The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

Aug. 29, 2004. 01:00 AM
Online bettors sending mixed signals

LISA FRIEDMAN
SPECIAL TO THE STAR

Just how likely is George W. Bush to win the 2004 presidential election?

More than four times as likely as Osama bin Laden being captured next month, but slightly less than Michael Jackson's chances of being convicted of child molestation.

If, that is, you play the political futures markets or place bets at one of the myriad of online political gambling sites.

In a trend that's giving new meaning to the term "political horse race," gaming executives say political bettors have plunked down more than $500 million (U.S.) trying to predict the outcome of the Nov. 2 election.

"The closer we are getting to the election date, the more people are betting on it," says Gregor Weiss, bet manager at Intertops.com, an offshore gaming company that is taking betting action on Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry.

University of Southern California political scientist Sherry Bebitch Jeffe says political bettors like the risk. "And it's a way of articulating their support. It's almost a pre-vote vote."

If that's true, online political wagers underscore a wildly divided public opinion.

At Bodog.com, Bush is favoured to win, at 130 to Kerry's 110.

That means a bettor must wager $130 to win $100 if Bush wins, and $110 to win $100 in the event of a Kerry win.

But at Intertops.com, Kerry has a slight lead at 1.74 to Bush's 1.87 odds.

At Intrade.com, which as a futures market works slightly differently, Bush's stock is trading at 52, while Kerry's is at 48.

Although Bush maintains the edge, his stock has fallen since the beginning of the year, when he was trading at 75.

The trading in "contracts" is based on a series of propositions that can have one of only two outcomes.

For instance: Bush will be re-elected in November. If that proves true, the closing price will be 100 and if not, zero. Each point on the Intrade.com index costs 10 cents, so one Bush share currently costs $5.20.

Contracts on pop star Jackson being convicted of at least one of seven counts are trading at 65 and those calling for bin Laden being captured in September are trading at a paltry 12.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is currently examining potential regulations on futures markets, though none now exists.

So, just how accurate a predictor are the bets?

Ray Fair, the Yale economist whose economic model predicts Bush will win with 57.7 per cent of major-party votes, calls political gambling "a cute and interesting thing to look at."

Sites like Intrade.com, he says, reflect all the current information about candidates and are better snapshots of current public opinion than they are predictors of the final outcome.

Trying to predict presidential elections has become a national sport.

Some base it on economics, others maintain that America does not change leaders in wartime. One study found that the taller candidate has, over the past half-century, won the presidency 10 of 13 times.

The rise and fall of women's hemlines also is a time-tested barometer, with short hemlines corresponding to a Democratic win and longer skirts meaning the GOP has a leg up in reaching the White House.

Yet another study found that the last home game played by the NFL's Washington Redskins has perfectly predicted the presidential race result in the last 15 years: A Redskins win equals a win for the incumbent and a win for the visiting team equals a win for the challenger.

The Redskins lost their last home game to the Philadelphia Eagles, 31-7, portending a Kerry victory.

Los Angeles Daily News