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Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 9:46 am
by riggofan
Speaking of. Here's an ESPN insider piece today of early 2016 projections.
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.6 mean wins, SOS: 30)
2. New York Giants: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 17)
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 11)
4. Washington Redskins: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins, SOS: 9)
Without Tony Romo, the Cowboys finished 31st last year in offensive DVOA, suffering one of the 10 largest year-to-year drops in offensive DVOA since 1989. With Romo back and a healthier Dez Bryant on the field, they're almost guaranteed to rebound in 2016. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense ended just 6.0 percent of opposing drives with takeaways last season. That was dead last in the NFL and the fourth-lowest rate of any team since 1998. There's a lot of year-to-year regression in turnovers, so there's a strong chance that improves in 2016. (In 2014, the lowest teams in this stat were the Jets and Chiefs, who both turned their defenses around significantly in 2015.)
Forecasting that Dallas will return to winning is probably less controversial than forecasting that Washington will return to losing. However, Washington isn't exactly starting from greatness. Washington won a bad division at 9-7, but ranked only 15th in DVOA. That was a big improvement over the previous two seasons, when Washington was 29th (2013) and 28th (2014) in DVOA. But this means they're likely to run into the "Plexiglass Principle," which states that teams that significantly improve one year will tend to decline the next year and vice versa. In particular, the defense is unlikely to keep up its turnover rate (15.1 percent of drives, fifth in the NFL) or ability to stop short-yardage runs (49 percent conversions, the best figure in the NFL). The addition of Josh Norman is somewhat blunted by the losses of veteran defensive linemen Jason Hatcher and Terrance Knighton.
The Redskins recently made Josh Norman the NFL's highest-paid cornerback. Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP
There are a lot of reasons to believe the Giants will improve on defense: overall trends suggest a rebound after two straight years of decline, and the defensive line in particular should improve with the additions of Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison. But the offense has to overcome an inexperienced line with questionable depth and the loss of starting receiver Rueben Randle. A lot depends on whether Victor Cruz is finally healthy enough to play and what the Giants can expect out of him.
Our projections are also down on the Eagles. Their offensive DVOA dropped from 13th to 26th last year, but the expected rebound is somewhat blunted by the fact that our system penalizes offenses that are learning a new system from new coaches. The defense has to replace four regular starters.
Re: Captain Kirk Makes Top 100
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 9:54 am
by Deadskins
riggofan wrote:Speaking of. Here's an ESPN insider piece today of early 2016 projections.
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.6 mean wins, SOS: 30)
2. New York Giants: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 17)
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins, SOS: 11)
4. Washington Redskins: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins, SOS: 9)
Without Tony Romo, the Cowboys finished 31st last year in offensive DVOA, suffering one of the 10 largest year-to-year drops in offensive DVOA since 1989. With Romo back and a healthier Dez Bryant on the field, they're almost guaranteed to rebound in 2016. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense ended just 6.0 percent of opposing drives with takeaways last season. That was dead last in the NFL and the fourth-lowest rate of any team since 1998. There's a lot of year-to-year regression in turnovers, so there's a strong chance that improves in 2016. (In 2014, the lowest teams in this stat were the Jets and Chiefs, who both turned their defenses around significantly in 2015.)
Forecasting that Dallas will return to winning is probably less controversial than forecasting that Washington will return to losing. However, Washington isn't exactly starting from greatness. Washington won a bad division at 9-7, but ranked only 15th in DVOA. That was a big improvement over the previous two seasons, when Washington was 29th (2013) and 28th (2014) in DVOA. But this means they're likely to run into the "Plexiglass Principle," which states that teams that significantly improve one year will tend to decline the next year and vice versa. In particular, the defense is unlikely to keep up its turnover rate (15.1 percent of drives, fifth in the NFL) or ability to stop short-yardage runs (49 percent conversions, the best figure in the NFL). The addition of Josh Norman is somewhat blunted by the losses of veteran defensive linemen Jason Hatcher and Terrance Knighton.
The Redskins recently made Josh Norman the NFL's highest-paid cornerback. Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP
There are a lot of reasons to believe the Giants will improve on defense: overall trends suggest a rebound after two straight years of decline, and the defensive line in particular should improve with the additions of Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison. But the offense has to overcome an inexperienced line with questionable depth and the loss of starting receiver Rueben Randle. A lot depends on whether Victor Cruz is finally healthy enough to play and what the Giants can expect out of him.
