Draftsharks 2006 First Round Bust Candidate
Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2006 7:41 pm
This is an article written at Draftsharks, it's one of those sites that you pay to join and rank players for fantasy football fans. It is a very good (as much as any site can be) site that I use for my fantasy football insight. This article has me asking questions not about Clinton so much but about our offensive line...tell me I don't have to worry so much....please. Anyways here is the article I could post a link but as I said you need to pay for this site to read any of the articles.
2006 First-Round Bust Candidate
Possibly the toughest Bust call our staff has ever faced because we love the guy. We’re selecting Clinton Portis as our 2006 First-Round Bust Candidate. There's a criteria of downside factors we use when assessing busts and Portis qualified in nearly every category. It’s ironic because we ranked him higher than anyone last year (#4) even though he was coming off a sub-par season as the 12th ranked RB. Portis delivered with a #6 ranking, so the love is there. But our job is to be objective and ignore not only our feelings for a player, but the consensus opinions too. Over 85% of the fantasy community is selecting Portis with the 4th or 5th pick of the draft… We say that’s not your best move.
The Mileage… is the first thing we noticed. ESPN’s Sean Salisbury spends his afternoons blowing hot air about Terrell Owens’ “punk attitude” or Peyton Manning’s “failure to win big games” but last week he said something that caught our attention. “With running backs it’s not so much about age breaking them down, it’s their mileage,” he said. “In some cases an 8-year old car with 90,000 miles is more reliable than a 4 year-old car with 90,000 miles. Different backs carry their mileage differently.” In other words, you don’t have to be a 30-year old back to start experiencing ups and downs in production. Some of the best backs were spinning the odometer too much in their early years, and for whatever reason they couldn’t sustain the pace. Not everyone can be a Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, or Curtis Martin – even though many, like Portis, are just as talented. Here are a few examples of great young backs who hit a down cycle early:
RB Early yrs Tot. touch Avg/rush TDs/game Next yr Avg/rush TDs/game
Earl Campbell 78-81 1479 4.6 1.03 82 3.4 0.22
Ottis Anderson 79-82 1247 4.5 0.55 83 4.3 0.33
Curt Warner 83-88 1625 4.2 0.75 89 3.3 0.19
Terrell Davis 95-98 1495 4.8 1.00 99 3.1 0.50
Eddie George 96-00 1927 3.9 0.63 01 3.0 0.32
Warrick Dunn 97-00 1103 4.1 0.32 01 2.8 0.46
Clinton Portis 02-05 1399 4.7 0.82 06 ? ?
Look, it’s easy to cherry-pick a few backs that hit some bumps in the road or fizzled entirely. We know that. The point is, they’re out there. Studs can’t be studs every single season of their career. Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Stephen Davis, Ahman Green, and even Edgerrin James had ups and downs way before they were 30. And only 5 RBs were able to repeat their top-10 ranking from 2004 to 2005. Think about that…
Portis actually beefed up to 215 (from 205) for most of the season to adjust to Joe Gibbs’ counter-treys and off-tackle runs. He was pretty amazing, gaining 1,516 yards despite a big list of injuries: elbow bursitis, strained calf, bruised shin, minor concussion, bruised lower back, sprained wrist & shoulder stinger. We counted 7 different games where Portis spent time with trainer Bubba Tyer on the sidelines. “He got beat up,” Tyer said in December. After the playoff loss to Seattle, Tyer added that Portis “might require some attention” from doctors, though he never actually had any surgery.
Mileage is mileage, and Portis racked up a career-high 418 touches last season including the playoffs. We ran some numbers: Since 1996, RBs coming off 400-touch seasons only make the fantasy top-10 the next year 53% of the time. Portis actually has 801 total touches the last two years - a really big workload. Did you see him constantly wincing in those two playoff games while limping to 2.8 yards per carry? Heroic, but mileage realized…
The New System… is a great one, but it’s still brand new. First let’s give Redskins owner Daniel Snyder credit for bringing in ex-Chiefs OC Al Saunders. His track record couldn’t be any better: he managed the league’s #1 offense in 2004 & 2005 and the Chiefs never ranked lower than 5th during his tenure. Houston, Detroit, Oakland, and Buffalo (and probably a few other teams) were after Saunders but Joe Gibbs took Snyder’s private jet to Kansas City armed with a contract guaranteed for over $6 million. Saunders’ Vermeilesque playbook is the most RB-friendly in the league. The first thing he did was sit Portis down and show him a highlight DVD featuring his last 3 pupils – Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, and Larry Johnson. “I remember saying this is the (expletive) I've been waiting for," said Portis. “Now I've got the golden opportunity. For two years, I had the opportunity of getting pounded. Pounded here and pounded there. But I found a way out of that and I have the opportunity of my career.”
