. Campbell isn't quite sure how to do that.

Here's a stat that you should care about than...
Same time frame, but in the redzone the shortest and most defended part of the field...

Jason had 119 attempts - 61 caught . That's more than a 50% completions percentage.

Out of those 61 catches 23 went for touchdowns. That's just under 20% of his passes going for TDs and almost 40% of the completions are touchdowns.

That's scoring touchdowns and getting it done in the redzone, Campbell gets it done when he is allowed to, Exclamation point.

Deadskins · Post by **Deadskins** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:23 am

1niksder wrote:Here's a stat that you should care about than...
Same time frame, but in the redzone the shortest and most defended part of the field...

Jason had 119 attempts - 61 caught . That's more than a 50% completions percentage

A 50% completion percentage is not very good.

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:21 am

Nik, were talking 20-49ydline not red zone. This is absolutely critical part of Field...and JC's impotency from this range IS THE DIRECT reason we avg 18 points a Game with him at the helm.which is around 25th in the NFL

I did Factor his whopping 52 percent completion! His QB rating is like 65-70 from this range
Also way Bottom quartile

How can u defend a QB that has dropped back 304 times from 21 yards to no worse than 49 yards out ....And THROWN ONE TOUCHDOWN!!

Maybe your over looking this tibit too--so let me remind you
HES THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE!From this CRITICAL range
He's the ONLY QB in the NFL that hasnt scored from this range from 08-09!

Name a QB! Ill compare JC to him from this range..it hurts to look at!
That's how bad it is..
Here's one to Munch on
Flacco AS A ROOKIE! And the first two games this year
Has 195 attempts to JC's 170
JC has (0) td 4int to Flaccos 7 and 3....that's 49 points!!! Can anyone guess what 49 points could have done for us last year?
Flacco much younger and greener 18 games195 attempts 7tds
Jc almost 3 years worth 304 attempts ONETD!
And this is just one comparison..I can whip out any Qb and embarass JC from this range

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:36 am

And to the arguement I Didn't factor the certain game situations or down or distance etc
I DID! You know how
I compared him to his peers!!!
APPLES TO APPLES comparison
They have to throw for 1st downs and deal with the same variances JC does

And JC is WORST at it and most UNPRODUCTIVE

They manage to score with all the same variances mentioned in previous comments
JC DOESNT

VetSkinsFan · Post by **VetSkinsFan** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 9:32 am

MEZZSKIN wrote:look people can conjure up a 1100 reasons why Zorn stinks or Gibbs was too conservative or Saunders stunk etc etc.

to use baseball term here.....a .230 hitter is a 230 hitter is a 230 hitter and will never bat 320

Campbell has thrown the ball 304x from the opp 49-20yd line and HAS THROWN one touchdown!
HES THE WORST IN THE NFL in production from this range...
He hasnt thrown one since 2007!!!! OVER 170 ATTEMPTS AGO!

this is absurd!

No one should defend these stats......HES UNPRODUCTIVE..
I PRAY A BOLT OF LIGHTENING HITS HIM AND HE PRODUCES

but reality says -------hes a .230 hitter

So what are you trying to get at?

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:33 am

lol hey Vet im sure your comment was in jest..its pretty clear thru this thread what im trying to get at.

if your serious and asking me about the .230 comment....its reference to baseball
.230 hitters are unproductive and unaccepted at THE MLB level

which is pretty much what JC has been inside the aforementioned Yard markers(49-20opp)

undeniable and absolute fact
304 pass attempts= 1 td
This is most anemic production of any QB in the NFL from this SUPER CRITICAL yard range

RayNAustin · Post by **RayNAustin** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:53 am

1niksder wrote:
Champsturf wrote:Funny mezz...I don't see francal over here. He must not have a counter to this. I too WAS a Campbell fan, but that was prior to this season starting, at the very least. He did NOTHING last year and has done nothing so far this year. Your stats (and I hate stats) are dead on. We're doomed until we can draft a QB and OL all next year.

His stats don't take into consideration:

1. The down and distance on those attempts.
2. The play that was called.
3. The number of passes actually caught (179)
4. The majority of the attempts (159) came while running the WCO (a system that was new to everyone involved) which is a short passing scheme (that based on yards AFTER the catch.

I love stats, I can make them say almost anything if I have enough of them or limted in available data.

And one can "rationalize" till the cows come home. I doubt those variables were significantly different for ALL of the other QBs/Teams.