Our projections are also down on the Eagles. Their offensive DVOA dropped from 13th to 26th last year, but the expected rebound is somewhat blunted by the fact that our system penalizes offenses that are learning a new system from new coaches. The defense has to replace four regular starters.
God, these guys are so predictable. Every year it's Dallas will win the division and the Redskins will be in the cellar. Wake me up when the season starts.
Re: Captain Kirk Makes Top 100
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 1:24 pm
by oj
The 'Plexiglass Principle?' Huh? where do they come up with this ?
Re: Captain Kirk Makes Top 100
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 1:29 pm
by Burgundy&GoldForever
Deadskins wrote:God, these guys are so predictable. Every year it's Dallas will win the division and the Redskins will be in the cellar. Wake me up when the season starts.
They wrote a lot of nonsense but all they really did was rank the teams in order based on strength of schedule. Someone at ESPN gets paid to do that.
Re: Captain Kirk Makes Top 100
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 2:59 pm
by riggofan
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:Deadskins wrote:God, these guys are so predictable. Every year it's Dallas will win the division and the Redskins will be in the cellar. Wake me up when the season starts.
They wrote a lot of nonsense but all they really did was rank the teams in order based on strength of schedule. Someone at ESPN gets paid to do that.
Its just the same thing every year. These guys come up with the most superficial BS in their predictions and rankings.
Really hard to say for sure how the season might play out. A couple of things I feel certain about though:
1) Our roster is better than it was last year.
2) Our secondary looks WAY better than it was last year.
3) Our starting QB is going to start the season better prepared and with more experience than last year.
4) Our offensive line was mostly young and inexperienced last year. I expect them to be improved this year.
Around the division I would add these things:
1) I expect Dallas to be better. They have an elite o-line and may have added the best RB in the draft.
2) I think the Giants are still a mediocre team with problems on both d-line and o-line and won't have Tom Coughlin to bail them out.
3) Eagles have a new coach, a bunch of QB drama and still have to recover from the mess Chip Kelly made of that roster.
Re: Captain Kirk Makes Top 100
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 3:41 pm
by Irn-Bru
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:Deadskins wrote:God, these guys are so predictable. Every year it's Dallas will win the division and the Redskins will be in the cellar. Wake me up when the season starts.
They wrote a lot of nonsense but all they really did was rank the teams in order based on strength of schedule. Someone at ESPN gets paid to do that.
I believe this ranking came from Football Outsiders, which uses a fair amount of advanced stats / analytics work to come up with their content. This isn't just a group of talking heads deciding that the Redskins got lucky or whatever.
That said, I'm a little surprised that we ranked as low as we did. We were 15th in DVOA (basically their overall measurement for how good a team is) but were at the end of the regular season 12th in weighted DVOA, which gives greater weight to how a team performed recently versus weighting every week of the year equally. So we were an up-and-coming team, and I think the question is whether the "real" Redskins are the team we saw during the first eight weeks of the season or the last eight.
That will, in large part, come down to whether Kirk is the real deal, I think. Most Skins fans think he is and that the second half of the season showed our true selves more than the first half, which is easily explained because Cousins didn't benefit from being the starter for the whole offseason and it took time for the team to figure out how best to use him and for him to settle into the starting role.
FO's own player measurement suggests that we have good reason to think Cousins is the real deal. Despite have some struggles early on, he
finished as the 7th ranked QB by their metric, which is called DYAR. That's a compiling stat, not an average, so the more you play and the more you produce the higher your absolute total will be. So again, the fact that Cousins finished that high despite some early struggles says that he was doing really, really well down the stretch.
Another reason they might be underestimating the Skins is that we suffered from the
2nd worst injury luck last year, a stat that takes into account things like whether you lost a starter versus a random backup. It was a worse season for us from that perspective than it was for the Patriots and Ravens, and in their analysis of the Ravens FO points to better injury luck as one reason
the Ravens will do well this year.
So, I'm still hopeful that we'll beat predictions like these. A lot of it depends on Cousins, but that's a bet I'd take.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 4:19 pm
by grampi
Dallas will end up in the basement again...Blomo will take a hit early and reinjure his shoulder or his back and he'll be done for the season, and maybe for good.
