Voting Preferences?

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Gibbs' Hog
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Voting Preferences?

Post by Gibbs' Hog »

Actually, the first thought that came into my mind was to ask if anyone could possibly determine why Virginia voters usually seem to be more republican-based, and Maryland tends to be more democratic-based? It seems interesting to me, as both states hug D.C., which has obviously different voting preferences than the rest of the country.


Anyway, the point of this thread was to highlight the following article which I found interesting...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A baby face may win hearts but it doesn't win votes, U.S. researchers said on Thursday.

Students picked the winning U.S. congressional candidate nearly 70 percent of the time merely by glancing at their photos and deciding which one looked more competent, they said.

"This remarkable effect ... likely reflects differences in 'babyfacedness,'" Leslie Zebrowitz of Brandeis University and Joann Montepare of Emerson College, both in Massachusetts, wrote in a commentary.

For their study, Alexander Todorov and colleagues at Princeton University showed pairs of photographs of real candidates for Congress, winners and losers, to more than 800 students.

They asked them to choose the candidate they thought had won or would win, and asked them why. On average, the volunteers looked at each pair of photos for one second.

The students chose correctly 68.8 percent of the time, Todorov and colleagues report in this week's issue of the journal Science.

"In one of our studies, 143 participants were asked to rate the importance of 13 different traits in considering a person for public office. These traits included competence, trustworthiness, likability, and 10 additional traits," the researchers said.

"Competence was rated as the most important trait."

And the students correctly chose the winner based on how competent he or she looked in 71.6 percent of the Senate races and in 66.8 percent of the House of Representatives races.

Zebrowitz, who wrote a book entitled "Reading Faces: Window to the Soul?," and Montepare said it boils down to having a baby face.

"A more babyfaced individual is perceived as less competent than a more mature-faced, but equally attractive, peer of the same age and sex," they wrote.

YES, WE ARE SHALLOW

"Although we like to believe that we 'don't judge a book by its cover,' superficial appearance qualities such as babyfacedness profoundly affect human behavior in the blink of an eye."

Zebrowitz said different cultures generally agree on what gives a person a baby face -- a round face, large eyes, small nose, high forehead and small chin.

"The data we have suggest that we're not necessarily electing better leaders -- people who are actually more competent, though we are electing people who look the part," she said in a statement.

Todorov agreed.

"Our findings have challenging implications for the rationality of voting preferences, adding to other findings that consequential decisions can be more 'shallow' than we would like to believe," he wrote.

Todorov's team said they took into account possible other factors in their study, and ruled them out.

"We also ruled out the possibility that the age, attractiveness, and/or familiarity with the faces of the candidates could account for the relation between inferences of competence and election outcomes," they wrote.

"For example, older candidates can be judged as more competent and be more likely to win. Similarly, more attractive candidates can be judged more favorably and be more likely to win."

"As Darwin recollected in his autobiography, he was almost denied the chance to take the historic Beagle voyage -- the one that enabled the main observations of his theory of evolution -- on account of his nose," the researchers concluded.

"Apparently, the captain did not believe that a person with such a nose would 'possess sufficient energy and determination.'"



http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/oukoe_science_candidates;_ylt=ApPaJUpgiVWKhRoq1z3epX0EtbAF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
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Post by The Hogster »

Virginia was the capital of the Confederacy way back when.

More US presidents have come from Virginia, than any other state, and if you look at the original version of the Constitution, Virginia was reserved more electoral votes (9) than any other state even though it was not the most populous. Virginia is historically traditionalist and conservative.

Virginia is the south, and much of Virginia outside of the Tidewater, Richmond, and Norther VA areas are suburban to rural, farms, and are old style, christian and predominantly white.

Im from Norfolk Virginia where the makeup pretty diverse,and the local representatives are often Democrats, but as a state, Virginia has not voted to elect a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson.

Clinton managed to win North Carolina in his second term. Gore couldn't even carry Tennessee, his home state. The entire south, and not just Virginia is mostly republican.

From DC, and up there tends to be more religious, and racial diversity and more liberalism and democratic principles.
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Post by skins#1fan »

Great post...you are absolutely right. Virginia is a southern state with mostly traditionalists like the rest of the south. It is going to be very hard for a democrat to be elected without carrying a few southern states. I personaly dont see them carrying any of those states anytime soon because the south tends to be very traditional and is big on the moral and value type issues. With the way the left has been kinda all over the place the past few years with certain issues such as abortion/gay marriage and trying to get god out of the Pledge of Alegiance ect I dont see them convincing many of those states. It is definitely possible to win without carrying any but it makes it extremely difficult as you have seen in these past 2 elections.
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Post by curveball »

It's a much easier concept to grasp. The difference in Maryland v. Virginia voting patterns is more easily explained by looking at the demographics of the two states. Rural voters tend to lean GOP, Urban ones DEM.

