A theory on the Landry pick .... and skipping d line.

[Chris Luva Luva]

Hey J-La,

I'm a big fan of Redskins Insider (I post as Sheriff Gonna Getcha). I had some thoughts and stats about the Landry pick for all the people who really wanted a lineman.

Let me start off by saying that I was a huge Jamaal Anderson advocate and really wanted the Redskins to draft him (or Okoye). After we made the pick official and the reality of it set in (about 3:30am here in Sydney) I started trying to get excited about our defensive backfield and its numerous playmakers. But for some reason I couldn't let go of the idea of having a relentless pass-rushing, run-stuffing DE for our line. But then I took a look at some of our stats for the last three seasons....

The rest can be read below...

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/2007/05/another_great_guest_blog.html#more

[Gibbs' Hog]

I totally agree with that guy. Not to say that our total defense will absolutely be amazing next year, but a lot of his statements make sense to me.

I truly believe that we have a great team - on the condition that we remain mostly healthy. I'm not convinced that our backups are good enough to carry, should a couple guys go down again, but it looks like our starting group will be pretty solid.


Unfortunately, I'm a big Wiz fan too, and the two teams are eerily similar. Pretty great on the surface, but hollow once you get past it.

[BRAD44]

FINALLY!!!! Someone else who knows what the defense is all about...I've been trying to sink this in to everyones head all day... I'm right there w/ya

[brad7686]

Isn't really surprising because we didn't have a good D-line in 04 or 05 either really. So I don't expect that to change much. No doubt the LB play suffered with the loss of Pierce, and Washington being hurt some, but now that has been fixed. Obviously the secondary was horrible last year, but when both the D-line AND the lb's aren't playing well, the secondary can't play well. I'm not sold that we had to take landry because our personnel is "so bad" there because it wasn't all their fault, and we signed x amount of free agents. The QB had all day because we couldn't blitz last year. Pressure causes turnovers. That's why the DB numbers have gone down

[Chris Luva Luva]

Isn't really surprising because we didn't have a good D-line in 04 or 05 either really. So I don't expect that to change much. No doubt the LB play suffered with the loss of Pierce, and Washington being hurt some, but now that has been fixed. Obviously the secondary was horrible last year, but when both the D-line AND the lb's aren't playing well, the secondary can't play well. I'm not sold that we had to take landry because our personnel is so bad, especially since we picked up half the free agent corners and safeties.

We picked up 2 CB's and no safeties, how that equals half is beyond me...

Statwise his theory makes perfect sense and explains the coaches stance on their beliefs.

The defiencies came from the LB's and DB's while the DL remained consistent. So they bolster the two problem areas to get back to square one and in the future we can improve the DL with players whom we feel are worth it.

It's that simple.

[brad7686]

Isn't really surprising because we didn't have a good D-line in 04 or 05 either really. So I don't expect that to change much. No doubt the LB play suffered with the loss of Pierce, and Washington being hurt some, but now that has been fixed. Obviously the secondary was horrible last year, but when both the D-line AND the lb's aren't playing well, the secondary can't play well. I'm not sold that we had to take landry because our personnel is so bad, especially since we picked up half the free agent corners and safeties.

We picked up 2 CB's and no safeties, how that equals half is beyond me...

Statwise his theory makes perfect sense and explains the coaches stance on their beliefs.

The defiencies came from the LB's and DB's while the DL remained consistent. So they bolster the two problem areas to get back to square one and in the future we can improve the DL with players whom we feel are worth it.

It's that simple.

No the D-line is just consistently bad and has never been addressed. We didn't blitz as much last year because we had bad lb's and an even worse D-line. That led to a lack of turnovers. DB's don't cause turnovers, pressure does.

[Chris Luva Luva]

No the D-line is just consistently bad

Bad? no.
Mediocre? Yes.
Over achieving? Yes.
Bad? No.

and has never been addressed. Its not "consistent", unless its consistently bad.

Never? Golston? Daniels? Griffin?

Question, did you read the article?

[brad7686]

No the D-line is just consistently bad

Bad? no.
Mediocre? Yes.
Over achieving? Yes.
Bad? No.

and has never been addressed. Its not "consistent", unless its consistently bad.

Never? Golston? Daniels? Griffin?

Question, did you read the article?

Golston-6th or 7th rounder
Daniels and Griff-always injured, Daniels never a menace as a pass rusher

[brad7686]

If we had a better defensive line we wouldn't have to rely on the lb's to put up big play numbers. They could stop the run/cause more fumbles. The DB's would have more bad balls thrown right at them. Look at what baltimore does.

[Chris Luva Luva]

Golston-6th or 7th rounder
Daniels and Griff-always injured, Daniels never a menace as a pass rusher

Why does his draft status matter? He performed well for us and will be even better this year. Montgomery is said to be improving also.