However, it’s still a new system. Sometimes fantasy GMs are quick to latch onto new coordinators’ histories and automatically re-apply past successes in year #1. Then the next year we read about how the offensive line “is much more comfortable with the scheme” or how the quarterback “knows what to expect this season.” And make no mistake, the offensive line and the quarterback pay off Saunders’ bets. This playbook’s not driven by halfbacks, it just rewards them on execution.
The O-Line/Quarterback… has question marks that no one wants to talk about. Even if Brunell & Co. absorb Saunders’ brand new plays quickly, can they execute and sustain at a high level? Brunell isn’t Trent Green. Green’s hit 64% of his passes the last 3 years with up-tempo rhythm and line adjustments on the go. He operates like a surgeon. And he’s started every game the last 5 years. Only 3 other QBs have done that and none of them were coming off ACL surgery like Green had in 1999. Brunell also had ACL surgery (in ’97) and he’s been an injury magnet ever since: left elbow surgery, partially-torn hamstring, strained quad, last year’s sprained MCL (same right knee as ’97) and the broken left index finger two months ago. The pre-ACL Brunell was a major dual threat at QB. Now he’s a gimpy, streaky passer who rides the wave nicely when everyone around him is clicking. Portis and the linemen were all wrecked by the postseason and Brunell passed for only 130 yards in almost two full playoff games before Seattle relaxed in the 4th quarter. Note: Saunders will also cut back Brunell’s comfy shotgun and max-protect schemes and use more 3-step drops with multi-WR sets.
The Redskins offensive line doesn’t remind anybody of the Chiefs’ Willie Roaf, Brian Waters, Casey Wiegmann and Will Shields. Not even close in productivity, durability, mobility or depth. This is the key to Portis’ season. If the Hogs are chugging along then so will Portis, even if (gulp) Todd Collins or (double gulp) Jason Campbell is under center. But if they don’t execute these mobile zone-blocking schemes the holes won’t be there. “I do have my reservations about this [Redskins] line fitting the blueprint,” said FOX’s Brian Baldinger, who played all three o-line positions in his 12-year career.
Also 4 of the 5 starters have had surgery since Christmas. C Casey Rabach had a torn labrum repaired. Rabach also crashed his ATV and needed surgery for huge lacerations on his left calf and ankle. He missed minicamps. “Casey wanted to do some things,” said Joe Gibbs. “Our problem is that he is real tender there where he had the skin graft.” LT Chris Samuels had procedures on his right MCL and elbow. His play really improved last year but he still gets pushed around late in games. Just two years ago Samuels was named to Sporting News’ “All-Overrated Team.” RT Jon Jansen is a tremendous run-blocker, we saw him absolutely flatten Cardinals DE Chike Okeafor on a 15-yard Portis TD run last year. But Jansen had his 2nd thumb stabilization surgery and will wear a special brace in '06. He also tore his Achilles’ tendon in 2004. RG Randy Thomas had surgery on a nasty broken leg in December and was limited in minicamps. We’d feel better about him if he broke it in September. Finally, we heard whispers that LG Derrick Dockery reported "grossly overweight" to minicamps. Dockery’s already the weak link and he’s asked to replicate Chiefs LG Waters, a guy who hasn’t missed a game in 5 years and is one of the best pulling guards of the decade.
