The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

There seems to be no issue debated more among Redskins fans and media, than the status of Brandon Banks in light of the new kickoff rules. Now I know it is a sensitive issue for fans, and I'm really not trying to add fuel to the fire, but rather present the facts and let them speak for themselves.

Now in an effort of full disclosure, I will say that I have been on both sides of the Brandon Banks camp. Last season I was a major supporter for Banks to be on the team and given a chance to see if he can play in this league. On the flip side, I've been among the loudest voices questioning whether or not he has a spot this year. What's changed, you might ask? Well a lot actually. While Banks showed extremely well as a return man last year, he also failed to do much of anything as an offensive weapon. While last year he was fighting with Roydell Williams, Joey Galloway, Bobby Wade and a host of other retread receivers for a roster spot, this year he is competing against three rookies and a much improved Terrence Austin. Finally, with the new kickoff rule, Banks's value to the team is going to be even less than it was last season.

Now I'm going to focus on the impact of the kickoff rule as well as looking at how Banks fits in to this roster. As a companion piece to this I wrote a similarly themed article for my own blog. While there is some overlap, my other piece focuses a bit more on the history from when the last time the NFL kickoffs were from the 35, and the effect it had on Brian Mitchell. The focus here will be more on stats and comparing the Redskins situation with others like it around the league. Finally I wanted to say ahead of time that I realize a lot of the points that I'm offering counterpoints to are from comments, posts and articles, some of which have been written by fans and bloggers on this site. I'm not 'calling anyone out' or trying to 'knock anyone's opinion', rather I just want to show the other side to the story.

Impact Of The New Kickoff Rule:

Let's knock the big one out of the park right now. The new kickoff rule will without a doubt have a pretty significant impact on return men this year. Through three weeks in the preseason we have seen a staggering 40.7% (167 of 412 kickoffs) go for touchbacks. That is up from 16.4 % of kicks that went for touchbacks last season. That is essentially a 150% increase in touchbacks through three preseason games. And even that might be low balling the number once the regular season hits.

Three major factors could make the percentage of touchbacks even higher once the regular season kicks off. First we have seen return men (in hopes of making the team) take the ball out four to nine yards deep in the end zone. Although that will still occur somewhat during the regular season, it is likely that the green light won't be given nearly as much as when the games count. Second, teams have admitted to kicking the ball short in an effort to work on their coverage teams some this preseason. During the regular season, teams will likely focus more on kicking it deep and forcing an automatic 80 yard field. Finally, we have seen a number of teams use 2nd string kickers, who won't be on the roster by the time the regular season comes around. Now it is hard to say for sure what the overall impact will be, but it is a fairly safe assumption that the touchback rate is probably a little low.

So what does that mean in terms of a season though?......

Brandon Banks Is A Threat To Score Every Time He Touches The Ball:

Yes there is no doubt that Brandon Banks is an electric player, but is he going to be this scoring threat that people really believe? Last year there were over 2,100 non-touchback kickoffs. If you take away another 300 specialty kicks, you end up with about 1,800 actual kick returns (the actual number is probably slightly more). Of those 1,800 kick returns, just 23 went for touchdowns. That is roughly 1.4% of kickoff returns that go for scores. And while Banks might be more likely than most kick returners, he is far from guaranteed to take one to the house, especially with the new kickoff rules. Historically in the past when kickoffs have been from the 35 yard line, there have been on average between 6-10 returns for a TD, so your chances for a score will probably be under 1%. As for punt returns the percentage isn't much better as the league scored just 13 TD's on 1,149 returns, for a 1.1% scoring rate.....

Why Is Brandon Banks Given Special Treatment?:

Every team is facing this return issue this season, but it seems like Redskins fans are the most concerned about their guy Banks not making the final roster. Now the fact is that most return men have at least some utility role that help ensures a roster spot so not everyone is on the 'bubble', but with Banks people are desperate to hang on to him.

I get that returns are flashy, but ....

frankcal20 wrote:They didn't even go into the fact that he's had knee issues this year and last year.

I can't justify losing Austin who offers more as a WR than banks or Hankerson who has a lot more size than Banks.

frankcal20 wrote:I don't think that we keep more than 5 WR's only b/c of needing depth at other positions. Check this out. http://www.the-hogs.net/blogs/2011/08/3 ... rediction/

1niksder wrote:

Brandon Banks Is A Threat To Score Every Time He Touches The Ball:

Yes there is no doubt that Brandon Banks is an electric player, but is he going to be this scoring threat that people really believe? Last year there were over 2,100 non-touchback kickoffs. If you take away another 300 specialty kicks, you end up with about 1,800 actual kick returns (the actual number is probably slightly more). Of those 1,800 kick returns, just 23 went for touchdowns. That is roughly 1.4% of kickoff returns that go for scores. And while Banks might be more likely than most kick returners, he is far from guaranteed to take one to the house, especially with the new kickoff rules. Historically in the past when kickoffs have been from the 35 yard line, there have been on average between 6-10 returns for a TD, so your chances for a score will probably be under 1%. As for punt returns the percentage isn't much better as the league scored just 13 TD's on 1,149 returns, for a 1.1% scoring rate.....

The Hogster wrote:We will see how this plays out. All of the anti-Banks articles cite his lack of productivity on Offense as justification for releasing him. But, none of them address the reality that (i) no teams 6th or 7th receiver is contributing much at all on Offense--they are usually special teams guys (gunners, returners, etc) and (ii) of the top return men who handle both Kickoffs and Punts--very few of them are major contributors on Offense or Defense. And, even those guys have seen their Special Teams roles limited to situational returns rather than full-time duties. (See Josh Cribbs & Devin Hester)

The major question in Banks' case should be specific to his situation. With that said, the question would be does keeping Brandon Banks for his return ability, outweigh the potential value that keeping Niles Paul would have on Offense?

