The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

COMPENSATORY DRAFT PICKS: Compensation awarded by the league to teams who lost more UFAs than they signed. Compensation is in the form of extra draft picks added to the end of rounds three through seven. The quantity of picks is equivalent to the difference of UFAs signed to UFAs lost. For example, if a team loses 4 UFAs and signs 1 UFA, they will receive three Compensatory Selections. The value of the picks is determined by the difference of the contracts signed by the players lost and those acquired. The highest possible compensatory pick is the 31st of the third round (91st overall). If a team has signed an equal number or more UFAs than it lost, no "Compensatory Picks" are awarded.

jazzskins wrote:Well, now it's time to revisit this topic again. Anyone know when the picks are going to be announced? Any chance that we will get one?

Chad

die cowboys die wrote:

jazzskins wrote:Well, now it's time to revisit this topic again. Anyone know when the picks are going to be announced? Any chance that we will get one?

Chad

i'm sure the NFL will contrive some reason for us not to get any, while the patriots and the eagles will each get 11 extra 3rd round picks (as usual).

i would also like to add that if the NFL is going to be so crass and ignorant as to count sean taylor's contract against us in the salary cap, they will also have no choice but to count him as amongst the UFAs we lose when his contract expires. yet i will bet you 500 million dollars they won't even consider it.

A player signed will never cancel out a player lost whose comp value falls in a higher round. If a team loses one player with a third-round comp value and another player with a seventh-round comp value, and if the team signs a player with a fourth-round value, the player signed will cancel out the seventh-round loss, not the third-round loss.

The value of contracts used for the equation does not include any workout bonuses or incentives, any other bonuses based on reaching an incentive, or any salary escalators. However, it does appear that incentives MIGHT be included when determining whether a player qualifies for the comp equation -- ie., if the contract value is slightly too low but includes a large NLTBE incentive, the player still might qualify. But even in that case, the NLTBE wouldn't be included when determining the player's comp value.

Special-teams playing time is not a factor, other than for punters and kickers. For position players, only their playing time on offense or defense is used.

The Comp Pick list below shoold be good if my contract values are right. It will be way off if they aren't.

The key to scanning for a Comp Pick offset, if I understand Adam's explanation correctly, is that the offset must be for a lost player in the same round or lower.

For instance, the Bills loss of Nate Clements would be offset by their signing of Derrick Dockery because both those players contract values would appear to qualify for a 3rd Round pick. The Cowboys signing of Leonard Davis would offset their loss of Al Johnson (the highest ranked Cowboy loss). The Bengals signing of Eric Steinbach would offset their loss of Dennis Northcutt (the highest ranked Browns loss). The Patriots signing of Adalius Thomas would offset their loss of Daniel Graham.

So here is the full list (including offsets).

Round - Player Name - Team - Average Annual Comp
O-1 - Nate Clements - Bills 10.000 -- Offset by Derrick Dockery Redskins Bills 7.000
3-1 - Leonard Davis - Cardinals 7.086
3-2 - Eric Steinbach - Bengals 7.071
3-3 - Adalius Thomas - Ravens 7.000
3-4 - Derrick Dockery - Redskins 7.000
3-5 - Patrick Kerney - Falcons 6.107
O-2 - Daniel Graham - Patriots 6.000 -- Offset by Adalius Thomas Ravens Patriots 7.000

In 2007 the NFL awarded 4 Third Round Comp Picks. Of the highest seven contracts, two would have an offset, and therefore it would appear that either four or five qualify for a 3rd Round Comp Pick. The cut off for 3rd Round picks is a bit arbitrary, and will either be after Dockery's $7 million contract, or after Graham's $6 million contract. The contract between Dockery's and Graham's is Kerney's contract at $6.107 million. Because Kerney is going to the Pro Bowl, I imagine the NFL will push his comp pick up into the higher Round, and since Graham is one of the offsets, I believe the 4th Round comps will begin with Dewayne White. So, bottom-line 5 Third Round Comp Picks are likely this year.

4-1 - Dewayne White - Buccaneers 5.800
4-2 - Ahman Green - Packers 5.750
4-3 - Donte' Stallworth - Eagles 5.517
4-4 - Deon Grant - Jaguars 5.304
4-5 - Drew Bennett - Titans 5.000
4-6 - Langston Walker - Raiders 5.000
O-3 - London Fletcher - Bills 5.000 -- Offset by Langston Walker Bills Raiders 5.000
4-7 - Michael Lewis - Eagles 5.000

In 2007 the NFL awarded 6 Fourth Round Comp Picks. Using AdamJT13's guidelines, based on Average annual compensation there appear to be eight players who would qualify for Fourth Round awards; however, there is one offset in that group of eight. So, bottom-line I see 7 Fourth Round Comp Picks as likely this year, but only if all the $5 million contracts actually are valued that way.

