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Evaluating the Taylor Trade...

Rather than look at whoever Miami picks next year (which you can't do now), the best way to judge this deal is to look at the Skins history of picking #2 guys. I think it's pretty much hit or miss and the "hits" were relatively short lived in most cases. (Let's not even consider the #6 pick here at all. It's trivial.)

Here's a recent compilation of the Skin's luck with second round picks since the dawn of the first Gibb's era in 1982. If you objectively look at our history, there's at least a 1 out of 3 shot the guy you pick at #2 is a bust. The other two of three guys may turn out to be a perrenial starter, a solid backup or someone who flashes but fades fast.

So, as I see it, Taylor will at least be equal to a guy who is really good but fades fast. I think it's only a 33% chance that you'll pick a guy who will contribute more to a team than a Jason Taylor would. So, chances are that this was a good thing for us and it's hard to measure what Taylor could bring to the locker room. He certainly should help the defense get Jim Zorn off to a better coaching start which could be invaluable to Zorn's confidence and success here.

And, unless we're picking in the first round in the "blue chip zone," we can always trade down again to get more picks and make up for it. I think that worked well for us this year.

________________________

Recap of No. 2's

Jon Jansen was probably the best #2 but has been hit with injuries a lot the past couple of seasons. Fred Smoot was a good #2 pick but he left and since he's come back, still hasn't had a signature year, that is, near pro-bowl status. McIntosh has flashed greatness but has proven that the knee problems he had in college were a concern in the pros. Looking back Tre Johnson may have been our best #2 pick, an all-Madden team guy who used to crush defensive guys. He was built a lot like Larry Allen. Still, I don't recall Johnson's staying power in the NFL.

Andre Collins I thought would have a longer career but he didn't. He had problems shaking blockers against the run but was good in pass coverage and a solid rusher. Reggie Brooks had a great rookie season and faded. Lohmiller had a great career with Washington but is any kicker worth a #2 pick? Debatable. Could have probably gotten him later. Stephen Alexander was a guy I thought would be around for a long time but ey seems to have been everything we thought Alexander would be. In six years (1982-87) we had nine No. 2 picks and I only recall Vernon Dean making any impact. He had a short career too.

Does anyone recall Wally Kleine, Walter Murray, Bob Slater, Steve Hamilton, or Richard Williams? Sorry, but I don't know if any of them made the roster.


2006
2. Rocky McIntosh, LB, Miami

2003
2. Taylor Jacobs, WR, Florida

2002
2. Ladell Betts, RB, Iowa

2001
2. Fred Smoot, CB, Mississippi St.

1999
2. Jon Jansen, T, Michigan

1998
2. Stephen Alexander, TE, Oklahoma

1997
2. Greg Jones, LB, Colorado

1995
2. Cory Raymer, C, Wisconson

1994
2. Tre Johnson, T, Temple

1993
2. Reggie Brooks, RB, Notre Dame

1992
2. Shane Collins, DE, Arizona St

1990
2. Andre Collins, LB, Penn St.

1988
2. Chip Lohmiller, K, Minnesota

1987
2. Brian Davis, DB, Nebraska
2. Wally Kleine, T, Notre Dame

1986
2. Marcus Koch, DE, Boise St.
2. Walter Murray, WR, Hawaii

1985
2. Tory Nixon, DB, San Diego St.

1984
2. Bob Slater, DT, Oklahoma
2. Steve Hamilton, DE, East Carolina

1983
2. Richard Williams, RB, Memphis St.

1982
2. Vernon Dean, CB, San Diego St.

Good read HanburgerHelper!

This just confirms that this was a good trade.

The last time the Redskins used a 2nd round draft pick on a defensive end was 1992. The last time the Redskins drafted a remotely competent defensive end in any round was Kenard Lang in 1997.

Taylor Jacobs was the best #2 EVER!!!!!

Chip Lohmiller a number two pick ... I wish this board had been around back then, I would love to hear the screams when that pick was made, grated it turned out okay but wow!

xhadow wrote:Chip Lohmiller a number two pick ... I wish this board had been around back then, I would love to hear the screams when that pick was made, grated it turned out okay but wow!

