This is an espn insider article from today. Wish I could post the graphics, but I was struck by their matchup/advantage analysis:
QB: Jax
RB: Was
WR: Was
OL: Jax
DL: Jax
DB: Jax
LB: Jax
ST: Was
Coach: Jax
Overall: Jax
Coaching advantage Jacksonville? What??? Yeah I respect Jack Del Rio, but we have a HOF, THREE TIME SUPER BOWL WINNING COACH. Not to mention Al Saunders, Gregg Williams and the rest of that bunch.
Sorry, but we get the Coaching advantage against any team in this league. Bellicheck included. Haven't seen him win any NASCAR championships.
Here is the full article, which I hope is ok to post.
Earlier this week, our scouts filed their advance scouting report on this week's matchup between the Jaguars and Redskins. Now they're back with a second look.
• Jacksonville has the third-best defense in the NFL, allowing 249 yards per game, 190 yards passing and 59 yards rushing. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith will try and get pressure on QB Mark Brunell with just his front four and will mix in some blitzes to keep the heat on Brunell. If Smith does bring pressure look for him to bring it up the middle by attacking the A gaps with linebackers Mike Peterson and Daryl Smith or Nick Greisen. Gut pressure will force Brunell to get rid of the ball quickly or risk taking a hit.
Portis• Redskins running back Clinton Portis is going to find little daylight to run this week. The Jaguars have held all three of their opponents to under 100 yards this year. Jaguars DTs Marcus Stroud and John Henderson are two big bodies who require the guards to stay on them longer, giving freedom of action to the Jags' linebackers.
Look for the Jaguars to start the game by playing a soft run defense to dare the Redskins to run the ball outside, forcing Portis to run lateral. If they cannot stop the run with seven in the box, then they will bring strong safety Donovin Darius down for run support. The Jaguars need to shut down Portis and make the Redskins one dimensional.
• The Redskins need to keep drives going by converting on third down. They are converting 37.5 percent of their third downs, while Jacksonville's defense has an third-down efficiency rating of 36.6 percent. The one down and distance the Redskins need to improve on is third and short. Offensive coordinator Al Saunders will put WR Santana Moss or Antwaan Randle El in the slot to work on Jaguars nickel back Terry Cousin. If the Jaguars double the slot receiver in man-to-man situations, then Brunell needs to get the ball to Chrisey on option routes.
• Jacksonville offensive coordinator Carl Smith likes to run a three-wide receiver personnel group that spreads defenses out. Smith wants to establish the run to set up play-action pass to throw the ball deep against a Redskins secondary that has given up 11 passes over 20 yards, including two for touchdowns.
Byron Leftwich has not had a lot of success throwing deep, completing only five passes over 20 yards, but he could pad his stats this week. Redskins corners Kenny Wright, Carlos Rogers and Mike Rumph are going to get tested; fortunately for them they all match up speed-wise with the Jaguars' receivers.
• The Redskins' offense needs to repeat the success it had last week by using a balanced game plan that gives Brunell short, quick passes. Saunders need to keep using the wide receiver bubble screen this week to wear out Jacksonville's massive DTs by making them case the ball. Also, Saunders must try and run the football outside and keep Portis' injured shoulder away from the pounding inside.
• Redskins defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have to balance his pressure package with giving help to his secondary, a group that is giving up 217 yards passing a game. The defense has not been getting the pressure it needs with a four-man rush (only three sacks this season.) Williams has had success in the past attacking the type of zone protection scheme the Jaguars use. Look for Williams to bring pressure on Leftwich on passing downs, trying to get him to throw early and into coverage.
Special Teams
Teams that have good defenses usually have good special teams, but that is not the case with the Jaguars. Punter Chris Hanson ranks 30th with a net average of just 33.4 yards. The good news is that Hanson has pinned teams inside their own 20-yard line six times with only three touchbacks. Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio likes to play the field position game. The Jags have a dangerous kickoff returner in running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who is averaging 26 yards. Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee missed two field goals last week in Indy.
The Redskins have the second-ranked kickoff return unit in the league with a 28-yard return average. Rock Cartwright and Ladell Betts both have the ability for big returns. Cartwright, the main returner, has a 100-yard return for a touchdown to his credit. In a game that could be about field position, Redskins punter Derrick Frost has a net punt average of over 40 yards, but has only two punts inside opponents' 20-yard line.
Matchups
• Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich vs. Redskins FS Sean Taylor
• Redskins TE Chris
• Redskins RB Clinton Portis vs. Jaguars linebackers
• Jaguars DT Marcus Stroud vs. Redskins LOG Derrick Dockery
• Redskins WR Santana Moss vs. Jaguars CB Brian Williams
Scouts' Edge
The Redskins are coming off a confidence-boosting win in Houston, where they finally found their offensive rhythm. The Redskins' offense will have to hit on all cylinders this weekend to have any hopes of moving the ball against Jacksonville's tough defense. The Jags, after losing a tough game to the Colts last week, are looking to their anger out on the Redskins. Jacksonville's offense should be able to move the ball through the air against a porous Redskins secondary.
Prediction: Jaguars 20, Redskins 10