O-4 - Kevin Curtis - Rams 4.850 -- Offset by Drew Bennett Titans Rams 5.000
5-1 - Tony Pashos - Ravens 4.800
O-5 - Jeff Garcia - Eagles 4.750 -- Offset by Kevin Curtis Rams Eagles 4.850
5-2 - Mike Gandy - Bills 4.667
5-3 - Donnie Edwards - Chargers 4.500
O-6 - Al Johnson - Cowboys 4.375 -- Offset by Leonard Davis Cardinals Cowboys 7.086
5-4 - Kenyon Coleman - Cowboys 4.079

In 2007 the NFL awarded 5 Fifth Round Comp Picks. Based on Average annual compensation there appear to be seven players who would qualify for Fifth Round awards, but three of those comps are offset, including Jeff Garcia.

6-1 - Dominic Rhodes - Colts 3.750
O-7 - Napoleon Harris - Vikings 3.700 -- Offset by Visanthe Shiancoe NY Giants Vikings 3.600
6-2 - Visanthe Shiancoe - NY Giants 3.600
O-8 - Jeremy Newberry - 49ers 3.500 -- Offset by Nate Clements Bills 49ers 10.000
O-9 - Dennis Northcutt - Browns 3.410 -- Offset by Robaire Smith Titans Browns 3.000
O-10 - Sean Mahan - Buccaneers 3.400 -- Offset by Jeff Garcia Eagles Buccaneers 4.750
6-3 - Nick Harper - Colts 3.133
6-4 - Cato June - Colts 3.000
O-11 - Bobby Wade - Titans 3.000 -- Offset by Nick Harper Colts Titans 3.133
6-5 - Ovie Mughelli - Ravens 3.000
6-6 - Robaire Smith - Titans 3.000
6-7 - Roderick Hood - Eagles 3.000
6-8 - Terrence Holt - Lions 3.000
6-9 - Damion McIntosh - Dolphins 3.000

The Sixth Round was the toughest one to predict, because of the seven contracts all worth $3 million annually. In 2007 the NFL awarded 4 Sixth Round Comp Picks. Without the offsets, that number would be easy to match, but four of the seven contracts over $3 million are offset. So, bottom-line I think there will be 9 Sixth Round Comp Picks, but as many as six of those could slide down into the 7th Round.

O-12 - Tully Banta-Cain - Patriots 2.925 -- Offset by Donte' Stallworth Eagles Patriots 5.517
O-13 - Antwan Peek - Texans 2.900 -- Offset by Ahman Green Packers Texans 5.750
O-14 - Brian Russell - Browns 2.700 -- Offset by Robaire Smith Titans Browns 3.000
O-15 - Kyle Brady - Jaguars 2.600 -- Offset by Tony Pashos Ravens Jaguars 4.800
O-16 - Ken Hamlin - Seahawks 02.550 -- Offset by Patrick Kerney Falcons Seahawks 6.107
7-1 - Kelley Washington - Bengals 2.500
7-2 - Kevin Kaesviharn - Bengals 2.500
7-3 - Travis Fisher - Rams 2.250
O-17 - Cooper Carlisle - Broncos 2.200 -- Offset by Daniel Graham Patriots Broncos 6.000
O-18 - Ashley Lelie - Falcons 2.150 -- Offset by Ovie Mughelli Ravens Falcons 3.000
O-19 - David Bowens - Dolphins 2.033 -- Offset by Jay Feely NY Giants Dolphins 1.467
O-20 - Eric Johnson - 49ers 2.000 -- Offset by Michael Lewis Eagles 49ers 5.000
7-4 - Aubrayo Franklin - Ravens 1.956
7-5 - Shawn Barber - Eagles 1.833
7-6 - Alfonso Boone - Bears 1.800
O-21 - Jordan Black - Chiefs 1.750 -- Offset by Napoleon Harris Vikings Chiefs 3.700
7-7 - Sammy Morris - Dolphins 1.650
O-22 - T.J. Duckett - Redskins 1.500 -- Offset by London Fletcher Bills Redskins 5.0007-8 - Jay Feely - NY Giants 1.467
7-9 - Chris Draft - Panthers 1.425

It is not clear to me how many total Comp Picks will be awarded. The uncertainty comes from how the NFL will deal with "lost picks." For this exercise I went with 34 picks total (which may prove to be too many).

My logic in choosing 34 is that the number of Comp picks has historically been set by the NFL at a level so that the total number of picks in each year's Draft comes to 255. If that is correct, the number of standard picks in a Draft is 224, but this year will only be 221 because the Patriots have lost their 1st Round pick and two other teams have forfeited picks by selecting players in the Supplemental Draft. Therefore the number of Comp picks this year should be 34. 9 Seventh Round comp picks will get us to 34. There appear to be 20 players who signed for $1.4 million per year or more.

1niksder wrote:If this guy is right, The Skins could be looking at a extra 3rd round pick this year. Meaning not having a fourth won't hurt as much.

