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No Luck... so... Now What?

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 5:23 am
by 1niksder
Here's the draft order if the season ended today...

1 Indianapolis 0-11
2 St. Louis 2-9
3 Minnesota 2-9
4 Carolina 3-8
5 Jacksonville 3-8
6 Miami 3-8
7 Washington 4-7
8 Arizona 4-7
9 Philadelphia 4-7
10 Cleveland 4-7
11 Kansas City 4-7
12 Seattle 4-7
13 Tampa Bay 4-7
14 San Diego 4-7

The Skins would have the 7th pick and two teams selecting before them with a need for a QB. I'm pretty sure the Colts will take Luck with the first pick. The Rams are set with Sam Bradford and won't be picking a QB with their first pick. The Vikings, Panthers, and the Jaguars all picked up Quarterbacks in last year's darft and all three are now starting, so none of these teams will be picking QBs in round one. The Dolphins on the other hand have Matt Moore as their starting QB, a 5th year player but with only 20 starts in his career. Tony Sparano may want to go into next season with Moore under center but Miami might not want to go into next season with Sparano. They are getting better as the season goes on but the Dolphins remaining schedule won't help the Skins pick higher than the Dolphins.

OAK, PHI, @ BUF, @ NE, and NYJ

The Dolphins will finish 4-12 at best and pick ahead of Redskins.

Some teams may/will move ahead of Washington based won-loss record but it doesn't mean all of the top quarterbacks will be off the board by the time the Redskins pick. Most teams at the top of the 2012 draft like Arizona (traded picks and a player for Kolb last season), Philadelphia (paid Vick $100 million), and Kansas City (have Matt Cassel and Klye Orton although Tyler Palko starting,Ricky Stanzi was drafted in 2011) have too much invested or litle need to look at the QB position. The Bucs are also happy with Josh Freeman in his 3rd year.

That leaves the Browns and Seahawks, Cleveland has Colt McCoy starting QB and Seneca Wallace as his back up, I'm not sure they know it, but the Browns need a QB. I doubt they draft on with Peyton Hillis on his way out of town and Trent Richardson sitting in the green room. The Browns remaining schedule might help them leap frog the Redskins if they do want to go QB.

BAL, @ PIT, @ ARI, @ BAL and PIT again

The Browns won't finish better than 5-11.Seattle has a injuried Tarvaris Jackson starting and Charlie Whitehurst in the last year of his contract.The Seahawks remaining schedule might drop them out of the top 15.

PHI, STL, @ CHI, SF, and @ ARI

The Seahawks might finish around 7-9,but Pete Carroll recruitted Barkley to USC and may try to move ahead of the other QB needed teams to select him.

The Redskins have the New York Jets, New England Patriots, @ New York Giants, the Minnesota Vikings,and @ Philadelphia Eagles,so winning out won't be a option, winning two of the last five might be more realistic, so lets say the Skins finish at 6-10 again this year. That would more than likely make the draft order for teams looking for a QB look more like this...

1 Indianapolis 1-15
2 Miami 4-12
3 Cleveland 5-11
4 Washington 6-10
5 Seattle 7-9

Looking at the top six QBs in the 2012 draft:

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State

and we see only the top half are first round pick worthy. If Cleveland decides to go QB or if Carroll trades up to get Barkley, where does that leave the Redskins?

What will Shanny do, knowing Landry Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins might not be first rounders but they are all upgrades over the Rex & Beck comedy hour we see every week?

What would you do?

Re: No Luck... so... Now What?

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:43 am
by DarthMonk
1niksder wrote:Here's the draft order if the season ended today...

1 Indianapolis 0-11
2 St. Louis 2-9
3 Minnesota 2-9
4 Carolina 3-8
5 Jacksonville 3-8
6 Miami 3-8
7 Washington 4-7
8 Arizona 4-7
9 Philadelphia 4-7
10 Cleveland 4-7
11 Kansas City 4-7
12 Seattle 4-7
13 Tampa Bay 4-7
14 San Diego 4-7

The Skins would have the 7th pick and two teams selecting before them with a need for a QB. I'm pretty sure the Colts will take Luck with the first pick. The Rams are set with Sam Bradford and won't be picking a QB with their first pick. The Vikings, Panthers, and the Jaguars all picked up Quarterbacks in last year's darft and all three are now starting, so none of these teams will be picking QBs in round one. The Dolphins on the other hand have Matt Moore as their starting QB, a 5th year player but with only 20 starts in his career. Tony Sparano may want to go into next season with Moore under center but Miami might not want to go into next season with Sparano. They are getting better as the season goes on but the Dolphins remaining schedule won't help the Skins pick higher than the Dolphins.