You don't remember the screaming about the kickers the Redskins had before Chip Lohmiller? How do these names grab you?

Jess Atkinson
Obed Ariri
Ali Haji-Shiekh
Brendan Toibin
Max Zendejas

I think Redskins fans were greatful for Lohmiller.

HanburgerHelper wrote:Evaluating the Taylor Trade...

Rather than look at whoever Miami picks next year (which you can't do now), the best way to judge this deal is to look at the Skins history of picking #2 guys. I think it's pretty much hit or miss and the "hits" were relatively short lived in most cases. (Let's not even consider the #6 pick here at all. It's trivial.)

Here's a recent compilation of the Skin's luck with second round picks since the dawn of the first Gibb's era in 1982. If you objectively look at our history, there's at least a 1 out of 3 shot the guy you pick at #2 is a bust. The other two of three guys may turn out to be a perrenial starter, a solid backup or someone who flashes but fades fast.

So, as I see it, Taylor will at least be equal to a guy who is really good but fades fast. I think it's only a 33% chance that you'll pick a guy who will contribute more to a team than a Jason Taylor would. So, chances are that this was a good thing for us and it's hard to measure what Taylor could bring to the locker room. He certainly should help the defense get Jim Zorn off to a better coaching start which could be invaluable to Zorn's confidence and success here.

And, unless we're picking in the first round in the "blue chip zone," we can always trade down again to get more picks and make up for it. I think that worked well for us this year.

________________________

Recap of No. 2's

Jon Jansen was probably the best #2 but has been hit with injuries a lot the past couple of seasons. Fred Smoot was a good #2 pick but he left and since he's come back, still hasn't had a signature year, that is, near pro-bowl status. McIntosh has flashed greatness but has proven that the knee problems he had in college were a concern in the pros. Looking back Tre Johnson may have been our best #2 pick, an all-Madden team guy who used to crush defensive guys. He was built a lot like Larry Allen. Still, I don't recall Johnson's staying power in the NFL.

Andre Collins I thought would have a longer career but he didn't. He had problems shaking blockers against the run but was good in pass coverage and a solid rusher. Reggie Brooks had a great rookie season and faded. Lohmiller had a great career with Washington but is any kicker worth a #2 pick? Debatable. Could have probably gotten him later. Stephen Alexander was a guy I thought would be around for a long time but ey seems to have been everything we thought Alexander would be. In six years (1982-87) we had nine No. 2 picks and I only recall Vernon Dean making any impact. He had a short career too.

Does anyone recall Wally Kleine, Walter Murray, Bob Slater, Steve Hamilton, or Richard Williams? Sorry, but I don't know if any of them made the roster.


2006
2. Rocky McIntosh, LB, Miami

2003
2. Taylor Jacobs, WR, Florida

2002
2. Ladell Betts, RB, Iowa

2001
2. Fred Smoot, CB, Mississippi St.

1999
2. Jon Jansen, T, Michigan

1998
2. Stephen Alexander, TE, Oklahoma

1997
2. Greg Jones, LB, Colorado

1995
2. Cory Raymer, C, Wisconson

1994
2. Tre Johnson, T, Temple

1993
2. Reggie Brooks, RB, Notre Dame

1992
2. Shane Collins, DE, Arizona St

1990
2. Andre Collins, LB, Penn St.

1988
2. Chip Lohmiller, K, Minnesota

1987
2. Brian Davis, DB, Nebraska
2. Wally Kleine, T, Notre Dame

1986
2. Marcus Koch, DE, Boise St.
2. Walter Murray, WR, Hawaii

1985
2. Tory Nixon, DB, San Diego St.

1984
2. Bob Slater, DT, Oklahoma
2. Steve Hamilton, DE, East Carolina

1983
2. Richard Williams, RB, Memphis St.

1982
2. Vernon Dean, CB, San Diego St.

I'd add Raymer & Koch to the list of productive 2nd rnd picks. Too soon to tell about Rocky.