If the answer is yes, then he stays. If the answer is No, then he goes. It's somewhat of a stretch to think that Paul--a rookie--is going to get enough opportunities at this stage of his career to produce very much on Offense. For every play he's on the field, someone has to sit down. Who sits? Moss? Gaffney? Armstrong? Hankerson? Austin? Go through the league, the 6th WR rarely is on the field enough to catch more than single digits in passes on the entire year. Why are we so convinced that 1-9 catches from Paul would outweigh 20-30 KOR and 20-40 PR from Banks?

I just don't get it. But, we shall see.

Deadskins wrote:

1niksder wrote:

Brandon Banks Is A Threat To Score Every Time He Touches The Ball:

Yes there is no doubt that Brandon Banks is an electric player, but is he going to be this scoring threat that people really believe? Last year there were over 2,100 non-touchback kickoffs. If you take away another 300 specialty kicks, you end up with about 1,800 actual kick returns (the actual number is probably slightly more). Of those 1,800 kick returns, just 23 went for touchdowns. That is roughly 1.4% of kickoff returns that go for scores. And while Banks might be more likely than most kick returners, he is far from guaranteed to take one to the house, especially with the new kickoff rules. Historically in the past when kickoffs have been from the 35 yard line, there have been on average between 6-10 returns for a TD, so your chances for a score will probably be under 1%. As for punt returns the percentage isn't much better as the league scored just 13 TD's on 1,149 returns, for a 1.1% scoring rate.....

He doesn't have to score to make it a good return. Great field position, even if you don't go all the way, is still a boon to the offense's chances of scoring on any particular drive.

frankcal20 wrote:I agree with that 100% but you have to ask if you can get the same production in the return game from another player who may offer more as a Wr should someone go down with injury.

The Hogster wrote:We will see how this plays out. All of the anti-Banks articles cite his lack of productivity on Offense as justification for releasing him. But, none of them address the reality that (i) no teams 6th or 7th receiver is contributing much at all on Offense--they are usually special teams guys (gunners, returners, etc) and (ii) of the top return men who handle both Kickoffs and Punts--very few of them are major contributors on Offense or Defense. And, even those guys have seen their Special Teams roles limited to situational returns rather than full-time duties. (See Josh Cribbs & Devin Hester)

The major question in Banks' case should be specific to his situation. With that said, the question would be does keeping Brandon Banks for his return ability, outweigh the potential value that keeping Niles Paul would have on Offense?

If the answer is yes, then he stays. If the answer is No, then he goes. It's somewhat of a stretch to think that Paul--a rookie--is going to get enough opportunities at this stage of his career to produce very much on Offense. For every play he's on the field, someone has to sit down. Who sits? Moss? Gaffney? Armstrong? Hankerson? Austin? Go through the league, the 6th WR rarely is on the field enough to catch more than single digits in passes on the entire year. Why are we so convinced that 1-9 catches from Paul would outweigh 20-30 KOR and 20-40 PR from Banks?

I just don't get it. But, we shall see.

frankcal20 wrote:Keeping Banks means that you're most likely going to have 6 receivers. With that being said, who's not going to make the team at another position. Still can only have 53 players.

The Hogster wrote:We will see how this plays out. All of the anti-Banks articles cite his lack of productivity on Offense as justification for releasing him. But, none of them address the reality that (i) no teams 6th or 7th receiver is contributing much at all on Offense--they are usually special teams guys (gunners, returners, etc) and (ii) of the top return men who handle both Kickoffs and Punts--very few of them are major contributors on Offense or Defense. And, even those guys have seen their Special Teams roles limited to situational returns rather than full-time duties. (See Josh Cribbs & Devin Hester)

The major question in Banks' case should be specific to his situation. With that said, the question would be does keeping Brandon Banks for his return ability, outweigh the potential value that keeping Niles Paul would have on Offense?

If the answer is yes, then he stays. If the answer is No, then he goes. It's somewhat of a stretch to think that Paul--a rookie--is going to get enough opportunities at this stage of his career to produce very much on Offense. For every play he's on the field, someone has to sit down. Who sits? Moss? Gaffney? Armstrong? Hankerson? Austin? Go through the league, the 6th WR rarely is on the field enough to catch more than single digits in passes on the entire year. Why are we so convinced that 1-9 catches from Paul would outweigh 20-30 KOR and 20-40 PR from Banks?

I just don't get it. But, we shall see.

SKINFAN wrote:I'll throw a penny in the hallway =)

To me it looks like we don't need him. Sure he has speed, but (arguably) he is not durable because of size. One flush hit and off to IR he goes. It looks to me that he is a one dime guy, but he does it real well. Unfortunately, this team needs more than what he can give right now. Specially with the new kickoff rule. We have a couple of young guys that can do a Spec Teams that are good not great, but they also help in the rotation at WR. Banks, if I remember right, he disappeared in coverage for the most part when put in as a WR. If we have a proven Offense, a good solid WR corps then I say Yeah, let's see what he can do in ST, but the O needs all hands on deck, sorry Brandon but we have a few guys we may need at RB.


Edit: Banks is a need, I know it's preseason, but the new kickoff rule helps a guy like him, 1 cut, 1 miss and he's off to the races.