OAK, PHI, @ BUF, @ NE, and NYJ

The Dolphins will finish 4-12 at best and pick ahead of Redskins.

Some teams may/will move ahead of Washington based won-loss record but it doesn't mean all of the top quarterbacks will be off the board by the time the Redskins pick. Most teams at the top of the 2012 draft like Arizona (traded picks and a player for Kolb last season), Philadelphia (paid Vick $100 million), and Kansas City (have Matt Cassel and Klye Orton although Tyler Palko starting,Ricky Stanzi was drafted in 2011) have too much invested or litle need to look at the QB position. The Bucs are also happy with Josh Freeman in his 3rd year.

That leaves the Browns and Seahawks, Cleveland has Colt McCoy starting QB and Seneca Wallace as his back up, I'm not sure they know it, but the Browns need a QB. I doubt they draft on with Peyton Hillis on his way out of town and Trent Richardson sitting in the green room. The Browns remaining schedule might help them leap frog the Redskins if they do want to go QB.

BAL, @ PIT, @ ARI, @ BAL and PIT again

The Browns won't finish better than 5-11.Seattle has a injuried Tarvaris Jackson starting and Charlie Whitehurst in the last year of his contract.The Seahawks remaining schedule might drop them out of the top 15.

PHI, STL, @ CHI, SF, and @ ARI

The Seahawks might finish around 7-9,but Pete Carroll recruitted Barkley to USC and may try to move ahead of the other QB needed teams to select him.

The Redskins have the New York Jets, New England Patriots, @ New York Giants, the Minnesota Vikings,and @ Philadelphia Eagles,so winning out won't be a option, winning two of the last five might be more realistic, so lets say the Skins finish at 6-10 again this year. That would more than likely make the draft order for teams looking for a QB look more like this...

1 Indianapolis 1-15
2 Miami 4-12
3 Cleveland 5-11
4 Washington 6-10
5 Seattle 7-9

Looking at the top six QBs in the 2012 draft:

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State

and we see only the top half are first round pick worthy. If Cleveland decides to go QB or if Carroll trades up to get Barkley, where does that leave the Redskins?

What will Shanny do, knowing Landry Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins might not be first rounders but they are all upgrades over the Rex & Beck comedy hour we see every week?


What would you do?


I'd pray for Griffin III. To hedge my bets on prayer I'd consider trading UP in this case. I want this guy a lot. See Griffin III thread in GM forum if you want ot read up.

DarthMonk

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:11 am
by Deadskins
I'd like Griffin too. There's always the chance of another team trading up in front of us, though, so unless you have the top pick, nothing is certain.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:39 am
by StorminMormon86
I'd stop worrying so much about a draft when there's still a season in progress. This team is not going to tank the rest of this season just for one draft pick (that might be a bust). I see us winning 2-3 more games pushing us even further back in the draft.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:11 am
by SkinsJock
To answer the question ..'what would you do?'

I would NOT trade draft picks picks - trade older players BUT do not trade draft picks

Take the QB with the first pick that best suits what we need - no matter where he's 'rated'


we have many needs & need to add as many young players that suit what we need as possible

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:52 am
by SprintRightOption
The Redskins are probably going to win more games. If they run the table they would be 9-7. Not likely but as posted above, you can't worry about the draft you have to play to win. If they get better offensive help on the line from the draft and receivers this team could be competitive without a shinny new quarterback. They are going to have to replace Jammal Brown. He can't last much longer. And we saw what happened with field goals and extra points. They could trade one of the running backs.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:35 am
by SkinsJock
There is NO WAY that this franchise goes into next season without a future great QB getting ready to play QB

I doubt that we have a QB named Beck or Grossman on the roster next season


many upgrades still needed but we're not far off except perhaps with O line

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:48 am
by riggofan
SkinsJock wrote:There is NO WAY that this franchise goes into next season without a future great QB getting ready to play QB

I doubt that we have a QB named Beck or Grossman on the roster next season


I don't know. I think its more likely than not that Grossman and maybe even Beck are both on the roster next year. Even if we draft a first round QB, somebody is going to have to back him up and possibly even start until he is up to speed.