O-line depth? None. Washington didn’t draft a lineman until the 7th round. They cut key reserve G/C Cory Raymer and signed Cowboys G/C Tyson Walter, but Walter has a high ankle sprain and didn’t do anything in OTA’s. “Depth is a big concern for us right now,” said Redskins OL coach Joe Bugel. “But we’ve got some young guys.” Young guys that hopefully won’t be called upon. That $11 million guaranteed payout for WR Antwaan Randle-El looks dumber every time we see it. Free-agent Pro Bowl LG Steve Hutchinson could have been had for $16 million up front.
The Other Guy… is Ladell Betts. He’s going to play more in ’06. "He's a three-dimensional player," said Saunders. "He runs the ball, he can catch it and he can block well enough to be successful. Having somebody like Ladell has been a surprise because I knew he was good, but not this good. We'll have situations where Ladell and Clinton will be in the game at the same time. Ladell deserves to play and we've got to find a way to get him on the field and not just as a backup player to Clinton." Betts has injury problems but there’s no question he’s a Moe Williams-type who could quietly chip stats off Portis’ week-to-week tally. In the only 4 career games Betts has carried 17+ times he's averaged 5 yards per attempt. After 4 years he’s learned how to pick up the blitz, and his career 4.0 per rush/9.8 per catch is impressive.
Look closely at our top-10 RB projections. None of them have a legitimate threat to steal touches this year. From Larry Johnson down to Willis McGahee, there’s no significant vulture factor expect maybe Brandon Jacobs with the Giants (though Tiki Barber plays all 3rd down packages to compensate). Sure, all lead backs have relievers to keep them fresh, but we don’t hear any other coordinators touting them. Saunders said Betts was “not just a backup player to Clinton.” Has Mike Mularkey gushed over Sammy Morris? Tom Walsh isn’t singing about Justin Fargas.
Don’t forget H-back Mike Sellers, he's sure to steal short TDs as well. Sellers is an especially damaging fantasy factor. The 275-pounder got 8 touches inside the 5-yard line last year and scored on 6 of them. Hopefully Saunders will put him on the shelf, but then again, Saunders never had a special resource like this: Sellers’ massive frame and quick feet make him useful near the goal line. Coaches like keeping $50 million dollar backs like Portis fresh if it’s convenient to the offense. Big physical backs like Betts and Sellers offer that convenience.
The Schedule… is a little harder in 2006. Last year they played 10 games against opponents that ended up ranking in the bottom half for rushing TDs allowed. Portis started a little slow, finally scoring his first TDs against the 49ers in the 6th game. In fact, 6 of his 11 TD runs came against the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals. This year Portis draws the 10th toughest fantasy RB schedule for weeks 1-13. We like his opponents in weeks 15/16, the Saints and Rams, but will he be in one piece?
The Weight Issue… needs to be mentioned as well. As we said earlier, Portis gained about 10 lbs last year to adjust to Gibbs’ gap-scheme rushes. Kudos to Portis, he held up pretty well in the regular season despite his carries going up for the 3rd straight season. Now he’s going back to his lighter Broncos frame because Saunders wants more big play rushes out of his halfbacks. Portis only had 6 runs of 20+ yards last season compared to 13 for Denver in 2003 as a 202-pounder. We like the thicker version better. The injuries were worse when he was thinner: torn pectoral muscle, bruised heel, bruised ribs, hyper-extended knee, sprained ankles. He's not a rugged back, which is probably one of the reasons Mike Shanahan traded him (and why Tatum Bell doesn't get more carries). And besides, most elite tailbacks don't swing their weight index back and forth like this. Tiki Barber bulked up a few years ago and stayed there. L.T. and Shaun Alexander have never adapted their frames to mesh with a system.
The 4th Pick… of 2006 Fantasy Football has never looked so tricky to us. After the Big Three (Johnson, Alexander, Tomlinson) there’s likely a large drop in production. We understand why Portis is the herd’s choice to go #4. He’s much younger than Barber and looks sexier on paper than LaMont Jordan. Rudi Johnson is tough to pick because of Carson Palmer’s knee. Edgerrin James’ new red jersey (and fat wallet) scares others off.
Everyone appreciates this flashy ex-Hurricane. Last year he was terrific. With a few more 1,000-yard seasons and a Super Bowl ring they might actually whisper “HOF” when talking about him. Portis’ career is far from over. But think about all these potential downside factors in 2006 and make a careful, forward-looking decision.