Re: Captain Kirk Makes Top 100
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 4:32 pm
by Burgundy&GoldForever
Irn-Bru wrote:I believe this ranking came from Football Outsiders, which uses a fair amount of advanced stats / analytics work to come up with their content. This isn't just a group of talking heads deciding that the Redskins got lucky or whatever. So, I'm still hopeful that we'll beat predictions like these. A lot of it depends on Cousins, but that's a bet I'd take.
It makes slightly more sense when the data came from FO. At least then it has some credibility. I think the most telling point of the entire piece (at least what was posted here) is not related to Kirk Cousins:
the defense is unlikely to keep up its turnover rate (15.1 percent of drives, fifth in the NFL) or ability to stop short-yardage runs (49 percent conversions, the best figure in the NFL)
The rushing defense may have been an unmitigated disaster on 1st downs in particular, giving up 5 yards per carry, but it stopped teams when it mattered most, on 3rd downs and goal line stands. I think the loss of Knighton is bigger than we're being led to believe.
Related to Cousins: He will have the full off-season to work with the receivers, a "luxury" he did not have last season. He will have multiple red zone weapons over 6'0" tall, a luxury he did not have last season. He will presumably have a better rushing attack to balance out the passing defense, something he did not have last season. He will have a better center. The offensive line will have worked together for a longer amount of time. Lauvao is back healthy. Statistics, no matter how detailed, cannot account for any of those improvements.
I'd also bet on Cousins to exceed the pundits' expectations but not necessarily based strictly upon quantifiable and qualifiable data. He just seems to have that intangible factor so many Redskins quarterbacks have not had over the last twenty-five years. I believe the team thinks so too. The players have bought into Kirk Cousins. Now it's the team's turn.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 6:06 pm
by OldSchool
It is entirely possible the 2016 Redskins will be improved over the 2015 Redskins but will not be able to match the 9-7 record but barring an injury impaired season like Dallas experience last year I cannot envision a 6-10 year. The Skins had a poor rushing season last year and I don't know why we should expect major improvement this season. The defense was poor last season. We lost a couple of DL to FA and the Skins are bringing in a lot defensive backs, is this going help? Let's hope.
I think the 2016 Skins are going to be overly dependent on their passing attack much like the 2017. I think Kirk and company will be very good again barring injuries but will the rest of the team be improved and if improved will it be enough to offset expected improvements in Dallas and NY? I don't know but 6-10 looks outside of my confidence interval of 7-9 to 10-6, Not radically out of line but unlikely in my view.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Thu May 12, 2016 10:34 pm
by KILO
And what was their prediction for last year? What happened there?
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 8:10 am
by grampi
OldSchool wrote:The Skins had a poor rushing season last year and I don't know why we should expect major improvement this season.
Yeah, what was up with Morris last year? He just didn't seem to be himself. Was it him or the O-line?
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Fri May 13, 2016 10:01 am
by riggofan
Great points about the rushing attack. Seems like that needs to be a top priority this offseason.
I do expect the o-line to be improved this season. Those are mostly young guys coming in with a year of experience, a year of working together, and being coached by Callahan. I'm just optimistic about that.
I also think it will be good if we go into the season with a clearly defined #1 RB. The bouncing around between Jones and Alf last year, just never seemed wise to me.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Sun May 15, 2016 5:41 pm
by OldSchool
grampi wrote:OldSchool wrote:The Skins had a poor rushing season last year and I don't know why we should expect major improvement this season.
Yeah, what was up with Morris last year? He just didn't seem to be himself. Was it him or the O-line?
I don't know if it was the OL or if Alfred is a better fit for the zone blocking scheme the Shannys ran. Jones looked better until he lost the handle but the rushing attack wasn't strong in any case and I don't know why we should expect it to be better this year.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Sun May 15, 2016 7:34 pm
by DarthMonk
OldSchool wrote:grampi wrote:OldSchool wrote:The Skins had a poor rushing season last year and I don't know why we should expect major improvement this season.
Yeah, what was up with Morris last year? He just didn't seem to be himself. Was it him or the O-line?