What about Thomas, Davis and Kelly? These are the most relevant #2's because they are the only ones drafted by our current FO with Cerrato more or less running the show sans Gibbs. In many ways #2's are more valuable than #1's considering what they get paid and the lack of all the pressure to live up to that abnormally large rookie paycheck.

Taylor's success depends largely on how we defend against the run with two lightweight DE's

and/or

how we move Taylor around to create mismatches

If we just stick him in at LDE to replace Daniels, I think we'll have a better pass rush and an equal and opposite decline in run-stopping. But I'm hoping Blache is smarter than that. Still, 8+ mil/year plus a 2nd and 6th is a steep price tag to live up to for a guy who won't be a Redskin in 2 years. I will cautiously hope for the best.

fleetus wrote:What about Thomas, Davis and Kelly? These are the most relevant #2's because they are the only ones drafted by our current FO with Cerrato more or less running the show sans Gibbs. In many ways #2's are more valuable than #1's considering what they get paid and the lack of all the pressure to live up to that abnormally large rookie paycheck.

Taylor's success depends largely on how we defend against the run with two lightweight DE's

and/or

how we move Taylor around to create mismatches

If we just stick him in at LDE to replace Daniels, I think we'll have a better pass rush and an equal and opposite decline in run-stopping. But I'm hoping Blache is smarter than that. Still, 8+ mil/year plus a 2nd and 6th is a steep price tag to live up to for a guy who won't be a Redskin in 2 years. I will cautiously hope for the best.

It is WAY to early to evaluate Thomas, Kelly or Davis.

yupchagee wrote:
I'd add Raymer & Koch to the list of productive 2nd rnd picks. Too soon to tell about Rocky.

Yes, agreed. Raymer was good and was an anchor on a few versions of the Hogs. But Koch was short-lived and don't recall a lot of highlights there.

fleetus wrote:What about Thomas, Davis and Kelly? These are the most relevant #2's...

The jury is still out on them but I agree that on paper they are all great picks, potential first round talent. Let's re-evaluate them after two or three seasons. The only pick I groaned on was Fred Davis. I get the best-available/high value reasoning but I'm not big on picking TEs that early and was hoping we'd draft Chad Henne at that spot. I also was hoping for Manningham who I think the Giants stole in the third round. I hope Davis surprises me and I like the trio. On paper it's a major receiver talent coup and the best drafting I've seen in years from the Skins FO.

I guess I'm trying to reconcile this move to a degree. I don't like to trade high draft picks for aging star players but it could work out well for us if Jason Taylor gives us two good years and his contributions help the team move forward. When Daniels went down, it may have forced our hand a bit. If we were going to lose Daniels though, it couldn't have happened at a better time.

yupchagee wrote:

fleetus wrote:What about Thomas, Davis and Kelly? These are the most relevant #2's because they are the only ones drafted by our current FO with Cerrato more or less running the show sans Gibbs. In many ways #2's are more valuable than #1's considering what they get paid and the lack of all the pressure to live up to that abnormally large rookie paycheck.

Taylor's success depends largely on how we defend against the run with two lightweight DE's

and/or

how we move Taylor around to create mismatches

If we just stick him in at LDE to replace Daniels, I think we'll have a better pass rush and an equal and opposite decline in run-stopping. But I'm hoping Blache is smarter than that. Still, 8+ mil/year plus a 2nd and 6th is a steep price tag to live up to for a guy who won't be a Redskin in 2 years. I will cautiously hope for the best.

It is WAY to early to evaluate Thomas, Kelly or Davis.

I'm not suggesting you decide whether they are HOFer's or not, just consider the value of those picks just a few months ago. Which would you rather have, Malcolm Kelly + Colt Brennan + about 6 million dollars (difference between their 2008 salaries) or Jason Taylor for two seasons? Makes the question a little harder to answer doesn't it?

However, I will add another positive dimension to this trade...rumors swirling that there was a three team trade in the works a few days ago where Dolphins would send Taylor to NYG, Shockey would go to the Saints and draft picks would go from Saints back to the Dolphins. Since we took Taylor off the board, NYG lost him as Strahan's replacement and had to settle for draft picks for Shockey today.

fleetus wrote:
I'm not suggesting you decide whether they are HOFer's or not, just consider the value of those picks just a few months ago. Which would you rather have, Malcolm Kelly + Colt Brennan + about 6 million dollars (difference between their 2008 salaries) or Jason Taylor for two seasons? Makes the question a little harder to answer doesn't it?