Good luck!
Coming Aug. 2nd: We’ll post 4 more high-priced Bust picks with analysis...
2006 First-Round Bust Candidate
Possibly the toughest Bust call our staff has ever faced because we love the guy. We’re selecting Clinton Portis as our 2006 First-Round Bust Candidate. There's a criteria of downside factors we use when assessing busts and Portis qualified in nearly every category. It’s ironic because we ranked him higher than anyone last year (#4) even though he was coming off a sub-par season as the 12th ranked RB. Portis delivered with a #6 ranking, so the love is there. But our job is to be objective and ignore not only our feelings for a player, but the consensus opinions too. Over 85% of the fantasy community is selecting Portis with the 4th or 5th pick of the draft… We say that’s not your best move.
The Mileage… is the first thing we noticed. ESPN’s Sean Salisbury spends his afternoons blowing hot air about Terrell Owens’ “punk attitude” or Peyton Manning’s “failure to win big games” but last week he said something that caught our attention. “With running backs it’s not so much about age breaking them down, it’s their mileage,” he said. “In some cases an 8-year old car with 90,000 miles is more reliable than a 4 year-old car with 90,000 miles. Different backs carry their mileage differently.” In other words, you don’t have to be a 30-year old back to start experiencing ups and downs in production. Some of the best backs were spinning the odometer too much in their early years, and for whatever reason they couldn’t sustain the pace. Not everyone can be a Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, or Curtis Martin – even though many, like Portis, are just as talented. Here are a few examples of great young backs who hit a down cycle early:
RB Early yrs Tot. touch Avg/rush TDs/game Next yr Avg/rush TDs/game
Earl Campbell 78-81 1479 4.6 1.03 82 3.4 0.22
Ottis Anderson 79-82 1247 4.5 0.55 83 4.3 0.33
Curt Warner 83-88 1625 4.2 0.75 89 3.3 0.19
Terrell Davis 95-98 1495 4.8 1.00 99 3.1 0.50
Eddie George 96-00 1927 3.9 0.63 01 3.0 0.32
Warrick Dunn 97-00 1103 4.1 0.32 01 2.8 0.46
Clinton Portis 02-05 1399 4.7 0.82 06 ? ?
Look, it’s easy to cherry-pick a few backs that hit some bumps in the road or fizzled entirely. We know that. The point is, they’re out there. Studs can’t be studs every single season of their career. Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Stephen Davis, Ahman Green, and even Edgerrin James had ups and downs way before they were 30. And only 5 RBs were able to repeat their top-10 ranking from 2004 to 2005. Think about that…
Portis actually beefed up to 215 (from 205) for most of the season to adjust to Joe Gibbs’ counter-treys and off-tackle runs. He was pretty amazing, gaining 1,516 yards despite a big list of injuries: elbow bursitis, strained calf, bruised shin, minor concussion, bruised lower back, sprained wrist & shoulder stinger. We counted 7 different games where Portis spent time with trainer Bubba Tyer on the sidelines. “He got beat up,” Tyer said in December. After the playoff loss to Seattle, Tyer added that Portis “might require some attention” from doctors, though he never actually had any surgery.
Mileage is mileage, and Portis racked up a career-high 418 touches last season including the playoffs. We ran some numbers: Since 1996, RBs coming off 400-touch seasons only make the fantasy top-10 the next year 53% of the time. Portis actually has 801 total touches the last two years - a really big workload. Did you see him constantly wincing in those two playoff games while limping to 2.8 yards per carry? Heroic, but mileage realized…
The New System… is a great one, but it’s still brand new. First let’s give Redskins owner Daniel Snyder credit for bringing in ex-Chiefs OC Al Saunders. His track record couldn’t be any better: he managed the league’s #1 offense in 2004 & 2005 and the Chiefs never ranked lower than 5th during his tenure. Houston, Detroit, Oakland, and Buffalo (and probably a few other teams) were after Saunders but Joe Gibbs took Snyder’s private jet to Kansas City armed with a contract guaranteed for over $6 million. Saunders’ Vermeilesque playbook is the most RB-friendly in the league. The first thing he did was sit Portis down and show him a highlight DVD featuring his last 3 pupils – Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, and Larry Johnson. “I remember saying this is the (expletive) I've been waiting for," said Portis. “Now I've got the golden opportunity. For two years, I had the opportunity of getting pounded. Pounded here and pounded there. But I found a way out of that and I have the opportunity of my career.”
