The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

On ESPN.com it lists the Point Spread at Dolphins -3.5 and O/U at 43.5.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/game?gameId=400791544

That would mean the Vegas experts see a 24-20 win for the fish.

The comments section would suggest that most see the Redskins getting blown out of their own stadium. I can't blame other NFL fans for thinking it, but what are your thoughts on Vegas' rationale for the line? They clearly feel the Redskins are a lot better or the Dolphins are a lot worse than what the media would have you believe for either team. I do believe it will be a long day for the right side of our line. That said, if Kirk gets a strong running game going early and can release the ball fast enough, there is a chance to upset the fish who are entering this year thinking playoffs at minimum, maybe even a SB year.

Thoughts?

Game preview:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/preview?gameId=400791544

To end the article there is this interesting tid bit of information - maybe this has something to do with the line?
"The home team has captured the last seven meetings in this series. The Dolphins have dropped seven of their last eight road games against the NFC."

Vegas doesn't set odds to lose house money. Anything over 3 points is what they consider a lock for the favorite away from home. I'm sure nobody wants to hear this but Miami is a much better football club right now than is our Redskins team. My thoughts are I never bet against my own team (See: Rose, Peter Edward) and so Vegas won't be seeing any of my money on this game. I think we'll be a better team than the pundits are predicting but that doesn't mean much when it comes to having money to lose.

FanofallthatisGibbs wrote:Game preview:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/preview?gameId=400791544

at the end of the article there is this interesting bit of information - maybe this has something to do with the line?
"The home team has captured the last seven meetings in this series. The Dolphins have dropped seven of their last eight road games against the NFC."

the question is:

are the Redskins good enough to take the win streak against the Dolphins to 8 in a row

or

good enough to cause the Dolphins to lose 8 of their last 9 road games against the NFC



sure we are - we have captain Kirk under center and that offensive wizard, Jay Gruden in command

Am I the only one not overly worried about the Dolphins? Since when did they become world beaters?

Only 3 1/2? Miami was a powerful team that didn't give up last year, and they are only favored by 3 1/2?
If we catch a break and get on top early then Cousins will get confidence and bold, he can lightem up and blow away Miami; if they don't get on top early it'll be the last one who scores will win.

StorminMormon86 wrote:Am I the only one not overly worried about the Dolphins? Since when did they become world beaters?

The Fish won eight games last season. They beat the Patriots by 13 and lost to the Broncos by 3. We're nowhere close to that level of competitive.

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:

StorminMormon86 wrote:Am I the only one not overly worried about the Dolphins? Since when did they become world beaters?

The Fish won eight games last season. They beat the Patriots by 13 and lost to the Broncos by 3. We're nowhere close to that level of competitive.

We shall see.

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:

StorminMormon86 wrote:Am I the only one not overly worried about the Dolphins? Since when did they become world beaters?

The Fish won eight games last season. They beat the Patriots by 13 and lost to the Broncos by 3. We're nowhere close to that level of competitive.

Come on man. They won four more games than we did. They lost five of their last eight games including a 41-13 loss to NE. Only two of the teams they beat last year had a winning record.

They're clearly ahead of us, but "nowhere close to that level of competitive"? If we can't at least be competitive with them this weekend, we're in for a long season.

riggofan wrote:we're in for a long season.

I think this about sums it up. Rebuilding a team is a process, and in our case it's going to be a long one.

StorminMormon86 wrote:Am I the only one not overly worried about the Dolphins? Since when did they become world beaters?

I don't know.

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:

riggofan wrote:we're in for a long season.

I think this about sums it up. Rebuilding a team is a process, and in our case it's going to be a long one.

Yeah? How many more players do you think we need?

riggofan wrote:

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:

riggofan wrote:we're in for a long season.

I think this about sums it up. Rebuilding a team is a process, and in our case it's going to be a long one.

Yeah? How many more players do you think we need?

