The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

Julio Jones is a stud. Julio Jones is also projected to be available in a lot of the mock drafts out there. My question to you all is that if Julio is available at #10, would you rather draft him at #10 or trade down with a team that is in dire need for a WR, the St. Luis Rams.

Rams get: #10 pick
Skins get: #14 pick & #78 (3rd Rd)

In case you're wondering, the trade is considered perfectly even at 1300 pts each.

My opinion is that we trade out of the #10 spot, pick up the 3rd round pick. Jones is a very good WR, I'll give him that but given that the Redskins have so many holes to fill, adding a 3rd round RT for instance gives us another opportunity to get a possible starter week 1.

I don't trade that pick. If you look at most of the projections/analyses of this draft, the general consensus is that there are about 9-10 elite prospects in this draft. While 10 to 14 might not seem like a big drop, the difference in the caliber of player that were are able to get if we stay put versus trading down could be significant. I'd also be more inclined to do this draft if I had confidence that our front office could do something meaningful with that 3rd round pick that we would get from the Rams. However, under Allen the bucs absolutely sucked in the draft and Shanny had his fare share of drafting issues as well with the Broncos.

I've read somewhere that Allen didn't have anything to do with the draft outside of negotiations. As for players, he didn't have input. Can't remember where I heard it though.

But I see your point - it makes sense but I also understand the risk of taking a "can't miss" WR wo history has shown only works out about 50% of the time.

Julio Jones makes about as much sense as drafting a punter at #10. Jones will be an impact player for a team with a quarterback. That doesn't mean the Redskins should trade the pick if Robert Quinn is there. The Redskins need impact players.

TCIYM wrote:Julio Jones makes about as much sense as drafting a punter at #10. Jones will be an impact player for a team with a quarterback. That doesn't mean the Redskins should trade the pick if Robert Quinn is there. The Redskins need impact players.

Robert Quinn is obscenely overrated. On their face, his college stats look awesome. 52 total tackles and (35 solo) and 11 sacks in 2009, his most productive and last college season. However, in reality they show that he feasted on the bottom feeders of the ACC and did completely dissapeared against the good teams that UNC faced.

All 11 of his sacks came against the Citadel, UVA, Duke, Georgia Southern, BC, and ECU.

Against Ga Tech, FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech he had ZERO sacks and 13 total tackles. 10 of those tackles came against Ga Tech and its triple option. So against FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech he managed ZERO sacks and 3 total tackles (1 solo).

Add in the fact that he didn't play in 2010 and that there wont be a full offseason of OTAs, minicamps, etc., and Robert Quinn would be a HORRIBLE pick for this team.

CanesSkins26 wrote:

TCIYM wrote:Julio Jones makes about as much sense as drafting a punter at #10. Jones will be an impact player for a team with a quarterback. That doesn't mean the Redskins should trade the pick if Robert Quinn is there. The Redskins need impact players.

Robert Quinn is obscenely overrated. On their face, his college stats look awesome. 52 total tackles and (35 solo) and 11 sacks in 2009, his most productive and last college season. However, in reality they show that he feasted on the bottom feeders of the ACC and did completely dissapeared against the good teams that UNC faced.

All 11 of his sacks came against the Citadel, UVA, Duke, Georgia Southern, BC, and ECU.

Against Ga Tech, FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech he had ZERO sacks and 13 total tackles. 10 of those tackles came against Ga Tech and its triple option. So against FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech he managed ZERO sacks and 3 total tackles (1 solo).

Add in the fact that he didn't play in 2010 and that there wont be a full offseason of OTAs, minicamps, etc., and Robert Quinn would be a HORRIBLE pick for this team.

Quinn would have Brian Orakpo on the other side. Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck. You're telling me that's worse? I'm not buying it.

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

CanesSkins26 wrote:I don't trade that pick. If you look at most of the projections/analyses of this draft, the general consensus is that there are about 9-10 elite prospects in this draft. While 10 to 14 might not seem like a big drop, the difference in the caliber of player that were are able to get if we stay put versus trading down could be significant. I'd also be more inclined to do this draft if I had confidence that our front office could do something meaningful with that 3rd round pick that we would get from the Rams. However, under Allen the bucs absolutely sucked in the draft and Shanny had his fare share of drafting issues as well with the Broncos.

OK, what do you mean "drafting issues" for Shanny?