However, it’s still a new system. Sometimes fantasy GMs are quick to latch onto new coordinators’ histories and automatically re-apply past successes in year #1. Then the next year we read about how the offensive line “is much more comfortable with the scheme” or how the quarterback “knows what to expect this season.” And make no mistake, the offensive line and the quarterback pay off Saunders’ bets. This playbook’s not driven by halfbacks, it just rewards them on execution.
The O-Line/Quarterback… has question marks that no one wants to talk about. Even if Brunell & Co. absorb Saunders’ brand new plays quickly, can they execute and sustain at a high level? Brunell isn’t Trent Green. Green’s hit 64% of his passes the last 3 years with up-tempo rhythm and line adjustments on the go. He operates like a surgeon. And he’s started every game the last 5 years. Only 3 other QBs have done that and none of them were coming off ACL surgery like Green had in 1999. Brunell also had ACL surgery (in ’97) and he’s been an injury magnet ever since: left elbow surgery, partially-torn hamstring, strained quad, last year’s sprained MCL (same right knee as ’97) and the broken left index finger two months ago. The pre-ACL Brunell was a major dual threat at QB. Now he’s a gimpy, streaky passer who rides the wave nicely when everyone around him is clicking. Portis and the linemen were all wrecked by the postseason and Brunell passed for only 130 yards in almost two full playoff games before Seattle relaxed in the 4th quarter. Note: Saunders will also cut back Brunell’s comfy shotgun and max-protect schemes and use more 3-step drops with multi-WR sets.
The Redskins offensive line doesn’t remind anybody of the Chiefs’ Willie Roaf, Brian Waters, Casey Wiegmann and Will Shields. Not even close in productivity, durability, mobility or depth. This is the key to Portis’ season. If the Hogs are chugging along then so will Portis, even if (gulp) Todd Collins or (double gulp) Jason Campbell is under center. But if they don’t execute these mobile zone-blocking schemes the holes won’t be there. “I do have my reservations about this [Redskins] line fitting the blueprint,” said FOX’s Brian Baldinger, who played all three o-line positions in his 12-year career.
Also 4 of the 5 starters have had surgery since Christmas. C Casey Rabach had a torn labrum repaired. Rabach also crashed his ATV and needed surgery for huge lacerations on his left calf and ankle. He missed minicamps. “Casey wanted to do some things,” said Joe Gibbs. “Our problem is that he is real tender there where he had the skin graft.” LT Chris Samuels had procedures on his right MCL and elbow. His play really improved last year but he still gets pushed around late in games. Just two years ago Samuels was named to Sporting News’ “All-Overrated Team.” RT Jon Jansen is a tremendous run-blocker, we saw him absolutely flatten Cardinals DE Chike Okeafor on a 15-yard Portis TD run last year. But Jansen had his 2nd thumb stabilization surgery and will wear a special brace in '06. He also tore his Achilles’ tendon in 2004. RG Randy Thomas had surgery on a nasty broken leg in December and was limited in minicamps. We’d feel better about him if he broke it in September. Finally, we heard whispers that LG Derrick Dockery reported "grossly overweight" to minicamps. Dockery’s already the weak link and he’s asked to replicate Chiefs LG Waters, a guy who hasn’t missed a game in 5 years and is one of the best pulling guards of the decade.
O-line depth? None. Washington didn’t draft a lineman until the 7th round. They cut key reserve G/C Cory Raymer and signed Cowboys G/C Tyson Walter, but Walter has a high ankle sprain and didn’t do anything in OTA’s. “Depth is a big concern for us right now,” said Redskins OL coach Joe Bugel. “But we’ve got some young guys.” Young guys that hopefully won’t be called upon. That $11 million guaranteed payout for WR Antwaan Randle-El looks dumber every time we see it. Free-agent Pro Bowl LG Steve Hutchinson could have been had for $16 million up front.