We got a UFA this year who may or may not be an impact player.

Did we know they were going to be injured before we got them? If you can predict the future then you need to work for the Redskins. We could draft or sign whomever YOU deem worthy and they could become oft-injured too. It's 50/50.

One thing people need to learn is that every hole can't be FIXED IN ONE YEAR.

This article shows statistically that improving the 2ndary will help the most.

Again, did you read the article?

[Chris Luva Luva]

If we had a better defensive line we wouldn't have to rely on the lb's to put up big play numbers. They could stop the run/cause more fumbles. The DB's would have more bad balls thrown right at them. Look at what baltimore does.

I agree with you but you're missing the point.

There goal is not to fix IT ALL THIS YEAR. We had very little draft picks and statistcally and according to the coaches studies, the secondary/lb was the weakness.

They'll fix the worser of the issues this year.

They'll fix the lesser of the issues in the future.

It CAN'T ALL BE DONE AT ONCE. Not with them pissing away draft picks. They set themselves up for failure and now they're setting it right.

[brad7686]

Golston-6th or 7th rounder
Daniels and Griff-always injured, Daniels never a menace as a pass rusher

Why does his draft status matter? He performed well for us and will be even better this year. Montgomery is said to be improving also.

We got a UFA this year who may or may not be an impact player.

Did we know they were going to be injured before we got them? If you can predict the future then you need to work for the Redskins. We could draft or sign whomever YOU deem worthy and they could become oft-injured too. It's 50/50.

One thing people need to learn is that every hole can't be FIXED IN ONE YEAR.

This article shows statistically that improving the 2ndary will help the most.

Again, did you read the article?

yes i read it. The explanation to the numbers is that we did not blitz as much last year because it was ineffective. Bad linebacker/d-line play. But a good defensive line makes it so you don't HAVE to blitz lb's to make plays or cause interceptions.

[Fios]

Golston-6th or 7th rounder
Daniels and Griff-always injured, Daniels never a menace as a pass rusher

Why does his draft status matter? He performed well for us and will be even better this year. Montgomery is said to be improving also.

We got a UFA this year who may or may not be an impact player.

Did we know they were going to be injured before we got them? If you can predict the future then you need to work for the Redskins. We could draft or sign whomever YOU deem worthy and they could become oft-injured too. It's 50/50.

One thing people need to learn is that every hole can't be FIXED IN ONE YEAR.

This article shows statistically that improving the 2ndary will help the most.

Again, did you read the article?

yes i read it. The explanation to the numbers is that we did not blitz as much last year because it was ineffective. Bad linebacker/d-line play. But a good defensive line makes it so you don't HAVE to blitz lb's to make plays or cause interceptions.

Doesn't that kinda miss the point altogether? Williams DOES rely on LBs and safeties and corners to do those types of things in his scheme.

[brad7686]

Golston-6th or 7th rounder
Daniels and Griff-always injured, Daniels never a menace as a pass rusher

Why does his draft status matter? He performed well for us and will be even better this year. Montgomery is said to be improving also.

We got a UFA this year who may or may not be an impact player.

Did we know they were going to be injured before we got them? If you can predict the future then you need to work for the Redskins. We could draft or sign whomever YOU deem worthy and they could become oft-injured too. It's 50/50.

One thing people need to learn is that every hole can't be FIXED IN ONE YEAR.

This article shows statistically that improving the 2ndary will help the most.

Again, did you read the article?

yes i read it. The explanation to the numbers is that we did not blitz as much last year because it was ineffective. Bad linebacker/d-line play. But a good defensive line makes it so you don't HAVE to blitz lb's to make plays or cause interceptions.

Doesn't that kinda miss the point altogether? Williams DOES rely on LBs and safeties and corners to do those types of things in his scheme.

Well you can't blitz without good linemen either. Really you need to be strong everywhere. I think the three units all need to play well. I just don't think we have the personnel to do it on the line, where i thought we did in the secondary.

[The Hogster]

I don't think anyone is saying that we need an overhaul of the defensive line. Heck I wouldn't have even been happy drafting Jamal Anderson over Landry. With that said, one thing that is true with his numbers are that while the Secondary DIP index decreased dramatically, the Defensive Line DIP index has steadily declined.

I think that those two entities go hand in hand to a certain degree.

With that said, I don't think we need to run out and make a trade for someone's defensive end...however, the DIP numbers mirror one truth, the steady decline in DIP for the Defensive line occured in each of the last three years. In each of the last three years our D-Line has remained largely intact the only difference is our players are getting older and they are wearing down.

It's no coincidence that Daniels, Griffin, and Salevea have been the most oft injured defensive lineman and they just happen to be our oldest linemen.