And those variables all changed to an advantage for Collins?

I get it. It's been the great conspiracy of coincidences for three years, two coaching staffs and two different offensive systems.

Guess what ... down and distances and so forth are also dramatically affected positively or negatively by the play of the QB.

This TD statistic is far more relevant than the yardage and completion percentage always touted as proof of Campbell's quality of play.

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 11:13 am

heres another fun comparison....

from 2007 Jay Cutler has had 361 attempts from this range(49-20opp)

CUTLERS(361) thrown SIX PICKS----CAMPBEL(304)----EIGHT!

CAMPBELL-304 ATTEMPTS-----1 TD--WHOPPING 7 POINTS!

CUTLER --361 ATTEMPTS-------10TD'S------70 POINTS

63 point differential.....SIGNIFICANT!

GO ASK BLACHE IF HE WOULD LIKE SOME OF THESE POINTS OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS ....actually wouldnt we all

PulpExposure · Post by **PulpExposure** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:10 pm

Is the failure on Jason Campbell, or on our wide receivers? All of whom seem to catch the ball and fall down.

Once you would say Moss was a gamebreaker; he's not anymore. He's been virtually invisible the past two years. I can't remember him taking a short pass and going the distance in the past few years, as he used to do like crazy in 2005. Yeah, he'll get open on the occasional bomb, but that appears to be the extent of his game now.

Our other WR, ARE, also gets no YAC. He's just a threat to go 9 yards on a 9 yard pass play.

I love Cool

ey, but he's not a threat to take the ball 60 yards for a TD (he may have the occasional catch and rumble for 30 yards, but always gets tackled before scoring).

Everyone says that defenses stock up to stop the run...well if that's true, there shouldn't be a deep safety around to stop players from breaking off longer plays. But no one on the Redskins can do this, apparently.

It's far too simplistic to blame it on Campbell. Yes, he's absolutely part of the problem. But bringing up Cutler, for instance, is a fallacious comparison; Cutler was throwing to Brandon Marshall, a WR far better at making plays than any WR that Campbell has ever thrown to.

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 12:48 pm

PulpExposure wrote:Is the failure on Jason Campbell, or on our wide receivers? All of whom seem to catch the ball and fall down.

Once you would say Moss was a gamebreaker; he's not anymore. He's been virtually invisible the past two years. I can't remember him taking a short pass and going the distance in the past few years, as he used to do like crazy in 2005. Yeah, he'll get open on the occasional bomb, but that appears to be the extent of his game now.

Our other WR, ARE, also gets no YAC. He's just a threat to go 9 yards on a 9 yard pass play.

I love ey, but he's not a threat to take the ball 60 yards for a TD (he may have the occasional catch and rumble for 30 yards, but always gets tackled before scoring).

Everyone says that defenses stock up to stop the run...well if that's true, there shouldn't be a deep safety around to stop players from breaking off longer plays. But no one on the Redskins can do this, apparently.

It's far too simplistic to blame it on Campbell. Yes, he's absolutely part of the problem. But bringing up Cutler, for instance, is a fallacious comparison; Cutler was throwing to Brandon Marshall, a WR far better at making plays than any WR that Campbell has ever thrown to.

uh pulp---Todd Collins THREW 5TDS IN 49 attempts from this range with very same receivers ...
Todd Collins 49 attempts--- 5tds 0 picks
JC ----------304 ATTEMPTS ---1 TD'S-8 PICKS

from this range JC IS HISTORICALLY bad....
Dont you ya think in those 304 attempts he missed "just a few wide open guys" and threw to the wrong receiver ...you realize how many bad reads have to be factored in this number?
Im not here saying Todd should be the QB.....but I am saying
todds production in this range couple with JC being the worst in the NFL from this range really puts the WR arguement to bed

langleyparkjoe · Post by **langleyparkjoe** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:00 pm

Numbers don't lie huh Mezz? Still though, realistically you do have variables for such things as someone mentioned before. From important things like Zorn's play calling, OL not blocking enough + OL injuries, JC's inaccuracy, WRs dropping passes.. to smaller things like JC ate the wrong food, cut his toe nail too low, engine light came on while driving into the stadium.. See bro, lots of things could go wrong. :lol:

Bottom Line.. and yes I was one of the people fussing @ my tv screen.. bottom line is its still early and lets not kick him out yet. You gotta admit over everything you love his canon for an arm and hey, even lightning strikes twice.. in a bottle... sand? .. I don't know the dag gone cliche but you get my drift. :lol:

PulpExposure · Post by **PulpExposure** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:19 pm

MEZZSKIN wrote:uh pulp---Todd Collins THREW 5TDS IN 49 attempts from this range with very same receivers ...