Here is a head to head comarison of Shanny (Broncos), Belichek, Steelers Organization and the Redskins Organization from 1999-2008 for Shanny and 2000-08 for the others. Shanny's overall success rate was a 37% to Belichek's - 29% - Steelers - 39% - Redskins - 29 %.
Note Shanny tended to have more success from the 3rd to 7th rounds.
His success in the first round is scary being on par with the Redskins, but his second round is on par with others but easily distancing Belichek.
So against the two of the top teams of the past ten years, Shanny is better than Belichek and on par with the Steelers. What issues?

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread. ... nd-Colbert)-(and-the-Snyder-Redskins)

Of course that is one guy's data, but the key is that he used the same criteria for each team or coach. Here is another guy doing the draft success rate period. I include his just for a comparison of Shanny's first round 61% to the overall league rate this guy found - 50%. (The criteria of the two research projects is different - my point here is just to give some prospective on Shanny's 61%)

Per our previous article, first round success rate over the last ten years was an exact 50/50 split, with a 50% success rate.

http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/articl ... _Value.jsp

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

TCIYM wrote:Julio Jones makes about as much sense as drafting a punter at #10. Jones will be an impact player for a team with a quarterback.

Wow! That is a very poor exaggerated comparison - Punter vs. a big 6-4 receiver who can run block, run a 4.3 40 with a broken foot. He can run reverses fo you as well as a big red zone target. As far as not having a QB to throw to him. I saw Grossman hit Anthony Armstrong in stride with a bomb, I never saw McNabb, a stronger armed QB, do that last season. Also, when you throw in that drafting the big receiver that you longed for for years is just one piece of the puzzle to build on, there is plenty of logic in picking a talent like Jones at 10. Plus, it normally takes 2-3 years for a
wideout to adjust to the NFL. There is no logic for punter at 10. There is logic for Jones at 10. BTW, receiver is a need as well.

Saying pass over Jones at #10 is one thing, but to say makes as much sense as drafting a punter at 10 that is too big of an exaggeration.

TCIYM wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

TCIYM wrote:Julio Jones makes about as much sense as drafting a punter at #10. Jones will be an impact player for a team with a quarterback. That doesn't mean the Redskins should trade the pick if Robert Quinn is there. The Redskins need impact players.

Robert Quinn is obscenely overrated. On their face, his college stats look awesome. 52 total tackles and (35 solo) and 11 sacks in 2009, his most productive and last college season. However, in reality they show that he feasted on the bottom feeders of the ACC and did completely dissapeared against the good teams that UNC faced.

All 11 of his sacks came against the Citadel, UVA, Duke, Georgia Southern, BC, and ECU.

Against Ga Tech, FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech he had ZERO sacks and 13 total tackles. 10 of those tackles came against Ga Tech and its triple option. So against FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech he managed ZERO sacks and 3 total tackles (1 solo).

Add in the fact that he didn't play in 2010 and that there wont be a full offseason of OTAs, minicamps, etc., and Robert Quinn would be a HORRIBLE pick for this team.

Quinn would have Brian Orakpo on the other side. Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck. You're telling me that's worse? I'm not buying it.

Quinn at stand up OLB is a project. Is there evidence that Quinn can even drop back and cover? I am sure that the combine had him do it, but did he do it in college?

CanesSkins26 wrote:

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

Ask Stafford if he's glad Detriot drafted Calvin Johnson before he got there.

CanesSkins26 wrote:

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.

I voted to trade #10, because I want to trade the pick, but not for #14 and the rams 3rd rounder. I would get a little creative here. Ask for their 4th rounder in additon to the third rounder and offer one of our lowest 5th. The goal is get a at least a 3rd and 4th rounder. We already have a creative deal relationship with the Rams. The Carriker trade and Hall Davis for Dennis Morris rookie swap and cut trade. I
If I can't get multiple picks, I am drafting Jones at 10 if he is there.

Red_One43 wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.

Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.

Red_One43 wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:I don't trade that pick. If you look at most of the projections/analyses of this draft, the general consensus is that there are about 9-10 elite prospects in this draft. While 10 to 14 might not seem like a big drop, the difference in the caliber of player that were are able to get if we stay put versus trading down could be significant. I'd also be more inclined to do this draft if I had confidence that our front office could do something meaningful with that 3rd round pick that we would get from the Rams. However, under Allen the bucs absolutely sucked in the draft and Shanny had his fare share of drafting issues as well with the Broncos.

OK, what do you mean "drafting issues" for Shanny?

