The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

http://washingtonexaminer.com/thom-love ... JPDhGdsiSo

Not to mention that the Skins are like 12-1 on fourth down attempts this season.

spudstr04 wrote:http://washingtonexaminer.com/thom-love ... JPDhGdsiSo

Yes. Very familiar with this. The high school dude NEVER punts and wins titles. All about odds. Pros typically call the opposition's 40 or so "4 down territory." They should probably move that back - especially us. The high school dude also ALWAYS kicks off onside!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... index.html

DarthMonk

spudstr04 wrote:http://washingtonexaminer.com/thom-love ... JPDhGdsiSo

Yes. Very familiar with this. The high school dude NEVER punts and wins titles. All about odds. Pros typically call the opposition's 40 or so "4 down territory." They should probably move that back - especially us. The high school dude also ALWAYS kicks off onside!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... index.html

DarthMonk

DarthMonk wrote:The high school dude also ALWAYS kicks off onside!

I don't think the odds favor that.

I actually remember a stats company saying that teams would actually score an average of 1-1.5 points more a game if they always went for the 2 point conversion and never kicked an extra point.

markshark84 wrote:I actually remember a stats company saying that teams would actually score an average of 1-1.5 points more a game if they always went for the 2 point conversion and never kicked an extra point.

I believe that and the not punting thing are true (although I still believe you should punt in certain situations), but I don't think the onsides thing is warranted by the odds.

Deadskins wrote:

markshark84 wrote:I actually remember a stats company saying that teams would actually score an average of 1-1.5 points more a game if they always went for the 2 point conversion and never kicked an extra point.

I believe that and the not punting thing are true (although I still believe you should punt in certain situations), but I don't think the onsides thing is warranted by the odds.

I agree and if you did an onsides everytime, the odds would be even lower.

I hate playn people.on madden who do this crap.. it works but its also a game Idk bout real life

High School vs Pro's are two totally different games. If you have one stud on your team, you're in contention.

Deadskins wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:The high school dude also ALWAYS kicks off onside!

I don't think the odds favor that.

Actually, they do - big time. Since they ALWAYS do it they are good at it. When they fail it hardly makes a difference.

The onside kicks? According to Kelley's figures, after a kickoff the receiving team, on average, takes over at its own 33-yard line. After a failed onside kick the team assumes possession at its 48. Through the years Pulaski has recovered about a quarter of its onside kicks. "So you're giving up 15 yards for a one-in-four chance to get the ball back," says Kelley. "I'll take that every time!"


Not only do they not punt - they do not try to catch or return them. They go for the block - every time.

Why not attempt to return punts? "Especially in high school, where the punts don't go so far," he says, "it's not worth the risk of fumbling or a penalty."

Pulaski hasn't punted since 2007 (when it did so as a gesture of sportsmanship in a lopsided game), and here's why: "The average punt in high school nets you 30 yards, but we convert around half our fourth downs, so it doesn't make sense to give up the ball," Kelley says. "Besides, if your offense knows it has four downs instead of three, it totally changes the game. I don't believe in punting and really can't ever see doing it again."

He means ever. Consider the most extreme scenario, say, fourth-and-long near your own end zone. According to Kelley's data (much of which came from a documentary he saw), when a team punts from that deep, the opponents will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77% of the time. If they recover on downs inside the 10, they'll score a touchdown 92% of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field. And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."

DarthMonk wrote:

Deadskins wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:The high school dude also ALWAYS kicks off onside!

I don't think the odds favor that.

Actually, they do - big time. Since they ALWAYS do it they are good at it. When they fail it hardly makes a difference.

The onside kicks? According to Kelley's figures, after a kickoff the receiving team, on average, takes over at its own 33-yard line. After a failed onside kick the team assumes possession at its 48. Through the years Pulaski has recovered about a quarter of its onside kicks. "So you're giving up 15 yards for a one-in-four chance to get the ball back," says Kelley. "I'll take that every time!"

First, I don't buy those yardline figures. A failed onsides kick gives the other team the ball in your half of the field. Maybe not in high school (I'm not sure where they kick from) but in the pros it's now the 35. Second, you can't say your only giving up 15 yards, because a deep kick pins the receiving team deep in its own end, hopefully the 20 or less. You can't convince me that's a good return on the odds.

I'm sure some of this stuff works in high school for the reasons stated, but this discussion is about doing it in the pros. I say you have to punt in certain situations, but going for it on fourth makes a lot of sense in others. And you should probably go for two all the time, but onsides kicks just don't work in the pros at a rate that warrants doing it every time.

Deadskins wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:

Deadskins wrote: I don't think the odds favor that.

Actually, they do - big time. Since they ALWAYS do it they are good at it. When they fail it hardly makes a difference.

The onside kicks? According to Kelley's figures, after a kickoff the receiving team, on average, takes over at its own 33-yard line. After a failed onside kick the team assumes possession at its 48. Through the years Pulaski has recovered about a quarter of its onside kicks. "So you're giving up 15 yards for a one-in-four chance to get the ball back," says Kelley. "I'll take that every time!"

First, I don't buy those yardline figures. A failed onsides kick gives the other team the ball in your half of the field. Maybe not in high school (I'm not sure where they kick from) but in the pros it's now the 35. Second, you can't say your only giving up 15 yards, because a deep kick pins the receiving team deep in its own end, hopefully the 20 or less. You can't convince me that's a good return on the odds.

I'm sure some of this stuff works in high school for the reasons stated, but this discussion is about doing it in the pros. I say you have to punt in certain situations, but going for it on fourth makes a lot of sense in others. And you should probably go for two all the time, but onsides kicks just don't work in the pros at a rate that warrants doing it every time.

No doubt. This is high school. I would say pros are overly conservative though. They could learn a little from this guy.