ok, i am still all too aware that between the combination of gibbsian timid decision-making/poor game management and our ridiculous slew of injuries, we could very well lose most of our upcoming games. throw in a few [more] inexcusably horrendous calls by refs and put 'em at a few monumentally important junctures in the games, and who knows we could lose ALL the rest of our games. i won't be surprised at all to miss the playoffs.
but i have a weird feeling we will make the playoffs. and i have an even weirder, but much firmer feeling, that if we do, we will go to the superbowl.
why am i optimistic? jason campbell, that's why. my greatest hopes for him were that he would develop into a prototypical "gibbs" quarterback, with the added ability to scramble well. you know, manage the game efficiently, execute the play-action game to perfection, and occasionally take the lead in a pinch.
but i feel like we are starting to see a QB who's abilities include all that but also extend far beyond it. we're seeing a QB who can be perfectly comfortable, and even thrive if the game is put firmly and directly in his hands, who can take over a game instead of just manage it. who can call his own plays in a no-huddle and throw quick, precise passes off of quick, smart reads, hit receivers in stride right on the sideline just past the outstretched arms of a defender with a laser on a 20 yard out, loft a perfect touch pass a foot over the LBs hand to hit the receiver before he reaches the level of the safeties, avoid a pass rush and throw a perfect "thread-the-needle" TD pass to a WR in stride in the back corner of the endzone, through traffic, while on the run and about to get pasted by a blitzing defender. etc etc etc. and he has a great, GREAT attitude, a yearning for greatness that comes out of love of competition, rather than love of his own ego or thirst for "celebrity".
and why shouldn't we be able to make the superbowl? who is it we're supposed to be so afraid of, the endlessly touted "NFC Elite"-- Dallas?? friends, if sean taylor plays that game, not only is there literally no chance whatsoever dallas wins that game, i do not even believe it would have been close. we were holding them in check completely until the Blown Coverage Hat Trick. if they try to go deep to owens that many times with ST back there, TO would be leaving the game on a stretcher.
so who else is there. Green Bay? uh, you mean the Green Bay that we would have beaten by 3 or 4 touchdowns if we hadn't let the ball squirt right through our hands 437 times total, between all the dropped passes and fumbles?
the green bay that was only able to barely edge us out despite all of that because we went so low on the offensive line depth chart we had to clone our injured linemen, grow the clone in a test-tube on the sideline, and send him into the game, only to watch him get injured 3 plays later, and have to grow a new clone, going through a total of 13 different clones throughout the course of the game? and then they ran out of clone-making materials so joe bugel himself actually had to suit up and play right tackle the last few plays?
the green bay that did next to NOTHING against us on offense, and not because they kept dropping it, but because we simply kept stopping them? (sean taylor probably dropped more balls favre threw than his own receivers did).
ok, the only other NFC team that anyone even THINKS might be any good is the giants. you know, the ones we squandered a 14 point lead against because gibbs switched into the "Prevent Offense" for the entire 2nd half until the very end, when campbell took over in the no-huddle and we magically moved the ball right down to the goal-line? well, gibbs seems to have finally gotten the idea, and turned campbell loose (for the most part).
the fact is, not only is campbell already BETTER than eli now, it's not even close. eli is not an ounce better than he was all of last year, and that wasn't even THAT much better than he was in '05 to begin with.
don't get me wrong, eli is pretty good- but he has reached his peak, and still has some serious flaws. campbell is already better, and he is just getting started. expect to see many gunslinger duels between campbell and eli over the next 10 years, and expect to see eli be embarassed in the majority of them. that series of embarassments will begin on December 16th in front of the whole nation on Sunday Night Football.
my bottom line points are:
a) campbell is really good, yay
2) with the exception of the patriots game, the results of all our games have been almost entirely decided by the play of the redskins themselves. the opponents have been nearly irrelevant. we have decided nearly unilaterally who would lose, who would win. no opponent has beaten us, has "done" anything to beat us. we have beaten ourselves. the first step to correcting that has been made- letting campbell run a legitimate NFL offense.
if we make a few more corrections, and get a couple healthy players back (taylor obviously, but don't forget about randy thomas. i know O-Line is all about chemistry, but i have a hard time believing randy thomas isn't a huge upgrade over fabini no matter what, regardless of how fabini's been playing recently. simply because randy thomas is outstanding)...
if we can correct things enough to MAKE the playoffs, we will get to the superbowl.
are we ready to win it yet? no, i don't see us beating the AFC team (which, by the way, will be the colts if they can get healthy by playoff time. their game against the patriots a few weeks ago would not even have been particularly close if manning had all his receivers/linemen playing and healthy. let's also not forget that the odds of NE making it through the rest of the year without any injury to at least ONE of their vaunted WRs or linemen is probably simply mathematically impossible. the moment they go from 3 great WRs to 2, it will reduce their potency by FAR more than 1/3. Darth Brady will no longer be able to simply look at the defense and easily decide PRE-SNAP who he is going to throw the ball to based on which one of the receivers has been given the Utterly Ridiculous Mismatch by the defense [please don't tell me you've been fooled by all the hype about brady's "amazing quick decision-making"-- take a look at the vast majority of his plays, he has his mind made up before he even gets the ball. if he even bothers to look anywhere else first, it is just an obligatory "looking off the defender". so no, don't count me among those impressed by his "magical season" of Having 40 Seconds to Recognize the Utterly Ridiculous Mismatch Pre-Snap Instead of Having to Go Through Actual Progressions and Make a Decision in 2.7 Seconds, and Lobbing an Underthrown Pass into Double-or-Triple Coverage on Randy Moss and Having Him Shove Two of the Defenders to the Ground and Jumping up to Catch the Ball Over the Other One's Head Because He is Eleven Feet Tall.)
anyways... there would be no shame in losing the AFC team... the AFC elite are teams that have been growing together for years and years, have had tons of playoff and championship experience. they have superstar QBs in the prime of their careers.
so anyways i am feeling really good about us right now. even if we totally blow it, as long as campbell keeps looking like he's looked the past couple games, i know we'll be set for many years to come.