However, I will add another positive dimension to this trade...rumors swirling that there was a three team trade in the works a few days ago where Dolphins would send Taylor to NYG, Shockey would go to the Saints and draft picks would go from Saints back to the Dolphins. Since we took Taylor off the board, NYG lost him as Strahan's replacement and had to settle for draft picks for Shockey today.

Thanks for the swirling rumors intel. I think it actually makes this deal that more palatable for me thinking the Jason Taylor could be a Giant.

You can't tell what impact our #2 rookies will make at this stage but we know what Taylor can do in the NFL. Injuries are more likely now for him because of his age, but Rocky McIntosh is struggling now in spite of his youth, as is Carlos Rogers.

Love the potental of Kelly and Brennan but right now they are just names, hopefuls. I liked the Brennan pick, but he's not a protoype guy and will have to hold a clipboard for a while. It will be really interesting for all of us when we see in two years who Miami takes with those picks. If Jason Taylor gives us two good years, I'm not looking back. It doesn't mean we would have picked the same guys which is why I looked at the Skins history of Round 2 picks as a guide for evaluation. Truth is, we'll never know "what could have been" with those picks and we desperately needed DE help now.

The only thing I'm wondering is what number will Jason Taylor wear?

HanburgerHelper wrote:Truth is, we'll never know "what could have been" with those picks and we desperately needed DE help now.

The only thing I'm wondering is what number will Jason Taylor wear?

97, 98, or 99 if Carter sells it to Taylor.
Those are the only numbers available.

GSPODS wrote:

HanburgerHelper wrote:Truth is, we'll never know "what could have been" with those picks and we desperately needed DE help now.

The only thing I'm wondering is what number will Jason Taylor wear?

97, 98, or 99 if Carter sells it to Taylor.
Those are the only numbers available.

97-Kevin Huntly
98-Rob Jackson. There are NO available #'s in the 60's, 70's or 90's.

Of course they could probably be pursuaded to part with their #'s.

yupchagee wrote:

GSPODS wrote:

HanburgerHelper wrote:Truth is, we'll never know "what could have been" with those picks and we desperately needed DE help now.

The only thing I'm wondering is what number will Jason Taylor wear?

97, 98, or 99 if Carter sells it to Taylor.
Those are the only numbers available.

97-Kevin Huntly
98-Rob Jackson. There are NO available #'s in the 60's, 70's or 90's.

Of course they could probably be pursuaded to part with their #'s.

You don't seriously think Huntley and Jackson will make the final roster do you? Look at the other names. Everyone else has been with the team longer than just this off-season. 97, 98, 99. For $8.5 Million I'm sure Taylor can afford to buy 99 from Carter, if Carter is selling. And I don't think Carter makes enough to say no, for the right price.

GSPODS wrote:

yupchagee wrote:

GSPODS wrote:

HanburgerHelper wrote:Truth is, we'll never know "what could have been" with those picks and we desperately needed DE help now.

The only thing I'm wondering is what number will Jason Taylor wear?

97, 98, or 99 if Carter sells it to Taylor.
Those are the only numbers available.

97-Kevin Huntly
98-Rob Jackson. There are NO available #'s in the 60's, 70's or 90's.

Of course they could probably be pursuaded to part with their #'s.

You don't seriously think Huntley and Jackson will make the final roster do you? Look at the other names. Everyone else has been with the team longer than just this off-season. 97, 98, 99. For $8.5 Million I'm sure Taylor can afford to buy 99 from Carter, if Carter is selling. And I don't think Carter makes enough to say no, for the right price.

As I recall, Carter signed a very large contract. He doesn't need the money. No I don't seriously think Huntley or Jackson will make the 53 man roster. Jackson might make the PS, but for now they are on roster & have #'s 97 & 98. I have no doubt that they will be quite willing to sell them. They do need the money

Evaluation? Ok, then...

