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Upset Watch: Washington Redskins (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Let's be clear: Dallas has been better than Washington this season. However, the Cowboys haven't been that much better than the Redskins with any of their three units -- but they have been better with all three. The Football Outsiders DVOA ratings rank Dallas six spots better on offense and four spots better on defense.


Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Robert Griffin III has been terrible in the first half of games.
Washington's biggest issue is trying to figure out why it can't get any offense going before halftime. Washington ranks 30th in offensive DVOA in the first half of games but fourth after halftime. This isn't just an issue of Robert Griffin III tearing up prevent defenses when the Redskins got blown out early in their first two games. Even in their Week 4 win over Oakland, the Redskins had 4.6 yards per play in the first two quarters and 6.1 yards per play after halftime.

Even if Washington can't score much in the first half, however, don't write off the upset, because so far this year the Dallas defense has had the opposite problem. The Cowboys are much better on defense to start games -- 12th in defensive DVOA before halftime and just 31st after halftime.

The strengths and weaknesses of the Dallas defense suggest that the Redskins need to put this game in Griffin's hands -- or, more accurately, on his arm rather than his and Alfred Morris' feet. The Cowboys rank seventh in defense against the run and allow just 3.2 yards per carry on first downs. However, the pass defense is 24th in DVOA and has been torched by Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning the past two weeks. (In defense of their defense, everyone gets torched by Manning.) Dallas brought almost no pressure against the Broncos, and Washington has been good at keeping pass-rushers off Griffin this year, ranking eighth in adjusted sack rate on offense.

On defense, the Redskins will need to figure out how to clamp down on Dez Bryant. Last year, DeAngelo Hall famously did a good job keeping Bryant contained in the Week 17 win that sent Washington to the playoffs. However, Bryant had 145 yards and two touchdowns in the first Dallas-Washington meeting last year, and Hall has generally been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league. This year, the Redskins have started the season last in DVOA against opponents' No. 1 receivers, allowing a 71 percent catch rate with 91 yards per game.

A final way for Washington to get an upset would be improvement on special teams. This has been the biggest gap between these two teams in 2013, and our special-teams ratings have Washington below average in every area of special teams except kickoff distance. Punts and field goals have been the biggest problems, but Washington does get back injured kicker Kai Forbath this week. He was the brightest spot on Washington's special teams a year ago.

Washington has been good at keeping pass-rushers off Griffin this year, ranking eighth in adjusted sack rate on offense.

emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.

riggofan wrote:Mike Shanahan is just a much better coach than Jason Garrett. We're going to get this done.

crazyhorse1 wrote:

emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.

Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.

Irn-Bru wrote:

crazyhorse1 wrote:

emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.

Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.

It really wasn't that bad, and Dallas' defense and (especially) special teams are what won it. I was pleased with our defensive effort against Romo.

Irn-Bru wrote:

crazyhorse1 wrote:

emoses14 wrote:Filth flarn filth Dallas.

Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.

It really wasn't that bad, and Dallas' defense and (especially) special teams are what won it. I was pleased with our defensive effort against Romo.

Countertrey wrote:Before or after the game...

One FACT remains the same...


Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.
Dallas Sucks.

HTTRRG3ALMO wrote:

Irn-Bru wrote:

crazyhorse1 wrote: Sad to so, Romo will feast on our defense and the offense is still not up to making up for it. Tomorrow will be a terrible day.

It really wasn't that bad, and Dallas' defense and (especially) special teams are what won it. I was pleased with our defensive effort against Romo.

RG3's inaccuracy was what bothered me the most. It is really good to see him running full speed though; to me, that demonstrates a mental milestone for him.

I do believe his accuracy will return as well, but there's always that nagging "what if" in the back of my mind. Just a learned response perhaps.