The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

According to Football Outsiders QB career forecast system Robert Griffin III's rating is the highest in history. see the following post: http://www.rotoworld.com/content/player ... 257&spln=1

Never understood the thinking that Luck is a better QB when you look at the stats this past year.

Here's the link to the actual Football Outsiders article.

RG3 Fan wrote:According to Football Outsiders QB career forecast system Robert Griffin III's rating is the highest in history. see the following post: http://www.rotoworld.com/content/player ... 257&spln=1

Never understood the thinking that Luck is a better QB when you look at the stats this past year.

Scary excerpt:

The biggest difference between the two according to LCF is what happened in their senior year. Luck, who was stellar as a junior, saw his passer rating stay constant. Griffin, on the other hand, improved significantly. The 45.3-point rise in his passer rating as a senior is largest senior improvement in our database (surpassing Jason Campbell, who rose 40.3 points) and the second-largest senior change in our database (behind only Rex Grossman, whose passer rating as a senior dropped 49.3 points).

DarthMonk

^ The LCF, apparently, does not account for "it"...

I've seen that list, but I'd take it with a grain of salt. Of the 8 they projected who had NFL careers, it includes Chad Pennington, Brady Quinn, Colt McCoy and Jason Campbell. Hitting on 50% (and I am including Carson Palmer as a success) makes me wonder how good this system really is....

You may take it with a grain of salt... but... I would never take "it" with a grain of salt...

I like this "last note" from the article about the Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf debate.

One last note: The argument against "Luck and Griffin are about as close to can't miss as quarterback prospects can be" is not "well, people said the same thing about Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf." We know more now than we did then. Leaf started only 24 games and completed just 55.4 percent of his passes in college. His LCF projection is at -407. If Football Outsiders had been around in 1998, we would have been arguing that Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf weren't even in the same universe as prospects.

As stated in the article, the LCF is not to be used as a stand alone assessment of the QBs. It should be used with what the scouts say. If the scouts and the LCF are saying good things, then it appears that LCF is right on.

LCF and scouts say the same as RGIII.
LCF and scouts say same about Luck
LCF and scouts differed on Jason Campbell.
LCF and scouts differed on Ryan Leaf.

Though I don't say relax RGIII will be the stud that we all hope for in his first year, I do say, I rather go into the draft with LCF and scouts saying the same thing than not about him. Right now, I will relax.

Just for kicks and grins:

Here's Heath Shuler's 2 years as a starterat Tennesee.


1992 11GS 58.0 PCT 133.4Rating 105 Rush 286 YDS
1993 11GS 64.6 PCT 157 Rating 46 Rush 73 YDS (Final season rushing counts)
Rating Rise 23.9 22 GS

I don't have all the data for his LCF, but the 22 games started is only two above the minimum of 20. The LCF is heavily weighted on this stat. His rise of 23.9 from junior to senior year would have helped him a good deal.
The rushing stats for his senior year would have hurt. Luck's yardage wasn't much, but his average per carry was good showing that he can scramble when necessary.

I don't have the scouting reports on Heath Shuler, but I would bet that if an LCF was done on Heath he would not be considered worthy of the third pick in the draft and since LCF says you need both LCF and scouts to agree:

Perhaps, with the third pick of the 1994 NFL Draft, we would not have heard the name, Heath Shuler.


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-dr ... ecast-2012

Matt Bowen breaks down RGIII's TD against the Sooners.

- First thing that stands out with Griffin? The ability to step up in the pocket. Pro QBs have to “feel” pressure, move in the pocket and create throwing lanes. With an outside speed rush, this is exactly what we see with Griffin: step up and buy some time.

- I don’t see any panic from the Baylor QB—and his eyes are down the field. Often times we will see young and inexperienced QBs drop their eye level when they have to move to avoid a rush. That leads to poor decision-making and forced throws into coverage. With RGIII, the QB slides laterally to the line of scrimmage with eyes on the receivers.

You will hear analysts talk about QBs “throwing the wide receiver open.” What does that mean? Look at the DB in the end zone. He is playing with inside leverage. However, Griffin puts the ball to the outside (away from the DB's leverage) and allows his WR an opportunity to separate and go make the play. And the WR isn’t open when he let’s go of this ball.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/RGI ... witterfeed

Not to mention that was with seconds left in the 4th Qtr, with the game on the line, and he took a hit to the mouth.

Jim Irsay needs to just sign Luck, and let's get this show on the road. But, nah, he likes the attention he gets by Tweeting.