The bootom line is this: we just traded two future picks for a player that will most-likely won´t even be here in two years. Call me pesimistic, but you generally get more value out of a second-rounder than that.

This move, prompted by necesity, reeks of instant gratification that could have been avoided in the last draft.

Now you not only overpaid, but you also gave away a good chance to build your D-line with young talent available in the upper rounds.

Oh, and you can start pegging Taylor as locker- room distraction, considering what we saw this last offseason.

El Mexican wrote:Evaluation? Ok, then...

The bootom line is this: we just traded two future picks for a player that will most-likely won´t even be here in two years. Call me pesimistic, but you generally get more value out of a second-rounder than that.

This move, prompted by necesity, reeks of instant gratification that could have been avoided in the last draft.

Now you not only overpaid, but you also gave away a good chance to build your D-line with young talent available in the upper rounds.

Oh, and you can start pegging Taylor as locker- room distraction, considering what we saw this last offseason.

It's always so much easier when I can go ahead and write off these moves as unmitigated disasters before the season has even started, thanks for the insight.

Fios wrote:
It's always so much easier when I can go ahead and write off these moves as unmitigated disasters before the season has even started, thanks for the insight.

Oh, c'mon. This disaster was very much mitigated.
As 1NIKSDER pointed out earlier, when not only the starter, but the starter's replacement go down for the season it is time to act.
Desparate times call for desparate measures.
This was prompted by necessity, not by the Redskins former trend of spending for the sake of spending.

I haven't seen anyone name another viable option yet.
I would guess that means there wasn't one.

El Mexican wrote:Evaluation? Ok, then...

The bootom line is this: we just traded two future picks for a player that will most-likely won´t even be here in two years. Call me pesimistic, but you generally get more value out of a second-rounder than that.

This move, prompted by necesity, reeks of instant gratification that could have been avoided in the last draft.

Now you not only overpaid, but you also gave away a good chance to build your D-line with young talent available in the upper rounds.

Oh, and you can start pegging Taylor as locker- room distraction, considering what we saw this last offseason.

What locker room distraction? It was "call me God Parcells" that caused all the trouble. What's done is done. The guy is an upgrade to Daniels so the team is better off TODAY than it was yesterday.

El Mexican wrote: Call me pesimistic, but you generally get more value out of a second-rounder than that.

You're pessimistic.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

cleg wrote:

El Mexican wrote:Evaluation? Ok, then...

The bootom line is this: we just traded two future picks for a player that will most-likely won´t even be here in two years. Call me pesimistic, but you generally get more value out of a second-rounder than that.

This move, prompted by necesity, reeks of instant gratification that could have been avoided in the last draft.

Now you not only overpaid, but you also gave away a good chance to build your D-line with young talent available in the upper rounds.

Oh, and you can start pegging Taylor as locker- room distraction, considering what we saw this last offseason.

What locker room distraction? It was "call me God Parcells" that caused all the trouble. What's done is done. The guy is an upgrade to Daniels so the team is better off TODAY than it was yesterday.

I'll go so far as to guarantee he won't be a locker-room distraction.

El Mexican wrote:Evaluation? Ok, then...

The bootom line is this:

you sound canadian, rather than mexican. i think your screen name has its borders mixed up. so, tell me again what you're so up in arms 'aboot'?

Fios wrote:
I'll go so far as to guarantee he won't be a locker-room distraction.

"A guy like Jason Taylor, you have to know where he is on the field at all times," offensive lineman Jon Jansen said. "Because if you don't, your quarterback's going to get hurt."

It doesn't really sound like the Redskins think Taylor will be a distraction.
Except to every team the Redskins play this season.

GSPODS wrote:

Fios wrote:
I'll go so far as to guarantee he won't be a locker-room distraction.

"A guy like Jason Taylor, you have to know where he is on the field at all times," offensive lineman Jon Jansen said. "Because if you don't, your quarterback's going to get hurt."

It doesn't really sound like the Redskins think Taylor will be a distraction.
Except to every team the Redskins play this season.

Exactly.