I don't know if it was the OL or if Alfred is a better fit for the zone blocking scheme the Shannys ran. Jones looked better until he lost the handle but the rushing attack wasn't strong in any case and
I don't know why we should expect it to be better this year.
I do.
We will be starting a QB who has a full season and camp behind him as the entrenched #1. This will help all aspects of our team including the run game.
We will be starting a RT who has a full season and camp behind him as the entrenched #1. Right next to him is a 2nd year RG who should get better and better. These two guys working in tandem for a 2nd year should help the run game.
I'm pretty sure we will be better at LG and C than we were after Lavao and Licht went down. This should help the run game.
Trent.
Year 2 of Callahan.
If we remain fairly healthy and our run game does not improve I'd be pretty disappointed.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 10:15 am
by Burgundy&GoldForever
DarthMonk wrote:OldSchool wrote:I do.
We will be starting a QB who has a full season and camp behind him as the entrenched #1. This will help all aspects of our team including the run game.
We will be starting a RT who has a full season and camp behind him as the entrenched #1. Right next to him is a 2nd year RG who should get better and better. These two guys working in tandem for a 2nd year should help the run game.
I'm pretty sure we will be better at LG and C than we were after Lavao and Licht went down. This should help the run game.
Trent.
Year 2 of Callahan.
If we remain fairly healthy and our run game does not improve I'd be pretty disappointed.
All else aside, I'd suggest the simple replacement of LeRibeus with someone who knows the snap counts and should actually be in the NFL will make a huge difference in run blocking.
Also, the team has a couple of massive linemen who should make the roster as backups in Takoby Cofield and Cody Booth. There's some video floating around of Booth pushing the team blocking sled by himself.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 10:54 am
by riggofan
They've been talking a lot about Austin Reiter the past few days. Doubt he'll jump into the starting lineup, but could be replacing LeRib as the backup.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 1:52 pm
by markshark84
On paper, we have a VERY tough schedule. I see the likelihood high to:
Win: CLE, PHI, NYG, @PHI, @CHI, @BAL
Toss ups: @DET, DAL, @DAL, @NYG, MINN
Lose: PITT, GB, @AZ, CAR, @CINCY
That being said, our first 3 are against PITT, DAL, and @NYG (a place we historically don't play well). We'll need to win one of these games and our next 3 to stay on track for the playoffs. We need at least 4 wins as our next 6 are BRUTAL --- @DET, @CINCY, BYE, MINN, GB, @DAL, and @AZ. We'll need to go at least 2-4 in that stretch and then win 3 of our last 4 (@PHI, CAR, @CHI, NYG) --- which is doable.
This all being said --- I am VERY confident that none of this will be the case by week 2. Teams and their ability to win changes FAST. Some of the teams in the BRUTAL 6 may be weak by then (and perhaps not). That is why all preseason "predictions" are meaningless. So much changes from one season to the next that it is nearly impossible to accurately determine outcomes.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 2:13 pm
by DarthMonk
^^^ Not as impressed with Detroit or Minnesota as you are but like you said - things change FAST.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 2:49 pm
by riggofan
markshark84 wrote:We'll need to go at least 2-4 in that stretch and then win 3 of our last 4 (@PHI, CAR, @CHI, NYG) --- which is doable.
I remember Gruden talking last year about dividing the season up into quarters. Four quarters, aiming to win 3 games in each quarter. You can win 2 in two of those quarters and make the playoffs most of the time.
q1: Steelers, Pukes, Giants, Browns - win 2
q2: Ravens, Eagles, Lions, Bengals - win 3
q3: Vikes, Packers, Pukes, Cards - win 2
q4: Eagles, Panthers, Bears, Giants - win 3
finish 10-6
Not that everything would line up exactly like that, but I like the approach. Just seems less daunting. Also good for those of us who tend to overreact to every game. (Not that that applies to anyone around here.)
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 2:52 pm
by Burgundy&GoldForever
riggofan wrote:They've been talking a lot about Austin Reiter the past few days. Doubt he'll jump into the starting lineup, but could be replacing LeRib as the backup.
A tackling dummy would be an improvement over LeRibeus. A healthy Lichtensteiger certainly will be, even if he is a bit long in the tooth compared with the other linemen.
I have to believe LeRibeus is not going to survive cuts. He has no business being in the NFL. He's absolutely terrible at run blocking and only passable in pass blocking because of the scheme.