The Hogster wrote:Not to mention that was with seconds left in the 4th Qtr, with the game on the line, and he took a hit to the mouth.

Jim Irsay needs to just sign Luck, and let's get this show on the road. But, nah, he likes the attention he gets by Tweeting.

His most recent "work"

Tannehill is a hidden gem in this draft,a quiet secret who was always sneaking up to #3..you want him,you better talk to Zigi The Biggie!

and

There's talk on the streets,it sounds so familiar..great expectations,everybody's watching you.The people you meet,they all seem to know you

And we complain about "the Danny"

The Hogster wrote:Not to mention that was with seconds left in the 4th Qtr, with the game on the line, and he took a hit to the mouth.

Jim Irsay needs to just sign Luck, and let's get this show on the road. But, nah, he likes the attention he gets by Tweeting.

Because he's a twit.

Irsay must be an fan of The Eagles as taht last tweet r words to "New kid in town"

The Hogster wrote:Not to mention that was with seconds left in the 4th Qtr, with the game on the line, and he took a hit to the mouth.

Jim Irsay needs to just sign Luck, and let's get this show on the road. But, nah, he likes the attention he gets by Tweeting.

Right on.

And I don't know about you guys, but I find Irsay's twitter stuff just embarrassing. Leave that crap for Kim Kardashian, you goof. Say what you want about Snyder, but at least he conducts himself like a professional businessman and CEO. He's not out there tweeting about London Fletcher.

I can't wait to get my RGIII jersey.

Just think. In addition to that rating, he's still got this.

Versus Cam Newton & Luck.

riggofan wrote:

The Hogster wrote:Not to mention that was with seconds left in the 4th Qtr, with the game on the line, and he took a hit to the mouth.

Jim Irsay needs to just sign Luck, and let's get this show on the road. But, nah, he likes the attention he gets by Tweeting.

Right on.

And I don't know about you guys, but I find Irsay's twitter stuff just embarrassing. Leave that crap for Kim Kardashian, you goof. Say what you want about Snyder, but at least he conducts himself like a professional businessman and CEO. He's not out there tweeting about London Fletcher.

I can't wait to get my RGIII jersey.

While I agree with all of your post, I'm literally unable to sit still in anticipation of getting my hands on his jersey, too. Can't wait to add it to my rotation of Taylor (21, not 36), D. Williams and "No name" #87 throwback jersey (I am not aware of any receiver picked 15th in the 2001 draft who wore that number, no.)

The excitement will begin for me as soon as they announce Luck has signed with Indy.

The Cowboys are already scared of RGIII and we haven't even drafted him yet.

Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones recently discussed the team’s plans for defending against Griffin if/when (when) he joins Mike Vick and Eli Manning as the quarterbacks with whom the Cowboys have to contend twice per year.

I guess the Cowboys think the LCF rating is legit.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... /#comments

Red_One43 wrote:The Cowboys are already scared of RGIII and we haven't even drafted him yet.

Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones recently discussed the team’s plans for defending against Griffin if/when (when) he joins Mike Vick and Eli Manning as the quarterbacks with whom the Cowboys have to contend twice per year.

I guess the Cowboys think the LCF rating is legit.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... /#comments

Not to dampen your enthusiasm, which I share, but the Cowboys would prepare for whoever started at quarterback for the Redskins. I will say this: I hope the plans suck.

Fios wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:The Cowboys are already scared of RGIII and we haven't even drafted him yet.

Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones recently discussed the team’s plans for defending against Griffin if/when (when) he joins Mike Vick and Eli Manning as the quarterbacks with whom the Cowboys have to contend twice per year.

I guess the Cowboys think the LCF rating is legit.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... /#comments

Not to dampen your enthusiasm, which I share, but the Cowboys would prepare for whoever started at quarterback for the Redskins. I will say this: I hope the plans suck.

Yeah, but last time I checked RGIII wasn't a Redskin. They aren't preparing for Luck. When have you known a team to prepare for any player not yet on the opposing team? Yes, you have to give Dallas credit for preparing for the enevitable, but Brandon Carr (mentioned by Jones' son as the weapon to shut down our recievers)? He is not exactly a CB mentioned in the same breath of Revis and Asomugha. Demarcus Ware (Also mentioned by Jones' son in the article)? Give Trent credit. He neutralized him so much in both games that they shifted him over Brown quite often. Yes, give Dallas credit for being afraid - being very afraid that they have to assure their fan base not to worry.