I kinda hate all of the focus on the draft right now when its not even December yet. Not just from the Redskins, but around the league in general. Personally if I could draft in the top ten next year or beat the Eagles and Giants in December, I'd take the latter.

Good analysis about the draft though either way. I'll look forward to reading more about it in February. :)

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:48 am
by StorminMormon86
I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Beck as the backup, since he has 1 year left in his contract. Shanahan has publically staked his reputation on him, and also said he didn't have the benefit of OTAs because of the lockout.

We definitely need a QB to groom for the future.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:51 am
by frankcal20
SkinsJock wrote:There is NO WAY that this franchise goes into next season without a future great QB getting ready to play QB

I doubt that we have a QB named Beck or Grossman on the roster next season


many upgrades still needed but we're not far off except perhaps with O line


There's only one guy who is projected to be "Great" in the draft and that's Luck. If you don't get him, then you're getting a projected starter and middle of the road projected player. Similar to what Jason Campbell was.

If you're sitting at say #5 pick, the top 2 QBs are gone and the next guy is rated a 2nd round pick, you don't grab a guy just to grab a guy. You have to be flexible. Maybe you trade down. Maybe you draft another player at a position of need. There are enough holes on this team that you can easily find a player in the 1st round who will project as an upgrade to what we currently have.

I'm 1st in line to say we need a QB but I'm not going to give up the farm or overpay just to say you got a QB. You have to get it right in the 1st round and do everything in your power to nail that pick.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 12:06 pm
by SkinsJock
NOBODY is guaranteed to be a great NFL player - these guys are taking a QB with their top pick of the draft - no matter what :lol:

TOTALLY agree that we have many needs - just look at what happens when the O line cannot block - that was atrocious

this franchise has many needs and I hope we have as good a draft as the last one PLUS we add some young FAs

we'll take a QB with the top pick AND hopefully find a way to not have Grossman
- Beck might stay but he's certainly NOT starting here next season

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 1:10 pm
by 1niksder
StorminMormon86 wrote:I'd stop worrying so much about a draft when there's still a season in progress. This team is not going to tank the rest of this season just for one draft pick (that might be a bust). I see us winning 2-3 more games pushing us even further back in the draft.


As the first post states, the Skins will win more games and the draft positions will change. I was thinking at the least the last two games. Also thinking the Browns will draft before us and the plausibility of Pete Carroll moving up. Nothing in this subject has anything to do with tanking the rest of this season just for one draft pick.

SprintRightOption wrote:The Redskins are probably going to win more games. If they run the table they would be 9-7. Not likely but as posted above, you can't worry about the draft you have to play to win. If they get better offensive help on the line from the draft and receivers this team could be competitive without a shinny new quarterback. They are going to have to replace Jammal Brown. He can't last much longer. And we saw what happened with field goals and extra points. They could trade one of the running backs.


You keep saying they will when more games... that's a given. What would you do with the first pick is what I was asking. I stated in the first post that I only consider three of the top six QB prospects as 1st rounders (like any pick some could be a bust), and presented a outlook that has three teams in need of QB help ahead of the Redskins in the upcoming draft.

StorminMormon86 wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Beck as the backup, since he has 1 year left in his contract. Shanahan has publically staked his reputation on him, and also said he didn't have the benefit of OTAs because of the lockout.


OK what's it gonna be :D
I thought you were leaning toward fixing the O-line with the first pick and riding the season out with Beck

Then you throw in this...

StorminMormon86 wrote:We definitely need a QB to groom for the future.


When do you select the QB of the future and how.

frankcal20 wrote:
SkinsJock wrote:There is NO WAY that this franchise goes into next season without a future great QB getting ready to play QB

I doubt that we have a QB named Beck or Grossman on the roster next season


many upgrades still needed but we're not far off except perhaps with O line


There's only one guy who is projected to be "Great" in the draft and that's Luck. If you don't get him, then you're getting a projected starter and middle of the road projected player. Similar to what Jason Campbell was.

