Rogers gone?

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Post by Irn-Bru »

markshark84 wrote:Remember when everyone would come on here during the season and complain about how Rodgers couldn't catch balls and constantly missed out on big play opportunities? Funny how things change when there is the possibility of lossing him.

Yes, but many of the people who hated him them hate him now. I've always stood up for Rogers, as far as I can remember, in the last 2 seasons. There was just some point during 2007 that I thought, 'man, he has improved a HUGE amount and is turning into a legit cover corner!' Since then I haven't seen anything on the field to make me change my mind, haters notwithstanding.
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Post by jdubya »

Its really cool that you can quote me that many times and not make a point.

Please tell me when Rogers has been a positive game changer.

He gets burned for more big plays than any corner the 'Skins have had in recent history.

That is the truth.
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Post by jdubya »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqzRpNtf3ow

plays like this one are the difference between Rogers and someone good.

The Skins would have won the game if Rogers makes this pick 6.

He is not a game changer. He is a warm body on the field.
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Post by Irn-Bru »

jdubya wrote:Its really cool that you can quote me that many times and not make a point.

Please tell me when Rogers has been a positive game changer.

He gets burned for more big plays than any corner the 'Skins have had in recent history.

That is the truth.

I'm only responding in kind, dude. All I'm seeing from you is a lot of opinion and bare-faced assertions, which is OK I guess, but please don't be surprised if that's what comes right back at you.

You probably know very well that there aren't a hell of a lot of concrete stats that can be used to build a case that Rogers is a good / bad cornerback. Sure, we have dropped INTs, or the NFL's near-useless 'passes defended' stat, but a lot of it comes down to perspicacious fans who make judgment calls. Since you obviously don't trust me on this one, I'll defer to one of the several football analysis websites I trust (here's a hint, JLC's blog ain't one of them). From 2007, just take a look at some of these defensive breakdowns. You will find specific praise for Rogers:

http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=1221
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=1239
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=1329

And then 2008:
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=3588
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=3714
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=3933

and especially these (btw, notice how Roger's ratings from PGH are getting better and better as time progresses? If only I had pointed out that he was improving over time. . .):
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4048
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4242
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4393
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4611

Your only good point has been the rather obvious one that Rogers drops INTs. Okay, we get it, we get it! And I agree that's a problem. But the reality is that you can't magically replace him with someone better (who, by the way, can also play more than 8 games a year) without paying FAR more than we are able to pay. Not to mention that you haven't made any good argument against Rogers' coverage abilities (aside from unsupported assertions), which is my main point.


I hope you've got some substance to come back with, because it really irritates me when people want to get into an opinion-pissing contest and then (after starting it) get mad at me for not using more stats. ;)
Last edited by Irn-Bru on Sat Jan 03, 2009 9:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Irn-Bru »

jdubya wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqzRpNtf3ow

plays like this one are the difference between Rogers and someone good.

The Skins would have won the game if Rogers makes this pick 6.

He is not a game changer. He is a warm body on the field.


LOL. This was written in between the time you first posted and I responded, and unsurprisingly all you did was make the same damn point. Alright, man, we've beaten that horse into a bloody pulp. Time to move on. . .
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Post by Irn-Bru »

jdubya wrote:He gets burned for more big plays than any corner the 'Skins have had in recent history.


Ade Jimoh? Leigh Torrence? Walt Harris? Garnell Wilds? Please don't tell me you really think this about Rogers. . .

Heck, Smoot has been burned more often in the last 2 years than Rogers, as far as I can recall. I think you're mostly bitter about the dropped INTs, which, while understandable, doesn't equate to bad coverage on Rogers' part.
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Post by Hoss »

damn, where's my popcorn emoticon????? someone's getting schooled......... :lol:
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or what you said....

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Post by Countertrey »

Hoss wrote:damn, where's my popcorn emoticon????? someone's getting schooled......... :lol:


Yes, he's getting schooled, but what do you bet he still doesn't know it? :wink:
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Post by Trample the Elderly »

Irn-Bru wrote:
jdubya wrote:Its really cool that you can quote me that many times and not make a point.

Please tell me when Rogers has been a positive game changer.

He gets burned for more big plays than any corner the 'Skins have had in recent history.

That is the truth.

I'm only responding in kind, dude. All I'm seeing from you is a lot of opinion and bare-faced assertions, which is OK I guess, but please don't be surprised if that's what comes right back at you.