The Other Guy… is Ladell Betts. He’s going to play more in ’06. "He's a three-dimensional player," said Saunders. "He runs the ball, he can catch it and he can block well enough to be successful. Having somebody like Ladell has been a surprise because I knew he was good, but not this good. We'll have situations where Ladell and Clinton will be in the game at the same time. Ladell deserves to play and we've got to find a way to get him on the field and not just as a backup player to Clinton." Betts has injury problems but there’s no question he’s a Moe Williams-type who could quietly chip stats off Portis’ week-to-week tally. In the only 4 career games Betts has carried 17+ times he's averaged 5 yards per attempt. After 4 years he’s learned how to pick up the blitz, and his career 4.0 per rush/9.8 per catch is impressive.
Look closely at our top-10 RB projections. None of them have a legitimate threat to steal touches this year. From Larry Johnson down to Willis McGahee, there’s no significant vulture factor expect maybe Brandon Jacobs with the Giants (though Tiki Barber plays all 3rd down packages to compensate). Sure, all lead backs have relievers to keep them fresh, but we don’t hear any other coordinators touting them. Saunders said Betts was “not just a backup player to Clinton.” Has Mike Mularkey gushed over Sammy Morris? Tom Walsh isn’t singing about Justin Fargas.
Don’t forget H-back Mike Sellers, he's sure to steal short TDs as well. Sellers is an especially damaging fantasy factor. The 275-pounder got 8 touches inside the 5-yard line last year and scored on 6 of them. Hopefully Saunders will put him on the shelf, but then again, Saunders never had a special resource like this: Sellers’ massive frame and quick feet make him useful near the goal line. Coaches like keeping $50 million dollar backs like Portis fresh if it’s convenient to the offense. Big physical backs like Betts and Sellers offer that convenience.
The Schedule… is a little harder in 2006. Last year they played 10 games against opponents that ended up ranking in the bottom half for rushing TDs allowed. Portis started a little slow, finally scoring his first TDs against the 49ers in the 6th game. In fact, 6 of his 11 TD runs came against the 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals. This year Portis draws the 10th toughest fantasy RB schedule for weeks 1-13. We like his opponents in weeks 15/16, the Saints and Rams, but will he be in one piece?
The Weight Issue… needs to be mentioned as well. As we said earlier, Portis gained about 10 lbs last year to adjust to Gibbs’ gap-scheme rushes. Kudos to Portis, he held up pretty well in the regular season despite his carries going up for the 3rd straight season. Now he’s going back to his lighter Broncos frame because Saunders wants more big play rushes out of his halfbacks. Portis only had 6 runs of 20+ yards last season compared to 13 for Denver in 2003 as a 202-pounder. We like the thicker version better. The injuries were worse when he was thinner: torn pectoral muscle, bruised heel, bruised ribs, hyper-extended knee, sprained ankles. He's not a rugged back, which is probably one of the reasons Mike Shanahan traded him (and why Tatum Bell doesn't get more carries). And besides, most elite tailbacks don't swing their weight index back and forth like this. Tiki Barber bulked up a few years ago and stayed there. L.T. and Shaun Alexander have never adapted their frames to mesh with a system.
The 4th Pick… of 2006 Fantasy Football has never looked so tricky to us. After the Big Three (Johnson, Alexander, Tomlinson) there’s likely a large drop in production. We understand why Portis is the herd’s choice to go #4. He’s much younger than Barber and looks sexier on paper than LaMont Jordan. Rudi Johnson is tough to pick because of Carson Palmer’s knee. Edgerrin James’ new red jersey (and fat wallet) scares others off.
Everyone appreciates this flashy ex-Hurricane. Last year he was terrific. With a few more 1,000-yard seasons and a Super Bowl ring they might actually whisper “HOF” when talking about him. Portis’ career is far from over. But think about all these potential downside factors in 2006 and make a careful, forward-looking decision.
Good luck!
Coming Aug. 2nd: We’ll post 4 more high-priced Bust picks with analysis...