The Washington Redskins’ new found commitment to finding talent through the draft may get a lot easier.

According to a source, very good at predicting which teams will get which compensatory picks in the upcoming NFL draft, the Redskins may receive as many as three extra selections in the April 26-27 draft. One might be a third-round pick.

skins2win wrote:

The Washington Redskins’ new found commitment to finding talent through the draft may get a lot easier.

According to a source, very good at predicting which teams will get which compensatory picks in the upcoming NFL draft, the Redskins may receive as many as three extra selections in the April 26-27 draft. One might be a third-round pick.

The official announcment is made at the owners meeting.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/11805-NFL-Washington_Redskins-Are_Extra_Picks_Headed_the_Washington_Redskins_Way_

skins2win wrote:

The Washington Redskins’ new found commitment to finding talent through the draft may get a lot easier.

According to a source, very good at predicting which teams will get which compensatory picks in the upcoming NFL draft, the Redskins may receive as many as three extra selections in the April 26-27 draft. One might be a third-round pick.

The official announcment is made at the owners meeting.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/11805-NFL-Washington_Redskins-Are_Extra_Picks_Headed_the_Washington_Redskins_Way_

Are Extra Picks Headed the Washington Redskins' Way?

The Washington Redskins’ new found commitment to finding talent through the draft may get a lot easier.

According to a source, very good at predicting which teams will get which compensatory picks in the upcoming NFL draft, the Redskins may receive as many as three extra selections in the April 26-27 draft. One might be a third-round pick.

Compensatory picks are awarded based on a complex formula devised by the NFL. Colonel Sanders did not guard his secret recipe any more closely than the NFL guards the exact formula.

We do know that it’s based on the net value of unrestricted free agents lost and free agents signed during the previous offseason. That net value is determined by three factors: the value of the contract signed, the amount of playing time the player got, and the player’s postseason awards.

So, a Pro Bowl player who signed a fat contract and started 16 games is worth more in the equation than one who signed a middling deal and spent half the year on injured reserve.

Beyond that, the details are unknown. Based off of the little that is known and extrapolating patterns from the picks awarded in the past, a few intrepid souls have cracked the code and have done a remarkable job in predicting the selections.

One of these niche within a niche experts goes by Adam, and he prefers to post the results of his research on various message boards. His forum may be unorthodox, but his accuracy is excellent when it comes to predicting the compensatory picks.

He took the facts and figures regarding Derrick Dockery, T. J. Duckett, Warrick Holdman, Kenny Wright (the qualifying free agents the Redskins lost), and London Fletcher (the sole qualifying FA the Skins signed), applied his interpretation of the formula, and came up with one compensatory pick following the third round and two more following the seventh round for the Redskins.

The three extra picks would give the Redskins nine selections in the 2008 draft. They have six of their seven original picks (the fourth round pick is going to Denver in the last installment of the Duckett trade).

Washington hasn’t had that many picks in a draft since 2002, when they had 10. Before that, you have to go back to 1993 when they also had nine (in an eight-round draft).

A team can’t trade a compensatory pick, but having some can make it easier to deal off some of your original selections. Vinny Cerrato has indicated that the team would like to hold on to all of its picks but this would give them some flexibility should a beneficial opportunity come along.

The official announcement of the compensatory picks will be made at the owners’ meeting in late March.

1niksder wrote:9 PICKS.....no way they keep them all

SkinsJock wrote:We need Snyder to get better advice - this ability seems to have evaded Cerrato - he's like a lot of the players he brings in here - he was good before he came here and not worth much since he got here

SkinsFreak wrote:

1niksder wrote:9 PICKS.....no way they keep them all

I don't think I'd be in favor of trading any picks for players in free agency. But I'd actually be okay with packaging a few picks to move up in the draft. I don't believe 9 players will make the final roster anyway. If I remember correctly, and sometimes I do 'misremember', they made a move to go up and grab ey in the 3rd round, which turned out to be a brilliant move. If they did something like that this year, I'd support that move.

If it were me, I'd grab a WR in the 1st, a DE in the 2nd, and possibly try to trade up to grab a solid corner in the late 2nd or early 3rd. The draft is deep this year with DE's and CB's and a team can get quality players with 1st day picks. With whatever picks were remaining, I'd look to grab an OG, DT and perhaps a S. That would be a solid draft in my opinion. Not saying it will absolutely happen or they'd take those players in that order, but an attempt to move up in some fashion would be alright.

SkinsFreak wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:We need Snyder to get better advice - this ability seems to have evaded Cerrato - he's like a lot of the players he brings in here - he was good before he came here and not worth much since he got here

I agree, of course with the exception of starters like:

Fletcher
Washington
Albright
Carter
Thrash
Springs
Smoot
Thomas
Sellers
Moss
Portis
ARE
Rabach
Kendall

... because those guys have been pretty solid. And those are just the FA's.

Some of our draft picks over the past decade have been pretty damn good as well.