If you're sitting at say #5 pick, the top 2 QBs are gone and the next guy is rated a 2nd round pick, you don't grab a guy just to grab a guy. You have to be flexible. Maybe you trade down. Maybe you draft another player at a position of need. There are enough holes on this team that you can easily find a player in the 1st round who will project as an upgrade to what we currently have.

I'm 1st in line to say we need a QB but I'm not going to give up the farm or overpay just to say you got a QB. You have to get it right in the 1st round and do everything in your power to nail that pick.


I wouldn't give up the farm for Luck (or anyone else), and the Colts might ask for more than that anyway. I'm not that high on Barkley and I see that as a bidding war waiting to happen if Jackson doesn't look 100% by the end of the season for the Seahawks. Depending on the deal I'd move up to get RGIII if it looked like he wouldn't fall to wherever the Skins are picking. If the cost is more than a few late round picks I'd pass and look at somebody to play tackle like Riley Reiff from Iowa or a corner like Morris Claiborne from LSU, the other option would be trading down for more picks but still be able to grab Jonathan Martin from Stanford or Alfonzo Dennard from Nebraska. A quarterback with the first pick is the only position they can afford to select a non-day one starter.

Tannehill will be available in the second round, and I do believe the Skins will open 2012 with Beck under center. If they select RGIII, he'll be the starter before the end of the year, if they go with Tannehill, who knows when we will see him

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 1:41 pm
by StorminMormon86
1niksder wrote:Nothing in this subject has anything to do with tanking the rest of this season just for one draft pick.

I don't recall ever saying it did. I'm just annoyed at the talks of the draft when the season isn't even over yet. But other Skins fans did advocate tanking the rest of the season for the sole purpose of getting a better draft pick. And I think that's nuts.
1niksder wrote:
StorminMormon86 wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Beck as the backup, since he has 1 year left in his contract. Shanahan has publically staked his reputation on him, and also said he didn't have the benefit of OTAs because of the lockout.


OK what's it gonna be :D
I thought you were leaning toward fixing the O-line with the first pick and riding the season out with Beck

Then you throw in this...

StorminMormon86 wrote:We definitely need a QB to groom for the future.


When do you select the QB of the future and how.

When I said I'd "ride the season out with Beck" I meant for the rest of this season. And I definitely don't buy into the hype that drafting a QB is going to solve this team's woes. I never said what I would do in the draft, I only said I wouldn't be surprised if Shanny bypassed a QB in the first round. We need a QB to groom, he just doesn't have to be our first pick that's all.
1niksder wrote:Tannehill will be available in the second round, and I do believe the Skins will open 2012 with Beck under center. If they select RGIII, he'll be the starter before the end of the year, if they go with Tannehill, who knows when we will see him

I agree with you, Shanahan is too stubborn to publically support Beck just to throw him away after 3 games.

Re: No Luck... so... Now What?

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 1:44 pm
by PAPDOG67
1niksder wrote:Here's the draft order if the season ended today...

1 Indianapolis 0-11
2 St. Louis 2-9
3 Minnesota 2-9
4 Carolina 3-8
5 Jacksonville 3-8
6 Miami 3-8
7 Washington 4-7
8 Arizona 4-7
9 Philadelphia 4-7
10 Cleveland 4-7
11 Kansas City 4-7
12 Seattle 4-7
13 Tampa Bay 4-7
14 San Diego 4-7

The Skins would have the 7th pick and two teams selecting before them with a need for a QB. I'm pretty sure the Colts will take Luck with the first pick. The Rams are set with Sam Bradford and won't be picking a QB with their first pick. The Vikings, Panthers, and the Jaguars all picked up Quarterbacks in last year's darft and all three are now starting, so none of these teams will be picking QBs in round one. The Dolphins on the other hand have Matt Moore as their starting QB, a 5th year player but with only 20 starts in his career. Tony Sparano may want to go into next season with Moore under center but Miami might not want to go into next season with Sparano. They are getting better as the season goes on but the Dolphins remaining schedule won't help the Skins pick higher than the Dolphins.