You probably know very well that there aren't a hell of a lot of concrete stats that can be used to build a case that Rogers is a good / bad cornerback. Sure, we have dropped INTs, or the NFL's near-useless 'passes defended' stat, but a lot of it comes down to perspicacious fans who make judgment calls. Since you obviously don't trust me on this one, I'll defer to one of the several football analysis websites I trust (here's a hint, JLC's blog ain't one of them). From 2007, just take a look at some of these defensive breakdowns. You will find specific praise for Rogers:

http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=1221
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=1239
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=1329

And then 2008:
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=3588
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=3714
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=3933

and especially these (btw, notice how Roger's ratings from PGH are getting better and better as time progresses? If only I had pointed out that he was improving over time. . .):
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4048
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4242
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4393
http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=4611

Your only good point has been the rather obvious one that Rogers drops INTs. Okay, we get it, we get it! And I agree that's a problem. But the reality is that you can't magically replace him with someone better (who, by the way, can also play more than 8 games a year) without paying FAR more than we are able to pay. Not to mention that you haven't made any good argument against Rogers' coverage abilities (aside from unsupported assertions), which is my main point.


I hope you've got some substance to come back with, because it really irritates me when people want to get into an opinion-pissing contest and then (after starting it) get mad at me for not using more stats. ;)


Great Site, thanks.
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Post by jdubya »

Nice analysis.

I respect some of those opinions.

BUt I go to 8 skins games per year. And from where I sit, Rogers is still not the quality of a guy like springs.

Isn't it the job of the defense to get the ball back for the offense? Part of that is take aways.

We suck at that stat. And Rogers is part of that problem.

You can say that the dropped INTs don't matter, but that is an important part of team defense. Teams that are in the playoffs make picks. They force fumbles. While not all of that is on Rogers, he certainly doesn't help.

A top corner grabs those balls and makes plays to help win games. Rogers doesn't do that.
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Post by welch »

A small voice with a humble opinion:

- Darrell Green was the best CB the Redskins have ever had or seen

- Green used to joke about his inability to hold onto the ball

- All Green did was break up passes. That was enough.

- Rogers can drop INTs as long as he keeps stopping the passes.

- He looks better to me than he did when he was a rookie. For the young folks, Green had sloppy technique in his first few years. He was so fast that he could usually recover, but he became a great CB only when he learned to be in the right place first. Rogers is not as fast, but he seems to be learning the position.
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Post by Irn-Bru »

jdubya wrote:BUt I go to 8 skins games per year. And from where I sit, Rogers is still not the quality of a guy like springs.

Look, if the odds were that we'd have Springs for 13+ games next year, I'd be a lot closer to holding your view on this. But to me, having Rogers for 14+ games is better than having Springs for 8 and Ade Jimoh (or his equivalent) for 8---not to mention the cap space Springs is eating up, keeping us from being able to sign quality depth (to replace him when he gets injured).

Keep in mind that we're discussing some tough choices for next year. With Hall here and making his $$$, either Springs or Rogers needs to go (it would seem).

(How many picks did Springs get this past year, by the way? And how much of an improvement over Rogers is Springs' INT total?)

You can say that the dropped INTs don't matter,

Dude, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the equation "I'll take Springs over Rogers" is oversimplified when you consider two things: $$$ and the likelihood of Springs remaining healthy.

Remember, we most likely can't keep both. Springs is the highest paid player on this team, and the odds are not good that he'll play another 15 game season. Just not worth it, IMO, for a solid cornerback. Rogers, on the other hand, is far cheaper, younger and healthier, and continues to improve as a player (see previous links on that analysis). To me it's a pretty clear cut case, given the particular problems that we're facing. I'm afraid that Danny and Vinny, from rumors, appear to agree with you, though. :|
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Post by jdubya »

No one can compare Darrell Green to anyone the skins have had since.

I agree that Springs is expensive. I agree that Rogers is young.

I am of the opinion that you go with the better player. It stands to reason that we won't get another 16 game season from Springs. But Rogers has only played one 16 game season in 4 years. Who's to say that he won't have any issues that keep him out a couple games a year moving forward?

Go with the talent. That is my opinion.

I respect the idea that you go with the cheaper, younger guy.

But you have to replace talent with talent. not youth or price tag.
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Post by Skinsfan55 »

I respect the special connection you can get by seeing the team in person, and I know people who attend the games see a little more than the average guy... (I also know you're on my side of the fence on this jdubya)

but we're all just regular fans for the most part, not professional scouts.

I think Springs is a better player than Rogers too, but I tend to base it on statistics and professional scouting reports (available with insider on ESPN.) I wouldn't imagine I'd be capable of doing the legwork myself. (Especially after drinking a couple beers at the game :wink:)
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Post by jdubya »

and fyi, Cooley is the highest paid guy on the Skins this year, followed by Portis.

Springs is 7th.

Rogers is 37th.
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Post by jdubya »

Skinsfan55 wrote:I respect the special connection you can get by seeing the team in person, and I know people who attend the games see a little more than the average guy... (I also know you're on my side of the fence on this jdubya)

but we're all just regular fans for the most part, not professional scouts.

