Draft picks are worth more to builders than to winners
By Dan Pompei - SportingNews
Like $100 bills taken by the wind, the Redskins' draft picks are scattered across the NFL. There are two in Denver. One is in Jacksonville and another is in Chicago. You also can find one in New Orleans.
The Redskins have only three draft picks, two fewer than the next closest team. It was a similar situation last year, when Washington drafted three players. This wouldn't be a problem if the Redskins were a team on the verge of winning a Super Bowl. But the last time they sniffed the postseason was 1999. Last season, only four teams had a worse record. Washington needs those picks as much as an athlete in training needs protein.
The Dolphins also have played it fast and loose with their draft picks. There is a difference, though. The Dolphins have been an annual contender, looking for one or two players to put them over the top. It made sense to trade a 2005 second-round pick for quarterback A.J. Feeley, a sixth-round pick next year for receiver David Boston (if he makes the opening day roster), and a fifth-round pick this year for linebacker Junior Seau. It's difficult to criticize the Dolphins for trading a 2004 second-round pick for a 2003 third-round pick because they acquired their starting left tackle, Wade Smith, in the deal.
"Draft picks have more value when you're trying to build a team than when you are a perennial winner," says Falcons general manager Rich McKay, who stockpiled picks as he was building the Bucs and then traded away picks once the Bucs became an elite team. "When you're a better team, a perennial playoff team, they lose a little value because they are lower picks by nature, and it's harder for those guys to make the team. It's harder to make those later-round picks work because there aren't as many spots open."
The Super Bowl champion Patriots have seven picks in the first four rounds of the draft and 10 overall. They had 11 picks going into the 2003 draft. They ended up selecting 10 players, nine of whom are still on the roster. Patriots vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli is unconcerned about keeping all the players the Patriots draft. Pointing to injuries and other unpredictable factors, he says, "Having too many good players never has been a problem."
Patriots coach Bill Belichick, however, has sought the counsel of former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson on the subject. Belichick says that because of a talented roster and excess picks, the Cowboys were unable to keep some players who became contributors elsewhere. "My only explanation to him is had we had injuries, those players would have been invaluable," Johnson says.
If the Patriots determine that players they would draft in the middle to late rounds this year might not make their roster or improve their team, then it would be prudent to package picks to move up -- or trade a pick this year for a pick in a higher round next year.
During the 2003 draft, the Patriots traded a third-round pick to the Dolphins (used on Smith) for a second-round pick this year. Part of the Patriots' thinking, according to Pioli, was they believed the 2004 draft would have more depth than the 2003 draft. So if they draft well this year, they could acquire a player who might be a round and a half better than the one they would have selected with their third-round pick a year ago.
Despite being a team that is driven primarily by its head coach, New England has approached its draft choices as if it is as concerned with the long-term health of the franchise as it is with winning now. That is rare. That is admirable. What the Patriots have done is the equivalent of parents investing as much in their child's college education fund as they do in the family vacation fund.
"You always have to have an infusion of young players who can contribute to keep you in good cap shape," says Pioli, who was named the Sporting News George Young NFL Executive of the Year for 2003. "If you are purely a veteran team, you won't be able to have a complete team."
Draft picks don't take up as much cap space as older players and allow teams to invest more in premium veterans. "If you are confident you can pick the right players, I think draft picks are more valuable than ever," Johnson says. "If you can hit on your second-, third-, fourth-, fifth-round picks, it enables you to build your roster with lower-salaried players rather than trying to build with higher-priced free agents."
Because the Redskins have chosen to invest heavily in veterans instead of draft picks, they could be in a crisis mode two years from now. Their payroll will be way over the salary cap, and they probably won't have enough good young players from the draft to bail them out. Coach Joe Gibbs doesn't see it that way. Gibbs says he actually is concerned the Redskins, who were the 10th-oldest team in the NFL on opening day last year with an average age of 26.7, might be too young.
Without draft picks, the Redskins will get old quickly. And so might Gibbs.
Senior writer Dan Pompei covers the NFL for Sporting News. Email him at pompei@sportingnews.com.
Updated on Monday, Apr 5, 2004 2:27 pm EDT
Another naysayer - wrap this guy in with Dr. Z and Fat Lenny...