OAK, PHI, @ BUF, @ NE, and NYJ

The Dolphins will finish 4-12 at best and pick ahead of Redskins.

Some teams may/will move ahead of Washington based won-loss record but it doesn't mean all of the top quarterbacks will be off the board by the time the Redskins pick. Most teams at the top of the 2012 draft like Arizona (traded picks and a player for Kolb last season), Philadelphia (paid Vick $100 million), and Kansas City (have Matt Cassel and Klye Orton although Tyler Palko starting,Ricky Stanzi was drafted in 2011) have too much invested or litle need to look at the QB position. The Bucs are also happy with Josh Freeman in his 3rd year.

That leaves the Browns and Seahawks, Cleveland has Colt McCoy starting QB and Seneca Wallace as his back up, I'm not sure they know it, but the Browns need a QB. I doubt they draft on with Peyton Hillis on his way out of town and Trent Richardson sitting in the green room. The Browns remaining schedule might help them leap frog the Redskins if they do want to go QB.

BAL, @ PIT, @ ARI, @ BAL and PIT again

The Browns won't finish better than 5-11.Seattle has a injuried Tarvaris Jackson starting and Charlie Whitehurst in the last year of his contract.The Seahawks remaining schedule might drop them out of the top 15.

PHI, STL, @ CHI, SF, and @ ARI

The Seahawks might finish around 7-9,but Pete Carroll recruitted Barkley to USC and may try to move ahead of the other QB needed teams to select him.

The Redskins have the New York Jets, New England Patriots, @ New York Giants, the Minnesota Vikings,and @ Philadelphia Eagles,so winning out won't be a option, winning two of the last five might be more realistic, so lets say the Skins finish at 6-10 again this year. That would more than likely make the draft order for teams looking for a QB look more like this...

1 Indianapolis 1-15
2 Miami 4-12
3 Cleveland 5-11
4 Washington 6-10
5 Seattle 7-9

Looking at the top six QBs in the 2012 draft:

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State

and we see only the top half are first round pick worthy. If Cleveland decides to go QB or if Carroll trades up to get Barkley, where does that leave the Redskins?

What will Shanny do, knowing Landry Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins might not be first rounders but they are all upgrades over the Rex & Beck comedy hour we see every week?

What would you do?


Way too early to be looking at this. You should go play the lotto, because you seem to have the NFL thing down pat. Miami has been playing some of the best football in the NFL over the last month. They could easily win 3 or 4 more games. Too early to speculate on where teams will finish.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 1:55 pm
by RayNAustin
frankcal20 wrote:
SkinsJock wrote:There is NO WAY that this franchise goes into next season without a future great QB getting ready to play QB

I doubt that we have a QB named Beck or Grossman on the roster next season


many upgrades still needed but we're not far off except perhaps with O line


There's only one guy who is projected to be "Great" in the draft and that's Luck. If you don't get him, then you're getting a projected starter and middle of the road projected player. Similar to what Jason Campbell was.

If you're sitting at say #5 pick, the top 2 QBs are gone and the next guy is rated a 2nd round pick, you don't grab a guy just to grab a guy. You have to be flexible. Maybe you trade down. Maybe you draft another player at a position of need. There are enough holes on this team that you can easily find a player in the 1st round who will project as an upgrade to what we currently have.

I'm 1st in line to say we need a QB but I'm not going to give up the farm or overpay just to say you got a QB. You have to get it right in the 1st round and do everything in your power to nail that pick.


Frank, that's why you give up the farm to make a deal with the Colts, if they are willing to deal, which they may not be, unless you make it an offer nobody could refuse.

Normally, I'm totally against the philosophy of going "all in" for an individual player, but this is a unique situation. Luck has that type of talent that only comes around once every decade or two, and though it's generally a crap shoot with top pick QBs, he's probably as sure a thing as is possible without a crystal ball ... and particularly with QBs, you anticipate getting 14 or more years out of that player, while other positions, like RB can expect barely half of that career longevity. This makes it worth a huge investment if you think you have a sure thing.