Red_One43 wrote:The Cowboys are already scared of RGIII and we haven't even drafted him yet.

Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones recently discussed the team’s plans for defending against Griffin if/when (when) he joins Mike Vick and Eli Manning as the quarterbacks with whom the Cowboys have to contend twice per year.

I guess the Cowboys think the LCF rating is legit.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... /#comments

I'm guessing the Cowboys couldn't care less about the LCF rating.

They do have this thing called a scouting department, after all.

As stated in the article, the LCF is not to be used as a stand alone assessment of the QBs. It should be used with what the scouts say. If the scouts and the LCF are saying good things, then it appears that LCF is right on.

Well...so what you're saying is that this is kind of useless mental gymnastics and we should just trust the scouts more anyways as this doesn't tend to add much to their valuation anyways?

In any case, I have a ton of faith in RG3. I just don't in the LCF, as I find it to be based upon a suspect model. One that predicts stardom for those like Colt McCoy and Brady Quinn.

PulpExposure wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:The Cowboys are already scared of RGIII and we haven't even drafted him yet.

Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones recently discussed the team’s plans for defending against Griffin if/when (when) he joins Mike Vick and Eli Manning as the quarterbacks with whom the Cowboys have to contend twice per year.

I guess the Cowboys think the LCF rating is legit.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... /#comments

I'm guessing the Cowboys couldn't care less about the LCF rating.

They do have this thing called a scouting department, after all.

As stated in the article, the LCF is not to be used as a stand alone assessment of the QBs. It should be used with what the scouts say. If the scouts and the LCF are saying good things, then it appears that LCF is right on.

Well...so what you're saying is that this is kind of useless mental gymnastics and we should just trust the scouts more anyways as this doesn't tend to add much to their valuation anyways?

In any case, I have a ton of faith in RG3. I just don't in the LCF, as I find it to be based upon a suspect model. One that predicts stardom for those like Colt McCoy and Brady Quinn.

I forgot to put a smiley face about the Cowboys believing in the LCF. I was just kidding. My bad on that one.

About the LCF:

What's important is not that his (Sam Bradford's) projection is lower than Colt McCoy's projection -- instead, what's important is that he has a very good projection, which should give the Rams confidence that their scouts got it right. We don't claim to believe that the Lewin Career Forecast is a foolproof way of figuring out which quarterback an NFL team should draft. This is an interesting regression analysis, not Moses bringing the tablets down from Sinai. Still, we think that LCF v2.0 is valuable as a crosscheck device and should be part of the conversation about quarterback draft prospects.

This is what I hear the guy saying, the LCF is a tool to crosscheck - to use with the scouts who are not foolproof either (Scouts and coaches missed big time on JaMarcus Russell - Billick just admitted that Russell was at the top of his boards when he was with the Ravens). Who knew that Charlie Casserly used mock drafts? Who knows if GMs are using the LCF? Who knows what other tools they are using that we would never think that they use? Where there is no exact science and millions of dollars at stake, any tool is worth trying, not as a stand alone, but as a crosscheck.

With all that said and all the tools and scouts, have we raised the success rate of 1st round QBs from 50%? I don't think so.

So, Pulp, I have no argument with your opinion on LCF, but like you, I have faith in RGIII because he has the athleticism, the arm, the accuracy, the legs, and he has "IT" as well as the 40+ college starts.

http://www.csnwashington.com/blog/redsk ... edID=10316


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... recast-v20

Robert Griffin III has a lot more going for him than any scouting or combine can project ...

Robert Griffin III IS coming to the Redskins having played his college ball in Waco, TX

Previous Redskins players from Texas are Sammy Baugh and Darrell Green



RG3 will be one of the greatest Redskins players ever .... CANNOT MISS - because RG3 is from Texas

SkinsJock wrote:Robert Griffin III has a lot more going for him than any scouting or combine can project ...

Robert Griffin III IS coming to the Redskins having played his college ball in Waco, TX

Previous Redskins players from Texas are Sammy Baugh and Darrell Green



RG3 will be one of the greatest Redskins players ever .... CANNOT MISS - because RG3 is from Texas

I love how you always make these pronouncements. I hope you're more acurate than you are with your Hognostications.

Um, if he can resurrect Baylor. . . BAYLOR!!!??. . . the skins will be a walk in the park. He'll have some stumbles, cause he's human, but in the end . . . I think we'll be happy.