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Chances of Making Playoffs
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:39 pm
by DarthMonk
Latest analysis gives us a 35.2% chance up from 14.2% after the win over the Ginas on Monday Night.
The guys ahead of us outside the NFC East are:
CHI 95%
PAC 90.3%
SEA 60.5%
CHI or PAC will win the North so we have to pass one of them or SEA or win the East.
BUC 20.8%
COW 20.6%
are right behind us. Everyone else is a true long shot.
Our chance of being the #4 seed is 24%.
Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html
DarthMonk
Re: Chances of Making Playoffs
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:25 pm
by Deadskins
DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
100%
Re: Chances of Making Playoffs
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:48 pm
by DarthMonk
Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
100%
We could win out and miss ... as I'm sure you know. However, I'd say it is probably over 75% if we do win out.
Our best chance is to win the division ... I think.
I wish the Steelers had beaten the Ravens 3 weeks ago and lost last week. Don't like catching them coming off a loss.
Re: Chances of Making Playoffs
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:02 am
by Deadskins
DarthMonk wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
100%
We could win out and miss
Show me the scenario.
Re: Chances of Making Playoffs
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:08 am
by SkinsJock
Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
100%
We could win out and miss
Show me the scenario.
THAT would be interesting ...
Re: Chances of Making Playoffs
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:17 pm
by DarthMonk
Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
100%
We could win out and miss
Show me the scenario.
Really? Okay.
Giants win out (11-5) and win East.
Seahawks win out (11-5) and get a wild card behind 49ers (11-4-1).
Bears and Pack win out except their rematch so one wins division (12-4) and the other gets the other wild card (11-5).
I like our chances if we win out. We do not control our own destiny but might after this week.
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:13 pm
by SkinsJock
^^ fair enough - IF we do win out though I like the chances of at least one of those others not being able to make the playoffs
one of them is going to lose 2
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:53 pm
by cowboykillerzRGiii
If the gnats lose a game and we win out we own the tie breaker with better division record since the fecals beat them, they split with us and dullass. Might make week 17 vs the pukes the biggest game of the year! Glad its at home
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:35 pm
by DarthMonk
cowboykillerzRGiii wrote:If the gnats lose a game and we win out we own the tie breaker with better division record since the fecals beat them, they split with us and dullass. Might make week 17 vs the pukes the biggest game of the year! Glad its at home
Damn right ... and if so, I'm going!
Re: Chances of Making Playoffs
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:54 pm
by Countertrey
Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Deadskins wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Would like to see conditional probability assuming we win out.
100%
We could win out and miss
Show me the scenario.
seriously?
Math. It's not just for nerds.
Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:49 pm
by DarthMonk
BTW - Indy's chances are 82.8%. The last AFC spot is likely down to Cincy (56.5%) and Pitt (55%).
Other "interesting" facts about us:
Out of roughly 9.9 million possibilities ...
... around 3.4 million of them get us in.
... around 2.2 million of them have us getting in by finishing 3-1.
... around 0.9 million of them have us getting in by finishing 4-0. The idea here is not that it's harder to get in IF we go 4-0 but that 4-0 is simply less likely than 3-1.
Our chances fall off a cliff with 2 more losses.
We could easily be favored in every game.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html
Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:08 am
by Deadskins
If we beat Bmore, we will win out.
Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:10 pm
by DarthMonk
Deadskins wrote:If we beat Bmore, we will win out.
I feel the same way - linchpin game.
Wonder what would have happened if refs had not given Seattle the Packer game (with butterfly effect).
Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:07 pm
by DarthMonk
We are up to 37% now. Go Atlanta!
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:47 pm
by DarthMonk
We are suddenly at 66.5%.
We are 53% to be the 4 seed.
We are 3% to be the 3 seed.
We cannot get a bye.
We must beat the Cowboys to win the East.
The most likely scenario is Washington hosting Seattle.
They've knocked us out twice recently ... at their place. Payback would be very nice.
There is an outside chance we could host an NFC title game.
DarthMonk
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:27 pm
by SkinsJock
With 2 games to go and having a very real shot at winning the NFC East is just fantastic
We have seen this whole group become a team - the play calling on both defense and offense has improved - the O line has made great strides
we really are over achieving and it's just been a great ride
the icing on the cake would be to be in the playoffs and have the giants and cowboys miss out
truly a great job by both the players and the coaching staff
I'm very impressed with how the players are all playing with so much desire - THEY WILL NOT BE DENIED
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:18 am
by UK Skins Fan
At this stage, I'm just delighted that we're able to use old phrases like "chance of making playoffs". Words like those don't get seen around DC very often.
My expectations have already been surpassed for the season. A playoff spot would be sweet indeed