The unique situation is that Luck is one of those rare ones who is expected to be able to go in and start right away, day one, similar to how Newton did this year, and he's better than Newton. While the Colts just signed Peyton to the largest contract of any player playing, and as long as Peyton's health doesn't prevent him from playing for the next 3-4 years, they may be persuaded to give up the pick with the right incentives ... since it will be extremely costly to pay what Luck will command to be a backup to manning for the next 3 or more years, and also give up the goodies they could get in a trade. It's really about Peyton's health and what the Colts can expect from him for the next few seasons ... if he can play, he will be the one playing.

While it's smart to recoil from the idea of "giving up the farm" in most cases, this case is different. A farm does you no good without the big tractor, and Luck is that tractor that the Redskins desperately need, and can solidify that position which has been the most unstable position of need for the Redskins for as far as the eye can see backward.

One has to consider the question ... what if you could go back in time ... what would you give up to sign Peyton Manning for the next 14 years? Would two or three 1st rounders be too much? Hell no ....look what the Redskins have accomplished with their 1st round picks .... Campbell and Rogers were 2 1st rounders .... would you trade Campbell and Rogers and next year's 1st for Luck? If you had a brain the answer is .... in a New York city second.

So that's my point .... you go to Indy and tell them we want that pick, and we're willing to engage a little "Temporary Insanity" to get it. What do you want? Whatever their answer is, you say OKAY. You want 3 one's ? Trade one of our studs (whomever) for someone's 2012 1st rounder ... package that with this year's 1, and our #1 for 2013, and then learn how to effectively utilize the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds for players you need for the next two years.

At the end of the day, it will be worth it .... when the Redskins will enjoy having a Peyton Manning type of player chewing up the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles for the next dozen years.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:01 pm
by PAPDOG67
There is no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect, especially when it come to the NFL.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:14 pm
by Irn-Bru
We are fortunate that our big year of need coincides so nicely with one of the most talented QB classes in years. No matter where we land in the draft order, there's no reason we can't get a QB who will be able to take the starting role near or on week 1 of next season.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:27 pm
by SkinsJock
we need a QB that we can get ready to play PLUS hopefully have a QB that can play & help that QB get ready
Beck & Grossman are not QBs that should be starting here next season

ALSO - this franchise is still short on both starters and quality depth


we are not far off but we must get the QB situation resolved - this has been our major flaw for a while

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 4:01 pm
by riggofan
StorminMormon86 wrote:I agree with you, Shanahan is too stubborn to publically support Beck just to throw him away after 3 games.


I don't know. He didn't seem to have any problem benching Beck for Grossman three weeks ago. Seems more pragmatic to me than stubborn.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 6:00 pm
by GoSkins
My crystal ball foretells the following:

1. Redskins draft a QB in Round 1
2. Beck is cut after we sign our new QB
3. Grossman stays and will start for the for most of the 2012 season
4. Our newly drafted QB will see playing time and by the end of the 2012 season will be the starter

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 6:19 pm
by joebagadonuts
GoSkins wrote:My crystal ball foretells the following:

1. Redskins draft a QB in Round 1
2. Beck is cut after we sign our new QB
3. Grossman stays and will start for the for most of the 2012 season
4. Our newly drafted QB will see playing time and by the end of the 2012 season will be the starter


Some of the draft gurus are saying that QBs like Luck and Barkley are 'NFL ready', and could start right away. If we were to draft an NFL Ready QB, Shanahan will do whatever he wants, although it's difficult to ignore the first-year guys who have started either from day one or close to it (I've never seen so many rookie starting QBs in one year) and have had success. We may go into the 2012 season thinking that Grossman will take the snaps for most of the season, but it may also be that the rookie starts sooner than we think he will.

I know it's easy to say 'don't move up to get THE guy', but after getting burned on late first round guys like Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell, I'm tempted to jump in the 'trade picks to get into the 1/2/3 spot' camp.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:26 pm
by skinpride1
I am confident that Rex Grossman will keep us in the top 7 draft spots. :P

Skins 5-11

The only thing that might get us more wins not that is a bad thing, is the run game and Roy Helu. That will get grossman going with the play action pass. Which we need a good run game but we also need a franchise QB ...tough spot to be in. I want 5-11 and the franchise QB next year.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:29 pm
by chiefhog44
RayNAustin wrote:
frankcal20 wrote:
SkinsJock wrote:There is NO WAY that this franchise goes into next season without a future great QB getting ready to play QB

I doubt that we have a QB named Beck or Grossman on the roster next season


many upgrades still needed but we're not far off except perhaps with O line


There's only one guy who is projected to be "Great" in the draft and that's Luck. If you don't get him, then you're getting a projected starter and middle of the road projected player. Similar to what Jason Campbell was.