So I think the message from the fans is not a repudiation of getting Landry, but wondering when we will bring in youth at this position. And if we're not going to, where we're gonna find a decent player in the next year.

Seems like some fans are more worried about our salary cap than Danny is, because getting a free agent in the future will be expensive at those positions.

We have plenty to be excited about this year. Our offense should be even better, and our defense should regain its dominance, however, one thing that even the DIP numbers can't change is that next year our players will be a year older with another year's worth of beating.....sorry but a 35-36 year old defensive line is not gonna be very effective. It happens to everyone, nothing against the player, but age is age.

[SkinsJock]

IMO we took Landry because he was the best player available - we obviously were trying to get more picks but this draft did not have the players at a level that would cause teams to really want to trade up.(Miami had to have Quinn, they were just hoping he would not go in the top 3, right?)

Selecting Landry vrs the DL "issues":
1 obviously the coaches felt that the players available at DT and DE were not worth the 6 pick
2 the coaches feel they can improve the DL by improving the play of the players who are here
3 we may still add another player who can help improve the DL play
4 this is a critical year for Williams - he is going to make this D much better.

I think we are going to be an improved team but we have to face the reality that we are not going to be a great team this year - we are trying to build this team to that level. - As we saw last year we are not playing together or agressively enough - apart from the injuries to key players, injuries are a part of this game - we are still not deep enough and so far I am glad that we have stopped giving up draft picks for players that have not worked out for us.

I am not a great believer in the draft as there are a lot of chances you take with college players and I agree with Gibbs and a lot of other coaches who value building your team with a combination of the draft, free agency and player trades.

The draft is a good news horribly bad news scenario - good because you add depth and youth horribly bad because a lot of players do not make the transition - free agency and player trades work better IMO IF you have a good GM or a good group of talent evaluators and scouts - ESPECIALLY if you only add players who will make the other players around them better.

[SkinsJock]

We will need to get much better play from our front 4 - in the NFL you can only be successful if you can constantly put pressure on the QB AND if you can do that without having to use DBs - they are much more effective when they are added to the pass rush because the other team does not know they are coming - IF we can get pressure from our front 7 and IF they are really good against the run the Williams' style of defense is much more potent - we were a predictable defense last year the "surprise" of a safety or CB blitz was almost a known factor and that is why we gave up so many 3rd and long.

[Chris Luva Luva]

This year they're just trying to get the defense back to par. With added health and experience improvement they just want the usual blitz pressure from 04 and 05.

Look towards 2008 for this team to really go after the defensve line.

[old-timer]

Yes, these stats did shed some light for me. Overall, DIPS decreased across the board, but especially for the DBs. I think the reasons are obvious: blitzing is down, and what blitzing there is, is less effective. The reasons why seem obvious to me: our DLINE is not rushing the passer effectively. This means that all the opposing team has to do is sit back in max protect and wait all day for someone to come open. Unless I was seeing things, this happened in spades all last year.

More useful stats would involve how much time opposing passers had to survey the field last year, have a cup of coffee, and play pitch and catch with whoever didn't get the ball last. Indy and N.E. did this so easily, it didn't even seem fair.

And was I the only one who noticed that on third and long, the opposing QB always looked for Kenny Wright/Mike Rumph? I hate to keep harping on this, but whose fault is it that these guys were there in the first place?

[skinsfan#33]

Look as Jansen Fan has ointed out before 'I love stats' and I think that there is something to the DIP index. However, stats can lie, or at least mislead.
Our D-line is a blue colar, not going to impress anyone type of unit. Could it use better players? Sure! Could it use some young tallent? Does the Pope poop in the woods? (wait I think I mixed that up). But the plain simple fact is it isn't that much different than in 04 and our D was rock solid then. It dropped off in 05 for 2 main reasons: Pierce and Smoot! Their replacement, while decent, weren't as good.

In 06 The secondary was a wreck. Springs wasn't healthy the whole year, Rogers has the typical sophemore slump, ST was lost without his buddy telling him what to do and tried to do too much and that leave Clarke's vacated spot that had too many issue to mention. And this is before we had 7 eleven employees playing nickle and dime.

All of the LB were hurt (except Holdman - no matter how much I wished for it). Marshall still wasn't Pierce and nicked up behind a nicked up D line he played poorly. We didn't have Arrington to bring out of GW's dog house to put Holdman on the bench. And Washington was playing about 80% healthy (at best all season).

So do I think that we have improved during the off season. Yes! Our secondary is vastly improved and can withstand an injury as long as his first name isn't Shawn (no matter how you spell it). Our LBs will be fine as long as Washington an Fletcher stay healthy. And our D-line hinges on Griff (like it always does). So as long as Springs (or Taylor to a lesser degree), Fletcher, Washington and griff stay healthy for most of the year we will be very good on D!

