Rather than look at whoever Miami picks next year (which you can't do now), the best way to judge this deal is to look at the Skins history of picking #2 guys. I think it's pretty much hit or miss and the "hits" were relatively short lived in most cases. (Let's not even consider the #6 pick here at all. It's trivial.)
Here's a recent compilation of the Skin's luck with second round picks since the dawn of the first Gibb's era in 1982. If you objectively look at our history, there's at least a 1 out of 3 shot the guy you pick at #2 is a bust. The other two of three guys may turn out to be a perrenial starter, a solid backup or someone who flashes but fades fast.
So, as I see it, Taylor will at least be equal to a guy who is really good but fades fast. I think it's only a 33% chance that you'll pick a guy who will contribute more to a team than a Jason Taylor would. So, chances are that this was a good thing for us and it's hard to measure what Taylor could bring to the locker room. He certainly should help the defense get Jim Zorn off to a better coaching start which could be invaluable to Zorn's confidence and success here.
And, unless we're picking in the first round in the "blue chip zone," we can always trade down again to get more picks and make up for it. I think that worked well for us this year.
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Recap of No. 2's
Jon Jansen was probably the best #2 but has been hit with injuries a lot the past couple of seasons. Fred Smoot was a good #2 pick but he left and since he's come back, still hasn't had a signature year, that is, near pro-bowl status. McIntosh has flashed greatness but has proven that the knee problems he had in college were a concern in the pros. Looking back Tre Johnson may have been our best #2 pick, an all-Madden team guy who used to crush defensive guys. He was built a lot like Larry Allen. Still, I don't recall Johnson's staying power in the NFL.
Andre Collins I thought would have a longer career but he didn't. He had problems shaking blockers against the run but was good in pass coverage and a solid rusher. Reggie Brooks had a great rookie season and faded. Lohmiller had a great career with Washington but is any kicker worth a #2 pick? Debatable. Could have probably gotten him later. Stephen Alexander was a guy I thought would be around for a long time but
ey seems to have been everything we thought Alexander would be. In six years (1982-87) we had nine No. 2 picks and I only recall Vernon Dean making any impact. He had a short career too.
Does anyone recall Wally Kleine, Walter Murray, Bob Slater, Steve Hamilton, or Richard Williams? Sorry, but I don't know if any of them made the roster.
2006
2. Rocky McIntosh, LB, Miami
2003
2. Taylor Jacobs, WR, Florida
2002
2. Ladell Betts, RB, Iowa
2001
2. Fred Smoot, CB, Mississippi St.
1999
2. Jon Jansen, T, Michigan
1998
2. Stephen Alexander, TE, Oklahoma
1997
2. Greg Jones, LB, Colorado
1995
2. Cory Raymer, C, Wisconson
1994
2. Tre Johnson, T, Temple
1993
2. Reggie Brooks, RB, Notre Dame
1992
2. Shane Collins, DE, Arizona St
1990
2. Andre Collins, LB, Penn St.
1988
2. Chip Lohmiller, K, Minnesota
1987
2. Brian Davis, DB, Nebraska
2. Wally Kleine, T, Notre Dame
1986
2. Marcus Koch, DE, Boise St.
2. Walter Murray, WR, Hawaii
1985
2. Tory Nixon, DB, San Diego St.
1984
2. Bob Slater, DT, Oklahoma
2. Steve Hamilton, DE, East Carolina
1983
2. Richard Williams, RB, Memphis St.
1982
2. Vernon Dean, CB, San Diego St.
... I wish this board had been around back then, I would love to hear the screams when that pick was made, grated it turned out okay but wow!
You're pessimistic.