Here is a head to head comarison of Shanny (Broncos), Belichek, Steelers Organization and the Redskins Organization from 1999-2008 for Shanny and 2000-08 for the others. Shanny's overall success rate was a 37% to Belichek's - 29% - Steelers - 39% - Redskins - 29 %.
Note Shanny tended to have more success from the 3rd to 7th rounds.
His success in the first round is scary being on par with the Redskins, but his second round is on par with others but easily distancing Belichek.
So against the two of the top teams of the past ten years, Shanny is better than Belichek and on par with the Steelers. What issues?

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread. ... nd-Colbert)-(and-the-Snyder-Redskins)

Of course that is one guy's data, but the key is that he used the same criteria for each team or coach. Here is another guy doing the draft success rate period. I include his just for a comparison of Shanny's first round 61% to the overall league rate this guy found - 50%. (The criteria of the two research projects is different - my point here is just to give some prospective on Shanny's 61%)

Per our previous article, first round success rate over the last ten years was an exact 50/50 split, with a 50% success rate.

http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/articl ... _Value.jsp

That analysis is extremely flawed. For example, calling Karl Paymah a successful draft choice is a joke. Shanny had some success with offensive players, but looking at that analysis, Shanny was horrible at drafting defensive players. Since 2001, DJ Williams and Dumervil are the only two impactful defensive players that Shanny drafted.

One thing I hope is that we do NOT use the top 2 picks that we currently have on offensive players
if we take Jones, I think it's a mistake to take the QB with the 41st pick

#1 - we need to help our defense with this draft and to do that I think we need to take a defensive player first OR with the next pick

#2 - we need a QB

#3 - we need to add to our draft picks

No way I want any of those cheater's on my team.

JUST SAY NO TO THE BABY BLUE!!!

CanesSkins26 wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:I don't trade that pick. If you look at most of the projections/analyses of this draft, the general consensus is that there are about 9-10 elite prospects in this draft. While 10 to 14 might not seem like a big drop, the difference in the caliber of player that were are able to get if we stay put versus trading down could be significant. I'd also be more inclined to do this draft if I had confidence that our front office could do something meaningful with that 3rd round pick that we would get from the Rams. However, under Allen the bucs absolutely sucked in the draft and Shanny had his fare share of drafting issues as well with the Broncos.

OK, what do you mean "drafting issues" for Shanny?

Here is a head to head comarison of Shanny (Broncos), Belichek, Steelers Organization and the Redskins Organization from 1999-2008 for Shanny and 2000-08 for the others. Shanny's overall success rate was a 37% to Belichek's - 29% - Steelers - 39% - Redskins - 29 %.
Note Shanny tended to have more success from the 3rd to 7th rounds.
His success in the first round is scary being on par with the Redskins, but his second round is on par with others but easily distancing Belichek.
So against the two of the top teams of the past ten years, Shanny is better than Belichek and on par with the Steelers. What issues?

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread. ... nd-Colbert)-(and-the-Snyder-Redskins)

Of course that is one guy's data, but the key is that he used the same criteria for each team or coach. Here is another guy doing the draft success rate period. I include his just for a comparison of Shanny's first round 61% to the overall league rate this guy found - 50%. (The criteria of the two research projects is different - my point here is just to give some prospective on Shanny's 61%)

Per our previous article, first round success rate over the last ten years was an exact 50/50 split, with a 50% success rate.

http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/articl ... _Value.jsp

That analysis is extremely flawed. For example, calling Karl Paymah a successful draft choice is a joke. Shanny had some success with offensive players, but looking at that analysis, Shanny was horrible at drafting defensive players. Since 2001, DJ Williams and Dumervil are the only two impactful defensive players that Shanny drafted.

OK, sometimes ya just can't trust your sources, but what source are you using that says Shanny has drafting issues? Anybody's analysis is going to have bias because there is no agreement as to when a guy can be considered a bust or success. Now, how does your "since 2001" analysis of Shanahan's defensive picks stack up with other teams/coaches? Don't forget to at 4th rounder Perry Riley to your list. He is the real deal and quite a steal. AND did you really mean to omit Darrent Williamss (drafted in 2005)? Had he not been killed he had star cornerback written all over him?

TCIYM wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.

Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.