[1niksder]

Yes, these stats did shed some light for me. Overall, DIPS decreased across the board, but especially for the DBs. I think the reasons are obvious: blitzing is down, and what blitzing there is, is less effective. The reasons why seem obvious to me: our DLINE is not rushing the passer effectively. This means that all the opposing team has to do is sit back in max protect and wait all day for someone to come open. Unless I was seeing things, this happened in spades all last year.

Blitzing DBs only works when you have other DBs that can cover without help, you'll also need LBs that can get out into the passing lanes.

Remember Rogers missed time with a broken hand last year and Springs was missed all year so sending DBs wasn't a really option. In the end GW feel back on the Cover 2. If you have the safeties covering the deep zones and Rumph and Wright on the corners as a offensive lineman you really won't worry about any of them blitzing and would have a lot of doubt that the LBs would be come either.

Put Cover corners in the same scheme and split the coverage area between 3 of the 4 Dbs and you have a guy the can not only rush the passer but you can run-blitz too.

[old-timer]

Yes, these stats did shed some light for me. Overall, DIPS decreased across the board, but especially for the DBs. I think the reasons are obvious: blitzing is down, and what blitzing there is, is less effective. The reasons why seem obvious to me: our DLINE is not rushing the passer effectively. This means that all the opposing team has to do is sit back in max protect and wait all day for someone to come open. Unless I was seeing things, this happened in spades all last year.

Blitzing DBs only works when you have other DBs that can cover without help, you'll also need LBs that can get out into the passing lanes.

Remember Rogers missed time with a broken hand last year and Springs was missed all year so sending DBs wasn't a really option. In the end GW feel back on the Cover 2. If you have the safeties covering the deep zones and Rumph and Wright on the corners as a offensive lineman you really won't worry about any of them blitzing and would have a lot of doubt that the LBs would be come either.

Put Cover corners in the same scheme and split the coverage area between 3 of the 4 Dbs and you have a guy the can not only rush the passer but you can run-blitz too.

If you have no pass rush, the best cover guys in the world won't help you. And if the opposing team can easily handle your DLINE, that leaves plenty of his people left over to stop your blitzes. This is what I saw happening last year. Arch was a good blitzer, he just didn't have any opportunities.

Sure, you can say that with Griff back, our line will be back up to snuff, and I sure hope you're right. But we also have to hope that these key old guys like Daniels, Griff, and Salavea, and Springs, don't get any more injuries. I agree that Carter is going to be good, though. I hope we get lucky, I really do. I just don't have much faith in our management to gauge the DLINE talent, after all, one injury to Springs put Wright and Rumph in. Golston, Evans, etc may come on but are unproven.

Overall, I think without a vast improvement from last year in our pass rush, we're in big trouble again, even with a much improved secondary.

[HEROHAMO]

Good article.

Gibbs is very wise. He simply took best player available at each pick.
I have a funny feeling our defense will shoot back up to par.

I predict our run defense will be ranked 10th or no lower than that.

Our pass defense next year will improve next year dramitcally to 3rd in the league.

High hopes you know!

[everydayAskinsday]

Has anyone taken into account that reason we didnt draft a D-Lineman this year is because maybe we deem next years crop of D-Lineman to be much better and deeper then this years.. if we had tied up roster spots on the D-Line this year then next year when there might be some real depth and talent at D-Line in the draft with some players we would like to go after but arent able to because we have already invested in the D-Line... I believe our D-Line has another year or 2 left where it can be sufficent when healthy allowing us to hopefully improve the line next year

[fleetus]

Whether we agree with the decision or not, I think we need to realize that Gibbs evaluated Landry as a bteer player than Jamaal Anderson or Okoye, period. We all know that if Gibbs thought Anderson or Okoye were better players overall than Landry, he would have drafted a d-lineman. Gibbs is taking into account in depth issues related to our scheme, chemstry and character issues. Most of these intangibles are things us Joe-fans can't really judge accurately or with much depth.

So we can argue "which came first, the chicken or the egg" all day long about how turnovers are created, with coverage or QB pressure. In the end, it takes strong DL, LB and DB's to be consistently successful because by week 3 or 4, all NFL teams have game tape on you and they will exploit your weakness, wherever it may be.

Also, if we hadn't already pissed away our draft picks, we could have drafted a nice DL in the 2nd or 3rd round to provide depth and versatility in alternative packages. Guys like Lemarr Woodley, Turk McBride, Tim Crowder, Ikaika Alma-Francis, Quentin Moses, Tank Tyler and Charles Johnson all may have been very nice additions. Then we probably would not all be panicking over this D-line. Because we only had one viable pick, we are all over-scrutinizing how we used that pick. At this point, we need to sit back and trust that Gibbs will find a nice DL from the June 1st cuts and hope that improved dpeth at LB and DB will allow GW to attack again in 2007.