If Cousins had been taking a lot of five or seven step drops and more than a three count before releasing the football last season he'd have been getting sacked a lot from the middle of the line.
Fortunately, after he looked pretty bad giving up five sacks (the most of any Skins offensive lineman) in the first few weeks of the season, Moses gave up none in the last several weeks. Corner turned.
Not at all worried about Scherff. He's a beast. Now with a full year of experience.
Long or Lauvao? Lauvao was playing well before the injury but Long is bigger and younger and cheaper. Lauvao costs $5MM but his dead cap is only $2MM. Long only costs $853.5k this season.
They have two backups in Takoby Cofield and Cody Booth. Scot McCloughan type guys. Huge. Mean. Young. Cheap.
I'll be curious to see the final roster but it has to be a marked improvement over last season in terms of run blocking.
The other thing that will help is Vernon Davis. Better tight end blocking means not having to use an extra lineman.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Mon May 16, 2016 9:25 pm
by SkinsJock
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Tue May 17, 2016 10:48 am
by riggofan
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:riggofan wrote:They've been talking a lot about Austin Reiter the past few days. Doubt he'll jump into the starting lineup, but could be replacing LeRib as the backup.
A tackling dummy would be an improvement over LeRibeus. A healthy Lichtensteiger certainly will be, even if he is a bit long in the tooth compared with the other linemen.
I have to believe LeRibeus is not going to survive cuts. He has no business being in the NFL. He's absolutely terrible at run blocking and only passable in pass blocking because of the scheme.
Honestly I was shocked he survived the cuts last year. Who knows? I'm sure you're right about Lichtensteiger, but I'm really hoping one of the younger, bigger guys pushes him out of the lineup. Just never been sold, and I don't see that he really fits in the new scheme.
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:The other thing that will help is Vernon Davis. Better tight end blocking means not having to use an extra lineman.
I want to see Davis beat out Niles Paul in the lineup first.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Tue May 17, 2016 11:10 am
by Burgundy&GoldForever
riggofan wrote:Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:riggofan wrote:They've been talking a lot about Austin Reiter the past few days. Doubt he'll jump into the starting lineup, but could be replacing LeRib as the backup.
A tackling dummy would be an improvement over LeRibeus. A healthy Lichtensteiger certainly will be, even if he is a bit long in the tooth compared with the other linemen.
I have to believe LeRibeus is not going to survive cuts. He has no business being in the NFL. He's absolutely terrible at run blocking and only passable in pass blocking because of the scheme.
Honestly I was shocked he survived the cuts last year. Who knows? I'm sure you're right about Lichtensteiger, but I'm really hoping one of the younger, bigger guys pushes him out of the lineup. Just never been sold, and I don't see that he really fits in the new scheme.
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:The other thing that will help is Vernon Davis. Better tight end blocking means not having to use an extra lineman.
I want to see Davis beat out Niles Paul in the lineup first.
I don't think Paul has anything to worry about. It's Paulsen who is likely on the bubble.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Thu May 19, 2016 9:45 am
by riggofan
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:I don't think Paul has anything to worry about. It's Paulsen who is likely on the bubble.
I don't think Paul has anything to worry about either, and I think he's probably well ahead of Vernon Davis at this point.
Re: Early ESPN prediction for Redskins: 6-10
Posted: Thu May 19, 2016 9:47 am
by riggofan
Man, I like hearing about these younger offensive linemen trying to work their way into the starting lineup. There's a good article about Austin Reiter today in the WashPost.
Former seventh-round pick adds ‘right kind of bulk’ in search of roster spothttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/foo ... ster-spot/Also these comments on Kouandjio are good to hear:
Can Arie Kouandjio push his way into the starting lineup? We haven’t seen him on the field yet this year but I’ve been told he’s up to about 325 pounds, up from 310 last year. He has the power and the nasty attitude that the team likes to have on the line. Did he use his year on the 53-man roster to polish his technique enough to possibly push past Shawn Lauvao and push Spencer Long over to center? We will have to wait until training camp to really get a handle on where Kouandjio is; he is one player who needs to be evaluated with full pads on.
- oh boy, some of this stuff is just amazing ... and it's May for crying out loud 