Urban Baltimore voters make up a higher percentage of the Maryland electorate than anything in Va. It's that simple looking at voter breakdown by county.
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Post by welch »

Virginia was always solidly Democratic, run by the Byrd Machine (Senator Harry Byrd) for many, many years.

They were so quirky that they objected to naming a new highway after John Singleton Mosby, when "The Grey Ghost" was a hit TV program in about 1960. At the last minute, a dim-bulb went off in someone's pseudo-brain down in Richmond. "Hold it", they said. "Mosby turned traitor and became a Republican after the War".

Harry Byrd wanted to maintain racial segration by what he called "massive resistance". One county in southern Virginia, Prince George, even closed it's public schools rather than follow court order and the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

After about 1968, the Virginia Democratic Party machine flip-flopped to become the Virginia Republicans of today.

Why was Maryland different? There were battles over civil rights in Maryland as well, but Montgomery County and Baltimore (and, somewhat, PG County) acted as a balance to the Eastern Shore, Charles, and St Mary's counties. During the '50s, Maryland voted independently for president, but the state had lots of FDR/Truman Democrats.

[Historical note, in case people are not Civil War buffs: John Mosby was an anti-secessionist lawyer who disliked slavery, a member of the Whig Party and then the Union Party, who became Jeb Stuart's great scout, and then led an independent company of raiders roughly between Manassas and Culpeper. It was called "Mosby's Confederacy".

During Sheridan's Shenadoah Campaign in 1864, an incompetent, egomaniacal US cavalry generl named George Custer became so frustrated trying to catch Mosby that he hanged some of Mosby's men. Mosby then hanged an equal number of Custer's men. Custer was about to increase the number of prisoners he would hang when Sheridan stepped in, saying, You started this, you idiot. Now stop.

After the war, Mosby was specifically excluded from the general pardon. He rode to Washington, met with General Grant, and Grant pardoned him.

Later, Mosby joined the Republican Party, and, I think, at some point was the US ambassador to Great Britain.

The Byrd Democrats considered this treason, and refused to recognize Mosby...even 100 years later.]
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Post by cvillehog »

Voting by county: (pure red is Republican, pure blue is Democrat, with shades of purple in between)
Image
Source: http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/
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Post by Gibbs' Hog »

That's pretty interesting...

It almost seems misleading because, from that diagram, the reps and dems look pretty spread out among the state.
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Post by welch »

It almost seems misleading because, from that diagram, the reps and dems look pretty spread out among the state


You've spotted it. The map does not show population density. Montgomery and PG Counties show blue, but they are no larger than some counties near Hagerstown, or even farther west, that have fewer people...or used to, when I was growing up.
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Post by cvillehog »

welch wrote:
It almost seems misleading because, from that diagram, the reps and dems look pretty spread out among the state


You've spotted it. The map does not show population density. Montgomery and PG Counties show blue, but they are no larger than some counties near Hagerstown, or even farther west, that have fewer people...or used to, when I was growing up.


Actually, the source page does show population density, but not in a fashion that I could crop easily to show here. Also, the map is apparently somewhat misleading, since the human eye apparently favors red over blue. (According to this site: http://homepage.mac.com/tcp/PurpleAmerica/)

I split out the red channel from the above picture. In this B&W version, pure red shows as white, and pure blue as black.

Image
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Post by Gibbs' Hog »

:hmm:


All I see is gray... :lol:



And I guess the Atlantic Ocean voted heavily for Bush! :lol:
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Post by cvillehog »

Gibbs' Hog wrote::hmm:


All I see is gray... :lol:

I think that's supposed to be the point. :)



And I guess the Atlantic Ocean voted heavily for Bush! :lol:


I guess so!

(Seriously, though, when you take just one color channel of an image, white comes across as white, and black as black.)
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Post by crazyhorse1 »

As a loyal Virginian, I can tell you, purely and simply, that Virginia switched from the Democratic column to the Republican column because of the Democrats stand on civil rights in the fifties and sixties, when the word conservative became a euphemism for racist or intergrationist.If racists or die hard integrationists were expunged from the voting roles, Virginia would vote Demo by eight or nine percentage points. My fellow Virginians might hasten to deny this, but it's true. I have friends who are still ticked off we didn't have a prom back in 61 for fear that a black might attend.
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