Playoff Chances

Redskins4Life · Post by **Redskins4Life** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 6:07 pm

Although its extremely unlikely that we will make the playoffs, we are still technically alive. I've just gotten done looking at todays NFC matchups and it seems most of the teams who are vying for one of the playoff spots have lost. We are tied with more than a few teams at 5-9 however we have a more favorable schedule compared to these guys. It seems that Minnesotas about to clinch a playoff spot, but other than that, our only competition is St.Louis or Seattle who have both lost 7 games (St.Louis hasnt finished their game but if they lose they will have lost 8 for the year). So for all you statistical gurus, etc., can any of you guys tell me what our chances are to make the playoffs assuming we win out and what teams need to lose for us to make the playoffs?

hkHog · Post by **hkHog** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 6:22 pm

Wow, that'll take some time but I'll see what I can do tonight after all the NFC games have been played. The only reasonably easy way to do it though would be if one were to assume that every game was a 50/50 chance for every team but that's probably not the case. Maybe one can use the records of the teams that are playing to decide the odds in individual games? Then again, any given Sunday. Whatever, I'll probably give up pretty quickly unless I remember how to use my Stats software.

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 6:24 pm

We need the Seattle to lose their next two OR the St. Louis to lose to the Cards and Eagles. The Saints need to win today and Tampa Bay needs to beat Carolina next week.

JPM36 · Post by **JPM36** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 6:42 pm

I've given this a lot of thought and I think this is a way we could get in:

1. Win our final two games and finish 7-9

2. Now it gets a little confusing. Here's a poential scenario that gets us in:

- New Orleans, W TB L Atl L Car Finish 6-10

- Carolina L TB W NO Finish 7-9

- Tampa Bay L NO W Car L Ari Finish 6-10

- Dallas L Wash L NYG Finish 6-10

- St. Louis L Ari L Phi L NYJ Finish 6-10

- Arizona W Stl L Sea W TB Finish 6-10

Even if Chicago and Detroit both won their last two games the best they could do is finish 7-9 and if we were 7-9 we'd be ahead of them since we beat them both straight up we'd get in over them, so they don't matter really. We also hold a tiebreaker over the Bucs so we'd get in over them.

At this point I think it would come down to a tie between us and Carolina. I do not know this for a fact but I believe that since we did not play them head-to-head and they are not in our division, the tiebreaker would be coference record. Based on the above projections our NFC record would be 7-5 and Carolina's would be 6-6. This is just one possibility, I'm sure there are other scenarios out there. The bottom line is we need to win out and get a TONNNNNN of help.

Hail to the Redskins!

SKINS4LIFE · Post by **SKINS4LIFE** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 8:30 pm

Anybody notice that with the exception of the Minnesota game, were batting a thousand on our playoff possibilities this weekend.

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Sun Dec 19, 2004 9:24 pm

SKINS4LIFE wrote:Anybody notice that with the exception of the Minnesota game, were batting a thousand on our playoff possibilities this weekend.

Yeah that cut the odds of making it now we can't catch them. But we still have a shot....

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