Uh, your stats are off, Mezz. Collins threw 5 TDs in 2007.

In the game against the Bears, the second TD Collins threw was a 16 yarder to Ladell Betts. Not from the same range you're discussing.

I'm not sure why measuring TDs from 20-49 is so important. Is there any correlation between this statistic and winning? Or QB success? Way too many questions with your statistics, Mezz.

I mean is there some magical cutoff that means a 50 yard TD (like the one he threw to Moss last year in Detroit, or the 18 yard TD he threw to Moss against Cleveland (last year), are worth less than a 49 yard TD pass, or a 20 yard TD pass?

And he threw 3 TDs in that range in 2006. Does that change the analysis at all? Does it matter? I mean he'd have 3 TDs in that range from 2006-2007, but under Zorn he's had one, right? Does this mean that Zorn's offense doesn't give opportunities to score passes in that range?

I just am having trouble with the overall value of this statistic. Isn't it just part of the picture, the one that shows that Campbell doesn't throw a lot of TDs overall? Well, yeah...I think we all know that...

crazyhorse1 · Post by **crazyhorse1** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:39 pm

MEZZSKIN wrote:I MEANT ---"CLOSER LOOK"
my stupid typos. lol

Sorry. Your stats are inconclusive. You haven't considered the following:

Qualiity of the receivers.
Quality of the OL in regard to both pass protection and run threat.
Dropped passes that would have demonstrated vastly different stats.
A comparison between Campbell's record and the record of the running game, which is the central issue, particularly this season.

My off hand deduction remains the same.
Campbell's ineffectiveness is still inseperable from improper or inept management.

The debate rages on. Play calling is still on the table. Note: Zorn's obvious
ineptness even in regard to running plays is beyond question and I'm sure supported by stats. We simply can not run the ball for touchdowns unless given three or four shots inside the five yard line, and even then I would bet on us being stuffed unless Portis can break three or fouth tackles or slide off a stack. Our OL is consistently pushed back. We simply cannot run more than two plays without a loss.

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:57 pm

PulpExposure wrote:I'm not sure why measuring TDs from 20-49 is so important. Is there any correlation between this statistic and winning? Or QB success?

And he threw 3 TDs in that range in 2006. Does that change the analysis at all? Does it matter?

I just am having trouble with the overall value of this statistic.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/pl ... /2007/1009

in the regular season in 2007 he was Todd was 37 attempts for 4 td's and in post season he added his 5th...(moss td vs seattle)

Pulp.....NO TEAM can just accumulate points via red zone pts ...its a recipe for disaster
this yard range is absolutely critical...its a 30 window of opportunity within enemy territory....JC's overall Red zone production is inline with alot of other QB's--NOT THE BEST--BUT INLINE....BUT WERE HE DROPS DRAMITICALLY is within this range..its a direct correlation why this team avg's 18 points a game with him QB.....theres a 30 yard gap for us WERE WE DO NOT SCORE passing TD's with him as our qb

304 attempts from within 21 yards to no further than 49 yards out
and hes thrown 1 td and you do not see value in knowing that???
hes worst in the league !!...His last 170+ attempts from within this range(ironically called SRIKING DISTANCE )...AND HES THROWN

ZERO!!!!!

Show me a top ten offense THAT HAD THIS TYPE OF FUTILITY from its qb. from this 30 yard window......im all ears!

great YOU WENT BACK--FOURS YEAR AGO!!!!!! 2006..LOL CMON BRO

IM TALKING ABOUT HIS LAST 304 ATTEMPTS!!!.....thats almost a full seasons worth of passes for chrissake

That means if we played almost a FULL SEASON-and 304 passes later from within this range JC would accumulate ----

7 pts

Take from it what you want...we agree he doesnt throw TD passes right?
im telling you his overall production red zone wise is medicore but not bad...But from this range his TD production DROPS precipiticiously!...

SO why are we a low scoring team?

its right in front of you

if you choose to look elsewhere...fine

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:14 pm

crazyhorse1 wrote:Sorry. Your stats are inconclusive. You haven't considered the following:

Qualiity of the receivers.
Quality of the OL in regard to both pass protection and run threat.
Dropped passes that would have demonstrated vastly different stats.
A comparison between Campbell's record and the record of the running game, which is the central issue, particularly this season.