I'd like to be positive and say we don't need a quarterback but all evidence to the contrary thus far. Of course, Kirk could change my mind but it's gonna take a miracle as the song goes. I still think Lauvao is hot garbage at left guard. I'm not sold on Lichtensteiger at center. I like the defensive line but Knighton is probably a one year rental. That's one reason the Scherff pick has some people scratching their heads. I actually think the linebackers will be a strength this season. The secondary, however, is complete crap until proven otherwise and the special teams is special alright. I'll be stunned if ours aren't the worst in the league this season.

Having said that, I think most of those issues can be addressed in one offseason and draft but the quarterback issue continues to haunt us. It's our punishment for Todd Collins taking Mark Brunell's spot on the roster. We haven't had a quarterback that consistent since. There are no franchise quarterbacks in the 2016 NFL draft, so that's a big problem when rarely can a draft pick step in as a rookie and excel. If Scot McCloughan is the genius we think and hope he is he can and will fix everything else in one year.

How quickly the team can contend is on Kirk Cousins. As he goes, so goes the rebuilding process of our team. That's not too much pressure, is it?

I look at our starting 11 on offense and - qb questions aside - it doesn't look that bad to me. The rebuilding needed in my opinion is mostly about depth. One of those starters gets hurt or whatever and we're hosed.

Agree with the rest of your assessment though for the most part. Special teams is going to continue to hurt us, and if the secondary is as bad as we fear its going to continue to make life hard on the offense.

Vegas makes odds that cause people to bet. I think the non-redskins fan looks at this line and puts it down on Miami covering. Because of this, I actually think Vegas thinks the skins are better than -3.5 --- because the house will LOSE if Miami covers.

Vegas makes odds that cause people to bet. I think the non-redskins fan looks at this line and puts it down on Miami covering. Because of this, I actually think Vegas thinks the skins are better than -3.5 --- because the house will LOSE if Miami covers.

FanofallthatisGibbs wrote:... what are your thoughts on Vegas' rationale for the line? ...

The spread was as low as Miami -2 in April. Camps have been held and cuts have been made. After final cuts, the game opened at Miami -4. The rationale behind Miami -4 is one of these two:

1 The guys responsible for the number thought Miami -4 would do the best job of getting equal dollars bet on both teams thereby guaranteeing a tidy 10% profit no matter the outcome. Turns out this spread did not get equal dollars bet on both teams.


2 After very heavy betting on the favorite the spread should move UP to slow down the betting on Miami. It didn't. It actually moved DOWN to Miami -3.5 which entices even more dollars to be bet on Miami. In fact, 92% of all dollars bet are on Miami. It seems the sharps in Vegas wanted money on Miami all along. Otherwise, the spread would be going up to slow people down. Think about it ...

OMG! Miami is only laying 4 and the Skins SUCK! Free money!! Hurry up and bet on the Fins!!!
OMFG, I found it for Miami -3.5!!!! I'm going to the ATM!!!!!

Vegas licks chops as public goes nuts and puts 80% of their money on Miami. Vegas lowers the spread half a point to get even more dollars on Miami.

It seems apparent Vegas likes us to keep this close or win. If we lose by a FG or less ... or don't lose, Vegas cleans up. If Miami covers, Vegas loses almost every bet.

I think Vegas plays most of the games for equal betting, takes their 10%, and gambles that profit on a few games they like. That's how the line setters earn their bonuses.

The Skins will need to win at the line of scrimmage in this game and others so they are able to run 30+ times and limit Cousins to 35 passes or less. Cousins can quickly execute Gruden's WCO, we KNOW that, but he is not ready to carry the team Payton Manning style with 40+ passes and win a shoot out as we saw last season. it's only his 10th start and Kirk thinks fast enough so he'll probably pick up 300+ yards and extend drives unlike Robert III and out Griffin but the revamped if the OL cannot get make some holes for the tailbacks Kirk is going to be overwhelmed.

