NBCSports.com: ASK THE NFL EXPERT

[Natural born Redskin]

ASK THE NFL EXPERT
By Don Pierson
NBCSports.com contributor
Updated: 12:34 a.m. ET May 18, 2004


Joe Gibbs is a Hall of Fame coach. He also is a first-year coach. He is this season's version of Bill Parcells. That means Gibbs' Washington Redskins will be expected to follow Parcells' Dallas Cowboys into the playoffs.



How much difference will the new coaches make?

Seven new coaches have started work in six of the eight divisions. Only the AFC North and South remain static.

The NFL traditionally turns over approximately one fourth of its coaching jobs every season. Two years ago, a first-year coach, Jon Gruden, won the Super Bowl. That is unusual. More often, first-year coaches take over failing teams. Under Gibbs' predecessor Steve Spurrier, the Redskins were 5-11. In Spurrier's two seasons, they were 12-20. Spurrier was supposed to make a bigger difference.

Live Vote
Which coach will have the best success in his first season with his new team? * 9673 responses


Tom Coughlin, Giants
8%

Joe Gibbs, Redskins
47%

Dennis Green, Cardinals
10%

Jim Mora Jr., Falcons
11%

Mike Mularkey, Bills
5%

Lovie Smith, Bears
7%

Norv Turner, Raiders
13%

Not a scientifically valid survey.



Gibbs will. Away from the game for 11 seasons, during which the league changed to a less stable free-agent system, Gibbs won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks, unique among peers. For molding different groups into championship teams, Gibbs was the best of his time.

Already, the Redskins have acquired the best running back in the NFC East in Clinton Portis. They have added a veteran quarterback in Mark Brunell, who has more experience than any starter in the division. They have one of the best receivers in Laveranues Coles. Surely Gibbs will figure out a way to contend once the games begin.

He may be the only one, however.

Tom Coughlin is taking over the New York Giants in the same division and already has been accused of violating union working conditions with his offseason voluntary camps, which always seem mandatory.

With a rookie quarterback in Eli Manning, Coughlin is going to need all the work he can squeeze in. He won in Jacksonville, but that was with Brunell, now Gibbs' quarterback.

None of the new coaches took over a winning team. Chicago's Lovie Smith took over the team with the best record, 7-9. But if the Bears are ready for a breakthrough, they will be doing it with a virtual rookie quarterback in Rex Grossman, who had three starts at the end of the Dick Jauron regime.

The Bears will be playing with a castoff running back in Thomas Jones, no dangerous deep passing threat, and a defense dead-last in the league with only 18 quarterback sacks.

Smith presides over the most inexperienced coaching staff in the league with the head coach, defensive coordinator, offensive coordinator and special teams coach all doing their jobs for the first time.

Other than Gibbs, Arizona's Dennis Green comes back with the most experience but takes over the worst franchise. Green's first challenge is to convince his Cardinals they aren't hopeless. Green is talking big.

"I've said right from the start that we want to go to the playoffs the first year," he said. "That's our goal, and I'll be very disappointed if we don't."

Anything close will make him coach of the year. Like Smith, Green is going with an untested quarterback in Josh McCown, plus a defense that ranked 26th and an offense that ranked 27th.

Those lowly rankings look good to Atlanta's new coach, Jim Mora. The Falcons were 32nd in defense, 29th in offense. At least Mora has a healthy Michael Vick, who is supposed to possess the prescription to cure everything instantly. That would make Vick an easy MVP. First, Vick must adapt to an entirely new West Coast offense.

The two AFC teams with new coaches are the Buffalo Bills with Mike Mularkey and the Oakland Raiders with Norv Turner. Both are expected to win fast, but both enter divisions too tough to crack in one season.

Mularkey is a first-year head coach inheriting a quarterback on his last legs in Drew Bledsoe. Paying so much to draft J.P Losman indicates the Bills are anticipating rebuilding soon. They also will be finding out whether Willis McGahee can run.

Turner has been around the block with the Redskins, where he made the playoffs once in seven tries. He steps into a Raiders team that never thinks it needs to rebuild, but is lining up with a quarterback in Rich Gannon, who will turn 39, and receivers in Jerry Rice and Tim Brown, who are 41 and 38.

Turner will feel more like a museum curator than a football coach.