Crazy, they become factored in when I compare him to his peers...ALL QBS face the very same list of variances you just mentioned. Unless your arguement is we have the worst RECEIVERS--OLINE -MOST DROPPED PASSES AND WORST RUNNING GAME in the NFL..We all agree thats not the case given our overall record of 18-16 from 2007 till now

Other QB's have had bad oline play(uh big ben) Poor quality of receivers (check Eli's 2009 band) and dropped passes

but NO QB is as bad as Campbell within this 30 yard range Its not even bad...ITS IMPOTENT

yes I think Zorn's play calling leave alot on table agreed....but lets agree on one thing---and i can safely say this 304 pass attempts later

HE DOESNT MAKE PLAYS FROM THIS CRITICAL DISTANCE...which is definitely one of the reasons why were a low scoring team

I hope to hell he throws 5 TD'S this week and start ramping things up..I do not want Todd as the qb..JC is our guy...I get it.....But lets not blindly dismiss OVERWHEMING evidence in our defiencies with him as our QB

skinsfan#33 · Post by **skinsfan#33** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:41 pm

RayNAustin wrote:Although I haven't verified these stats, it follows my observations, and it would explain better than anything else, the lack of points overall.

If memory serves, prior to Zorn, in 2007, the Redskins went without a TD to a wide receiver for the entire first half of the season (from any distance). And that is just unimaginable, but also supports the idea that there is a QB issue.

My long held contention has been that Campbell misses to many (most) down field opportunities from not only poor accuracy, but also poor vision.
You just can't say that for 8 games in 2007, a wide receiver was never open deep. Impossible.

Here in 2008 and 2009, with the short passing game that is the halmark of Zorn's offense, one would expect that defensive secondaries could be easily set up and even more vulnerable to the double move Moss is so proficient at. (The guy gets behind the secondary too frequently to not be a 10+ TD guy every year.)

And for those who are so quick to point to a dropped pass as the problem ... the importance of chemistry between QBs and receivers cannot be overstated. And a lot of that chemistry has to do with knowing where your receivers are going to be ... and how quickly they get there so that the ball can be released prior to the completion of their rout where maximum separation exists. Another aspect is accuracy and throwing a consistent ball that a receiver doesn't have to make drastic adjustments to (lead them in the direction of the rout) On the receiver's end, they must be able to trust and know where that QB is going to put the ball ...

With Campbell, he RARELY hits his guy in stride or leads them effectively. His short passes are all over the place .. low, high, and behind. The deeper passes aren't consistent, often requiring a receiver that has looked over one shoulder to make a catch over the other. (in other words, a line drive with not enough air under it and directed right at him rather than leading slightly).

All of these things contribute to a poor passing attack, and require receivers to make exceptional catches which look routine. (If it's within their grasp, they should make the catch, but an accurate QB that can anticipate makes it much easier, and also leads to more strikes in stride and more TD catches.

Ray,
I agree with you, Moss would have had 2 TD just against DallASS last year (first game) that fell into this categegory. He had Moss for easy TDs and threw two terrible passes that Moss caught at the 8 instead of going for TDs.
JC doesn't throw deep very often and when he does he usually throws a horrendous pass. I would say for every 10 deep pass he throws, 9 are bad (this includes ones like above - caught but poorly thrown and cost us points!).

skinsfan#33 · Post by **skinsfan#33** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:53 pm

MEZZSKIN wrote:
[b]I hope to hell he throws 5 TD'S this week

I hope he throws five before the bye, but I'm not counting on it!

skinsfan#33 · Post by **skinsfan#33** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 3:22 pm

PulpExposure wrote:I love ey, but he's not a threat to take the ball 60 yards for a TD (he may have the occasional catch and rumble for 30 yards, but always gets tackled before scoring).

Why not he has done it in the past. He didn't score a TD but he did take a late pass from JC 60+ yards in the preseason. I also remember him scoring a 60 yard TD against the Jags a year or two ago.

I 2007 he had the most YAC of ANY TE in the NFL!

PulpExposure wrote:It's far too simplistic to blame it on Campbell. Yes, he's absolutely part of the problem.

That is why he showed you that Collins had 5 TDs in 49 attempts with the same players JC had, in the same system, and he didn't even have a heathy Moss! But some how he got the job done!

