Bob 0119 wrote:Not that I am in any way qualified to discuss this, but the basics of the theory seem pretty sound.
It is a rare thing when the number 2 or 3 draft pick makes more than the first overall. That's not to say that it hasn't happened, but it is rare. Most agents negotiate their players salaries based on the number 1 overall pick's salary. It's not as simple as the top pick makes the most and each subsequent make incrimentally less so value of position certainly seems to be a factor.
You're theory seems to take into account that the number 2 overall could make more than the number one overall based on their positional values.
As to the E=MC^2 debate
If I recall my history channel correctly, wasn't Einstien's theory designed to prove that nothing travels faster than light? The theoretical problem was posed as "what if you are on a train, travelling at the speed of light, and you walk from the back of the train to the front, aren't you travelling faster than the speed of light?" Einstien's theory of relativity proved that your speed is relative to your own momentum. You are travelling at about 2.5 miles per hour on a train travelling the speed of light, therefor you are not travelling faster than light.
The theory is that the Perceived Value of the 1st draft selection is greater than the 2nd draft selection. The reality is that the 1st draft selection has a higher perceived value to the team drafting the player, but not necessarily a higher actual value. That is why the theory is based upon perceived value.
What would be interesting is to use the same theory to calculate actual value, based upon performance, about three years after the draft. The odds are greater than the lottery odds that the perceived values and the actual values would be the same.
But if a team perceives a draft selection to be worth top five money, the team will pay top five money regardless of whether or not any negotiations would lower the Salary. And because of the way NFL contracts can be structured, it is relatively painless to offer a draft selection a $50 Million-Plus contract. Only half of the money, at most is guaranteed. And the contract is likely six years or longer. Only the signing bonus is actually guaranteed. The rest of the figures are a combination of salary and "Likely to be earned" incentives and bonuses.
So, out of that $50 Million, $20 Million is the guaranteed signing bonus, divided over the length of the contract. Salary, Roster Bonuses, and Incentives are only earned if the player is on the active roster. So, while cutting a 1st round selection in the short term may seem like an idiotic thing to do, teams could conceivably do it for a lot less than the total contract amounts indicate.
I perceive that the value of Durant Brooks will be equal to, or greater than the value of not only Derrick Frost, but also equal to, or greater than the value of two or more draft selections taken prior to Brooks by the Redskins. By this theory, Brooks' actual value is greater than his perceived value. So, this remains a theory until which time as I can attempt to prove it and create Podman's Law.