Mayock says:

"I think the kid has rare and elite skills for a defensive end in the National Football League," NFL Network senior draft analyst Mike Mayock said of Quinn (who is Mayock's No. 1-rated defensive end) on Path to the Draft, though he still thinks he projects better as a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... ft-stock/1

For our argument, you failed to address my point that Quinn's coverage skills are unknown. Thus Quinn is a project at OLB.
Think back to Orakpo's rookie year. To maximize his talent, he was placed in the DE position where he got most of his sacks. You can't do that with Quinn on a 3-4 team. Orakpo isn't the best cover LB either. He is still learning. So, with Quinn, you might have to OLBs trying to learn how to cover. Von Miller stayed in school to coincentrate on his coverage skills and he was an OLB.

TCIYM wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.

Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.

He has upside, but he did not produce in college against anything but the bottom feeder teams. To me, that is a major red flag. Why would you want to take a risk on a player that struggled against any decent competition that he has faced?

OK, sometimes ya just can't trust your sources, but what source are you using that says Shanny has drafting issues? Anybody's analysis is going to have bias because there is no agreement as to when a guy can be considered a bust or success.

You don't need sources to realize that Shanny struggled drafting defense in Denver. Just look at the lack of starting caliber defensive players that the Broncos drafted while he was in charge.

Don't forget to at 4th rounder Perry Riley to your list. He is the real deal and quite a steal.

Riley hasn't done anything yet in the NFL. If he turns into a player Shanny will get credit.

AND did you really mean to omit Darrent Williamss (drafted in 2005)? Had he not been killed he had star cornerback written all over him?

I left Williams off on purpose. He unfortunately didn't play long enough to really be able to evaluate him as a player. He did show signs of promise, though.[/quote]

CanesSkins26 wrote:

TCIYM wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

Jones would have Rex Grossman breaking him in. Or John Beck.

Assuming that's true, so what? You wouldn't be drafting Jones for one year only. Should we trade ey just because we have a problem at qb right now? The point isn't just to build a team for 2011, and Jones has a higher upside than Quinn and probably any other player would be available at #10 (or #14).

With Quinn being a project at OLB, I have to agree with Canes that Jones has a stronger "can't miss" possibility than Quinn. As a DE in a 4-3, Quinn is porbably a sure bet, but there is an unknown at OLB. Is Quinn worth the 10, yes, but you have Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson developinp on your roster. Assuming Santana re-signs (and if he does he will most likey be the slot), we only have one other receiver on the roster that made an impact.

As far as Grossman, check Grossman vs. McNabb last year. Grossman his Santana in the hands in stride during the fourth quarter (Moss dropped it). He hit Armsrong in stride for the TD against NYG. This stuff about questioning Jones developing under Grossman is nonsense. See my earlier post. You can bet that Shanny has a plan to shore up this O line which will help any QB we have play better than last year.

Quinn's not a project. Had he played last year he would be a top five pick this season. Mayock has him in the mix for #1 overall pick two months ago. Mayock and McShay has him to Cleveland at #7 McShay and Kiper has him to Houston Kiper and Bunting has him to Washington Bunting so most have him as a top ten prospect, even with the year off.

I don't mind the argument but let's not undersell Quinn because some favor Jones.

He has upside, but he did not produce in college against anything but the bottom feeder teams. To me, that is a major red flag. Why would you want to take a risk on a player that struggled against any decent competition that he has faced?

I agree with his upside, he could be the next DeMarco Ware. Did you see any evidence of coverage skills when you saw him play?

But he would need to develop coverage skills, and as it stands there is a feeling his run defense also could use some improvement.

http://www.draftamerica.com/robert-quinn.php

CanesSkins26 wrote:You don't need sources to realize that Shanny struggled drafting defense in Denver. Just look at the lack of starting caliber defensive players that the Broncos drafted while he was in charge.

How does that stack up against other Coachs/GMs who have been drafting since 2001? From what Look at on that guy's chart, Shanny is right there in the mix as one of the top drafting minds. The draft is a crap shoot, but some teams do better than others and the Steelers are one of them. Based on your "impact" designation, I don't see where Shanny is that much behind the Steelers.

Red_One43 wrote:I voted to trade #10, because I want to trade the pick, but not for #14 and the rams 3rd rounder. I would get a little creative here. Ask for their 4th rounder in additon to the third rounder and offer one of our lowest 5th. The goal is get a at least a 3rd and 4th rounder. We already have a creative deal relationship with the Rams. The Carriker trade and Hall Davis for Dennis Morris rookie swap and cut trade. I
If I can't get multiple picks, I am drafting Jones at 10 if he is there.

10th pick + 5th round pick for the Rams 14th pick + 2nd round pick...