Remeber the are two coaches two different systems and JC can't get it done in either. TC got it done under Gibbs, what was Jc's excuse!

jeremyroyce · Post by **jeremyroyce** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 3:34 pm

Manchester_Redskin wrote:Statistics in the NFL make me laugh sometimes, a QB can get credited for an 80yard TD even if he only through the ball a couple of yards and the receiver ran in the other 78..

At the moment a lot of teams are having QB issues (just look at kansas) , its early season and the players are still rusty.

Let me give you a statistic and let's see if you laugh here. Now, I don't have a link but I just got done watching NFL Total Access Thursday show and Rod Woodson said that since Jason Campbell has taken over as the starting QB we are ranked 26th in scoring.

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 3:53 pm

Jeremy that stat is 100% dead on

what they said were and i actually I previously wrote it in this thread as well

With games JC has started we avg 18pts a game and thats good for 26th in the NFL

jeremyroyce · Post by **jeremyroyce** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 3:56 pm

MEZZSKIN wrote:Jeremy that stat is 100% dead on

what they said were and i actually I previously wrote it in this thread as well

With games JC has started we avg 18pts a game and thats good for 26th in the NFL

Oops my bad. I didn't realize that you pointed that out already. Sorry about that.

PulpExposure · Post by **PulpExposure** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 3:59 pm

MEZZSKIN wrote:[Pulp.....NO TEAM can just accumulate points via red zone pts ...its a recipe for disaster
this yard range is absolutely critical...its a 30 window of opportunity within enemy territory....

Okay, that's what you believe. And it's probably true. But I'd like to see some stats that show that this is true. Not just that you think that it's true.

And that you're asserting that TDs thrown in the opponent's 20-49 yard lines are critical, but somehow 18 yard TD passes (like the one to Cool

ey in the Giants game), or 50 yard TD passes (like the one to Moss mentioned above), somehow aren't as critical.

I just think you're cherry picking stats a bit here.

I'm just not sure why TDs thrown in the opponent's 20-49 yard line is so critical. Why are they more critical than TDs thrown at the 50 yard line, or the 15-45 yard line, etc.?

PulpExposure · Post by **PulpExposure** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:00 pm

skinsfan#33 wrote:
PulpExposure wrote:I love ey, but he's not a threat to take the ball 60 yards for a TD (he may have the occasional catch and rumble for 30 yards, but always gets tackled before scoring).

Why not he has done it in the past. He didn't score a TD but he did take a late pass from JC 60+ yards in the preseason. I also remember him scoring a 60 yard TD against the Jags a year or two ago.

I 2007 he had the most YAC of ANY TE in the NFL!

Yeah, but he doesn't take them for TDs, does he? Like I said, I love Cool

ey, but there isn't a player on this team who can take a short pass and turn it into a TD. Not one!

Is that on Campbell, too?

MEZZSKIN · Post by **MEZZSKIN** » Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:30 pm

PulpExposure wrote:Okay, that's what you believe. And it's probably true. But I'd like to see some stats that show that this is true. Not just that you think that it's true.

I just think you're cherry picking stats a bit here.

Pulp , Im not cherry picking...WE ARE A LOW SCORING TEAM .
there are reasons....causes to the effects

Every top ten offense over the years has had some level of efficiency from this range...EVERY
i do not have the time to research to prove something that is painfully obvious

If we already know JC's red zone stats are INLINE(not great but in the ballpark so to speak) with other NFL QB's why r we still ranked 26th in scoring with him as our QB
and we agree his TD production is lacking by wide margins correct

im SHOWING YOU A LARGE BODY OF ENEMY TERRITORY..30 YARDS WORTH
were he is impotent...zero production ---304 attempts ---1TD

no pass offense strikes from 55-70 yards out with regularity!....THOSE ARE FREAK AND INFREQUENT PLAYS

Most teams do theBulk of their scoring from ---you guessed it--------ENEMY TERRITORY!

and for 62 percent of that territory--21-49yds line

Campbell is IMPOTENT...AND WORST IN THE NFL -

OUR PASSING GAME works WITH MEDICORITY from 19-1
and from 21-49...We have zero passing production

like i said I challenge people to SHOW ME.
..what Top 12 or 10 offense over the last 3 years had a passing game this bad/IMPOTENT from this range 21-49yds
SHOW ME ONE!!!!