If you're sitting at say #5 pick, the top 2 QBs are gone and the next guy is rated a 2nd round pick, you don't grab a guy just to grab a guy. You have to be flexible. Maybe you trade down. Maybe you draft another player at a position of need. There are enough holes on this team that you can easily find a player in the 1st round who will project as an upgrade to what we currently have.

I'm 1st in line to say we need a QB but I'm not going to give up the farm or overpay just to say you got a QB. You have to get it right in the 1st round and do everything in your power to nail that pick.


Frank, that's why you give up the farm to make a deal with the Colts, if they are willing to deal, which they may not be, unless you make it an offer nobody could refuse.

Normally, I'm totally against the philosophy of going "all in" for an individual player, but this is a unique situation. Luck has that type of talent that only comes around once every decade or two, and though it's generally a crap shoot with top pick QBs, he's probably as sure a thing as is possible without a crystal ball ... and particularly with QBs, you anticipate getting 14 or more years out of that player, while other positions, like RB can expect barely half of that career longevity. This makes it worth a huge investment if you think you have a sure thing.

The unique situation is that Luck is one of those rare ones who is expected to be able to go in and start right away, day one, similar to how Newton did this year, and he's better than Newton. While the Colts just signed Peyton to the largest contract of any player playing, and as long as Peyton's health doesn't prevent him from playing for the next 3-4 years, they may be persuaded to give up the pick with the right incentives ... since it will be extremely costly to pay what Luck will command to be a backup to manning for the next 3 or more years, and also give up the goodies they could get in a trade. It's really about Peyton's health and what the Colts can expect from him for the next few seasons ... if he can play, he will be the one playing.

While it's smart to recoil from the idea of "giving up the farm" in most cases, this case is different. A farm does you no good without the big tractor, and Luck is that tractor that the Redskins desperately need, and can solidify that position which has been the most unstable position of need for the Redskins for as far as the eye can see backward.

One has to consider the question ... what if you could go back in time ... what would you give up to sign Peyton Manning for the next 14 years? Would two or three 1st rounders be too much? Hell no ....look what the Redskins have accomplished with their 1st round picks .... Campbell and Rogers were 2 1st rounders .... would you trade Campbell and Rogers and next year's 1st for Luck? If you had a brain the answer is .... in a New York city second.

So that's my point .... you go to Indy and tell them we want that pick, and we're willing to engage a little "Temporary Insanity" to get it. What do you want? Whatever their answer is, you say OKAY. You want 3 one's ? Trade one of our studs (whomever) for someone's 2012 1st rounder ... package that with this year's 1, and our #1 for 2013, and then learn how to effectively utilize the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds for players you need for the next two years.

At the end of the day, it will be worth it .... when the Redskins will enjoy having a Peyton Manning type of player chewing up the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles for the next dozen years.


There you go again Ray. Coming up with some hair brained idea to TOTALY redeem yourself. I'm all for this personally. Been holding back because it's risky, but WTF. Let's go for the jugular.

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:25 pm
by Red_One43
StorminMormon86 wrote:I'd stop worrying so much about a draft when there's still a season in progress. This team is not going to tank the rest of this season just for one draft pick (that might be a bust). I see us winning 2-3 more games pushing us even further back in the draft.


That's the spirit! Just win, baby! Play to win that game! Let the draft take care of itself. Let's keep it going by beating the Jets this weekend!

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:33 pm
by SkinsJock
we don't need to worry about the first pick - we just need these guys to have another great draft

we have many needs - these guys will find a QB to get ready PLUS another QB to start while he's getting ready

no worries

let's just win a few more games and let these guys do their thing

we'll be picking in the top 15 and we should be able to get a good QB