Hopefully, Kirk and Jackson can connect for the deep strikes to loosen things up and we get some decent rush blocking from the OL and the tight ends so the Skins can be balanced and Kirk isn't force to try to carry the team. Obviously, the defense has to hold up their end of things also. We cannot expect Kirk to have to throw for 400 yards while the defense gives up 30+ points.

The Skins are underdogs and deserve to be considering their weak pass defense and questionable rushing attack.

Screw this - I could care less what has to happen in order for Cousins to help this franchise ... Cousins is the starting QB - just go out there Sunday and find a way to win the damn game - if he has to pass 35-40 times, that's fine .. If he has to run for 100+ yards, that's OK

just get the damn job done ... or get out of here

this franchise has a lot of issues with finding a way to win - Cousins needs to prove he can help this franchise by not turning the ball over

and - most importantly

find a way to win the game - that's what good QBs do - especially against teams you're not mean't to beat

OldSchool wrote:The Skins are underdogs and deserve to be considering their weak pass defense and questionable rushing attack.

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by our rushing attack. May find something to like in the defense too.

SkinsJock wrote:just get the damn job done ... or get out of here

Oddly, you are against cutting Griffin, no?

SkinsJock wrote:Screw this - I could care less what has to happen in order for Cousins to help this franchise ... Cousins is the starting QB - just go out there Sunday and find a way to win the damn game - if he has to pass 35-40 times, that's fine .. If he has to run for 100+ yards, that's OK

just get the damn job done ... or get out of here

this franchise has a lot of issues with finding a way to win - Cousins needs to prove he can help this franchise by not turning the ball over

and - most importantly

find a way to win the game - that's what good QBs do - especially against teams you're not mean't to beat

Get used to it. This will be the "logic" of all bitter Griffin supporters for the next 17 weeks.

A "good" quarterback can win any game completely by himself regardless of the situation. If he's good. Good QBs can throw 40 times every game and never throw an interception. Otherwise he has to be fired. And the coach too.

Good QBs find a way to win the game. Like Aaron Rodgers did in the NFC East championship game last year. Otherwise they have to get out of here.

Deadskins wrote:

OldSchool wrote:The Skins are underdogs and deserve to be considering their weak pass defense and questionable rushing attack.

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised by our rushing attack. May find something to like in the defense too.

I hope so. I do like what we saw out of Matt Jones the past few weeks.

riggofan wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:Screw this - I could care less what has to happen in order for Cousins to help this franchise ... Cousins is the starting QB - just go out there Sunday and find a way to win the damn game - if he has to pass 35-40 times, that's fine .. If he has to run for 100+ yards, that's OK - just get the damn job done ... or get out of here - this franchise has a lot of issues with finding a way to win - Cousins needs to prove he can help this franchise by not turning the ball over - and - most importantly - find a way to win the game - that's what good QBs do - especially against teams you're not mean't to beat

Get used to it. This will be the "logic" of all bitter Griffin supporters for the next 17 weeks.

A "good" quarterback can win any game completely by himself regardless of the situation. If he's good. Good QBs can throw 40 times every game and never throw an interception. Otherwise he has to be fired. And the coach too.

Good QBs find a way to win the game. Like Aaron Rodgers did in the NFC East championship game last year. Otherwise they have to get out of here.

I'm not a "bitter Griffin fan" at all - RG3 is still here - I'm looking for the franchise to show evidence they are headed in the right direction

I understand that we are rebuilding but I'm not at all confident that Gruden or Cousins will be a part of that in 2016

SkinsJock wrote:I'm not a "bitter Griffin fan" at all - RG3 is still here - I'm looking for the franchise to show evidence they are headed in the right direction

I understand that we are rebuilding but I'm not at all confident that Gruden or Cousins will be a part of that in 2016

Which is it man? "Find a way to win or get out of here" or "show evidence they are headed in the right direction"?

These are two completely different expectations for the season. You've posted both in the space of two hours.