I think Springs is a better player than Rogers too, but I tend to base it on statistics and professional scouting reports (available with insider on ESPN.) I wouldn't imagine I'd be capable of doing the legwork myself. (Especially after drinking a couple beers at the game :wink:)


I am not a regular fan. Regular fans stop paying attention come January, and resume their interest come August.

I am not a professional scout. But I (like all of you) watch games. I watch players.

I have not seen the player that some of you think Rogers is.

The scouts can say what they will. But the proof is in the pudding. We had a good defense this season. But where did we rank in the key category of takeaways? near the bottom of the league.

THe best defenses get turnovers. and those teams make the post season.
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Post by Irn-Bru »

jdubya wrote:and fyi, Cooley is the highest paid guy on the Skins this year, followed by Portis.

Springs is 7th.

Rogers is 37th.


I meant cap hit, and actually I see that Jason Taylor has the biggest this year. Springs is also scheduled to be #2 next year, behind Sammuels.

I wouldn't care if Snyder threw $20 mil of his own money at Springs if he could somehow make that a $1 mil cap hit. That's the only thing I'm worried about.
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Post by Irn-Bru »

jdubya wrote:I am of the opinion that you go with the better player. It stands to reason that we won't get another 16 game season from Springs. But Rogers has only played one 16 game season in 4 years. Who's to say that he won't have any issues that keep him out a couple games a year moving forward?


He could very well sit out a couple of games over the next season or two. But Springs is likely to miss far more time.

I also still don't see how you've really countered my assessment of Rogers. Maybe we're just at an impasse. :|
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Post by jdubya »

Irn-Bru wrote:
jdubya wrote:I am of the opinion that you go with the better player. It stands to reason that we won't get another 16 game season from Springs. But Rogers has only played one 16 game season in 4 years. Who's to say that he won't have any issues that keep him out a couple games a year moving forward?


He could very well sit out a couple of games over the next season or two. But Springs is likely to miss far more time.

I also still don't see how you've really countered my assessment of Rogers. Maybe we're just at an impasse. :|


Your assessment was based on the links you posted? Rogers was mentioned here and there, but I did not see a glowing report on him in each one of those.

He is not a game changer. Springs is.

We are at an impass. Nothing wrong with that at all. I love the debate.

I just wish that Rogers would have shown me something more than what he has. He is a first round pick for god sake!
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Post by PulpExposure »

jdubya wrote:He is not a game changer. Springs is.


Really? What game can you point to that Springs has changed for us?

And before you trot out the first Dallas game, just know that when Springs covered TO in that game, TO had TO to 7 catches for 71 yards. However, in the 2nd Dallas game, TO didn't play, and TO had a worse game, at 5 catches for 38 yards.

If you want to say that Springs is a better cover corner, okay. But to say he's a "game changer"? Dude hasn't scored a TD since 1998, and 3 of the past 5 seasons he's had a grand total of 1 interception each season. Come on.
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Post by Steve Spurrier III »

welch wrote:A small voice with a humble opinion:

- Darrell Green was the best CB the Redskins have ever had or seen

- Green used to joke about his inability to hold onto the ball

- All Green did was break up passes. That was enough.

- Rogers can drop INTs as long as he keeps stopping the passes.

- He looks better to me than he did when he was a rookie. For the young folks, Green had sloppy technique in his first few years. He was so fast that he could usually recover, but he became a great CB only when he learned to be in the right place first. Rogers is not as fast, but he seems to be learning the position.


This is kind of like saying Patrick Ramsey = Dan Marino because neither can scramble. By the time Green was 27, he was already an elite corner. Rogers may still improve, but at a position that relies so much on pure athleticism, a big jump in ability is unlikely.

Also, while they weren't the best, I think you're underrating Green's hands. He had 14 interceptions through his first four years, compared to six for Rogers. Granted, Green probably got his hands on a lot more footballs than Rogers does, so their drop percentage might still be similar.

But I know I read somewhere recently (I think Charlie Casserly either wrote it or said it, but I can't find it now) that in 1986 the Redskins were planning on using Green on offense a little bit. But then the USFL folded and the Redskins landed Ricky Sanders, so those plans got lost in the shuffle. The point is, while Green's hands weren't exactly made of glue, they were good enough for the team to toy with the idea of him playing offense.

Finally, while everyone has to acknowledge that Springs is much more likely to miss time due to injury, let's not pretend that Rogers, a guy who has already had a major knee injury, is a guarantee to stay healthy. Games played the last two years: Springs 25, Rogers 23.
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Post by PulpExposure »

Steve Spurrier III wrote:Finally, while everyone has to acknowledge that Springs is much more likely to miss time due to injury, let's not pretend that Rogers, a guy who has already had a major knee injury, is a guarantee to stay healthy. Games played the last two years: Springs 25, Rogers 23.


That's being disingenious. If you want to play that game, then counting 2006 as well, Springs has played in 34 games, Rogers has played in 38...

Rogers played in 7 games in 2007, because of that one injury. Springs habitually has missed multiple games over his entire career, and purely based on statistics, is a good bet to miss 1/4 of the season (his average).

And, again, there's a basic physiological difference in recovery time between a 27 year old and a 33 year old (34 in March). Think how long it takes Spring to get over his injuries, and then remember that Rogers came back the next year, to play, on a pretty horrific knee injury (when everyone thought he'd be out until November of 2008). Rogers has proven how dedicated he is, and what a fast healer he has been, with that pretty astounding recovery. Plus, think that most people who suffer injuries like that take 2 years to fully recover...and so he should be even better next year.

Do you honestly think that Springs could have recovered from the same kind of injury that Rogers suffered, to play the next year?
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Post by Countertrey »

Steve Spurrier III wrote:
welch wrote:A small voice with a humble opinion:

- Darrell Green was the best CB the Redskins have ever had or seen

- Green used to joke about his inability to hold onto the ball

- All Green did was break up passes. That was enough.

- Rogers can drop INTs as long as he keeps stopping the passes.

- He looks better to me than he did when he was a rookie. For the young folks, Green had sloppy technique in his first few years. He was so fast that he could usually recover, but he became a great CB only when he learned to be in the right place first. Rogers is not as fast, but he seems to be learning the position.


This is kind of like saying Patrick Ramsey = Dan Marino because neither can scramble. By the time Green was 27, he was already an elite corner. Rogers may still improve, but at a position that relies so much on pure athleticism, a big jump in ability is unlikely.

Also, while they weren't the best, I think you're underrating Green's hands. He had 14 interceptions through his first four years, compared to six for Rogers. Granted, Green probably got his hands on a lot more footballs than Rogers does, so their drop percentage might still be similar.

But I know I read somewhere recently (I think Charlie Casserly either wrote it or said it, but I can't find it now) that in 1986 the Redskins were planning on using Green on offense a little bit. But then the USFL folded and the Redskins landed Ricky Sanders, so those plans got lost in the shuffle. The point is, while Green's hands weren't exactly made of glue, they were good enough for the team to toy with the idea of him playing offense.

Finally, while everyone has to acknowledge that Springs is much more likely to miss time due to injury, let's not pretend that Rogers, a guy who has already had a major knee injury, is a guarantee to stay healthy. Games played the last two years: Springs 25, Rogers 23.


It's, indeed, unfortunate that you completely missed the fine point that Welch was making... which is that the great DG did not have the greatest of hands, either. Welch is also NOT underestimating Green's hands, as the statement comes from Green himself.

He is NOT making the argument that 'los is therefore, the same as DG.

Hyperbole does nothing to increase the validity of your attempt at a counterpoint, and it does not refute Rogers' considerable coverage skills.

I also agree with Darrel Green's assessment of his own hands... yet, I also saw him make the most incredible catch, EVER... an interception that was nullified by a defensive holding penalty (away from the play), and, therefore, will never (unfortunately) be seen on a highlight reel.

Green had deep cover on a corner route. The pass was high, but Green jumped the route, was able to jump up, and, with his left hand, just grab the tip of the ball, which he immediately lost control of. As he had leaped in an awkward position, his momentum turned him away from the ball, but he maintained his focus. The ball trickled down his left arm, and down his back. He reached behind with his left arm as he was coming down, pinned the ball, and was able to grasp and control it, bringing it around to his front. The receiver had overshot at this time, and as DG hit the ground, he was running, with nothing but daylight between him and the goal... Had he scored, it definitely would have been one for the annals...

I suspect that whoever had gotten the penalty probably got an earful...


Green DID NOT have great hands... but that one was a thing of beauty.
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Post by Steve Spurrier III »

I said that Rogers was the better bet to stay healthy, I'm just pointing out that it's not a lock.
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Post by Steve Spurrier III »

Countertrey wrote:It's, indeed, unfortunate that you completely missed the fine point that Welch was making... which is that the great DG did not have the greatest of hands, either.


Actually, he had a much better point than that. But as for your point, saying that "good hands is not a requirement for being a good corner" is indeed similar to saying "fast feet are not a requirement for being a good quarterback." Just as statement B does not prove that Patrick Ramsey is or will ever be a good quarterback, statement A does not prove that Carlos Rogers is or will ever be a good corner. That's not to say Carlos is or isn't, just that it doesn't offer proof.

Countertrey wrote:Welch is also NOT uderestimating Green's hands, as the statement comes from Green himself.


I suspect that Green was being humble and a bit self-deprecating, and was in fact underestimating his own hands. I agree that it was the weak point of his game, but his hands were far from made of stone.
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